NFL Advanced Matchup Plays: Week 17
Week 17 is always my favorite DFS week of the regular season. It’s a lot like preseason DFS where additional research is required but, typically, the more research you do the more you’re rewarded for it. It’s also looking like an MME rather than single-entry week. Here are my top plays for the week, but note so much hinges on late news, so this column is a little more incomplete than typical.
Note 1: All numbers in brackets refer to a player’s salary rank on each site.
Note 2: All references to expected fantasy points can be explained here.
Quarterbacks
Patrick Mahomes [DK: QB1, FD: QB1]
Patrick Mahomes totals 399.7 fantasy points through Weeks 1-16, averaging 26.6. In total fantasy points or on a per-game-basis, that’s the new record for fantasy quarterbacks. He’s the highest-priced quarterback on both sites, but it still comparatively cheap on DraftKings. His $7,100 salary was eclipsed 40 times by quarterbacks last year. The Chiefs need to win to clinch the No. 1 seed, and Oakland is a dream matchup on paper. Oakland ranks third-worst in opposing passer rating (138.6) and worst in fantasy points allowed per dropback (0.62). As I showed the last time these two teams faced off (Week 12 when Mahomes totaled 33.0 fantasy points), this is also an ideal matchup for Mahomes in that he’s the league’s most-pressure-sensitive quarterback and Oakland’s defense is the worst at generating pressure. Gamescript is a concern, but Kansas City is still one of the league’s 12-most pass-heavy teams (61%) despite spending the most time leading by 10 or more points.
Other: Jameis Winston, Ben Roethlisberger, Aaron Rodgers, Teddy Bridgewater, Lamar Jackson
Running Backs
High-Priced Options
Of the high-priced options, you’re probably only looking at Melvin Gordon and Saquon Barkley, unless we get something more definitive on Christian McCaffrey, James Conner, Todd Gurley, and Ezekiel Elliott. Barkley ranks third (24.0) and Gordon ranks fourth among running backs in fantasy points per game (23.8). That’s at least 2.0 fantasy points per game more than the next-closest wide receiver, though, laughably, both are priced well below the highest-priced wide receiver. That’s been a pricing mistake we’ve exploited all year to great success (paying up for the bell cow running backs) and this week should be no different.
Mid-Tier
Over the last three weeks, Chris Carson ranks sixth in both expected (19.5) and actual fantasy points per game (21.8). He benefited from Rashaad Penny’s absence in two of these games as well as mostly good gamescript, but gamescript should be ideal again this week, as 13.5-point favorites. Seattle’s motivations aren’t cut and dry but a win does give them a better seed. Over this three-week stretch, 86% of Carson’s production and volume has come on the ground. The Cardinals are most exploitable on the ground, giving up the most rushing fantasy points per game to enemy running backs.
Across Jaylen Samuel’s three starts, he’s played on 71% of the snaps while averaging 16.9 fantasy points per game. Pittsburgh needs a win and Cincinnati is giving up the most fantasy points per game to opposing running backs.
Value Plays
In last week’s column, I wrote, “From Week 11 to 17 in 2017, Jamaal Williams played on 91% of the snaps. Over this span, Williams averaged 18.7 carries, 4.7 targets, 18.3 expected fantasy points, and 19.0 actual fantasy points per game. By any stretch, those are mid- to low-end RB1 numbers.” In Week 16, he played on 85 snaps, drawing 15 carries and eight targets. No other running back saw a snap. He totaled 27.6 fantasy points (second-most) on a 21.5-fantasy-point expectation (fifth-most). He should be an RB1 again in Week 17 against Detroit.
Elijah McGuire has assumed a bell-cow workload following the departure of Isaiah Crowell. Over the last three weeks, he’s played on 78% of the snaps while averaging 16.5 expected (ninth-most) and 19.0 actual fantasy points per game (11th). This week he gets a New England defense ranking third-worst in yards allowed per carry (4.88) and 10th-worst in receiving fantasy points per game allowed to enemy running backs.
With Matt Breida out for Week 17, Jeff Wilson again becomes a strong value. Breida played on only 10 snaps Weeks 13-14. Over that span, Wilson played on 78% of the snaps, while averaging 19.0 carries and 5.5 targets per game. This was good for an average of 16.0 fantasy points per game (11th-most at the position over this stretch) and an 18.1-point per-game expectation (ninth-most).
In Week 16, C.J. Anderson touched the ball 21 times, while totaling 162 yards and a score. His expectation was low (12.2), but he played on 75% of the team’s snaps while drawing 66% of the team’s running back opportunities. Anderson’s low expectation is partly due to good efficiency, scoring on his lone opportunity inside the 5-yard line, and partly due to a lack of work through the air (one target). If Todd Gurley is out in Week 17, we shouldn’t expect a Gurley-esque workload from Anderson, but we could expect high-end-RB2 volume. On one of the league’s most efficient offenses, that might again be good for RB1 numbers.
Super Value Plays
There is always good value at the running back position in Week 17. Whether due to injury or teams resting starters or teams wanting to get a better look at their backup before the draft, we’ll frequently find a near-minimum-priced running back thrust into a bell cow workload. More than any other position, fantasy production for running backs has far more to do with volume than efficiency. These running backs will come in on fresh legs and oftentimes outproduce the starter they’re replacing, due to a more robust workload (thanks to a reduction in competition for snaps). In 2016, for instance, backups Charcandrick West, Rex Burkhead (then with Cincinnati), and Shaun Draughn all finished as top-five fantasy running backs in Week 17. This week, we’ll be looking at names like Brian Hill and maybe Cameron Artis-Payne, if we get word Tevin Coleman and Christian McCaffrey are out. Keep an eye on news later in the week. I’m sure we’ll get word a few more starters will be out.
Other: James Conner is a top option if he plays, Ezekiel Elliott is risky but firmly in play for tournaments unless Jerry Jones starts changing his tune on playing the starters, Devontae Booker, Damien Williams
Wide Receivers
Davante Adams [DK: WR7, FD: WR4]
Adams leads all wide receivers in fantasy points per game (21.8) but is just the seventh-highest-priced wide receiver on DraftKings. He’ll get Pro Bowl CB Darius Slay in shadow coverage this week, but that didn’t matter in Week 5 when he posted a 9-140-1 line against Detroit on 12 targets. Despite the Pro Bowl nod, Slay also hasn’t played well this year, ranking just 59th of 75 qualifying cornerbacks in fantasy points allowed per route in coverage. Adams has also been one of the more cornerback-immune wide receivers all year. Despite shadow games against Slay, Stephon Gilmore, Patrick Peterson, Tre’Davious White, Marcus Peters, and Xavier Rhodes (x2), Adams has, remarkably, reached at least 16.0 DraftKings fantasy points in every game this year. Adams also has a strong narrative working in his favor. He needs 134 yards to break a Packers record for most receiving yards in a single season, and based on this article, it seems all relevant parties are very aware of that fact.
Julian Edelman [DK: WR11, FD: WR13]
Since rejoining the Patriots in Week 5, Edelman ranks 12th among all wide receivers in fantasy points per game (16.9). He runs 67% of his routes from the slot, and the Jets rank worst in fantasy points per game allowed to opposing slot wide receivers. Basic math suggests he’s a top value this week.
Robert Woods [DK: WR15, FD: WR10]
Since Cooper Kupp’s season-ending injury in Week 10, Woods ranks fifth among wide receivers in expected (18.1) and eighth in actual fantasy points per game (18.8). Over this span he’s run 69% of his routes from the slot (59% last week), which means an ideal matchup this week against a San Francisco defense that is giving up the fifth-most fantasy points per game to opposing slot wide receivers.
Kenny Golladay [DK: WR16, FD: WR16]
Golladay follows up three straight brutal matchups (shadow coverage from Patrick Peterson, Tre’Davious White, and Xavier Rhodes) to get a Green Bay defense that was just gashed by Robby Anderson to the tune of 29.0 fantasy points. Green Bay is giving up the second-most schedule-adjusted fantasy points per game to opposing WR1s. Despite the tough cornerback schedule, Golladay ranks sixth in expected fantasy points per game (19.4) and seventh in yards per game (102.0) over the past two weeks. With a depleted receiving corps it seems Matthew Stafford has reverted back to his younger self, when he would forcefeed the ball to his WR1 (then Calvin Johnson) regardless of how open he might be.
DaeSean Hamilton [DK: WR29, FD: WR40]
Over the last three weeks, Hamilton ranks 16th among wide receivers in fantasy points per game (15.1) and 10th in expected fantasy points per game (16.9). Courtland Sutton finally saw better usage last week (17.3 to 14.2) and Denver’s offense is hard to trust, but he remains a strong value. The Chargers aren’t a soft matchup by any stretch, but he should get the better end of it with Casey Hayward likely to shadow Sutton.
Other: Antonio Brown / JuJu Smith-Schuster, Tyreek Hill, Julio Jones, Keenan Allen, Doug Baldwin, Jordy Nelson, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Jake Kumerow, Tre’Quan Smith, Adam Humphries,
Tight Ends
Zach Ertz [DK: TE2, FD: TE1]
With Nick Foles under center, Ertz is seeing a target every 3.35 routes. That is 17% better than the next closest tight end and also would lead all wide receivers. Alshon Jeffery is Foles’ second-favorite target, but he’ll have his hands full this week, in shadow coverage against Josh Norman. Nothing about the matchup stands out, but Ertz did just finish with the fifth-best fantasy tight end season of all-time. That makes him comparatively cheap on both DraftKings and FanDuel. His $6,700 salary on DraftKings was eclipsed 24 times (by a tight end) last year, and his $7,800 salary on FanDuel was eclipsed 16 times. He’s a better value on DraftKings, where he ranks as the 17th-highest-priced receiver on DraftKings, but ranks 11th in DraftKings fantasy points per game.
Travis Kelce [DK: TE1, FD: TE2]
Kelce just put together the fourth-best fantasy season (Weeks 1-16) of all-time. Like with Ertz, that added historical context makes him a screaming value at salary, and especially so when considering how weak the rest of the position is in comparison. Unlike Ertz, Kelce also has a top matchup this week. Oakland ranks worst in yards allowed per target to tight ends (10.8) and has seen 27.5% of their total passing yardage allowed go to tight ends (second-most). They rank fourth-worst in schedule-adjusted fantasy points per game, which, of course, includes Kelce’s 12-168-2 line against them in Week 13.
Other: George Kittle, Jared Cook, Chris Herndon, Gerald Everett
Cover Image Credit: USAToday Sports Images