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NBA Grind Down: Wednesday, October 28 - Page Two

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2015-10-28 22:05:37

Indiana at Toronto – 07:30 PM

Indiana
indiananba Vegas Total 197
Vegas Sprd 5.5
Team Proj. 96.0
Team Pace 95.50
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter George Hill Monta Ellis C.J. Miles Paul George Ian Mahinmi
Opp. Season 23 14 22 10 13
Toronto
torontonba Vegas Total 197
Vegas Sprd -5.5
Team Proj. 101.5
Team Pace 95.40
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter Kyle Lowry DeMar DeRozan DeMarre Carroll Luis Scola Jonas Valanciunas
Opp. Season 7 23 3 2 11

Indiana

The Pacers are looking to rebound after a very disappointing 2014-15 campaign. After being one of the best teams in the Eastern Conference for years, they missed the playoffs completely last season. A healthy Paul George should go a long way in helping them get back on track, as will the acquisition of Monta Ellis. Ellis did undergo knee surgery in the offseason, but he is expected to start tonight against the Raptors. The Pacers did lose Roy Hibbert to the Lakers, but if you ask most people in Indiana, they would probably tell you that this was an addition by subtraction after his play the last year and a half.

Toronto Raptors Defense (2014-15)

Points Allowed Per Game: 100.9 (18 of 32)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.8 (23 of 32)
Rebounding Differential: -1.0 (21 of 32)
Fantasy Points Allowed per Game: 197.3 (17 of 32)

For a large part of last season, the Raptors were thought of as one of the top defenses in the NBA. However, the numbers didn’t bear that out, as they were ranked below the league average in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, rebounding differential, and fantasy points allowed per game. The Pacers may not have the highest team total tonight, but it’s not the lowest either at 96.0 points.

As for the fantasy breakdown for the Pacers, I am going to take a wait and see approach here in the first few games. This is obviously Paul George team now, but it will be an adjustment for him to start at power forward. He is a borderline elite play right out of the gate, but I may look elsewhere at small forward tonight. We should also keep our eye on the backcourt combo of George Hill and Monta Ellis. Ellis is a scorer by nature, but he typically dominates touches offensively, which can hurt his point guard’s fantasy appeal.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Paul George

FD: $8,500 — DK: $8,000
Min/Game: 15.0 — Usage: 32.7
FD FP/Min: 0.98 — DK FP/Min: 1.11

C.J. Miles

FD: $4,900 — DK: $3,500
Min/Game: 26.0 — Usage: 23.5
FD FP/Min: 0.77 — DK FP/Min: 0.84

Toronto

The Raptors just can’t seem to get out of the first round of the playoffs. They return a similar cast of characters this season with two major exceptions. They signed DeMarre Carroll in the offseason, which should be a boost to their plays on both sides of the floor. They did lose Amir Johnson, but Patrick Patterson has shown that he is capable of being a starting power forward. He is also a better fit for frontcourt-mate Jonas Valanciunas, as he can stretch the floor better than Johnson could.

Indiana Pacers Defense (2014-15)

Points Allowed Per Game: 97.0 (3 of 32)
Defensive Efficiency: 100.9 (8 of 32)
Rebounding Differential: 2.2 (6 of 32)
Fantasy Points Allowed per Game: 190.5 (5 of 32)

The Pacers have always been a defensive-minded team under Frank Vogel and there is no reason to think that it will change this season. Last year, the Pacers were ranked eighth or better in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, rebounding differential, and fantasy points allowed per game. This is a poor matchup for the Raptors as a whole, especially if the Pacers are going to employ a similar pace of play this season. Kyle Lowry and company will certainly be nice plays moving forward, but I am going to pass on the Raptors tonight in this tough matchup.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Patrick Patterson

FD: $4,400 — DK: $4,300
Min/Game: 27.0 — Usage: 13.0
FD FP/Min: 0.71 — DK FP/Min: 0.76

New York at Milwaukee – 08:00 PM

New York
newyorknba Vegas Total 192
Vegas Sprd 6.0
Team Proj. 93.3
Team Pace 93.67
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter Jose Calderon Langston Galloway Carmelo Anthony Kristaps Porzingis Robin Lopez
Opp. Season 1 8 21 16 15
Milwaukee
milwaukeenba Vegas Total 192
Vegas Sprd -6.0
Team Proj. 99.3
Team Pace 96.50
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter Jerryd Bayless Khris Middleton Damien Inglis Chris Copeland Greg Monroe
Opp. Season 26 25 2 5 24

New York

The Knicks are hoping to get back into the Eastern Conference playoff mix this season, but it doesn’t look too promising. Outside of Carmelo Anthony, the rest of the starting lineup would be fringe starters on most NBA franchises. The Knicks do have some hope in Kristaps Porzingis though. Not only did he have amazing corn rows as a kid, but he has a lot of potential moving forward. The Knicks added Robin Lopez and Arron Afflalo in the offseason, but Afflalo will be out tonight with a hamstring injury.

Milwaukee Bucks Defense (2014-15)

Points Allowed Per Game: 97.4 (8 of 32)
Defensive Efficiency: 99.3 (2 of 32)
Rebounding Differential: -0.8 (19 of 32)
Fantasy Points Allowed per Game: 193.8 (8 of 32)

The good news is that the Knicks don’t have the lowest implied team total tonight. The bad news is that they aren’t far behind the Cavaliers in that respect. New York draws a tough matchup against the Bucks, who were ranked eighth or better in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game last season. The Bucks are a very tall, athletic team that is full of great defenders. Carmelo Anthony is the only fantasy option of note in this one and given the difficult matchup, he is a secondary option tonight.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Carmelo Anthony

FD: $9,400 — DK: $8,600
Min/Game: 36.0 — Usage: 32.4
FD FP/Min: 1.04 — DK FP/Min: 1.10

Milwaukee

The Bucks are a young team with a bright future. Their biggest weakness last season was the center position and they solved that problem by signing Greg Monroe. I’m excited to see this Bucks’ team in action, although they will be without two of their starters on opening night. Jabari Parker isn’t set to return until November and Giannis Antetokounmpo is suspended for tonight’s game against the Knicks.

New York Knicks Defense (2014-15)

Points Allowed Per Game: 101.2 (21 of 32)
Defensive Efficiency: 107.2 (28 of 32)
Rebounding Differential: -3.1 (28 of 32)
Fantasy Points Allowed per Game: 196.9 (16 of 32)

The Bucks draw a favorable matchup tonight against the Knicks, who were ranked below the league average in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, rebounding differential, and fantasy points allowed last season. The Knicks were plagued with injuries last season, but I don’t see them anywhere close to being an elite defense this year. The Bucks have an implied team total of 99.25 points, which is slightly below the average of all of the teams playing tonight.

With Giannis Antetokounmpo and Jabari Parker out, Khris Middleton appears to be an excellent play tonight. He is coming off of a career year, especially on the offensive side of the floor. He should be heavily involved in the offense and he will see all of the minutes that he can handle. Greg Monroe is also an intriguing play at center, although Robin Lopez has always been a good low post defender. Michael Carter-Williams is a stat-stuffing machine, but he is going to be asked to do less in Milwaukee than he did in his time in Philadelphia.

Elite Plays

Khris Middleton

FD: $6,100 — DK: $5,400
Min/Game: 30.0 — Usage: 19.8
FD FP/Min: 0.80 — DK FP/Min: 0.86

Secondary Plays

Greg Monroe

FD: $8,000 — DK: $7,100
Min/Game: 31.0 — Usage: 23.8
FD FP/Min: 1.04 — DK FP/Min: 1.12

Michael Carter-Williams

FD: $6,800 — DK: $6,800
Min/Game: 33.0 — Usage: 26.8
FD FP/Min: 0.95 — DK FP/Min: 1.03

San Antonio at Oklahoma City – 08:00 PM

San Antonio
sanantonionba Vegas Total 207
Vegas Sprd 4.5
Team Proj. 101.5
Team Pace 95.93
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter Tony Parker Danny Green Kawhi Leonard LaMarcus Aldridge Tim Duncan
Opp. Season 25 13 18 23 4
Oklahoma City
oklahomacitynba Vegas Total 207
Vegas Sprd -4.5
Team Proj. 106.0
Team Pace 98.35
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter Russell Westbrook Andre Roberson Kevin Durant Serge Ibaka Steven Adams
Opp. Season 12 1 1 26 12

San Antonio

The Spurs were unable to defend their title last season, but after adding LaMarcus Aldridge, they should be considered one of the favorites to come out of the Western Conference. Tim Duncan will slide over and start at center, with Tony Parker, Danny Green, and Kawhi Leonard rounding out the starting lineup.

Oklahoma City Thunder Defense (2014-15)

Points Allowed Per Game: 101.8 (24 of 32)
Defensive Efficiency: 103.1 (16 of 32)
Rebounding Differential: 4.8 (1 of 32)
Fantasy Points Allowed per Game: 198.2 (19 of 32)

On paper, the Spurs draw a favorable matchup against the Thunder, who were ranked 24th in points allowed per game last season. The Thunder played at such a quick pace that it really benefitted any team on their schedule in terms of fantasy production. The Thunder led the NBA in rebounding differential though, grabbing almost five more rebounds per game than their opponents. The Spurs are small underdogs in this matchup, but they have a high implied team total of 101.5 points.

The Spurs are one of the more balanced teams in the NBA, especially now that LaMarcus Aldridge is in the mix. We should see a steady decline in production from Tim Duncan and Kawhi Leonard may be asked to do a little less offensively this season. It’s always difficult to list any Spurs’ players as elite fantasy options with Greg Popovich calling the shots. This is definitely a nice matchup, but I see the Spurs as secondary plays tonight in Oklahoma City.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

LaMarcus Aldridge

FD: $8,700 — DK: $8,100
Min/Game: 35.0 — Usage: 30.0
FD FP/Min: 1.14 — DK FP/Min: 1.21

Kawhi Leonard

FD: $7,800 — DK: $7,400
Min/Game: 32.0 — Usage: 23.1
FD FP/Min: 1.05 — DK FP/Min: 1.11

Oklahoma City

The Thunder have Kevin Durant back this season, which immediately makes them one of the favorites to come out of the Western Conference. If you remember, they traded for Enes Kanter last season and he immediately become a top fantasy option at the center position. The Thunder’s only weakness is at shooting guard, but with two of the best offensive players in the NBA, they don’t really need much production from Andre Roberson.

San Antonio Spurs Defense (2014-15)

Points Allowed Per Game: 97.0 (3 of 32)
Defensive Efficiency: 99.6 (3 of 32)
Rebounding Differential: 1.5 (9 of 32)
Fantasy Points Allowed per Game: 190.9 (6 of 32)

This is one of the most interesting matchups on the schedule tonight. On the one hand, this does not appear to be a favorable matchup, as the Spurs were ranked ninth or better in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, rebounding differential, and fantasy points allowed per game last season. On the other hand, the Thunder have a generous implied team total of 106.0 points, which is the third highest on the schedule tonight. While the high total does draw me in, Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant both seem a bit overpriced for their matchups. The same can be said for Serge Ibaka and Enes Kanter, as both players will likely have smaller roles in the offense now that Durant is healthy.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Russell Westbrook

FD: $10,800 — DK: $9,900
Min/Game: 34.0 — Usage: 37.2
FD FP/Min: 1.47 — DK FP/Min: 1.60

Kevin Durant

FD: $10,300 — DK: $9,800
Min/Game: 34.0 — Usage: 28.5
FD FP/Min: 1.19 — DK FP/Min: 1.28

Denver at Houston – 08:00 PM

Denver
denvernba Vegas Total 212
Vegas Sprd 10.0
Team Proj. 101.3
Team Pace 98.67
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter Emmanuel Mudiay Gary Harris Danilo Gallinari Kenneth Faried Joffrey Lauvergne
Opp. Season 8 21 24 29 26
Houston
houstonnba Vegas Total 212
Vegas Sprd -10.0
Team Proj. 111.3
Team Pace 99.25
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter Ty Lawson James Harden Trevor Ariza Terrence Jones Clint Capela
Opp. Season 11 29 26 30 27

Denver

The Nuggets were everyone’s favorite team to see on the schedule last season. They played at one of the fastest paces and they had one of the worst defenses in the entire league. That led to some very high scoring basketball games. The Nuggets lost Ty Lawson and Arron Afflalo and they will start the season without Jusuf Nurkic and Wilson Chandler. That means that they will only have one starter (Kenneth Faried) from last year.

Houston Rockets Defense (2014-15)

Points Allowed Per Game: 100.5 (17 of 32)
Defensive Efficiency: 100.5 (6 of 32)
Rebounding Differential: -0.1 (15 of 32)
Fantasy Points Allowed per Game: 201.3 (24 of 32)

The Rockets were one of the best defenses in the NBA last season on an efficiency basis (per 100 possessions), but they allowed the 16th most points per game and the ninth most fantasy points per game. How is that possible, you ask? Pace of play. The Rockets played at one of the fastest paces in the NBA last year and that will likely be the case again this season. The Nuggets are large underdogs in this matchup, but there should be plenty of fantasy production to go around in what may end up being the fastest-paced game of the night.

Rookie Emmanuel Mudiay is expected to start at point guard tonight for the Nuggets. With Jusuf Nurkic and Wilson Chandler both out, he should have a large role in the offense. At his price point, he is a nice value play, although I like Shane Larkin and Isaiah Canaan a bit better for cash games. Mudiay is a great tournament play though, as the casual fan probably doesn’t know the name just yet. Danilo Gallinari and Kenneth Faried are both borderline elite plays tonight. Gallinari should be back to 100% this year and the Rockets have not defended small forwards well in the past.

Elite Plays

Danilo Gallinari

FD: $6,600 — DK: $5,800
Min/Game: 24.0 — Usage: 21.7
FD FP/Min: 0.85 — DK FP/Min: 0.91

Secondary Plays

Kenneth Faried

FD: $6,800 — DK: $6,600
Min/Game: 28.0 — Usage: 20.2
FD FP/Min: 0.95 — DK FP/Min: 1.02

Emmanuel Mudiay

FD: $5,500 — DK: $5,700

Joffrey Lauvergne

FD: $3,500 — DK: $3,000
Min/Game: 11.0 — Usage: 19.3
FD FP/Min: 0.83 — DK FP/Min: 0.89

Houston

The Rockets had a nice postseason run last year, after that incredible comeback against the Clippers. All five starters from a season ago are still on the roster, although they did make a couple of changes. They picked up Ty Lawson to be their starting point guard and they lost Josh Smith as their difference maker off the bench. Lawson has been dealing with some back pain recently and is questionable for tonight’s contest against the Nuggets.

Denver Nuggets Defense (2014-15)

Points Allowed Per Game: 105.0 (27 of 32)
Defensive Efficiency: 105.5 (26 of 32)
Rebounding Differential: -0.4 (18 of 32)
Fantasy Points Allowed per Game: 207.0 (29 of 32)

The Rockets have one of the best matchups on the schedule tonight. Last season, the Nuggets allowed the sixth most points per game and the fourth most fantasy points per game. They also played at a fast pace and had one of the worst defensive efficiencies of any team in the NBA. The Rockets have an implied team total of 111.25 points, which is easily the highest on the board tonight.

James Harden is adamant that he should have been the MVP last season. He is out to prove everyone wrong and what better way to do that than to open the season with a monster game against one of the worst defenses in the NBA. I have Anthony Davis ranked as my top overall play at any position tonight, but Harden is a close second. He is the premier play at shooting guard if you can find a way to get him into your lineup. Terrence Jones is also an elite play here, as Dwight Howard is suspended for tonight’s game and Donatas Motiejunas is out with a back injury.

Elite Plays

James Harden

FD: $10,800 — DK: $10,100
Min/Game: 37.0 — Usage: 31.3
FD FP/Min: 1.24 — DK FP/Min: 1.35

Terrence Jones

FD: $6,000 — DK: $6,200
Min/Game: 27.0 — Usage: 18.7
FD FP/Min: 0.92 — DK FP/Min: 0.89

Secondary Plays

Trevor Ariza

FD: $5,800 — DK: $5,800
Min/Game: 36.0 — Usage: 16.6
FD FP/Min: 0.71 — DK FP/Min: 0.79

Corey Brewer

FD: $4,100 — DK: $4,400
Min/Game: 26.0 — Usage: 20.9
FD FP/Min: 0.80 — DK FP/Min: 0.83

Clint Capela

FD: $4,400 — DK: $3,000
Min/Game: 8.0 — Usage: 21.3
FD FP/Min: 0.98 — DK FP/Min: 0.99

Cleveland at Memphis – 08:00 PM

Cleveland
clevelandnba Vegas Total 186
Vegas Sprd 6.0
Team Proj. 90.3
Team Pace 94.78
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter Mo Williams J.R. Smith LeBron James Kevin Love Timofey Mozgov
Opp. Season 6 7 10 4 2
Memphis
memphisnba Vegas Total 186
Vegas Sprd -6.0
Team Proj. 96.3
Team Pace 94.21
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter Mike Conley Courtney Lee Jeff Green Zach Randolph Marc Gasol
Opp. Season 10 20 16 7 6

Cleveland

We covered the changes to the Cavaliers’ roster in yesterday’s Grind Down, but to quickly recap, their main acquisition was Mo Williams, which is already paying dividends with the injury to Kyrie Irving. The Cavaliers didn’t look great in the first quarter of last night’s game against the Bulls, but even though they lost, they did manage to outscore Chicago the rest of the way.

Memphis Grizzlies Defense (2014-15)

Points Allowed Per Game: 95.1 (2 of 32)
Defensive Efficiency: 99.9 (4 of 32)
Rebounding Differential: 0.2 (12 of 32)
Fantasy Points Allowed per Game: 186.7 (2 of 32)

In daily fantasy sports, we like to come up with a general set of rules that make building lineups easier in each sport. For instance, in baseball, we never target pitchers in Coors Field. In the NFL, we never target running backs against the Jets. In the NBA, I generally try to avoid targeting players against the Grizzlies. Last season, they were ranked second in points allowed per game, fourth in defensive efficiency, and second in fantasy points allowed per game. They play at a slow pace and they rarely allow opponents to score in transition. Given the difficult matchup, I will be fading the Cavaliers tonight. Mo Wiliams may be worth a look on DraftKings though, as he is coming off of a big game last night and he is still priced at $4,900.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Mo Williams

FD: $6,000 — DK: $4,900
Min/Game: 29.0 — Usage: 24.8
FD FP/Min: 0.89 — DK FP/Min: 0.98

Memphis

The Grizzlies took out the Blazers in the first round of the Western Conference playoffs last season and then had a 2-1 lead over the Warriors in the conference semifinals. While they eventually lost to Golden State in six games, they gave them all that they could handle. The Grizzlies return all five starters this season and their biggest acquisition was Matt Barnes. They should be able to compete for homecourt advantage again in the tough Western Conference.

Cleveland Cavaliers Defense (2014-15)

Points Allowed Per Game: 98.7 (13 of 32)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.1 (20 of 32)
Rebounding Differential: 1.9 (8 of 32)
Fantasy Points Allowed per Game: 193.8 (9 of 32)

The Cavaliers were ranked above the league average in points allowed per game, rebounding differential, and fantasy points allowed last season. While we should never rule out a game completely, for fantasy purposes it’s awfully easy to fade this one tonight. The total for the game is set at only 186 points and the Grizzlies have a low implied team total of 96.25 points. Marc Gasol, Zach Randolph, and Mike Conley are borderline secondary options, but that isn’t saying a whole lot.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

NONE

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious