NFL First Look: Week 11 Preview

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2016-11-19 21:21:35

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The NFL First Look is complete with sortable odds, implied team totals, pace of play, DVOA rankings and each team’s projected starters to help you get an early start on the upcoming week.

Week 10 Thoughts

— Even though it was against the Browns, the Ravens’ defense is the real deal.
— After some success with Ty Montgomery in the backfield earlier in the year, the Packers gave James Starks most of the work at running back.
— If the Packers are going to make the playoffs, Aaron Rodgers needs to be perfect. Their defense has fallen apart the last few weeks.
— Marcus Mariota had another four touchdown game on Sunday. I’m a fan of Mariota, but touchdowns aren’t going to come that easy moving forward.
— Over the last three weeks, Stefon Diggs leads the NFL in receptions (34), targets (41), and receiving yards (320).
— Robert Kelley (aka Fat Rob) runs extremely hard. He will be a viable fantasy option in games where the Redskins are expected to be ahead.
— We’ve seen a lot of bad Jay Cutler games in his career, but that one is up there with the worst of them.
— Why couldn’t Alshon Jeffery gotten suspended a week earlier?
— Doug Martin did not look great in his return. Mike Evans is really the only play in this offense.
— Can we target anyone on the Chiefs? Running backs never get a full workload and their passing game is nearly impossible to predict.
— They are technically still alive, but the Panthers may have blown their playoff chances with a loss to the Chiefs at home.
— New DFS rule: Don’t trust Doug Pederson. After naming Darren Sproles the starter, Ryan Mathews and Wendell Smallwood both had more snaps and touches. Sad face emoji.
— Has there been a more boom or bust player than Julio Jones this season? The Falcons need Tevin Coleman back, as their running game is better as a two-headed monster.
— I would have rather watched an episode of Travis Kelce’s reality TV dating show than the Rams/Jets game. Oh, and paging Lance Kendricks.
— The Broncos won the game on a blocked extra point in which they returned for the two-point conversion. Such a strange rule.
— Even after a terrible first half, Drew Brees finished with 303 yards and three touchdowns against the Broncos. He is matchup-proof at home.
— Lamar Miller may not be a workhorse back anymore. Akeem Hunt and Alfred Blue combined for 16 touches against the Jaguars.
— Remember when everyone was picking the Jaguars to go to the playoffs? Surprisingly, their defense has been stout and they are still 2-7.
— Even though he didn’t have a big game against the Chargers, Jay Ajayi is the only Dolphins’ player on my radar moving forward.
— Melvin Gordon racked up another 29 touches. While he didn’t score a touchdown, his volume makes him a great play every week.
— Zeke, Zeke, Zeke! How good is this Cowboys’ team? I’ve been saying it for a while, but they have no choice now – can’t go back to Romo.
— The Steelers are still one of the best offenses in the NFL. It was nice seeing a game where both Le’Veon Bell and Antonio Brown went off.
— The Cardinals deserved to lose that game against the Niners. They are trying to hard to get Carson Palmer going. Give the ball to your best player.
— Target defenses, passing offenses, and running backs against the Niners. Do you know who they face this week? The Patriots, who are coming off of a loss.
— C.J. Prosise looks like he could use a few extra pounds on his frame, but he looked great against the Patriots. Also, Russell Wilson is officially back.
— Tommy Brady. Tomald, Tomathan Brady. All I needed was one touchdown to save my cash game lineups. Good bounce-back spot this week for the Patriots.
— The Bengals are in trouble. They may have to win out to make the playoffs. A lot of people picked them to go to the Super Bowl.
— Odell Beckham may be eccentric, but he continues to dominate in DFS at fairly low ownership.

Color Coding

1) Numbers in BLUE represent the “elite” category, in approximately the top 25th percentile.
2) Numbers in GREEN represent the “above-average” category, in approximately the top 50th percentile.
3) Numbers in YELLOW represent the “below-average” category, in approximately the bottom 50th percentile.
4) Numbers in RED represent the “poor” category, in approximately the bottom 25th percentile.

NFL Schedule & Vegas Lines

Implied Team Totals & DVOA Matchups

Note: The DVOA rankings in this chart are for the opponent of the offense listed in the first column.

Implied Team Totals & DvP Matchups

Note: The DvP rankings in this chart are for the opponent of the offense listed in the first column. They are also adjusted for strength of schedule.

Plays Per Game & Pace of Play