NFL Advanced Matchup Plays: Week 10
Blah, blah, blah. Nobody reads the intro.
Note 1: All numbers in parentheses refer to a player’s salary rank on each site.
Note 2: All references to expected fantasy points can be explained here.
Quarterback
Patrick Mahomes [DK: QB1, FD: QB1]
Patrick Mahomes every week? Patrick Mahomes every week.
By FanDuel scoring, Mahomes’ 250.7 fantasy points through the first nine weeks of the season is the second-most by any player at any position all-time, and just 0.6 points behind. Mahomes has now thrown for at least 300 yards in every game this year. He’s also thrown for at least 300 yards and at least three touchdowns in seven of nine games this year. The other two games came in tough matchups against Jacksonville and on the road against Denver. Still, he threw for at least 300 yards and added a rushing touchdown in both games. As I wrote last week, “they also really weren’t ‘down games’ if factoring the strength of the opponent. In fact, those performances were historically great. His 313 passing yards against Jacksonville was the most the Jaguars have allowed since the 2016 season. His 304 passing yards against Denver was the most by a road quarterback against them since the 2014 season.”
Last week Mahomes faced off against another tough opponent in the Browns, who, up to that point, were leading the NFL in opposing passer rating (77.1) while also ranking first in schedule-adjusted fantasy points per game allowed to opposing quarterbacks. Again, it didn’t matter – Mahomes dropped 27.8 fantasy points and finished as a top-five quarterback for the seventh time this season. His opponent this week is less imposing than the others we’ve mentioned, but there might be concern that the Chiefs lean more run-heavy as 16.5-point favorites. I wouldn’t worry too much, however, as over the past two seasons the Chiefs have been the second-most pass-heavy team when leading by 14 (or even 20) points.
Ryan Fitzpatrick [DK: QB8, FD: QB12]
Fitzpatrick currently ranks third among all quarterbacks in fantasy points per game (24.0), and that’s despite exiting Week 4 in the second quarter and entering Week 8 on the last drive of the third quarter. Fitzpatrick also ranks fifth-best in passer rating and is our sixth-highest-graded quarterback. As a team, the Buccaneers are averaging 356.6 yards per game, which ranks third-most all-time through the first nine weeks of the season. The matchup this week looks great as well. Over the past five weeks Washington has given up the most fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks (27.9), while also ranking bottom-five in opposing passer rating and fantasy points allowed per dropback. On paper, (to me at least) it seems Fitzpatrick is underpriced by about $1,000 on both sites.
Other: Jared Goff, Russell Wilson, Andrew Luck,
Running Backs
Expensive Running Backs
Todd Gurley totals 293 yards and seven touchdowns in his last two games against Seattle. He totals 260.0 fantasy points (28.9 fantasy points per game), or the sixth-most by any player through a team’s first nine games. He also totals 46% of Los Angeles’ offensive touchdowns over the past two seasons. With a 30.25 implied point total this week, that means the potential is good for another multi-touchdown day. Last week’s 19.9-fantasy-point-outing was his first disappointing game of the season (if 20 fantasy points can even be considered disappointing), but he’s had far more slate busting games (five games with 30 or more fantasy points). I’m inclined to continue riding Gurley’s outlier-ish season.
Melvin Gordon ranks second- or third- among all non-quarterbacks in fantasy points per game (depending on DraftKings or FanDuel scoring), and now has his best matchup of the season. The Chargers have their highest implied point total of the season (30), and it’s easy to see why, with Oakland ranking 32nd in points allowed per drive. On top of that, and to benefit Gordon, they’re also one of the league’s most egregious run-funnel defenses. 35% of their allowed yards have come on the ground (fifth-most), they’re giving up the third-most rushing fantasy points per game (19.0), and rank third-worst in yards allowed per carry (5.13). There might be a concern Gordon gets pulled too early, as 10.0-point favorites, but he played well into the fourth quarter in the team’s two victories of 16-or-more points.
Kareem Hunt is the cheapest of the three running backs, and though all three teams rank top-three in implied point total, the Chiefs have the highest of the week (by +2.75). Since Week 3, among all running backs, Hunt ranks second in fantasy points, second in carries, and second in opportunities inside the 10-yard-line. Now, he gets to face an Arizona defense that’s giving up the most rushing fantasy points per game to opposing running backs (20.7). Like Oakland, they too are a run-funnel defense – allowing the fifth-most rushing yards but the fifth-fewest passing yards to opposing offenses.
Dion Lewis [DK: RB23, FD: RB25]
After last week’s 14-point victory against the Cowboys, it seems clear the Titans no longer have a true committee backfield. On Monday night, Lewis out-snapped Henry 59 to 14, out-carried him 19 to six, and out-targeted him four to two. That was in a game with gamescript that should have benefited Henry if this were truly a committee. Even if Lewis were still seeing the sort of usage he saw to start the year he’d be a great play at his current price-tag. The Titans are 6.5-point underdogs and the Patriots rank bottom-three in receiving fantasy points per game allowed to opposing running backs for the second year in a row. Now, with the bonus of extra carries and even more guaranteed usage, he’s rightfully chalky. Oh, and #RevengeGame.
Other: Mike Davis (must-start if Chris Carson is out), Aaron Jones, Duke Johnson, Mark Ingram, James White, David Johnson,
Wide Receivers
Josh Gordon [DK: WR14, FD: WR13]
Over the past month of the season, Gordon ranks 12th among wide receivers in targets (30) and ninth in receiving yards (314). Julian Edelman is actually out-targeting Gordon over this stretch (by five), but the matchup sets up much better for Gordon this week. Edelman runs 70% of his routes from the slot and Tennessee is giving up the third-fewest fantasy points per game to slot wide receivers. Gordon, meanwhile, runs 60% of his routes from Tom Brady’s left and Tennessee is giving up the most (19.2) fantasy points per game (70% more than league average) to left wide receivers. That’s where CB Malcolm Butler spends 83% of his time. Butler leads all cornerbacks in yards (618), touchdowns (seven), and fantasy points (143) allowed. He’s actually given up more fantasy points to wide receivers than all but 13 wide receivers total themselves. Look for Bill Belichick to embarrass and expose Butler, possibly forcing another benching (wouldn’t that be ironic), as payback for the barrage of annoying questions he was forced to endure following the Super Bowl.
Tyler Boyd [DK: WR5, FD: WR6]
Boyd ranks 14th among wide receivers in fantasy points and 20th in targets, but ranks inside the six-most-expensive wide receivers on both sites. This makes him seem overpriced, but maybe not with A.J. Green out (9.5 targets per game) and Cincinnati likely forced to play catch-up throughout, as 5.5-point underdogs. Boyd also has our strongest cornerback matchup of the week and this game has the highest over/under of the week. The Saints are giving up the fifth-most fantasy points per game to opposing slot wide receivers (where Boyd runs 73% of his routes), and Boyd has done a good job of making the most of his best matchups. He averages 25.0 fantasy points per game (three games) against defenses ranking bottom-five in fantasy points per game to slot wide receivers, and 24.0 (four games) against defenses ranking bottom-10. In all other games he averages just 11.4 fantasy points per game.
Larry Fitzgerald [DK: WR18, FD: WR26]
Fitzgerald looked healthy in Week 8, putting up 24.2 fantasy points on 12 targets, and now is coming off another week of rest following the bye. Over the last four weeks of the season, Fitzgerald ranks seventh among wide receivers in expected fantasy points per game (17.2). Priced as just the 26th-highest-priced wide receiver on FanDuel, he’s a clear value in a game that sets up nicely for plenty of targets and garbage-time as 16.5-point underdogs.
Other: Davante Adams, Jarvis Landry, Corey Davis, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Maurice Harris / Jamison Crowder, TB/LAR/DET Wide Receivers
Tight End
Travis Kelce [DK: TE1, FD: TE1]
I suspect the far majority of my Week 10 tight end exposure will go to Kelce. Why gamble when you can pay a slight premium for a sure-thing? On DraftKings, Kelce is the ninth-highest-priced receiver, but he ranks seventh in fantasy points per game. Already he looks like a value, but even more so when we factor in positional advantage – he’s averaging 5.0 fantasy points per game more than the next-closest tight end on the slate (excluding Eric Ebron whose numbers were skewed by a Jack Doyle injury). On top of that, he also has the matchup working in his favor, with Sammy Watkins seriously banged up (and possibly out for Week 10) and Tyreek Hill likely to be shadowed by the league’s best shadow cornerback in Patrick Peterson.
Other: Jack Doyle, O.J. Howard, Chris Herndon, Jacksonville TE1