NFL Advanced Matchup Plays: Week 5

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We know who the studs with strong matchups are this week, and there are a bunch of them. They also cost an arm and a leg. Fortunately there are mid-level options that enable us to shoehorn one or two big-ticket items into lineups. You won’t find Rob Gronkowski, Julio Jones, or Jamaal Charles listed below, and you don’t need anyone to explain why they are elite plays.

What you will find is mostly moderately-priced options, and a punt play at running back, wide receiver, and tight end. Then again, as always, you should probably just Gronk at tight end. It’s science.

On with the Week 5 FanDuel tournament picks.

QB Matt Ryan – Atlanta Falcons, $8,300 (-$100 from Week 4)

The Falcons have the second-highest implied total of the week, a far better matchup through the air than on the ground, and even have a little Narrative Street cooking. Ryan will have a healthy ownership percentage, especially in conjunction with Julio Jones. But there are several ways to go at quarterback, and if Jones is too expensive to fit into a lineup, Ryan provides indirect exposure to him.

Atlanta will find it harder to run than in recent weeks. Washington is allowing 3.9 yards per carry, has a +10.5 run defense grade over the last three weeks, and has surrendered just one rushing touchdown. Devonta Freeman had rushing scores of two, three, six, seven, 16, and 23 yards in the last two games. Terron Ward had an eight-yarder. Ryan will be throwing for those scores this week.

matt ryan

Washington has allowed the fewest snaps (53.8 per game), but will have a tough time holding the ball against an Atlanta team that runs the fourth-most plays (68.3), and is more than a touchdown favorite. Narrative Street includes a squeaky-wheel wideout and Washington’s former offensive coordinator, Kyle Shanahan, wanting to run up the score in the Georgia Dome – where Ryan averages nearly 2.5 more fantasy points per game.

QB Sam Bradford – Philadelphia Eagles, $7,500 (+$400)

In a game that Vegas projects to feature the most points of Week 5, the Eagles sport one of the higher implied totals of the weekend. Coming off of a 277-yard, three-touchdown performance, Bradford’s confidence has to be at its high point. He was finally confident enough to throw downfield, attempting eight passes 20 yards or deeper, after only taking seven such shots in the prior three games combined.

New Orleans has the worst coverage grade in the NFL (-22.8), and their pass rush isn’t much better (-8.5; 29th). Considering that Bradford ranks 22nd in Accuracy Percentage while under pressure (64.5), and is uncomfortable without a clean pocket, that bodes well. The Saints’ run defense ranks third-best (+22.4), despite facing the eighth-most rushing plays. Given New Orleans’ relative strengths, the Eagles will be throwing.

The Saints are allowing the third-most fantasy points to quarterbacks, and doing it on the third-fewest passing attempts against (110). The reason the hurry-up Eagles, who ran the most plays in 2014, rank 28th in snaps is because they are last in third down conversion rate. In road games, the Saints are allowing the seventh-highest conversion rate, and should further cure what ails the Eagles passing offense.

RB Justin Forsett – Baltimore Ravens, $7,200 (+$500)

Baltimore finally got a win and Forsett was a big part of it. He had more than twice the rushing attempts than he’d been averaging prior to Week 4. The Ravens would be crazy to ratchet-down his involvement again, and even if they were, their lack of viable weapons wouldn’t allow it. Workload and game script should not be an issue with Baltimore nearly a full-touchdown favorite at home over the Browns.

Cleveland ranks 29th in run-stopping (-19.1), and they’re allowing 5.2 yards per carry to all running backs that didn’t run behind the Chargers’ backup offensive line last week. Despite Philip Rivers’ big day, the way to attack the Browns remains on the ground. Last week, Baltimore’s offensive line finally resembled its dominant 2014 form, and left tackle Eugene Monroe’s return will mercifully remove James Hurst from the field.

After seeing four targets in each of the first three games, Forsett didn’t get a single look against Pittsburgh. Even if that wasn’t a fluke, the absence of Steve Smith and Crockett Gillmore should funnel passes his way. It was encouraging that Forsett got a pair of carries from just inside the red zone, although the jury is still out on his involvement there. Either way, he will get fed against Cleveland, and with Lorenzo Taliaferro potentially hurting, Forsett should get a portion of that juicy red zone meat.

RB Dion Lewis – New England Patriots, $6,900 (+$200 from Week 3)

After a bye week and a game in which he was New England’s second-highest-scoring running back, Lewis’ buzz has calmed. LeGarrette Blount played 72 percent of his snaps in the second half, after Lewis played 80 percent of his before halftime. Lewis, who averages 15 touches per game, received carries from the Jacksonville six and three yard lines, and not because he was stuck on the field in the hurry-up.

dion lewis

After allowing an average of 58 snaps per game and hogging the ball for 38:50 over the first two weeks, Dallas is giving up 69 plays per contest and lost more than 11 minutes off of that time of possession. Their run defense went from a +8.8 grade to a -23.6. The Cowboys allow the third-most fantasy points to running backs, while surrendering 83.3 receiving yards (second-most) and eight catches per game to the position (fifth-most).

There is the specter of Blount, but New England is again likely to use him as a closer. They are still tinkering with the very young interior of their offensive line, and just 25 percent of his runs have gone between the tackles. All three of his goal line plunges in Week 3 went off tackle. In the two prior years, 58 percent of his runs went inside. We will see Blount again, but mostly after Lewis builds up a lead.

RB T.J. Yeldon – Jacksonville Jaguars, $6,600 (+$200)

Over the last three weeks, when the Jaguars were in games with mostly neutral game scripts, Yeldon averaged 26 touches. When they got blown out by the Patriots, he saw 11 carries and three targets. Jacksonville is a two-and-a-half point underdog in Tampa Bay, which essentially means that Vegas sees them as even. Even with favorable passing game matchups, we can project Yeldon for another hefty workload.

Tampa Bay’s run defense grades dead last (-26.2), and they have allowed huge rushing days to the likes of Alfred Blue (4.5 yards per carry and a touchdown), and Bishop Sankey (6.2 and a touchdown). Yeldon is a superior runner (+1.5 rushing grade) to Blue (-1.2) and Sankey (-2.3). His positively-graded pass blocking contributes to a 77.6 snap percentage (92.9-percent in Week 4). He has also run the third-most pass routes among running backs.

Yeldon’s lack of touchdowns and highlight-reel plays (just one run of 15 or more yards) has kept his buzz down. While we’d like to see those in his bag of tricks, at least it’s kept his price down. Tampa Bay has allowed a league-high 18 runs of 10 or more yards (via Rich Hribar), plus four rushing touchdowns and a receiving score by Sankey. Week 5 sets up well for Yeldon and, like most rookies, his production should continue to trend upward.

RB C.J. Spiller – New Orleans Saints, $5,500 (-$500)

I wanted to ride with Ameer Abdullah for the running back punt, and will have a little exposure now that he’s beyond back-to-back brutal matchups, but he isn’t overly cheap and Joique Bell’s status remains unclear. Spiller, on the other hand, is fairly inexpensive and is trending up. His 80-yard overtime touchdown catch may be the spark that makes his incremental gains in snaps and workload more exponential.

Spiller’s snap percentage has gone from nine, to 21, to 29, and his targets have increased from one, to two, to five. Mark Ingram remains the “starter,” but his snap rate has decreased from 65, to 61, to 56-percent. He leads all running backs with 22 catches, but many of those will begin going Spiller’s way now that he’s fully healthy – and on the rare occasions that Spiller has been fully healthy, he’s been special.

The Saints are road underdogs by more than a field goal. Even if the game is close, they face a top-four run defense (+21.1) and just had an injured Drew Brees throw 41 times in Week 4. Brees’ average depth of target was 4.4 yards (30th-shortest of 31 passers). That’s Spiller territory. The Eagles allow 6.8 catches and 55.8 receiving yards per game to running backs. Both rank in the top-third for most in the league.

WR Emmanuel Sanders – Denver Broncos, $7,700 (-$200)

The Broncos are going to be throwing, as Oakland’s run defense is coming on. They graded out at -12.2 and allowed 4.7 yards per carry to running backs to start the year. Since then, that run defense grade is +15.3, and backs are averaging 3.3 yards on 42 attempts. Denver’s ground game grade (-2.4) ranks 31st and they’re averaging 3.5 yards per carry (fourth-worst). Considering the Raiders’ pass coverage is third-worst (-17.4), we know where this is headed.

emmanuel sanders

If you want to take advantage of Oakland’s complete lack of interior pass coverage, and Owen Daniels makes you squeamish, Sanders will do much of his work in the same areas of the field. Of his 25 receptions, 56 percent have come between the hash marks. Demaryius Thomas does more work outside the numbers (55 percent of catches) and is a similarly strong play, but will cost $900 more. In a week when budgets are tight, paying up for Thomas (and slightly less ownership), is tougher.

No matter where either Denver wideout lines up, they will face off with bad-to-abysmal cover men. Neiko Thorpe’s coverage grade ranks 70th of 104 qualifying cornerbacks, and slot man D.J. Hayden’s is second-to-last. David Amerson has a -2.1 in just 112 snaps. He’s the worst of the bunch and will catch “up” to Hayden soon. We are going to want a healthy piece of this Week 5 bonfire in our lineups.

WR Larry Fitzgerald – Arizona Cardinals, $7,400 (No Price Change)

The hottest thing in the Arizona desert finally cooled off, and still produced 99 yards on seven catches (nine targets). It may not throw cold water on his ownership numbers, but Fitzgerald remains an outstanding play. Over the last three games, he’s averaged 10 targets, eight catches, 118 yards, and 1.7 touchdowns. Although Carson Palmer is spreading targets around, Fitzgerald is his number one option and has a prime matchup.

The Lions run defense ranks ninth (+13.3), and just held Seahawks running backs to an average of 3.5 yards on 20 carries. The Cardinals offensive line is coming together, but it will be tough sledding on the ground in Detroit. The Lions’ pass coverage ranks 24th (-12.0), and their pass rush is middle-of-the-pack (16th). Incredibly, they are allowing over 78 percent of opponents’ passes to be completed.

The six-foot-three-inch Fitzgerald runs most of his routes out of the slot, and will be matched up with a five-foot-eight-inch Duraflame log named Josh Wilson. Wilson, who gives up more than 30 pounds to Fitzgerald, is tied for 89th out of 104 qualifying cornerbacks in pass coverage grading (-4.2). That’s the same grade he had in 2014. Fitzgerald, who has battled nagging injuries in recent seasons, is still fully healthy, and we should ride him while we can.

WR Allen Robinson – Jacksonville Jaguars, $6,300 (-$200)

Robinson managed to post 80 yards on four catches last week, despite a tough matchup against Vontae Davis. Allen Hurns did the rest of the damage for him, catching 11 balls on 14 targets for 116 yards and a score. He is the flavor of the week in Jacksonville, despite that outsized target load being almost entirely driven by Robinson’s tough matchup. Hurns had been averaging five targets per game before Week 4.

Robinson still had 11 targets against the Colts, and is averaging 9.3 per game. He is the alpha wideout in the Jaguars offense, and his price is a screaming bargain. His ceiling, which he showed when ripping off 145 yards and a pair of touchdowns against Miami in less than one half of play back in Week 2, remains sky-high. Coincidentally, that was the last time he had a favorable matchup. He has one this week as well.

Tampa Bay’s cornerbacks are weak, to be kind. With Jonathan Banks sidelined, Tim Jennings and Mike Jenkins are manning the outside where Robinson runs most of his routes. Their coverage grades rank 66th and 86th, respectively. Jenkins, in particular, has been awful. He’s allowed seven catches for 98 yards and two touchdowns over the last two weeks.

WR Tyler Lockett – Seattle Seahawks, $5,100 (No Price Change)

Lockett earned his first significantly positive passing game grade against the Lions (+1.1), set career highs in targets (5) and yards (58). Baby steps for sure, but we aren’t getting him at this price and ownership level after a blow-up week. Seattle is a road underdog, and it’s questionable if they will have the full services of Marshawn Lynch. The will be throwing more often than usual, and the rookie is trending up.

Lockett lines up all over, but will predominantly face Dre Kirkpatrick, whose coverage grade (-7.7) ranks 101st out of 104 qualifying cornerbacks. The six-foot-two, 190-pound Kirkpatrick has shown well against larger wideouts like Michael Crabtree, but small receivers like Steve Smith have been an issue (two catches, four targets, 36 yards and a score).

Lockett is a punt play who has already returned one punt for a touchdown. He’s taken a kickoff to the house as well. If you are into using the Seahawks defense against an Andy Dalton-led Bengals team, in a spot where their ownership rate actually may be depressed, Lockett is a no-brainer add-on. He brings a double-dip touchdown into play, and can pay off his price even if he doesn’t score one.

delanie walker

TE Delanie Walker – Tennessee Titans, $5,400 (+$200 from Week 3)

Following Tennessee’s bye, it’s easy to forget that Walker left their Week 1 game (after gaining 43 yards and a touchdown) with a wrist injury, missed Week 2, and then posted 68 yards on 10 targets while not at 100-percent health in Week 3. Back at full strength, Walker will play a key role against a Bills defense that’s allowed the fifth-most catches to tight ends. All three of Buffalo’s starting linebackers have negative pass coverage grades, ranging from -1.1 (Manny Lawson) down to -3.6 (Nigel Bradham).

Tom Brady and Eli Manning beat the Bills defense in large part because they got rid of the ball quickly. Brady’s time-to-throw was 2.06 seconds, and Manning’s was 1.82 seconds – both the quickest of those respective weeks. Marcus Mariota’s seasonal time-to-throw is 2.86 (eighth-slowest), and he will need to speed it up. This means plenty of targets for Walker, whose average depth of target is 10.6 yards downfield. That’s roughly three yards closer to Mariota than any of his starting wideouts.

TE Derek Carrier – Washington Redskins, $4,500 (No Price Change)

Jordan Reed’s sprained ankle and latest concussion will keep him out against the Falcons, and Carrier will assume the lion’s share of a tight end role that has accrued 9.8 targets per game. That 25.5-percent share of team targets is up in Greg Olsen territory (26.4), which leads the league. Even if Carrier doesn’t match that target volume, he will be plenty busy in a road game
where his team is more than a touchdown underdog, and may still be without their top receiving option, DeSean Jackson.

Atlanta’s Paul Worrilow is especially poor in coverage (-2.7; 39th of 51), but all three starting linebackers and both safeties grade in the red. Until this point, it’s mostly been running backs that are taking advantage, with league-high per-game averages of 10.5 catches and 91.3 yards. The Falcons have faced in-turmoil offenses or underwhelming tight ends, and haven’t been hurt badly by them. Washington’s in-turmoil tight end situation is different in that it presents the rare punt play with a legitimate ceiling.

About the Author

pthorman
Pat Thorman (pthorman)

Pat is a Lead Writer for PFF Fantasy and a consultant for Draft Day Consultants Inc. He won the FSWA Newcomer of the Year in 2013, and placed 6th in the 2014 FantasyPros weekly rankings contest in his first year competing. Pat lives north of Boston with his wife and son, and you can follow him on Twitter @Pat_Thorman.