NFL DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Values Week 14
This is the final week for byes, as we have the Bears, Falcons, Saints, Packers, Colts and Commanders all off the slate, so we’re looking at another pretty condensed player pool for the main slate. One game is already sticking out as a likely shootout with the Vikings / Lions sitting at a 52.5 game total, while no other game on the main slate is over 48 currently with just one other (CLE/CIN) at over 46. It’s also another week with big QB changes as Jimmy Garoppolo is out for the year, Lamar Jackson is out some time with a strained PCL, and the Texans are done with the Kyle Allen experiment and are going back to Davis Mills. With plenty of questionable guys to monitor including a big one in Trevor Lawrence (foot) and two injured Seattle RBs, let’s dive in to figuring out the week 14 DFS NFL puzzle.
This is a weekly NFL article that can hopefully show you some lineup-building tools on RG as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.
This Week’s FanDuel & DraftKings NFL DFS Projections Preview
There are ways to get edges in DFS NFL, such as stacking a WR or TE with your QB, correlating a RB or WR on the opposing team of your stack, and targeting volume guys with high floors who get goal-line carries and/or endzone targets that can maximize their ceilings with TDs. I will be focusing on the “main slate” for the week, but you can still find plenty of analysis for the Thursday and Monday NFL games on RG, and feel free to leave suggestions in the comments sections for any strategies/tools you’d like to see here!
This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for NFL, including our industry-leading NFL DFS projections and NFL lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
NFL DFS Injury Roundup
Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the week, it’s important to get a feel for any injuries that we’ll need to monitor as the week goes on and how these injuries will affect our builds if a questionable player ends up out. For cash games, I’m looking for safety, volume, and upside. I tend to avoid players who are dealing with an injury, as they are more likely to aggravate it or possibly have their snaps limited compared to someone coming into the week fully healthy with a full week of practice under their belts.
Looking at The Situation Room we can see who is still out for Week 134, how likely guys who missed week 13 are going to play in Week 14, and any new injuries that we’ll need to monitor ahead of Sunday and how it will affect lineups if certain questionable players end up sitting.
Important guys on the main slate who are out for Week 14 include Jimmy Garoppolo, Lamar Jackson, Elijah Mitchell, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Treylon Burks, Nico Collins, Brandin Cooks, Courtland Sutton, Kadarius Toney, Hayden Hurst, Mecole Hardman, Anthony Schwartz, and KJ Hamler.
Kenneth Walker and Deejay Dallas are doubtful.
JK Dobbins, James Washington, and Racey McMath have been activated off IR for this week.
NFL Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
Let’s take a look at NFL Starting Lineups to see any major lineup news, such as guys missing or interesting depth chart changes (main slate for this article) as well as which teams or games I’m looking to stack. This page is my favorite tool for NFL DFS as we get betting lines, DFS salaries, projected ownership, and updated depth charts that we can refer to as we build our lineups or see what is affected by any news throughout the week. Make sure to take advantage of this page to keep you up to date on a variety of beneficial DFS info.
- With Jimmy G done for the year Brock Purdy will take over at QB for SF and looked more than serviceable in his win over Miami last week, so guys like CMC, Samuel, and Aiyuk are definitely still in play.
- The Texans are going back to Davis Mills at QB, but I want no part of this Houston offense in a road game with Dallas especially with Cooks and Collins both out leaving a WR group of Dorsett, Moore, and Rodgers.
- Tyler Huntley will take over at QB for the Ravens with Lamar out but draws a tough road matchup with Pittsburgh, although he does provide a solid floor with his rushing ability.
- The Lions look to have unleashed Swift, giving him 18 touches last week compared to just 11 for Williams, so he sits atop the depth chart at RB now, while Jameson Williams should be more involved this week after playing just a handful of snaps last week.
- Even with Michael Carter returning, I’d expect Zonovan Knight to remain on top of the RB depth chart for the Jets, while their opponent the Bills could see a big shake up at RB after James Cook out-touched Devin Singletary 20 to 13 last week and likely sits atop their RB depth chart again this week.
- CLE/CIN has some lineup news with David Njoku on track to return, while Hayden Hurst is likely out, so Wilcox and Asiasi will be the top TEs for CIN. Anthony Schwartz is also out for CLE while Joe Mixon has cleared concussion protocol and will be back this week.
- Courtland Sutton is out for Denver, so Kendall Hinton and Brandon Johnson are the likely WRs behind Jeudy this week while Greg Dulcich should see plenty of targets as well.
- My favorite game stack is by far MIN/DET, as both teams are full of high-upside play makers, and it’s the only game with a projected total above 50 right now.
NFL DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for injuries, projected lineups, and strong stacks to consider, let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
On FanDuel:
- It feels gross to say, but I’m actually leaning towards Jared Goff ($7,100) in cash games, as I want a lot of exposure to MIN / DET, his price is excellent, and he’s been solid over his last four games with no INTs along with four TDs over his last two games, and he should get more snaps from a big weapon in Jameson Williams. Kirk Cousins ($7,500) is just a little bit pricier but still comes at a nice discount to the top QBs if you prefer to target MIN more in this matchup.
- Deshaun Watson ($7,000) was awful in his first game back and is now $1,000 cheaper and should have a positive game script against CIN to air it out. Tyler Huntley ($7,000) is at the same price as Watson, and both are two of my favorite GPP QBs, as their rushing ability gives them immense ceilings.
- At RB Christian McCaffrey ($8,500) is a priority for me this week, as his price should be about $1k higher, and it only went up $300 from last week even after going for almost 25 FP. Purdy was checking down to him a ton, as he saw 10 targets to go along with his 17 carries, and he should remain heavily involved with Mitchell out of the picture. I also really like Saquon Barkley ($8,200) in a big divisional matchup with Philly, as he too like CMC is looking at a 20+ touch floor, and if you want to spend a little more to get Dalvin Cook ($8,700) in a better matchup with DET, I’m all for it.
- DAndre Swift ($7,200), Tony Pollard ($7,500), and Miles Sanders ($7,100) are my favorite RB’s in the $7k price range, while D’Onta Foreman ($6,900) and James Cook ($6,100) are my favorite super cheap RBs.
- At WR, I will do my best to fit in Amon-Ra St. Brown ($8,600) and Justin Jefferson ($9,300), but it’s going to be tough at those prices. I will certainly have at least one of those two in cash games. Garrett Wilson ($7,200) is still too cheap regardless of the matchup with Buffalo, as his price only went up $600 from last week after seeing 15 targets, and he will definitely remain in my cash game lineup, while Deebo Samuel ($7,100) only went up $300 from last week and remains an excellent play with huge upside. DJ Moore ($6,900) went off with Darnold at QB last game and is still at an excellent price in a great matchup with Seattle and will likely round out my cash game WRs.
- Some more WRs I like for the price on FD include Gabe Davis ($6,200), Zay Jones ($6,300), Adam Thielen ($6,400), Jerry Jeudy ($6,500), DJ Chark ($5,700), and Robert Woods ($5,800).
- At TE, I’m really liking Greg Dulcich ($5,400) this week, as Sutton is likely out, and the Broncos will have to throw it a ton to keep up with KC. DEN is using Dulcich like a WR, and coming off an 8 target, 85 yard game last week, I’m expecting him to match that at minimum this week, and he could smash his salary if he finds the end zone once or twice. George Kittle ($5,900) has really struggled his last two games but is still crazy cheap for a player of his caliber, and I can’t blame anyone who takes the risk on him in cash games at that price.
- The Cowboys ($5,200) are by far my favorite defense this week if you can afford them, and for cheaper I also like the 49ers ($4,600) and Steelers ($3,800).
Looking at DraftKings:
- I’m still likely going with Jared Goff ($5,600) as my cash game QB, as I want to spend the salary at RB and WR this week, while Kirk Cousins ($6,100) is also a great cash game option for cheap. Deshaun Watson ($6,400) and Tyler Huntley ($5,500) remain my favorite GPP QBs, and I will also include Russell Wilson ($5,100), as he will have to air it out a ton this week.
- With the savings at QB, I’m jamming in Christian McCaffrey ($8,500) and Dalvin Cook ($7,300) as my top two RBs for cash games on DK, and I will likely use DAndre Swift ($5,800) in the flex for more exposure to MIN / DET. D’Onta Foreman ($5,400) and James Cook ($4,600) remain other cheap RBs to target in GPPs or even cash games if you need the savings.
- At WR Garrett Wilson ($5,900) remains way too cheap and is the first guy I’m locking in for cash games, while Amon-Ra St. Brown ($7,800) is still somehow under $8k, and I will be stacking him with Goff. DJ Moore ($5,500) is Darnold’s favorite weapon and only went up $500 after going for over 23 FP in their last game together, so he will round out my cash game WRs. Deebo Samuel ($6,100), Gabe Davis ($5,300), Adam Thielen ($4,900), Jerry Jeudy ($5,400), DJ Chark ($4,300), and Robert Woods ($4,500) are other cheap WRs I’m liking this week.
- At TE, I’m all over Greg Dulcich ($3,400) for almost minimum price, and I’m expecting him to be the highest owned TE in cash games for good reason. David Njoku ($3,900), Evan Engram ($3,300), and George Kittle ($4,300) are other cheap TEs I really like if you want a lower-owned cheap TE in cash games.
- The Cowboys ($3,800) are my favorite D, but if you need the savings, I like the 49ers ($3,200), Steelers ($2,800), and Panthers ($2,200).
Keep checking LineupHQ for any projections changes throughout the week, as the best p/$ plays could change in an instant if someone gets ruled out or some other type of news makes someone likely to see more or less volume.
NFL DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
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Good luck this week!
Image Credit: Imagn