NFL Grind Down: Monday/Thursday
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NFL Grind Down, an all-encompassing preview of the week ahead in the NFL from a daily fantasy sports perspective. We’ll provide all the statistics, insights and analysis you need to set your lineups for this week’s contests.
Every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts. Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide a look at how each team fares against opposing offenses from a fantasy points allowed perspective and include some statistics for key players on each team as well.
Each contest is then analyzed team-by-team, with a focus on finding matchups to exploit and trends to follow. These breakdowns now feature “Matchup Rating,” which factors in projected point totals, pace, and offense versus defense data to compile an all-around rating that helps determine how favorable of a fantasy matchup each team has this week.
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| Washington Redskins | Philadelphia Eagles | |||||||||
 |  | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.5 | 48.5 | 22 | -4.5 | 48.5 | 26.5 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 23.4 | 14 | 7 | 10 | Offense | 27.5 | 6 | 9 | 5 | |
| Opp. Defense | 20.3 | 9 | 27 | 1 | Opp. Defense | 22.6 | 19 | 20 | 7 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 22 | 4 | 26 | 10 | Washington Redskins | 17 | 14 | 4 | 27 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Pryor | 29 | 16 | 1 | 209 | Jeffery | 48 | 24 | 2 | 317 | |
| Crowder | 24 | 17 | 0 | 121 | Agholor | 30 | 20 | 4 | 321 | |
| Doctson | 9 | 4 | 2 | 90 | Smith | 25 | 14 | 1 | 210 | |
| Reed | 24 | 18 | 0 | 142 | Ertz | 53 | 34 | 4 | 405 | |
Notable injuries and suspensions: Will be updated on Sunday morning when we have final injury reports
WAS Matchup Rating: 5.5
PHI Matchup Rating: 7.0
Washington Redskins
Quarterback: Vegas generally has a lot of respect for the Redskins, so their implied team total of 22 points is kind of a surprise on the low end here. I would have expected it to be a couple points higher. Kirk Cousins has been steady this year and is coming off a 330 yard performance against the 49ers. This is obviously a tougher task on the road on Monday night against a tough Eagles squad, so Cousins is not a high priority play for me. You can easily avoid him on the full week slates. He would normally be an option on the two game prime time slates, but the other three quarterbacks on those slates are Matt Ryan, Tom Brady, and Carson Wentz, so it is not like we are devoid of options there, either.
Running Backs: The Redskins have been adamant that they are not going to expand the role for Chris Thompson, but he surprisingly got 16 carries in the run game last week. He didn’t look great on those carries, though, barely averaging two yards per tote. Thompson is always going to make his production happen in the passing game, and he turned four catches into over 100 yards receiving. Because of the uncertain touches and the need for him to break a big play to be viable, the risk is higher than a lot of people believe here, and Thompson has been a beneficiary of positive variance so far. I am off him this week, especially since it looks like Rob Kelley is trending toward a return. Samaje Perine has not gotten enough work to make a difference.
Pass Catchers: Part of the reason why Cousins’ success has been a bit of a surprise is because he doesn’t have a reliable pass catcher to throw the ball to. Jamison Crowder and Terrelle Pryor have been relative disappointments. Jordan Reed can’t stay healthy. A majority of the production has gone through Thompson. You can play Cousins on his own without pairing him with a pass catcher, which is what I probably would do, even in tournaments. There isn’t a reliable play here. Now they are talking about expanding the role for Josh Doctson. This is a mess. No wide receiver had more than 40 receiving yards last week even though Cousins threw for well over 300 yards.
The Takeaway: There aren’t a ton of strong individual plays on this team, because the Redskins do a good job of spreading the ball around. Kirk Cousins is fine, but he gets dwarfed by the other quarterbacks on the prime time slate. If you want to take a GPP shot on one of the wide receivers or Chris Thompson, I understand that, but I wouldn’t do it on the full week slates. Those plays are better served for the prime time Sun/Mon or Mon/Thu slates.
Philadelphia Eagles
Quarterback: Carson Wentz has been one of the best stories of the 2017 NFL season, as he ranks fifth in the league in passing yards and has been nothing short of fantastic in most games. The Eagles are coming off a solid Thursday night win over the Panthers, and they will have quite a few extra days to prepare for a Monday game. I expect Wentz and his teammates to have a great game plan here and would choose Wentz over Cousins if attempting to choose between the two signal callers in this game. Wentz is averaging 264 passing yards per game and has 13 touchdowns in six weeks. He can be used with confidence on a weekly basis right now.
Running Backs: While the Eagles have gotten steady production out of Wentz, the same cannot be said for the running game. This unit is very hard to predict, and now it sounds like Wendell Smallwood will be back in the mix this week. If you are playing on FanDuel, LeGarrette Blount is probably still the best option given the half-PPR format along with the likelihood of a touchdown being greater for him. In full PPR formats, Smallwood can be used as a risk/reward GPP option. There isn’t a slam dunk play, and you could certainly avoid the whole group if you want to. The problem is that you have to play someone on the prime time slates, and running back is probably the weakest position on those slates.
Pass Catchers: Alshon Jeffery caught just three passes for 38 yards the first time these teams met, but he should fare better this time around with Josh Norman ruled out for Washington. Both Nelson Agholor and Zach Ertz had huge games, though Agholor’s was largely due to a big play on a busted coverage. Ertz is your strongest option here, and he has been a force all season. He was quiet against the Panthers last week with just two catches, but both of them went for touchdowns. Agholor is a nice risk/reward GPP play on the shorter slates.
The Takeaway: This offense is cooking, but the matchup isn’t super great this week. Wentz and Ertz are my favorite targets, while others are in play as potential values on the shorter slates. Nelson Agholor and the running backs fit that mold, but the backfield will be more crowded with the likely return of Wendell Smallwood. It will be interesting to see how this game plays out. If the Eagles get a lead, LeGarrette Blount could be used as a hammer in the second half.
Thursday Night Quick Hits
1) To put it simply, this is going to be an awful Thursday game between the Dolphins and Ravens. Jay Cutler is likely going to be out for Miami, and in a “sad but true” moment, Matt Moore actually provides more DFS potential than Cutler at this point. Moore helped lead the offense in the second half and looked better than Cutler has all year. I prefer both QBs from the Monday game, but Moore is a reasonable, lower cost alternative.
2) Don’t play Joe Flacco.
3) Jay Ajayi has been very underwhelming this year, and he somehow hasn’t scored a touchdown yet despite continuing to see heavy volume. I don’t love the matchup with Brandon Williams back in the mix for Baltimore, but Ajayi is fine as a volume-based running back option.
4) The Baltimore backfield remains a time share between Alex Collins and Javorius Allen. Collins seems to be the better option for early down work, while Allen will be more involved if the Ravens happen to fall behind. Both are risk/reward GPP options, but I prefer Collins in a vacuum right now.
5) Keep an eye on the status of DeVante Parker. If he is out again, both Kenny Stills and Jarvis Landry will see an uptick in targets, and they combined for 20 targets and three touchdowns against the Jets.
6) Both Baltimore starting wide receivers are injured right now. Jeremy Maclin missed the Week 7 game, while Mike Wallace left early with a concussion. This group is a disaster, and the quarterback is a disaster. I suppose Chris Moore or Michael Campanaro could be used as a punt play if both Maclin and Moore are out. This situation is tough to gauge as of Monday morning.
7) I would recommend using a tight end from the Monday game, as the options are underwhelming here. Julius Thomas and Ben Watson are secondary options at best.
8) The Miami defense isn’t very good, but with Baltimore’s lousy offense these days, you can definitely make a case for the unit on a two game slate.