NFL Advanced Matchup Plays: Week 11
Blah, blah, blah. Nobody reads the intros. (Full-disclosure: I’m taking this week off and not playing DFS. If that makes you less confident in my analysis this week, so be it.)
Here are my top plays of the slate:
Note 1: All numbers in brackets refer to a player’s salary rank on each site.
Note 2: All references to expected fantasy points can be explained here.
Quarterbacks
Drew Brees [FD: QB1, DK: QB1] & Carson Wentz [FD: QB8, DK: QB2]
Brees is averaging 0.66 fantasy points per dropback, a number that would rank top-five over the previous decade (among all quarterbacks with as many dropbacks). However, he ranks just 25th of 29 quarterbacks in dropbacks per game. This has been issue (why he only ranks seventh in total fantasy points) – New Orleans is a run-first offense unless their opposition can put up enough points to pressure them into passing (e.g. Week 9). Still, he might be able to get by on hyper-efficiency (e.g. Week 10). If we expect Brees to hit value (easier for him to do so on DraftKings) it will likely be the former route, as Philadelphia has been a tough matchup this year
Wentz is the easier sell, in the much better matchup. The Saints rank dead-last in schedule-adjusted fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks. Volume shouldn’t be a concern for Wentz, as 8.5-point favorites and with New Orleans funneling action through the air. The Saints rank fourth-worst in passer rating, third-worst in fantasy points per dropback, but are leading the league in rushing yards allowed per carry (3.28). 79% of their allowed yardage has come via the pass, which ranks most in the league. Wentz is an easy top play this week, and though the second-highest-priced quarterback on DraftKings, still a strong value on both sites.
Lamar Jackson (if announced as the starter) [FD: QB15, DK: QB22]
If Joe Flacco is out and Jackson is announced as the starter, this will be the easiest decision of your life. The Bengals are giving up the most fantasy points per game and the second-most rushing fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks. That’s great, but it also doesn’t really matter. I’d be starting Jackson at the price-tag even if he was up against the ’85 Bears. As I tried to show here, Jackson could be worse than Tim Tebow through the air and just 40% of who we was as a runner in college and still easily smash value.
Other: Dak Prescott / Matt Ryan, Deshaun Watson, Eli Manning / Ryan Fitzpatrick
Wide Receivers
Antonio Brown, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers [FD: WR4, DK: WR5]
Brown has scored at least 15.0 fantasy points in every game thus far, while also scoring a touchdown in eight of nine games. Among the wide receivers on this slate, he ranks first in expected- and third in actual fantasy points per game. On DraftKings, he’s currently the fifth-most-expensive wide receiver of the slate, at $7,800 – a salary where he’s hit 3X value in 50% of his games since 2014. Yes, he’ll have a tough cornerback matchup this week, but as outlined here, Brown is wholly immune to cornerback play. Case in point, Brown played Jacksonville twice last year, combining to total 30 targets, 17 receptions, 289 yards, and two touchdowns.
Amari Cooper, WR, Dallas Cowboys [FD: WR14, DK: WR20]
Cooper has seen a substantial uptick in usage since moving to Dallas, but is still priced as though he’s the WR2 on an inferior Oakland offense. Cooper totals 36.5 expected fantasy points over the last two weeks, which ranks fifth-best among all wide receivers. With Oakland, through the first six weeks of the season, Cooper ranked outside of the top-60 wide receivers in expected fantasy points per game. In addition to better usage in Dallas, Cooper has a top matchup this week, against an Atlanta defense that ranks third-worst in schedule-adjusted fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers.
Sterling Shepard, WR, New York Giants [FD: WR19, DK: WR21]
Among wide receivers, Shepard ranks 30th in both expected and actual fantasy points per game. Among the wide receivers available on this slate, that jumps to 22nd and 20th, implying an appropriate price-tag if this were a neutral matchup. His two best games this season have come in his two best matchups, against Atlanta and New Orleans – the only teams he’s faced that rank bottom-10 in fantasy points per game to slot wide receivers (where Shepard runs 69% of his routes). Now, he gets the ultimate slot matchup, up against a Tampa Bay defense that is giving up 23.8 fantasy points per game to opposing slot wide receivers, which ranks most in the league and 52.5% higher than the league average rate. Tampa Bay, meanwhile, has been much better on the outside, where they’re giving up just 17.8 fantasy points per game (seventh-fewest).
Other: Kenny Golladay (if Marvin Jones is out), Brandon LaFell , T.Y. Hilton, Corey Davis, Larry Fitzgerald, Odell Beckham Jr. / Michael Thomas / DeAndre Hopkins / Julio Jones
Running Backs
Ezekiel Elliott, RB, Dallas Cowboys [FD: RB5, DK: RB3]
Good luck trying to figure out which of the top running backs to pay up for this week. They’re all in smash spots. If forced to choose by balancing price, ownership, usage, and matchup, I suspect my favorite is Elliott, though I’ll mostly be splitting ownership. By my data, Elliott has had the second-toughest schedule to-date of 40 qualifying running backs. That should change this week against the Falcons. Atlanta ranks third-worst in fantasy points per game (schedule-adjusted or not) to opposing running backs, while also ranking eighth-worst in yards allowed per carry. Volume has never been better for Elliott, ranking second in carries and 13th in targets (already with 10 more than he had all of last year). Efficiency has been there as well (4.9 yards per carry), but one thing has been missing – near end zone usage. He ranks just 17th among running backs in expected touchdowns per game after ranking second-best last year. He should have plenty of scoring opportunities this week, however, as Atlanta ranks fourth-worst in points allowed per drive and Dallas has their second-highest implied point total of the season (22.75). (Notes: Though Deion Jones was activated, he’ll still be sitting out this week.)
David Johnson, RB, Arizona Cardinals [FD: RB7, DK: RB6]
The old David Johnson is back, or so it seems. Johnson totaled 21 carries and nine targets in Week 10, good for 27.3 expected fantasy points (most at the position) and 37.3 actual fantasy points (most at the position). It seems we can trust new OC Byron Leftwich to use Johnson similarly to how he was used in 2016. Even if not, there is one area where Johnson has excelled all year – usage near the end zone. Johnson ranks seventh among all players in expected touchdowns, and from a market share perspective, this looks even more impressive. He and Todd Gurley tie for the league lead (in expected touchdown market share) with 42.8%, while the next-closest player is at only 32.7%. That’s especially notable this week, as Arizona has its highest implied point total since Week 1, in an ideal matchup against Oakland’s run funnel defense. Arizona is favored (a rarity for them), and by 5.5-points. Oakland ranks worst in rushing yards allowed per game (128.4) and second-worst in yards allowed per carry (5.12). They also rank second-worst in points allowed per drive (3.02) and have seen 35% of their total yardage allowed come via the run (sixth-most).
Kerryon Johnson, RB, Detroit Lions [FD: RB16, DK: RB12]
Johnson played on 71% of Detroit’s snaps and set a new high in expected fantasy points in Week 10 (17.5), after just setting a new high in Week 9 (17.0). He ranks second among running backs in targets over the past three weeks (19). This is despite Theo Riddick’s Week 9 return and two games with game-script that would seemingly be more beneficial to Riddick. Over this span, Johnson has seen 26 carries, 11 targets, and three opportunities inside the 10-yard line, while all other Detroit running backs combine to total just 12, 16, and 2, respectively. With Johnson now pairing good usage to match hyper-efficiency (ranks third-best in yards per carry and sixth-best in yards after contact per attempt), he’s a clear top value this week. Though the matchup isn’t great, it also isn’t terrible, and he’s the cheapest running back we can project to see at least 20 touches.
Other: James Conner / Melvin Gordon / Alvin Kamara / Saquon Barkley / Christian McCaffrey / Leonard Fournette, Dion Lewis, Mark Ingram
Tight Ends
Zach Ertz, TE, Philadelphia Eagles [FD: TE1, DK: TE1]
Ertz is averaging 18.7 expected fantasy points per game, which ranks sixth-best among all receivers. It’s also 4.8 more than the next-closest tight end. It would also be the best mark by any tight end this past decade, and 2.0 points more than next-closest (Jimmy Graham’s 16.7 in 2011). In terms of actual production, he’s on pace to break the all-time record for receptions from a tight end by 23, and yards from a tight end by 76. He ranks seventh among all receivers in fantasy points per game (20.4), but he isn’t priced like it. On DraftKings he’s just the 11th-highest-priced receiver on the slate. All of this being said, the matchup is tougher than normal. The Saints rank best over the past two seasons in schedule-adjusted fantasy points per game allowed to tight ends.
Other: It’s another brutal week at the tight end position, where it makes the most sense to pay all the way up or punt the position completely. If looking to punt, I like James O’Shaughnessy at a near-minimum price-tag on both sites. Since Austin Seferian-Jenkin’s Week 4 injury, Jacksonville’s TE1 is averaging 5.0 receptions and 38.0 yards per game. That would rank fifth- and 12th-best, respectively, over this span. In the middle pricing tiers I like Austin Hooper and Jeff Heuerman. I wouldn’t bank on it, but both have double-digit target potential at discount price-tags. Hooper has seen double-digit targets in three of his last five games. Heuerman appeared to be main beneficiary of Demaryius Thomas’ absence, drawing 11 targets in Week 9.