NFL Grind Down: Monday/Thursday
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NFL Grind Down, an all-encompassing preview of the week ahead in the NFL from a daily fantasy sports perspective. We’ll provide all the statistics, insights and analysis you need to set your lineups for this week’s contests.
Every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts. Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide a look at how each team fares against opposing offenses from a fantasy points allowed perspective and include some statistics for key players on each team as well.
Each contest is then analyzed team-by-team, with a focus on finding matchups to exploit and trends to follow. These breakdowns now feature “Matchup Rating,” which factors in projected point totals, pace, and offense versus defense data to compile an all-around rating that helps determine how favorable of a fantasy matchup each team has this week.
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| Washington Redskins | Kansas City Chiefs | |||||||||
 |  | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 49.5 | 21.25 | -7 | 49.5 | 28.25 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 23.7 | 13 | 11 | 6 | Offense | 31.0 | 3 | 12 | 1 | |
| Opp. Defense | 19.0 | 7 | 24 | 16 | Opp. Defense | 20.0 | 9 | 13 | 2 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 11 | 21 | 20 | 7 | Washington Redskins | 5 | 11 | 3 | 24 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Pryor | 19 | 10 | 0 | 116 | Hill | 22 | 16 | 2 | 253 | |
| Crowder | 18 | 13 | 0 | 113 | Conley | 9 | 6 | 0 | 98 | |
| Doctson | 3 | 1 | 1 | 52 | Wilson | 12 | 10 | 1 | 77 | |
| Reed | 14 | 11 | 0 | 84 | Kelce | 18 | 14 | 1 | 144 | |
Notable injuries and suspensions: Will be updated shortly
WAS Matchup Rating: 4.5
KC Matchup Rating: 7.0
Washington Redskins
Quarterback: The Redskins have some momentum coming into this game, as they thoroughly outplayed the Raiders on a national stage last week. Kirk Cousins looked a whole lot better than Derek Carr, which was a surprise after the first two weeks. Cousins will need to be at his best if the Redskins want to have a chance in this one, as the Chiefs are gaining momentum as possibly the best team in football. I’m not ready to pull that trigger just yet, but they are very good and have always been good at home. This is going to be a tough game for Washington. Given the limited options, you can consider Cousins on the prime time slates, but I will avoid him in full week contests.
Running Backs: I am actually happy that Chris Thompson owners got rewarded last week, especially on the short prime time slates. Everyone is going to go back to this well. His numbers are absurd and eye-popping this year, but the Redskins have reiterated that he will not be getting more touches. As of this moment, Thompson is averaging just nine touches per game. He is averaging 12.96 yards per touch. I don’t care who you are — no running back is keeping up that kind of pace. By contrast, Thompson averaged just 6.03 yards per touch a year ago. While he still doesn’t come at any sort of exorbitant price tag, I think the fade is still the play here. He will be ridiculously highly owned, and a dud game is coming. Especially with Rob Kelley potentially returning here, there’s no reason to push the envelope, especially in a game where the Redskins have a 21 point team total and are seven point underdogs.
Pass Catchers: Terrelle Pryor has been one of the biggest busts in the league through three weeks, and I can’t endorse playing him in DFS right now. A lot of the passing game production has gone through the aforementioned Thompson, and the other wide receivers have stepped up at various times. With Pryor likely to draw a lot of Marcus Peters, the other guys might soak up the targets once again. You almost have to take a shot on someone on the short slates, with Jamison Crowder being the safest option. He caught all six of his targets a week ago, though the yardage total wasn’t all that great. Jordan Reed once again is up in the air (shocker), and Vernon Davis would enter the conversation as a value play if Reed can’t go. Davis played well in Reed’s absence against the Raiders.
The Takeaway: I will almost certainly be underweight with my Washington exposure this week. Chris Thompson is a total fade for me, as the touches aren’t going any higher, and his per-touch production has been full of positive variance so far. Get off the train before everyone else and enjoy your profits. Terrelle Pryor is off limits until he shows us something. Perhaps the best play in the receiving corps is Jamison Crowder. He is a safe cash game option. The tight end position needs to be monitored thanks to the uncertain injury status of Jordan Reed. This is a challenging week with a lot of injuries in the late games.
Kansas City Chiefs
Quarterback: Are the Chiefs the best team in football? I do believe that they have been playing over their heads, and for that matter, so has Washington’s defense. It will be interesting to see which side wins out in this game. I am still not on board with Alex Smith as a DFS option, as he reverted to his usual game manager role with just 155 passing yards in last week’s win over the Chargers. The Chiefs don’t make Smith throw the ball more than he has to, and that won’t change this week. Washington is allowing just 210 yards per game through the air, so a big yardage total is unlikely. I can see targeting Smith as a safe play on the shorter slates, but I actually prefer Cousins on the other side for GPPs, simply because he is likely going to be throwing the ball more often.
Running Backs: Kareem Hunt is good, folks. He leads the league in rushing by more than 100 yards… through just three weeks! He has fewer carries than some other backs, too. His numbers are elite across the board, and it’s impossible to envision fading him on the shorter slates. Play the man and count your money at the end of the game. Hunt is the ideal Monday Night hammer.
Pass Catchers: The Chiefs don’t have much for wide receivers outside of Tyreek Hill, so expect Josh Norman to trail him around the field this week. That takes Hill off the board, as his floor is legitimately zero against Norman. Hill is dependent on the big play, and he could certainly break one here, but I won’t be paying the premium for him. Travis Kelce is the logical (and only) spot here, and he will likely get over-looked because he completely disappeared a week ago. Conveniently, the Redskins rank 30th in the league in DVOA against tight ends so far this year. They have a spot spot there, and Kelce should be targeted heavily in this game.
UPDATE – For the two game slate on Monday and Thursday, it’s tough to completely fade Tyreek Hill, especially in tournaments. I still think he will draw more of Norman than some media outlets are suggesting, and I will likely be underweight with my exposure to him, but I see the upside if you want to take that route.
The Takeaway: My favorite plays for the Chiefs are the emerging stud in Kareem Hunt along with Travis Kelce. With Josh Norman likely shadowing Tyreek Hill, Hill is the least likely player to land on my rosters. Hunt and Kelce should post fine games, but Alex Smith doesn’t have the upside for my liking. I suppose you could target one of the fringe WR’s given the matchup, but there aren’t enough targets to make any of them safe.
Thursday Night Quick Hits
1) This should be one of the more entertaining Thursday games of the year. The Patriots have allowed 300+ yards passing and 2+ touchdowns to every quarterback they have faced this season. Most of their games have turned into shootouts, which enhances the value not only of opposing quarterbacks, but also of Tom Brady. Both are elite options on this slate, and I prefer both of them over the Monday quarterback options.
2) Doug Martin returns from suspension for the Bucs, but don’t expect him to simply take over as the full-fledged starter. Jacquizz Rodgers played well last week, and we might see a 50/50 time share in his return. I want to wait to see how that unfolds before I dive in.
3) The Patriots’ backfield remains as muddled as ever. The Patriots have just been passing the ball a lot, and James White benefited by catching ten passes. If you think they can get out to a lead here, Mike Gillislee is the guy you want. If you think they will be behind, White is the better option. Both are better for GPPs than for cash games, and White is preferred on DraftKings and FantasyDraft with the full point PPR scoring. Kareem Hunt is still the top RB on this slate by a mile.
4) Chris Hogan seems to be turning into the top receiver for Tom Brady. Brandin Cooks has the yardage and the explosive plays, but Hogan has been a steady contributor and has already scored four touchdowns this year. Hogan is a fine cash game target against the Bucs, while Cooks is your big play threat.
5) The Patriots have shown zero ability to stop the pass, and both Mike Evans and DeSean Jackson are in play as elite options in all formats.
6) This two game slate is absolutely loaded at tight end, with Kelce, Reed, and Gronkowski all available. Gronk is the de facto top option as always, but I have no problems if you want to pivot to Kelce for a little salary savings or Reed for a risk/reward play. Both Tampa Bay tight ends scored in Week 4, but they carry much more risk.
7) I don’t trust either defense in this game, and the Chiefs are my favorite defensive selection on the two game slate.