NFL Advanced Matchup Plays: Week 3
After the running back injury apocalypse that was Week 2, a handful of former afterthoughts have been pushed up their depth charts. Unfortunately, for our purposes, few have full control of their backfield’s workload or are in an attractive Week 3 spot. A quick look around the league shows only a dozen or so lead running backs not trapped in a timeshare or part of an injury-induced quagmire.
Until we receive greater clarity on touch distribution in Miami, Atlanta, Minnesota, or several other ambiguous backfields, it will be worth investing in workload certainty – even in tournaments. Paying up also offers lineup differentiation, as others sift through the rubble of toppled running back depth charts. Fortunately, at least for this week, we can unearth required value at other positions.
The wide receivers spot offers highly-involved options at prices that allow us to splurge elsewhere. As always, there are intriguing quarterbacks up and down the salary list. At tight end, however, looks like a week to swallow chalk or punt altogether. As always, there are several ways to skin this cat, and we have some knife-sharpening options below to help you carve up FanDuel GPPs. Good luck, everybody.
QB Russell Wilson – Seattle Seahawks, $8,700
If you want to pay up for an elite quarterback at light ownership, Wilson stands out this week. After Cam Newton ($9,200) lit up the 49ers – more on that below – he will be chased. Aaron Rodgers ($8,900) and Andrew Luck ($8,700) are in games with high projected totals. A handful of passers with juicy matchups are significantly less expensive. Plus, Wilson’s sprained ankle — which he is practicing on fully — will scare folks away. Luckily, he gets a home matchup with a 49ers’ defense that only touched Newton twice last week.
San Francisco boasts our fourth-highest-graded run defense, Seattle’s run-blocking grades third-worst, and they are still playing musical backfield with Thomas Rawls and Christine Michael. This should lead to Wilson throwing, and often. The Panthers ran a Week-2-high 78 plays against the up-tempo 49ers, which will be a recurring theme. Chip Kelly’s Eagles averaged 71.1 plays-per-game-allowed during his time there. Even if Wilson’s ankle does not allow him to be his usual dual-threat self, a snap-volume boost added to his passing efficiency equates to fantasy fireworks at barely-there ownership.
QB Ryan Tannehill – Miami Dolphins, $7,400
After tying for the fourth-most points among quarterbacks in Week 2, Tannehill is 19th-most-expensive at his position. He won’t be sneaky after Week 2, but even the most obviously great quarterback plays rarely get piled on – see Cam Newton last week. The appealing matchup will draw attention, as Cleveland already gave up solid games to a pair of mid-range passers in Carson Wentz and Joe Flacco. They have allowed the 10th-most completions of at least 20 yards (8), and Miami has connected on the fifth-most (10).
Against a competent run defense (3.6 yards per carry; 14th-best PPF grade) and with the Dolphins’ backfield a mess, Tannehill will be busy. Last week, Miami fully deployed their no-huddle (55-percent of snaps), completing 20 of 24 passes for 245 yards and a pair of touchdowns. Teams typically use more tempo at home, and with the second half of Week 2 fresh in Adam Gase’s mind, we can bank on seeing it again. The Dolphins have a top-five implied total and an already-reeling Browns team in Miami for the home opener. With appealing stacking options available, Tannehill deserves our attention.
RB Ezekiel Elliott – Dallas Cowboys, $8,100
After a two-fumble game in which he was yanked while veteran Alfred Morris closed out a win, the prized rookie has lost some luster. After grading as our 36th-best running back (out of 52) in Week 1, Elliott’s encore earned him the 45th-best grade. He is averaging 3.3 yards per carry, ranks in front of only Jeremy Langford in Elusive Rating, and has one run of 15-plus yards in 50 attempts. Of course he’s scored two touchdowns in two NFL games and Jerry Jones recently gave him the kiss of death a vote of confidence. So it’s not all bad.
The natural inclination to not trust anything Jones says should help keep Elliott’s DFS ownership at bay – along with his fourth-highest-running-back price tag and other appealing options for those choosing to pay up at running back. What we can count on with Jones is he’ll want his controversial first-rounder to succeed when the national television lights are on Sunday night. Dallas has the fourth-highest implied total, while Chicago has a short week to prepare and an injury-wracked front seven missing several of their best run defenders.
RB C.J. Anderson – Denver Broncos, $8,000
Despite a sneaky-favorable matchup and the third-most running back points through two weeks, Anderson will likely be under-owned. The Broncos are traveling east for an early game with a bottom-three projected total, and he is the fifth-most-expensive option at his position. Anderson profiles more as a GPP than a cash game play this week. However, if we are paying up for workload certainty – and in this case lower-than-appropriate ownership – targeting someone who has seen the fifth-most running back touches during the first two games is a good place to start.
The Bengals have allowed the most rushing yards (276) on the third-most rushing attempts (66). On a per-game basis, they allow the eighth-most catches and fantasy points to running backs, despite not allowing any rushing touchdowns. The Broncos are our highest-graded run blocking team and Anderson is playing a healthy 73-percent of snaps – a mark he didn’t reach in 2015 until the Super Bowl. He has forced a missed tackle every 4.3 touches (5th-best of 42 running backs), and we shouldn’t miss on this chance to roster an elite back at sparse ownership.
RB Mark Ingram – New Orleans Saints, $6,900
If we are playing the Monday slate, Ingram deserves our attention. The Saints are a field-goal-favorite at home and in a matchup with the week’s highest projected total. After he ran well in New Orleans’ first game, averaging 4.8 yards per carry and forcing a missed tackle for every 2.4 carries (best of 33 backs with at least 10 carries in Week 1), Ingram slammed into the Giants’ reinforced run defense. He only saw nine carries, which is worrisome, but Ingram did see his target workload rise from two to four – which is more in line with his 4.8 target-per-game average from 2015.
The fact that Ingram hasn’t scored a touchdown yet will help us get him at reasonable ownership rate despite the cherry matchup and projected shootout. The Falcons are our third-worst-graded run defense, allow 4.6 yards per carry (6th-worst), and are fortunate to have only faced the 17th-most rushing attempts. Ingram may not be a comfortable play after his first two weeks, but we aren’t making cash lineups here. He has legitimate two-touchdown upside, something he accomplished against the Falcons last season, after scoring three times against them in 2014.
RB Frank Gore – Indianapolis Colts, $5,700
If there is ever a time to play a 33-year-old running back with over 3,000 touches on his tires, it’s in September. When that running back is priced 40th at his position, he makes for a low-risk investment and allows flexibility throughout the rest of a lineup. While Gore won’t be severely under-owned, he doesn’t exactly get the fantasy juices flowing — even as a rare lead backfield dog staring at a strong matchup. Gore isn’t in the top-20 for running back scoring, but he’s accumulated the 14th-most touches among running backs.
The Colts will be without No. 2 receiver Donte Moncrief, have zero receiver depth, and are set to use heavier personnel packages. Their offensive line talent has improved and – baby steps — their run blocking grades 17th-best through two weeks despite challenging matchups. The Chargers’ run defense grades 25th-best, one year removed from ranking dead last. San Diego’s fifth-graded pass coverage and NFL-high 23 running-back-catches allowed, along with Indianapolis’ receiver depth issues and projected positive game script (Colts are field-goal-favorites at home) will keep Gore’s workload robust.
WR Jordy Nelson – Green Bay Packers, $8,300
The Packers have been in a serious offensive funk – for them, anyway – with the 20th-most points and 30th-most yards. Their first game at home, in what will be a high-tempo matchup with the Lions (43-percent no-huddle; 3rd-most) and Detroit’s 25th-graded pass coverage, should cure what ails them. Nelson will not be under-owned after scoring a touchdown in each of his first two games, but he’s also unlikely to be prohibitively popular. Fear of Lions’ top cornerback Darius Slay is real, but Nelson lines up on the left and in the slot roughly half of the time.
Nelson understandably did not look himself during a scorching-hot Week 1 game in Jacksonville, after not playing a meaningful game since 2014. Last week he played 14 more snaps (95-percent overall), ran 15 more routes, gained 41 more yards on two more targets, while averaging 9.3 more yards per reception and earning better grades. Nelson’s three targets from inside an opponents’ 10-yard line are tied for second-most, and his three catches are tied for first. With the second-highest implied total of the week and a 57-percent 2015 no-huddle rate at home, Nelson is in a prime spot to continue rebounding.
WR Sterling Shepard – New York Giants, $6,500
The world will be watching Odell Beckham Jr. clash with Josh Norman all over the field – except in the slot – and Shepard is shaping up as an afterthought. Considering he is priced the same as Mike Wallace and is $100 more expensive than Stefon Diggs, his ownership should be light. New York has a solid implied total (25.5 points, 6th-highest) and features an impotent rushing attack (30th-best grade; 3.2 yards per carry) with an injured lead back. Thus far ineffective, Rashad Jennings should play through his thumb ailment, but Washington just bottled up a far more impressive Cowboys’ running game.
All of this means plenty of work for Shepard, who caught all eight of his Week 2 targets for 117 yards, one week after scoring in his NFL debut. He operates almost exclusively out of the slot (91.8-percent slot rate; 3rd-highest) and already grades as our ninth-best wideout in the passing game; while his interior matchup is on the undercard, it pits him against Washington’s soft underbelly.
WR Stefon Diggs – Minnesota Vikings, $6,400
Diggs is still priced as the 40th-most-expensive wideout due to playing on Sunday night, and despite his role as the key pivot point in a million dollar DFS lineup, he may offer a palatable ownership rate. Even if he’s popular, the price allows for lineup diversification elsewhere. The Vikings face the Panthers on the road, and while it may seem like a prohibitive spot, Carolina is tied with Buffalo for our 19th-graded pass coverage. Diggs has seen nine targets in each of his first two games, and he can expect more with Minnesota losing Adrian Peterson on top of their fourth-lowest run-blocking grade.
The Panthers should also struggle to run against the ninth-graded run defense of the Vikings, raising the pace for both sides. Their no-huddle rate is higher at home (plus-12-percent in 2016; plus-25-percent in 2015) and they allowed 70.1 plays per game in Carolina last season. As touchdown-underdogs, game script will further contribute to Minnesota throwing it around. With all due respect to their other pass-catchers, who else is Sam Bradford throwing to? Considering his quarterback essentially had the best game of his career when Diggs rolled up 182 yards and a score, we already know the answer.
WR DeVante Parker – Miami Dolphins, $6,200
Parker won’t sneak up on anyone after last week, but the 44th-most-expensive wideout is still worth highlighting. His 13 targets were four more than he saw in any game last year, and his eight catches also set a career-high (by three). Parker played on 90.8-percent of snaps in his first game after struggling with hamstring issues during training camp and, despite sitting out Week 1, is already our 23rd-highest-graded wideout. Last year as a rookie, his passing game grade ranked 22nd-best (out of 116 receivers) on a per-snap basis once he became a starter in Week 13.
An ideal contrast to downfield threat Kenny Stills (27.1-yard average depth of target) and line-of-scrimmage catfish Jarvis Landry (6.3-yard aDOT), Parker threatens all levels (16.6-yard aDOT). He ran one out of five routes from the slot last week and, even if he sees some of Joe Haden’s coverage, it won’t be on all routes. Haden has allowed two touchdowns and was a train wreck in 2015 (108th of 118 cornerbacks). The Haden threat, stacking viability, and him being priced in Tyrell Williams’ ($6,100) and Phillip Dorsett’s ($6,000) neighborhood, will help keep Parker GPP-worthy.
TE Jordan Reed – Washington Redskins, $7,500
Unlike with Greg Olsen in Week 2, we are not going to find a premium tight end in a good matchup at low ownership. Reed is not sneaky and certainly won’t be lightly owned. Yet, with Olsen and Travis Kelce in prohibitive matchups, Antonio Gates hobbled again, and Rob Gronkowski playing Thursday, our choices at the top are Reed and Delanie Walker. Both face favorable opponents and will be popular – Walker’s strong Week 2 will draw attention — but the extra $600 is worth paying for the monster ceiling only Reed can offer on non-Gronk slates.
The Giants have a stiff run defense and strong perimeter pass coverage. They allowed Jason Witten nine catches on 13 targets for 66 old-man-yards in Week 1. Last week they should have been ripped by Coby Fleener if he wasn’t repeatedly “doing Coby Fleener things”:https://t.co/5VUbqAE4aj. Washington has the third-most passing yards, second-most attempts from inside the 20- and 10-yard lines, and one touchdown to show for it. The touchdown-less Reed, who leads all tight ends in targets and yards, has one target inside the 10-yard line after seeing 11 last year (9 catches, 7 touchdowns).
TE Trey Burton – Philadelphia Eagles, $4,500
This assumes Zach Ertz does not play and we aren’t squeamish about chasing seemingly out-of-nowhere points. Burton was a revelation to almost everyone, other than preseason DFS players, when he produced the sixth-highest-scoring Week 2 performance at his position. Due to it coming on Monday night, his salary stayed pinned at the minimum. In a week featuring fewer attractive tight ends than Week 2 – Dwayne Allen makes sense against the Chargers, but Jack Doyle complicates matters — Burton is our punt-play man.
With cornerback Ross Cockrell coming on, and arguably the best run defense in the league, the Steelers defense does not have many soft spots. Interior pass coverage is one such spot. While Pittsburgh did not blitz often when facing Kirk Cousins and Andy Dalton – both of whom can handle extra rushers – they had the fifth-most blitz-happy defense in 2015 (40.1-percent) and will come after a rookie passer. Carson Wentz has completed all eight of his blitzed pass attempts when he targets tight ends, for 65 yards and one touchdown — to Burton.