NFL Advanced Matchup Plays: Week 8
“Just draft the best players.” It is a maddening directive season-long fantasy players have heard more often than “I can’t believe I fell for Torrey Smith again.” Being advised to just pick a league-winner in every round is both sound logic and overly simplistic. In DFS, the best players are often the chalk, which isn’t always what we want in tournaments. We’d strive to differentiate ourselves from our competition.
This season, the chalk has been hitting so hard that Roger Goodell is fining it every week. The sharp take is to remain in a contrarian stance while waiting for the inevitable early-game injury to an uber-popular player or some other unforeseeable event. The catch is it’s an uncomfortable approach, and how contrarian is too contrarian? What is outside-the-box to one player can be outside-your-mind to another.
If we asked 10 DFS players to make a chalky lineup, there still would be a decent amount of variation in what they came up with. If we asked them to make their highest upside lineup, the differences would be significant. Even if we us the mega-chalk this week – Devontae Booker – his price tag leaves enough salary to come up with countless unique roster combinations. This isn’t to advocate 100-percent exposure to Booker in large field GPPs, but we can get away with using him due to his position and price.
The season is essentially half over. Before we know it we’ll be grasping at differentiators while humping a two-game Conference Championship slate and wishing we only had six teams on bye. Let’s enjoy making our highest-upside lineups and running them out there. If we have a pivot or leverage play in mind, great – but let’s rely on our favorite plays rather than out-of-leftfield ones. We’ll have more fun, and our rosters will probably wind up more unique than we’d imagine.
Here are some Week 8 FanDuel tournament plays. Good luck everyone.
QB Cam Newton – Carolina Panthers, $8,300
Priced fourth-highest at his position, Newton shapes up as a value in his first home game since Week 3. In what has so far been a turbulent season, we don’t know exactly what we’ll get from him in a less-than-favorable matchup. Still, he makes for a hell of a tournament play. The last time he faced the Cardinals, roughly 10 months ago in the playoffs, Newton threw for 335 yards and two scores, with another 47 yards and two touchdowns on the ground. Of course, now Arizona is allowing the seventh-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks, a year removed from giving up the 16th-fewest.
Until last week, we could point to the Cardinals not facing many any daunting quarterbacks, but they held Russell Wilson down in a grueling tie at home. Arizona now goes cross-country for an early game, a situation they puked all over themselves in when the Bills rolled 33-18 in Week 3. Tyrod Taylor didn’t do damage with his arm, but he ran for 73 yards and a touchdown against a defense allowing the most rushing yards to quarterbacks. Newton has noted how he will be running more often, which has always been the cherry on his ceiling sundae. As the saying goes, “Cam is always viable in tournaments,” and it’s especially true in a gut-check home spot for the Panthers.
QB Derek Carr – Oakland Raiders, $7,800
The eighth-most-expensive quarterback on the slate, Carr faces a Buccaneers pass defense allowing the eighth-highest yards-per-attempt average (7.4). He will be doing it at moderate ownership, as Carr is priced within $200 of both Andrew Luck and Drew Brees – who play at home. With the third-highest over/under on the slate and a solid 24.5-point implied total, Carr is set up to confirm our suspicions about Tampa Bay’s pass defense. They have only faced 32.2 pass attempts per game, from mostly questionable quarterbacks. Their pass rush ranks 22nd and Oakland’s pass blocking grades fourth-best.
The Buccaneers surrender 4.0 yards per carry — the same rate they allowed in Gerald McCoy’s return last week. During games our second-highest-graded defensive tackle plays, Tampa Bay allows 3.38 yards per carry. Tampa Bay has faced two legitimate passers, with Matt Ryan and Carson Palmer averaging 319-yards and 2.5-touchdowns. Case Keenum, the Broncos quarterbacks, Derek Anderson, and Colin Kaepernick averaged 213.8-yards, with 1.3 touchdowns and an interception per game. The Buccaneers’ defense remains what we thought they were – a funnel – and Carr stacks well with one or both of his top wideouts in a potential shootout.
RB Ezekiel Elliott – Dallas Cowboys, $8,500
It is tough to envision Elliott being low-owned, even at his second-highest price tag among running backs. He is a Cowboy and enthusiasm for America’s alleged Team is ramping up. However, it’s been two weeks since he trampled the to-that-point formidable Green Bay run defense – which still allows only 2.31 yards per non-Cowboy carry. While it’s doubtful folks have forgotten the performance, with several attractive options in his immediate price range and many others below it, Elliott will not be heavily-owned. That is all we can ask for when rostering the driver of the league’s most powerful steamroller.
The Cowboys rank fourth in run blocking, but after grading negatively in their first two games, they lead the league. Elliott grades as our top running back and leads the NFL in rushing yards since Week 2. He has seen more targets (seven) in his last two games than in his first four combined. The Eagles defense is well-regarded, but their run-stopping grades 19th-best, it allows 4.5 yards per attempt (10th-most), and the Redskins recently rolled up 230 rushing yards on 33 carries against them. Dallas is projected to score 24 points and it doesn’t take a genius to know who will do the heavy lifting.
RB Matt Forte – New York Jets, $7,300
If Forte was a lock for last week’s workload of 30 carries and four targets, he would be an elite cash game play. His Jekyll-and-Hyde usage, however, makes him suitable for tournaments only. In Weeks 1, 2, and 7, Forte averaged 31.1 opportunities (carries and targets), whereas he only saw 12.8 in Weeks 3, 4, 5, and 6, while slowed to varying degrees by various injuries (knee, ribs). During the weeks he got fed, Forte averaged 139.3 total yards and 1.7 touchdowns per game, versus 47.3 yards and no scores. He was on the field for 80-percent of snaps in the “good” weeks and only 53-percent for the other four games.
Priced $100 cheaper than Spencer Ware and $400 more than Devonta Freeman, Forte should be palatably-owned. Cleveland’s defense allowing the second-most points to quarterbacks and the eighth-most to wideouts also helps in this regard. The Browns are also seventh-most-generous to fantasy running backs, feature our 24th-graded run defense, and were trampled last week for 271 yards on 30 carries. The Jets are 2-1 – with a one-point loss – and average 27.7 points during “Forte weeks,” versus 0-4 with nine points per game when he’s not featured. Todd Bowles may not be the “RB Winz” type, but here’s hoping he at least confuses correlation with causation.
RB Devonta Freeman – Atlanta Falcons, $6,900
With Tevin Coleman shelved, Freeman will have a workhorse role in the game with the week’s highest projected total (52.5). Last season, during the 12 weeks in which he played full games after Coleman was injured, Freeman averaged 26.8 opportunities (targets and handoffs). We should expect a comparable workload on Sunday, at only the 10th-most-expensive price tag among running backs. Even with the too-cheap cap hit and central role in a likely shootout, Freeman should have palatable ownership due to an abundance of attractive options at running back, as well as well-founded interest in Atlanta’s passing game.
Already producing on the fringes of fantasy RB1 territory in something of a split backfield despite scoring only three total touchdowns, Freeman is performing better than when he lead all running backs in fantasy scoring last year. His cumulative rushing grade is already higher than it was at the end of 2015, he’s averaging 4.8 yards per carry versus 4.0, and his Breakaway Percentage is improved. The Falcons run blocking grade ranks seventh-best and, although the Packers run defense has stopped every back not named Elliott, Freeman can make up with volume what he loses in efficiency.
RB James White – New England Patriots, $5,800
Both White and the Vikings’ Matt Asiata ($5,600) offer quality pivots off of Devontae Booker ($5,600), if we’d like to stay in the same salary neighborhood. Asiata is on slates that include the Monday night game, and he faces a ready-to-implode Bears team. Jerick McKinnon looks unlikely to play with an ankle sprain and, other than Ronnie Hillman, Asiata is the only man in Minnesota’s backfield. When Asiata has played at least 50-percent of snaps over the last three seasons, he’s averaged 20.1 touches, 85.6 yards, and a touchdown per game. He also correlates swimmingly with the Vikings defense this week.
Now that Tom Brady is back, White is in play for as long as it takes Dion Lewis to get up to speed and reclaim his role. The Bills’ ninth-graded run defense is typically easier to throw over than run through, and when White faced them in Week 4, he posted 50 yards on five targets – from Jacoby Brissett. He has seen his three highest snap percentages and pass route totals during the last three weeks and has scored three times in the past two games. When the Patriots last played in Buffalo, they threw 58 passes and handed off to running backs 10 times in 76 snaps. Lewis was targeted eight times and had 138 total yards with a touchdown.
WR Doug Baldwin – Seattle Seahawks, $7,200
The Seahawks have a rock-solid 25.3 implied total for a matchup in the Superdome, and most of the ownership will fall on Christine Michael in a home-run spot and Jimmy Graham in a revenge game. Both are clearly excellent plays, but Baldwin lets us get a less-chalky piece of the action. He hasn’t scored or gone over 100 receiving yards since Week 3, partly attributable to getting his bell run against the Jets in Week 4 and partly due to Graham’s rising profile. However, our fifth-highest-graded wideout looked to be picking it back up last week, with eight targets, six catches, and 69 yards.
Baldwin, who runs 83-percent of his routes out of the slot, will see a lot of rookie free agent DeVante Harris. He hasn’t played enough snaps to qualify, but Harris’ coverage grade – compiled while allowing catches on seven of eight targets and 108 yards – would rank 83rd. He has made six tackles and missed three, which is an issue against Baldwin, whose six forced missed tackles since Week 3 lead all wideouts despite his playing one fewer game than most of them. With Russell Wilson’s mobility still hampered by injuries, he will need to rely on his arm more often, and Baldwin remains his most reliable target.
WR Larry Fitzgerald – Arizona Cardinals, $7,000
The 16th-most expensive wideout of the week will not be low-owned, yet Fitzgerald is well worth rostering in tournaments. He offers strong exposure to a game which should be played at a brisk pace and is packed with scoring potential. The Panthers allow the fifth-most plays per game and a league-leading points-per-snap rate over the last month, while Arizona averages the most snaps in the league. The Cardinals are projected to be trailing and Fitzgerald will be well-positioned to exceed his 9.6-targets-per-game rate (fifth-most among wideouts) and top-10 fantasy receiver scoring average.
The Panthers have our 24th-graded pass coverage and even that is buoyed by their linebackers. Carolina’s cornerbacks are a disaster, and the 6-foot-3, 218-pound Fitzgerald will run most of his routes out of the slot against the 5-foot-9, 195-pound Robert McClain. He is tied as our 77th-graded coverage cornerback – ironically with his since-cut ex-teammate Bene Benwikere. Fitzgerald is tied for the league-lead with eight targets inside the 10-yard-line, where his size advantage over McClain will stand out. With health issues elsewhere in their receiving corps, Fitzgerald will be heavily relied upon in a plus matchup.
WR Davante Adams – Green Bay Packers, $6,600
This may seem like point chasing after he blew up last Thursday night, but Adams has been playing well for most of the season. Since Week 2, he has our 16th-highest passing game grade, is catching 76 percent of his targets at a reasonable 10.6-yard average depth (aDOT), and is hovering around the fantasy WR1/WR2 fringe. As the 22nd-most-expensive wideout, Adams offers inexpensive exposure to what projects to be the highest-scoring game of the week (52.5-point total), and do it in an offense that threw the ball 56 times a week ago.
With the Falcons using lock-down cornerback Desmond Trufant to shadow opponents’ top receivers for six consecutive games, we can assume they will again – making Jordy Nelson’s overdue breakout less likely. Adams, on the other hand, will see a ton of Robert Alford – over whom he holds a three-inch and roughly 30-pound advantage. Alford isn’t a bad player, but as his three missed tackles and three touchdowns allowed (fourth-most) show, he can be beat. The Packers’ running game is still a question, Aaron Rodgers will be throwing a ton, and Adams is in line to again see double-digit targets.
WR Will Fuller – Houston Texans, $6,600
Whether or not we believe PFF’s lowest-graded quarterback, Brock Osweiler, is awful or just awful against good defenses, Fuller has shown it doesn’t matter. At least not in home games. Against bad defenses. Fortunately we have both flavors on tap Sunday with the Lions in town. Fuller has averaged 8.7 targets, 5.3 catches and 97.3 yards, with three touchdowns in three home games. His road-game rates are 6.3 targets, 2.7 catches, 19.0 yards and zero scores. His four receptions in Denver last week were the most he’s had away from Houston
The Lions feature our 25th-graded pass coverage, and their pass rush ranks dead last. If we remove Darius Slay’s coverage grade, they would rank 30th – and it doesn’t appear Slay will play. Fuller will run most of his routes against Nevin Lawson, who’s already allowed three touchdowns and gains of 32 and 30 yards. Lawson ran a 4.48-second 40-yard dash and Fuller has 4.32 speed. One of his three touchdowns came on a punt return, and the Texans’ defense is in play for the double-dip shot against Matthew Stafford as a road underdog. He’s performed well, but averages one interception per road game, versus 0.3 at home, and is no stranger to meltdowns.
TE Travis Kelce – Kansas City Chiefs, $5,700
After a couple of quiet games in which he averaged three targets, 2.5 catches, 28 yards, and didn’t score – including last week in a great home spot against the Saints – Kelce’s ownership should be muted. The seventh-most-expensive tight end, he is reasonably priced for his touchdown upside. Kelce’s eight red zone looks are tied for 13th-most among all wideouts and tight ends, and his five targets inside the 10-yard-line rank sixth. Prior to Week 6, he had the fourth-most targets and catches among tight ends on a per-game basis. Kelce’s matchup with the Colts looks solid on paper, but has some hidden juice.
Indianapolis offers the eighth-most generous defense to fantasy tight ends, but it’s even more appealing when we consider they’ve only faced the 21st-most targets to the position. None of their starting linebackers grade positively in coverage, and over the last two weeks the Colts allowed 20 catches on 23 targets for 242 yards and two touchdowns to Zach Miller, Delanie Walker and C.J. Fiedorowicz. In a game Indianapolis will aim to play at a quick tempo, and with the Chiefs sporting a solid 26.3 implied total, it’s an opportunity to roster a top tight end when eyes are elsewhere.
TE Gary Barnidge – Cleveland Browns, $5,000
With Josh McCown again his starting quarterback, Barnidge gets his ceiling renovated. He has been a floor play since McCown was sidelined, consistently producing near his 6.2-target, 5.2-catch, 64.8-yard average during the last five weeks – but never scoring. McCown’s presence now boosts the touchdown expectation of the entire offense, especially for a tight end who ranked second in red zone targets (23) and sixth in red zone touchdowns (nine) among all players last season. He was our fifth-highest-graded pass catching tight end a year ago and ranks 32nd-best in 2016.
The Jets allow the 12th-most receiving yards and fantasy points per game to tight ends, with the 17th-most touchdowns. With all due respect to Charles Clay and Jesse James, other than Jimmy Graham (eight targets, six catches, 113 yards) and Travis Kelce (seven targets, six catches, 89 yards, one touchdown), New York hasn’t faced legitimate receiving threats at tight end. The Jets are sixth in blitz rate (37.2-percent), one year after ranking third. Last season, Barnidge was McCown’s most-targeted receiver against extra rushers, finishing with 184 receiving yards and four touchdowns at an 11.5-yard aDOT.