NFL Advanced Matchup Plays: Week 16
Happy Holidays and welcome to Week 16. We will keep the intro short, so everyone can get back to wrapping gifts and spiking eggnog. Several studs are off of the main slate, which opens more lineup-building avenues than usual. Fitting in players we really like is too tough, so this should be a fun Christmas Eve of games.
The most common roster construction should resemble something like; expensive at receiver, cheaper-than-usual running backs (with LeSean McCoy the uber-chalk), some typically-unexciting tight end, and whichever of the many quarterback options fits best. As always, deviating from this basic build is a simple method of differentiating ourselves in large-field tournaments.
Thank you for reading all season, good luck in Week 16, and be sure not to Gronk-spike your eggnog.
QB Matt Ryan – Atlanta Falcons, $8,100
Attractive quarterback plays litter price list this week, and Ryan’s salary neighborhood is a target-rich environment. He makes for a tidy pivot off of Derek Carr, who is priced the same, as well as Philip Rivers against Cleveland, Andrew Luck against Oakland, and Jameis Winston in the Superdome. Ryan also produced an underwhelming stat line last week, through no fault of his own, as he took seven fewer dropbacks than his previous season-low. He threw for his second-highest yards-per-attempt of 2016, which was second only to his mark from the last time he faced the Panthers.
Ryan piled up 503 yards and four touchdowns against Carolina in Week 4. While those numbers pop off the page, Ryan’s 42 dropbacks and 37 attempts – both his third-highest marks of this season – are worth noting. The Panthers allow the 10th-most plays per game, and their 12th-graded run defense allows only 3.7 yards per carry (third-lowest), forcing opponents to the air. The Falcons couldn’t run on them in Week 4, averaging 3.6 yards on 21 handoffs. The Panthers grade 26th-best in pass coverage, and the Falcons should again have the services of Julio Jones.
QB Russell Wilson – Seattle Seahawks, $7,700
Priced as the 12th-most-expensive quarterback, Wilson’s affordable cost will go more overlooked than in a typical week. Sunday marked his fourth 20-plus-FanDuel-point performance in the last seven games, with three of them coming in Seattle. He put up 17 points in the Seahawks’ other home game during that span. At home this year, Wilson has a higher completion percentage (67.6 versus 62.8), yards-per-attempt mark (8.2 versus 7.2), touchdown-to-interception ratio (nine-to-three versus seven-to-eight), passer rating (100.6 versus 80.3), and fantasy-point-per-dropback rate (0.47 versus 0.33).
Wilson’s PFF grades are also better at home, where he ranks third-highest among quarterbacks during the weeks the Seahawks are in Seattle – versus 22nd the weeks they’re away. It meshes nicely with a Cardinals’ defense that struggles on the road (29.7 points allowed) and has received below-average coverage grades in their last two games away from Arizona. They got lit up last week for 388 passing yards and four touchdowns. Despite a still-respectable reputation, the Cardinals’ defense can be had. It is especially true in areas where stackable Doug Baldwin will run his routes during a game in which the Seahawks have the week’s fifth-highest implied total (26 points).
RB DeMarco Murray – Tennessee Titans, $8,400
Murray will be moderately owned as the third-most-expensive (healthy) running back on the main slate after a $1,000 price hike. Paying up for LeSean McCoy or down for Todd Gurley will be popular. Concern over Murray losing scoring opportunities will scare many potential buyers. Yet, Henry taking six of Tennessee’s last eight carries from inside the 10-yard line does not spell doom for Murray. The rookie is yet to get see a target inside the 10, where Murray has two touchdown catches. Touchdowns can be fickle. Far more bankable is steady production and occasional ceiling games from a locked-in 20-plus-touch running back.
The last time Murray had fewer than 20 opportunities (targets plus carries) was Week 2. He averages 23.4 of them, and that includes 23 per game over the last month. Murray compiled the best two-game rushing grade of his season in Weeks 14 and 15, while registering 15.2 and 16.6 FanDuel points against our first- and ninth-graded defenses – as the Titans averaged only 16 points. They have a 24.5-point implied total against a Jaguars defense allowing the 13th-most fantasy points to running backs and the sixth-fewest to quarterbacks during the last month. Murray averaged 6.2 yards on 21 carries against them in Week 8, with a touchdown.
RB Latavius Murray – Oakland Raiders, $7,300
The last thing Murray’s Week 15 investors want to do after dousing the flames is to think about going back to him. “Shame me twice…” or something like that. It does make Murray an intriguing tournament play, however. Throw in a juicy spot for the Raiders passing game, the reappearance of tag-team rookie running backs and a $500 price bump, and we can project low ownership. The question is if we can project more than the 14 touches he got last week while fumbling twice – his first of the season — and if there’s a chance Murray returns to the 21-touch average he established over his previous five outings.
The Colts have our 31st-graded run defense and allow 4.5 yards per carry (seventh-most). The Raiders’ fourth-highest-graded run-blocking will have little problem rolling over them. Even on the 13 carries Murray got last week, he ran for 82 yards (6.3 average) and forced three missed tackles against the sixth-highest-graded run defense. He received their only two goal line carries, bringing Murray’s total handoffs inside the five-yard line since November began to 11 out of a possible 12. As a 3.5-point home favorite in a game with the week’s highest projected total, the tournament upside of seeing if last week was a blip is significant.
RB Bilal Powell – New York Jets, $6,500
A runner with a “third-down back” reputation and a top-20 price (17th) on a half-PPR scoring site doesn’t stand out as a tournament play. When his team has the, by far, lowest implied total of the week (13.8 points), and that team is the pack-it-in Jets, you may wonder why you aren’t wrapping gifts already. Yet, Powell is more than a passing-game specialist, and if there was one Jet who hadn’t already packed it last week, it was him. He averaged 5.3 yards on 16 carries and hauled in 11 of 12 targets for 78 more yards. Only three wideouts had more targets last week and nobody had more catches.
New York is a 16.5-point underdog in New England, so even if crackle-kneed lead back Matt Forte makes more than just a cameo this week, Powell’s pass-catching expertise will be well-used due to game script. Powell ranks third in Elusive Rating and yards-per-carry (5.7). He has our fourth-highest rushing grade and ranks fourth in yards after contact per attempt on handoffs out of 51 qualifiers. He is better than even a healthy Forte. The Patriots allow the second-most targets and receiving yards to running backs, so Powell is both well-equipped to carry the ball and is in a prime spot to have it thrown to him.
RB Kenneth Farrow – San Diego Chargers, $6,100
If people don’t want to go back to Latavius Murray after he burned them last week, imagine how they feel about Farrow – who was also popular in cash lineups. His 39 yards on 15 carries were brutal, and Farrow saw only two targets after catching all six in Week 14. Despite Melvin Gordon looking doubtful to play again, Farrow is not on many radar screens. However, looking at his situation from a wider angle reveals several attractive items for someone with a presumed lead-back workload. The Chargers are favored by nearly a touchdown, their 25-point implied total is sixth-highest on the slate, and the matchup is spectacular.
Farrow will face a 28th-graded Browns run defense allowing the second-highest yards-per-carry (4.8) and tied for the third-most rushing touchdowns (17). Cleveland gives up the second-most points to fantasy running backs. They allowed 280 yards on the ground last week. While the Chargers aren’t the Bills and Farrow couldn’t carry LeSean McCoy’s champagne bottle, they don’t have to be. Farrow may have been a Week 15 disaster, but he showed well in preseason, graded 18th-best among draft-eligible running backs last year and second only to Ezekiel Elliott in 2014. Even if he doesn’t deserve another chance, his Week 16 spot warrants it.
WR Julio Jones – Atlanta Falcons, $8,500
Julio Jones at a good price and low ownership? The catch is, of course, he is returning from a multi-week absence due to a toe injury. By several reports, it is an injury he could theoretically have played through had the Falcons needed him for games against the Rams and 49ers they wound up winning by a combined 56 points. A road game against the division rival Panthers – who are not playing dead and should push the Falcons offense to continue scoring – is a different sort of animal.
Jones enters Week 16 still leading the league in receiving yards and ranking second among wideouts in PFF grading. A lot of his yardage lead is owed to Jones having smoked the Panthers for 300 yards and a score on 12 catches in their early-season meeting. While Carolina has improved defensively since then, much of it is because rookie cornerback James Bradberry has come into his own. Bradberry does not shadow, however, and Jones will only run roughly a quarter of his routes against him. The Falcons will need to throw to move the ball and they have the week’s fourth-highest implied total. Julio Jones at a good price and low ownership!
WR Michael Thomas – New Orleans Saints, $6,900
In a game tied for the second-highest projected point total of the week (52.5), and on a team with the fourth-highest implied total (27.8 points), Thomas should play a central role. He missed Week 14 in Tampa Bay, when the Saints were held to 11 points on 58 plays. We can expect a different script in the Superdome, where the Saints average 32.3 points and allow 29.4. Priced as the 13th-most-expensive wideout, Thomas offers exposure to a likely shootout at a moderate cost. As New Orleans’ leader in red-zone touchdowns and tied for their most red-zone targets, that exposure is of the high-leverage sort.
While #WRWinz aren’t a thing, it’s worth noting the Saints are 4-2 and score 37.7 points per game when Thomas sees at least eight targets. They are 2-6 and average 22.5 points when he doesn’t. It is no secret, to them or to us, the Saints’ offense clicks when Thomas is highly-involved. He will run the majority of his routes against Buccaneers’ rookie cornerback Vernon Hargreaves, who grades 96th in coverage and allowed all five targets to be caught for 67 yards in Week 14. He also missed two tackles and is tied for the second-most at his position (11), while Thomas has forced 14 – the fourth-most among wideouts.
WR DeSean Jackson – Washington Redskins, $6,300
Jackson has had two of his three best passing game grades come during the last two weeks. Fully healthy and headed for free agency, he had a season-high 10 targets and 49 pass routes last week. He hauled in seven for 111 yards, Jackson’s best and second-best totals of 2016, respectively. He has scored in three of his last five games and has taken a larger role with Jordan Reed’s shoulder hampering him and Jamison Crowder cooling off. Jackson offers both affordable exposure to this week’s fourth-highest projected game total, as well as trademark big-play ability (third in 20-plus-yard catches).
The Bears have allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to wideouts this year, and the fifth-most completions of at least 20 yards during the last month. Jackson will run roughly three quarters of his routes from the right side (42-percent) and the slot (30-percent), where he will match up against Tracy Porter and Demontre Hurst. Porter grades 100th in coverage out of 121 qualifying cornerbacks, while the undrafted Hurst will be starting his fifth game – second this season – in a four-year career. Last week he couldn’t keep up with tight end Jared Cook (three targets, three catches, 39 yards). Jackson is faster than Cook.
WR Cameron Meredith – Chicago Bears, $5,500
Priced as the 48th-most-expensive wideout of the weekend, Meredith won’t go overlooked. While his price screams “cash games,” he has a decent ceiling in a game with the fourth-highest projected total of the week (47 points). His tournament ownership should be held in check by understandably heavy interest in Jordan Howard instead of the Bears’ passing game – and Alshon Jeffery’s buzzier name, for those who decide to pair a receiver with Matt Barkley. However, Jeffery will be tangling with Josh Norman for most, if not all of the game. Meredith has a far easier path to production.
Chicago’s leader in snaps (220), targets (34), receptions (20), and receiving yards (262) over the last four weeks, Meredith still played 57 snaps (second-most) and had the Bears’ most targets, catches, and yards in Jeffery’s Week 15 return from suspension. He has operated out of the slot on 75.2-percent of his routes since Week 12, leading all slot wideouts in targets and ranking fourth in yards. If he is lucky enough to face rookie Kendall Fuller, who grades 98th in coverage, that would be ideal. Fuller has played little of late, however, with Bashaud Breeland seeing 59 slot coverage snaps the last two weeks. He grades 93rd in coverage. He is better than Fuller, but either will do nicely.
TE Martellus Bennett – New England Patriots, $5,600
Paying up for a still-affordable Greg Olsen makes sense. Antonio Gates had better get his record-setting touchdowns in Cleveland before the Chiefs and Eric Berry visit. Delanie Walker is back in play as well. Tight end thins out pretty quickly after those three. Zach Ertz played Thursday. Ladarius Green and Jordan Reed are sidelined, while Tyler Eifert and Travis Kelce are off the main slate. “Two-touchdown upside” is a nice rule of thumb for tournaments, but at this point we’re just looking for a tight end with hands. Who has two thumbs and two-touchdown upside? The Black Unicorn does in a game the Patriots have a slate-high 30.3-point implied total.
Finally rounding back into healthy form, Bennett just posted his highest snap count since Week 10 and ran his most routes since hobbling around against the Jets after Rob Gronkowski went down. Bennett had 70 yards and a touchdown on four catches against the Ravens’ tough tight end defense two weeks ago. The Jets tight end defense is not tough. Dion Sims scored twice against them last week and Dwayne Allen had three in Week 13. New York can still stop the run and force opponents to pass. In what is potentially the final pre-playoffs tune-up for many Patriots’ starters, Tom Brady may want to sharpen his rapport with Bennett – who already has a game with three touchdown catches.
TE Cameron Brate – Tampa Bay Buccaneers, $5,600
We are going back to Brate despite his relatively quiet four catches on five targets for 47 yards when he last faced the Saints two weeks ago. His 25 run-blocking snaps were his most since Week 5, and Jameis Winston attempted his fewest passes of the season (26). The Buccaneers stand less of a chance of avoiding a back-and-forth affair in the Superdome than they did in that home game. Vegas agrees, and the game has the second-highest projected total of the week (52.5). The first Saints matchup is sandwiched between games in which Brate averaged eight targets, 5.5 catches, 79.5 yards, and scored twice.
Over the last eight outings, Brate has 36 catches on 46 targets, for 422 yards and five touchdowns. He trails only Travis Kelce in tight end scoring and PFF passing-game grading during that stretch. He is also tied for 11th among all pass-catchers in red-zone targets (9) and is tied for first in red-zone touchdowns with five. The Saints lead the league in blitz rate (42-percent) and brought pressure on 52-percent of snaps against the Bucs two weeks ago. Brate has caught 16 of 20 blitzed targets, for 163 yards and three touchdowns this year – including two of three for 26 yards against New Orleans in Week 14.