NFL DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Values Week 5
Another wild week of NFL DFS in the books and hopefully you had a bunch of Lions and Seahawks last week as seemingly every starter in that game went off. Guys like Austin Ekeler, Miles Sanders, and Josh Jacobs had huge ceiling games. Dameon Pierce broke out with a long TD, and the Steelers finally benched Mitch Trubisky for Kenny Pickett, so we’ll see how he and that offense fares in a tough road matchup against Buffalo this week. We have plenty of news still to come and injuries to monitor in to the weekend, so make sure to stay up to date and be ready to adjust right up to lock, as it’s looking like there could be a few game day calls on injured players that could really shake up the slate.
This is a weekly NFL article that can hopefully show you some lineup building tools on RG as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.
This Week’s FanDuel & DraftKings NFL DFS Projections Preview
There are ways to get edges in DFS NFL, such as stacking a WR or TE with your QB, correlating an RB or WR on the opposing team of your stack, and targeting volume guys with high floors who get goal line carries and/or endzone targets that can maximize their ceilings with TDs. I will be focusing on the “main slate” for the week, but you can still find plenty of analysis for the Thursday and Monday NFL games on RG, and feel free to leave suggestions in the comments sections for any strategies / tools you’d like to see here!
This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for NFL, including our industry-leading NFL DFS projections and NFL lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
NFL DFS Injury Roundup
Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the week, it’s important to get a feel for any injuries that we’ll need to monitor as the week goes on and how these injuries will affect our builds if a questionable player ends up out. For cash games I’m looking for safety, volume, and upside so I tend to avoid players who are dealing with an injury, as they are more likely to aggravate it or possibly have their snaps limited compared to someone coming into the week fully healthy with a full week of practice under their belts.
Looking at The Situation Room we can see who is still out for week 5, how likely guys who missed week 4 are to play week 5, and any new injuries that we’ll need to monitor ahead of week 5 and how it will affect lineups if certain questionable players end up sitting.
Important guys on the main slate who are out for week 5 include Dak Prescott, Tua Tagovailoa, Jameis Winston, Mac Jones, Michael Thomas, Keenan Allen, DJ Chark, Jahan Dotson, Kyle Pitts, Treylon Burks, D’Andre Swift, Cordarrelle Patterson, DeAndre Hopkins, Jamison Crowder, Brevin Jordan, Jonnu Smith, Dawson Knox, Cameron Brate, Justice Hill, Quintez Cephus, Laviksa Shenault, Chris Moore, and Van Jefferson.
We have a ton of questionable guys including David Montgomery, Alvin Kamara, CeeDee Lamb, Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jakobi Meyers, Josh Palmer, Jarvis Landry, Julio Jones, Rondale Moore, Russell Gage, Zay Jones, Isaiah McKenzie, Breshad Perriman, Tony Pollard, Ken Walker, Logan Thomas, Jauan Jennings, and Boston Scott.
The Lions and Saints players’ statuses are what I’m most interested in as we saw the volume Jamaal Williams, Josh Reynolds, and TJ Hockenson got as the top offensive weapons, while the Saints have a great matchup at home with Seattle, so guys like Chris Olave, Jarvis Landry, and Mark Ingram could be very appealing plays if Kamara and/or Thomas sit again.
NFL Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
Let’s take a look at NFL Starting Lineups to see any major lineup news, such as guys missing or interesting depth chart changes (main slate for this article) as well as which teams or games I’m looking to stack. This page is my favorite tool for NFL DFS as we get betting lines, DFS salaries, projected ownership, and updated depth charts that we can refer to as we build our lineups or see what is affected by any news throughout the week, so make sure to take advantage of this page to keep you up to date on a variety of beneficial DFS info.
Cordarrelle Patterson went on the IL with a knee injury, so we see Tyler Allgeier at the top of the depth chart for ATL followed by Caleb Huntley. Both guys saw 10 carries last week, so we could see a pretty even split in work between them unless one gets hot early, but they likely won’t be on my DFS radar this week in a tough road matchup against the solid run defense of the Bucs.
The biggest change at QB is Kenny Pickett now starting for the Steelers, and although he has a very tough matchup on the road in Buffalo, I still like him for GPPs, as he’s extremely cheap on both sites, has rushing TD upside as shown by his two short TDs last week, and the Steelers will likely be playing from behind most of this game. Pickett has the weapons to put up a solid performance.
We also don’t see Treylon Burks and Jahan Dotson, as both have new injuries that will likely keep them out this week and potentially longer, so we should see a ton of targets for Robert Woods, Terry McLaurin, and Curtis Samuel this week. Brian Robinson came off the NFI list and should be in the RB mix for Washington making all three of Gibson, McKissic, and Robinson pretty much unusable until we see how carries and touches are split.
NFL DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for injuries, projected lineups, and strong stacks to consider, let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
On FanDuel:
- The early top p/$ projected QBs are Jalen Hurts ($8,600) and Josh Allen ($9,000), which makes sense, as we don’t have Lamar, Mahomes, Burrow, Murray, Wilson, Carr, or Rodgers on this main slate, so Hurts and Allen will likely draw even more ownership than usual. I think I’m leaning towards Hurts in cash, as he’s slightly cheaper, has more healthy weapons, and has a better chance of having to throw more, as the Bills are huge favorites at home. Josh Allen will definitely be without Crowder but could also be without McKenzie, who is in the concussion protocol, and Gabriel Davis might still be dealing with his ankle injury with two disappointing weeks in a row.
- Lower-owned cheap QBs that I think could have nice weeks include Kirk Cousins, Matthew Stafford, Tom Brady, Trevor Lawrence, and Teddy Bridgewater.
- At RB, we see Leonard Fournette ($7,800) as the early top p/$ projected RB, as he has a lot going for him this week as a big home favorite in a nice matchup with Atlanta. He only has 1 TD on the year but is still averaging around 12 FPPG on FanDuel, so if he can punch in a couple TDs this week he should smash his sub-$8k price tag. Dalvin Cook ($7,300) is another RB at a discounted price tag as he too only has 1 TD on the seaso, but back at home as big favorites over the Bears, he should get a sizeable workload, and like Fournette, if he starts finding the endzone, this will be the cheapest price we will see him at for a long time.
- Some other cheap RBs that I like this week include Breece Hall ($6,600), Jeff Wilson ($6,500), and Rhamondre Stevenson ($6,000) while Najee Harris ($6,600) and James Conner ($6,700) are a couple of my favorite GPP RBs.
- At WR, my favorite p/$ plays are Mike Evans ($7,500), Deebo Samuel ($7,300), CeeDee Lamb ($7,200), DK Metcalf ($7,100), Chris Olave ($6,900), Tyler Lockett ($6,800), DeVonta Smith ($6,600), Terry McLaurin ($6,500), Robert Woods ($5,900), Darnell Mooney ($5,800), George Pickens ($5,500), and Elijah Moore ($5,300).
- At TE we see TJ Hockenson all the way up to $7,000 after his monster performance at $5,400 last week, and he will only be in play for me if two or three of Swift, St. Brown, and Chark are out again. Zach Ertz ($5,900) is also at a great price still with four very strong games so far this year, and you know he’d love to put up a big game against his former team, and I’d also consider Tyler Higbee ($5,500), who has been a target monster for the Rams coming off 14 of them last week.
- The Jaguars ($4,600) and 49ers ($4,400) are my favorite expensive defenses, while the Patriots ($3,600) and Chargers ($3,900) are a couple cheaper defenses to consider.
Looking at DraftKings:
- Trevor Lawrence ($5,600), Marcus Mariota ($5,400), and Tom Brady ($6,000) are the top 3 p/$ projected QBs, and between those three, I’m liking Lawrence the most in a great bounce back spot at home against a Texans defense that has allowed 57 points over their last two games. Lawrence also has a good chance to get a nice weapon in Zay Jones back and the Jaguars have one of the higher team totals of the slate at just over 25 currently, so for $5,600, we should see a pretty safe floor and a potentially elite ceiling for Lawrence this week.
- Like FD Leonard Fournette ($6,900) is the current top p/$ projected RB, while Dalvin Cook ($7,300) is still in the top five, and both are looking like solid values on DK as well as FD. Breece Hall ($5,400) is the second highest p/$ projected RB, and this could be the last week we see him under $6k if he continues to get 20+ touches a game, and I’m expecting a lot of people to jump on him in cash games at this price. Jeff Wilson ($5,500) is also looking like a great play for the price, as the Niners should lean on him as road favorites in Carolina, and I have to mention Raheem Mostert for just $5,000, as he looks like the RB1 for Miami now and will smash his price if he can find the endzone this week.
- At WR, my favorite p/$ plays are CeeDee Lamb ($7,000), Mike Evans ($6,900), DK Metcalf ($6,800), Jaylen Waddle ($6,700), Terry McLaurin ($6,200), Brandin Cooks ($6,100), DeVonta Smith ($6,000), Drake London ($5,900), Chris Olave ($5,700), Tyler Lockett ($5,600), DJ Moore ($5,200), Robert Woods ($5,200), Elijah Moore ($5,000), Darnell Mooney ($5,000), and George Pickens ($4,300). From this group Tyler Lockett is really standing out to me, as he’s back at the price that he was week 1 even after seeing 30 targets over his last three games, and with Metcalf likely seeing a lot of Lattimore coverage this week, Lockett is set up for a huge game and is one of my favorite plays on all sites.
- Tyler Higbee ($4,300) is my favorite TE with Pitts out, while David Njoku ($3,800), Dalton Schultz ($3,400), Irv Smith ($3,200), and Logan Thomas ($3,200) are my top TEs under $4k, and for under $5k, we still have Hockenson, Ertz, Goedert, Everett, and Freiermuth as very strong plays
- For defense I will be using the Jaguars ($3,400) and 49ers ($3,800) the most.
Keep checking LineupHQ for any projections changes throughout the week, as the best p/$ plays could change in an instant if someone gets ruled out or some other type of news makes someone likely to see more or less volume.
NFL DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough lineup decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
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Good luck this week!
Image Credit: Imagn