NFL Advanced Matchup Plays: Week 9
Welcome to the mid-point of the season and the second-straight week with six teams on bye. Last week, the narrowed field of players led to extra devastation during the season’s first “chalk apocalypse.” It also provided more opportunity for contrarian lineups to shoot up leaderboards.
There is one extra game on the main slate – and a couple more hours of sleep on Sunday morning – thanks to the London games mercifully ending. Yet, the same basic dynamic is in place, and popular players will be a bit more heavily-owned than usual.
We still want exposure to games with high projected snap paces and point totals, and some chalk – especially the cheap kind – is still worth playing in tournaments.
Here are some Week 9 ideas to use in FanDuel tournaments. Good luck this week everyone!
QB Dak Prescott – Dallas Cowboys, $7,600
With fellow Cowboys’ rookie Ezekiel Elliott the chalk of the week, Prescott’s ownership rate should be palatable relative to his juicy matchup and moderate price tag. His scoring output has been on the rise for three straight games, culminating in a career-best (statistical) performance against an Eagles defense that qualifies as the best he’s faced. That Prescott struggled for most of the game – he received his worst PFF grade of the season and Week 8’s lowest among quarterbacks – isn’t exactly what we want, but he showed another gear and higher ceiling.
Since Week 1, when Prescott attempted six deep passes and completed none, he threw 20-plus yards downfield three times in the next four games. During the last two weeks he’s five-of-eight for 161 yards and two touchdowns. The Browns are tied for the most receptions of at least 20 yards allowed, and have given up second-most touchdowns on them (eight). Cleveland allows the third-most points per game to quarterbacks and Dallas has the week’s second-highest implied total (28). Prescott leads all quarterbacks in rushing touchdowns and, although the Browns only faced one truly mobile passer – Marcus Mariota – they allowed him 64 yards on seven carries.
QB Ben Roethlisberger – Pittsburgh Steelers, $7,500
Editor’s Note: Ben Roethlisberger is ACTIVE and will start in Week 9.
Even with the obvious qualifier that Roethlisberger is a GPP-only play, he still will not be comfortable to roster. That’s the point. Nobody wants to play him until we see he’s healthy enough to produce – but then it will be too late to deploy him at barely-there ownership. Whatever his chances of throwing three-plus touchdowns – something he’s done in four of six games this year – they are far higher than his ownership rate will be. By now we’re well-versed on his shaky history in Baltimore and how he flopped in his first game back from a knee injury against Cincinnati last year (262 yards, 1 touchdown, 3 interceptions).
Of course, these Ravens are not those Bengals, and (knock on wood) Le’Veon Bell will play more than 23 snaps. He will also catch plenty of passes because these Ravens grade first in run defense and have faced the fifth-fewest rushing attempts. Their pass defense has been inconsistent in large part due to the fifth-worst-graded pass rush. Less heat on Roethlisberger not only helps his knee, but he has a 118.5 passer rating with a clean pocket, and a pathetic 29.3 mark when pressured. Fortunately the Steelers also have the fifth-highest-graded pass blocking. Sammy Coates is again healthy and Antonio Brown is ready to roll, along with Bell. Roethlisberger will be simultaneously toughing it out and playing it up, at microscopic ownership.
RB DeMarco Murray – Tennessee Titans, $8,100
Paying up at running back consists of eating chalk with Elliott or a somewhat less popular (but still highly-owned) Bell. If we go with the slightly less attractive running back, we save $600 – $900, and a lot more in ownership percentage. Murray had a mysterious toe “injury” and an MRI. He checked out fine and is fully practicing, but the doubt lingers — especially with him leaving the field during a nationally televised game and Derrick Henry setting a season-high in snap rate (48-percent). The rookie ran well and is reportedly in line to see an uptick in workload. Murray will not be popular, and that’s always interesting.
Fantasy’s second-highest-scoring running back and the league-leader in forced missed tackles on rushing plays, Murray faces a Chargers run defense grading a middling 16th-best. San Diego is the fifth-most generous to fantasy running backs on a per-game basis, in large part due to allowing an NFL-high average of 8.3 receptions to the position. It is a statistic aided by the Chargers only trailing on the seventh-lowest percentage of plays – and they are four-point home favorites over the Titans. Murray’s game profiles well in any game script, as he ranks seventh among running backs in targets and receptions.
RB Devontae Booker – Denver Broncos, $7,000
While most of the focus has been on Oakland giving up 7.9 yards per pass attempt and the seventh-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks, the Raiders’ run defense has begun to allow more production. Oakland’s pass coverage has shown improvement, and not just in PFF grading. Over the first five weeks, the Raiders allowed 341 passing yards per game (8.9 per attempt), and it’s been 217 yards (6.6 per attempt) in three games since. Opponents averaged 78 rushing yards per game during the first five weeks, and 130 since then. We know what will to try to do on Sunday night in Oakland.
Booker handled 83-percent of snaps in Week 8, despite missing time with a shoulder injury. It matched former starter C.J. Anderson’s season-high rate from Week 1. Booker’s 25 opportunities (19 handoffs and six targets) were more than Anderson has seen in any game this season. CFF’s third-highest-graded draft-eligible running back a year ago, Booker has earned PFF’s third-highest rushing grade over the last three weeks. He will be running behind the fourth-highest-graded run blocking unit in a Sunday Night Hammer spot, against a Raiders run defense grading 20th-best and allowing the fourth-worst yards-per-carry (4.8).
RB Mark Ingram – New Orleans Saints, $6,700
Last week was a disaster for Ingram backers, as he played only six snaps and was benched mid-way through the first quarter for fumbling. The plan was to re-insert him into the game, but Tim Hightower was allegedly running too well. Hightower earned our worst rushing grade of Week 8, by far, while averaging 3.9 yards. Whether he ran well or not, Ingram’s high-profile benching and talk of the Saints’ commitment to a backfield committee is sure to scare down his ownership rate. Head coach Sean Payton saying Hightower deserves more snaps could send more investment in his direction than Ingram’s.
The Saints have a healthy 27.8-point implied total and, despite their well-earned reputation for road game futility, have averaged 28 points in their last two games away from the Superdome. They did it against defenses grading in the top-13, while San Francisco grades fourth-worst. The 49ers allow 69.9 plays per game, which helps to mitigate Ingram’s workload concerns. In a matchup against our 29th-graded run defense — which allows a league-worst 5.1 yards per carry, a league-high 36 handoffs per game, and the second-most fantasy points to running backs — Ingram is in a prime spot to exceed lowered expectations.
RB Darren Sproles – Philadelphia Eagles, $4,800
If we are looking for serious salary savings, and – with all due respect to Johnny Holton’s handoffs — to roster a player who will see a lot more than one touch, Sproles is an interesting play. His punt return prowess led to two touchdowns last year and brings a “double-dip” possibility into play if paired with the Eagles defense. Sproles only has one kickoff return, but with Josh Huff’s release, he could see work there as well. Philadelphia’s defense, with its second-highest pass rush grade, is a tough draw for Eli Manning — who melts down against pressure (four interceptions, 59.5 passer rating).
Sproles is more than a special teams dart-throw, to which his 82-percent of Week 8 snaps, 15 carries, and six targets can attest. Ryan Mathews may be the nominal “lead back,” but Eagles coaches’ actions speak loudest. The Giants and their refortified defensive line are stout against the run, surrendering 3.6 yards per attempt while facing the 12th-most handoffs on a per-game basis. However, New York allows the 10th-most receptions to running backs, including an average of 7.3 catches on nine targets – plus whatever it was Tavon Austin was doing in London – during three of their last four games. With the Giants allowing an NFL-high 71.4 plays per game, Sproles will busy.
WR Dez Bryant – Dallas Cowboys, $7,800
In his first action since Week 3, Bryant caught four of 11 PFF-charted targets for 113 yards, including a game-tying 22-yard touchdown late in the fourth quarter. His 19.2-yard aDOT (average depth of target) was deeper than all but one of the 17 wideouts who saw double-digit targets in Week 8, and his shortest reception went for 15 yards. With Prescott attempting nearly as many 20-plus-yard passes in his last two games (eight) as in his first five outings (nine), and the Browns at or near the top of the league in surrendering deep passes and long touchdowns, the big-play stars are aligned for the now-healthy Bryant.
Cleveland allows the 10th-most fantasy points per game to wideouts, and the last time they faced an alpha like Bryant playing with a quality quarterback, A.J. Green caught all eight targets for 169 yards and a score in Week 7. Joe Haden did not play in that game and Bryant will see his fair share of our 28th-graded cornerback. While he’s the Browns’ best cover man, Haden is several seasons removed from “shut-down” status. Pairing Bryant with his quarterback and the uber-chalky Elliott creates a unique lineup construction and will likely account for all of the Cowboys’ touchdowns in a game where they have a 28-point implied total.
WR Davante Adams – Green Bay Packers, $7,100
We want access to a matchup with the week’s highest projected total, and Adams – one of Green Bay’s only fully-healthy wideouts — offers a safe route to it and a solid pairing for Aaron Rodgers. Speaking of routes, he’s run 102 of them in the past two games alone. The Packers don’t have a running game and aren’t pretending to. Green Bay’s nominal number three wideout has seen a whopping 30 targets over the last two weeks and is averaging 12.5 catches, 105.5 yards, and a touchdown in each game. No other receiver has more targets, catches, or touchdowns over that span, and only two have more receiving yards.
The probability of Green Bay’s passing offense remaining as voluminous and successful when the Colts come to town is high. Indianapolis’ pass rush grades 25th-best and their coverage ranks dead last. Adams has been lining up all over lately, but typically runs more than half of his routes on the left side. He will see quite a bit of Patrick Robinson, our 87th-graded coverage cornerback. Adams will be popular after a red-hot couple of weeks, but is well-positioned even if all Packers pass-catchers play full games, and has upside from there is any need to leave the likely shootout early.
WR Mike Wallace – Baltimore Ravens, $6,600
Wallace has benefited from the absence of Steve Smith Sr. His average targets-per-game shot up from 5.8 in his first four, to 10.7 starting with the Week 5 game in which Smith only played 13 snaps. Smith practiced in limited fashion on Thursday for the first time, and the uncertainty over how much he plays – of if he plays at all – will hold down Wallace’s ownership rate. It is worth noting that Wallace’s scoring average in half-PPR formats was less than a full point higher when Smith was out (12.8 per game) than when he played the first four weeks (12.0). Smith impacts Wallace’s opportunity, but any exaggerated worry is exploitable.
As he’s always been, Wallace is dependent on big plays. He scored three times in the first four weeks while Smith played, and had 15.0-yards-per-reception and a 16.2-yard aDOT. The Steelers allow the third-most receiving yards and fantasy points to wideouts on a per-game basis. Their pass coverage grades 22nd-best and Wallace will run most of his routes against ominously-named rookie cornerback Artie Burns – who grades 103rd of 112 at his position. The Ravens’ bye week should also help a still-recovering Joe Flacco, who was back to his deep-ball ways (15.2 percent) in their last two games, versus a 10.2-percent deep rate before then.
WR Stefon Diggs – Minnesota Vikings, $6,500
Diggs finally got on track last week, even as the Vikings unraveled on national television. He saw a career-high 12 targets, hauling in eight for 76 yards and a score. If Sam Bradford didn’t overthrow him on what would have been a long touchdown, things would look even better. Diggs would also be a lot more popular this week. Also draining his ownership percentage is teammate Kyle Rudolph in a dream matchup against a Lions defense hemorrhaging points to fantasy tight ends. Tacking Diggs onto a stack with Sam Bradford will make sense to folks until they think about the “playing “”(player-popup)Sam Bradford”:/players/sam-bradford-11617” part.
Finally over groin and hamstring injuries that plagued him since a two-week start to the season in which he averaged nine targets, eight catches, 142.5 yards, and scored a touchdown, Diggs will face a Detroit defense grading 25th in coverage. At least as important to the Vikings and their league-worst pass blocking is the Lions’ pass rush grades 31st-best. Cornerback matchup aficionados may be worried about the potential for Detroit’s top cornerback, Darius Slay. Fortunately for Diggs, Slay rarely goes into the slot (10 coverage snaps) – which is where the Vikings’ wideout runs 51.1-percent of routes.
TE Jimmy Graham – Seattle Seahawks, $6,700
Graham may not have the highest median projection among tight ends, and Kyle Rudolph tops him from a point-per-dollar standpoint — but after an epic letdown in a high-profile revenge spot in New Orleans, ownership will be elsewhere. Priced second-highest at his position and $100 more expensive than Week 8 standout Travis Kelce, Graham offers an interesting combination of contrarianism and ceiling at an inherently volatile position. With few standouts available, as several high-end tight ends are on bye, boarding the S.S. Graham when most are jumping off could be profitable.
The Seahawks ran the fewest plays last week (54), which helps explain why Graham’s targets went nine, eight, nine, and nine in the previous four games, to only four in New Orleans. His snap percentage (89.1) was fine. Now Graham is back in Seattle, where he’s averaged six catches, 94.5 yards, and has one touchdown in his last two games. The Seahawks’ 25.5-point implied total is healthy and, although the Bills allow an ownership-deterring 10th-fewest points per game to tight ends, they have faced the third-fewest targets per game to the position and just allowed a pretty nice game to Rob Gronkowski.
TE Antonio Gates – San Diego Chargers, $5,500
Gates is pretty much shot, there’s no denying that. On a good day, our 52nd-graded tight end runs like he has a rock in his shoe. However, he is playing more than at any point this season, as he’s seen his snap percentage go from 35, to 47, to 51, and finally to 68 last week. It was the first time he has played a higher rate of snaps than rookie Hunter Henry since Week 1, and he out-targeted his understudy eight-to-three. Gates only amassed 33 yards against the Broncos, but he scored – and that’s what we’re looking for a repeat of in a game with the fourth-highest projected total on the slate.
San Diego will need to make hay through the air against our 11th-highest graded run defense. The Titans’ pass coverage grades 26th-best and they allow the ninth-most fantasy points to tight ends on a per-game basis. With Travis Benjamin questionable with a knee injury and Tyrell Williams dealing with knee woes of his own – Williams is an excellent play if he can go – other Chargers’ pass-catchers will need to pick up the slack. We can expect more two-tight-end sets if Henry (knee) plays. With the Titans ranking fifth-highest in blitz rate (38.9 percent), and Philip Rivers 17-of-23 for 265 yards and a score to Gates and Hunter against blitzes, the old war horse has two-touchdown upside and an affordable salary.