NFL Grind Down: Week 17 - Page Four

by LeoTPP Last Updated 2016-01-03 23:51:16

Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers

Minnesota Vikings						Green Bay Packers
Saturday – 1 p.m.						Lambeau Field
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		3	45.5	21.25				-3	45.5	24.25
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	23.0	15	31	5		Offense	23.7	13	26	10
Opp. Defense	20.2	10	15	21		Opp. Defense	19.3	6	11	18
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Green Bay Packers	15	13	11	24		Minnesota Vikings	14	9	13	15
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Wallace	69	38	2	457		Cobb	121	73	6	839
Diggs	82	51	4	725		Adams	88	46	1	429
Wright	47	32	0	450		Jones	86	46	8	788
Rudolph	72	49	5	495		#VALUE!

The Quick Grind

Notable injuries and suspensions: None

MIN Matchup Rating: 5.0
GB Matchup Rating: 5.0

Minnesota Vikings

Quarterback: The last time these teams played each other, the Packers pulled away late for a big win, and while Teddy Bridgewater (FD $6,800, DK $5,100) did post solid numbers, he did so at home and with quite a few plays run with a double-digit deficit. This week, in a very important game for both teams (the winner wins the division, but the loser faces Washington instead of Seattle in the first round), Bridgewater will get a chance to be as productive as he was last time around, but in more meaningful situations. It’s not the most likely of scenarios, as the Packers rank seventh in DVOA against the pass and Teddy has thrown for multiple touchdowns only twice this season, and has gone over 300 yards only twice as well. His impact may be more meaningful for the Vikings and their fans than for fantasy owners, as this doesn’t set up for a big DFS outing for the second-year passer.

Running Game: Adrian Peterson (FD $8,300, DK $7,200) is dealing with an injury, but should be good to go for such an important game, and unlike Bridgewater, he does have plenty of potential and upside for fantasy purposes. The Packers rank 18th in DVOA and 25th in numberFire’s NEP against the run, and while they’ve only allowed the 24th-most points to the position, they’ve historically struggled against the man known as AD. He didn’t have a huge game in a big loss the last time these teams met, but he did score, and has found the end zone in six of his last eight appearances. The Cardinals didn’t have to run the ball often with any one back last week, but prior to that, the Packers allowed 111 yards to Darren McFadden on only nine carries a couple of weeks ago, and a strong rushing performance from the Denver backs a couple of months in the past. There are a lot of cautionary tales as well, as many teams have struggled to establish the run against the Pack, but the Vikings will need to in order to win, and they have the ideal player to lean on for that objective. Peterson is a strong GPP play, and viable in cash contests as one of the rare workhorse backs with guaranteed volume.

Pass Catchers: Bridgewater has limited potential, and that also limits his receivers’ upside. Kyle Rudolph (FD $5,000, DK $3,500) had a big game the last time these teams met, but on the season, the Packers rank fourth in DVOA against tight ends. A repeat performance is unlikely. All of the Green Bay corners are strong, and Stefon Diggs (FD $5,700, DK $4,600) is the only Viking wideout worth writing home about, so he will be the focal point for the defensive schemes. His volume is far too inconsistent, and his ceiling hasn’t been the same since his breakout performances to start his season back in October. There are no strong plays among the Viking pass catchers in this all-important game.

The Takeaway: The Vikings will need Adrian Peterson to carry the offense if they want to hang with their division rivals. Thankfully, he’s more than capable, and if the defense keeps it close, he could deliver a huge game. His floor is low, so be cautious, but use him in GPP contests as your risk tolerance dictates.

Green Bay Packers

Quarterback: The Vikings played well against Aaron Rodgers (FD $8,300, DK $6,800) the last time these teams faced off, and forced him into a terribly inefficient stat line with only 212 yards and two scores. Since then, they’ve allowed Russell Wilson to score four touchdowns and Carson Palmer to throw for 310 yards and two scores. Otherwise, they’ve limited the damage from opposing passers, much like they have all season, ranking 20th in fantasy points allowed to opposing QBs and ranking 12th in DVOA against the pass. Rodgers really hasn’t been himself all season, with no more than two passing touchdowns in any of his last seven starts. His completion percentages and per-attempt averages have been lower than any he’s posted since his rookie season, and the offense has generally been disappointing and inefficient. A meaningful home game against a non-elite defense should be money in the bank for Rodgers, but with the way this season has gone, that’s nothing something we can trust. He’s viable in tournaments, but just cannot be trusted in cash games, as his floor is too low considering the expectations for other QBs.

Running Game: Eddie Lacy (FD $5,900, DK $4,500) is not 100% healthy, and has been a disappointment (like Rodgers and the rest of the offense) for most of the year, but this is his best chance to shine. The Vikings rank 20th in DVOA and NEP run defense, and despite strong DVP numbers, can be beaten on the ground. The absence of lineman Linval Joseph hurts, as well, especially when trying to stop a back who went for 100 yards in the last meeting between these teams. Since that Week 11 meeting, five other backs have gone for over 100 total yards against the Vikings, and at his price, 100 total yards and a score would be a very big day for Lacy. His median projection is probably more like 60 total yards with a 50% chance of a touchdown, but the ceiling is high, and with the way the Viking defense is trending as of late, I think he’s the best option on the Green Bay offense. He’s a secondary cash game option thanks to his bargain price, and a solid tournament play.

Pass Catchers: James Jones (FD $5,500, DK $3,800) does not have any noteworthy skills or abilities at this stage of his career, but he understands Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay offense, and as a result, he finds himself in good spots to catch passes more often than not. Over the past three weeks, his target count has gone from seven to nine to 11, and the last time these teams played, he hauled in six passes for 109 yards and a touchdown. Jones isn’t a special player, but he’s a smart veteran who succeeds through letting his elite quarterback throw him open. He is a strong option this week, as he has tremendous touchdown potential and consistent volume in recent weeks. The Vikings have a talented slot corner in Captain Munnerlyn, who helped to shut down Randall Cobb (FD $6,600, DK $6,000) in the first meeting between these two teams, and this should not be viewed as a good spot to roster Cobb. In fact, the good coverage Cobb is likely to see will only serve to filter targets outside to Jones, making him more valuable. The Vikings haven’t allowed a ton of fantasy points to tight ends, but do rank 26th in DVOA when covering them, which means the potential is there for Richard Rodgers (FD $5,100, DK $3,800) to score a touchdown and possibly catch a few passes and reach value. He’s more appealing on DK and other sites where his price isn’t so closely bunched to other tight ends.

The Takeaway: The Packers have been a disappointment this season on offense, but have done enough to be in a position to win the division by winning a home game against a team they handled with ease earlier in the season. Lacy and Jones are the top options for DFS purposes, while Rodgers and Rodgers are both viable, as well.

San Diego Chargers at Denver Broncos

San Diego Chargers						Denver Broncos
Saturday – 4:25 p.m.						Mile High Stadium
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		9	41.5	16.25				-9	41.5	25.25
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	20.0	26	3	32		Offense	21.9	20	17	18
Opp. Defense	18.4	4	1	2		Opp. Defense	24.7	18	7	23
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Denver Broncos	1	10	2	22		San Diego Chargers	12	26	6	19
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Floyd	67	30	3	561		Thomas	168	100	5	1187
Johnson	65	45	3	497		Sanders	129	71	6	1065
Inman	57	32	3	461		Caldwell	22	10	2	75
Gates	80	53	4	596		Daniels	76	45	3	502

The Quick Grind

Notable injuries and suspensions: Stevie Johnson (SD, Questionable)

SD Matchup Rating: 2.5
DEN Matchup Rating: 5.0

San Diego Chargers

Quarterback: Philip Rivers (FD $7,300, DK $5,300) threw for 202 yards and no touchdowns in the first meeting between these two teams, and has since thrown three touchdowns and three interceptions over his last three games. Denver ranks first in DVOA against the pass, first in weighted DVOA overall defense, and has allowed the fewest FanDuel points per game to opposing QBs and WRs. There are a lot of obvious situations to avoid on what should be an interesting Week 17 slate, and apart from Washington’s rested starters, this is the most obvious offense to ignore.

Running Game: With Melvin Gordon shut down for the year, Danny Woodhead (FD $5,700, DK $5,000) will likely get the most touches out of the backfield for the Chargers, while Donald Brown (FD $4,900, DK $3,500) will chip in with a few carries. However, the Broncos rank third in DVOA against the run and first in DVOA against backs out of the backfield in the passing game, and Woodhead was limited to three catches on seven targets the last time these teams met. The Chargers will be lucky to score two touchdowns, and while both could come from Woodhead or Brown, they may not get the total stat line required to reach value even with a touchdown.

Pass Catchers: Dontrelle Inman (FD $6,100, DK $3,600) had a great game last week, but Oakland’s corners aren’t even half as good as the corners for Denver, who will shut down Inman and company from the first snap on Sunday. Steer clear of this passing game entirely, with the exception of Antonio Gates (FD $6,000, DK $4,800), who has already stated he’ll be back for 2016, but who will want to end the season on a positive note against a team that has allowed the 12th-most fantasy points to tight ends on the year.

The Takeaway: Antonio Gates is the only Charger to even begin to consider ahead of a nightmare matchup with a Broncos team that will be battling hard for a victory.

Denver Broncos

Quarterback: Brock Osweiler (FD $6,900, DK $5,100) was able to find the end zone four times against the Steelers a couple of weeks ago, and posted a respectable stat line against a strong Cincy defense last week. This week, against a San Diego defense that ranks 22nd in pass DVOA and numberFire’s NEP metric against opposing air attacks, he should have plenty of chances to build momentum and solidify his spot as the team’s starter heading into the playoffs. Denver has a lot on the line, as the division and a bye week could swing on a win or loss, so the Broncos aren’t going to take their foot off the gas. However, they are likely to focus on the ground game, as they did in the first meeting between these teams, and that will limit Osweiler’s upside.

Running Game: Ronnie Hillman (FD $6,000, DK $4,200) was seeing the consistent volume we desire over the past few weeks, but last weekend against the Bengals, he split touches almost evenly with C.J. Anderson (FD $5,500, DK $3,700). Anderson did more with his rushing touches, but Hillman still posted decent numbers as a receiver, setting up a split workload scenario for Week 17. The last time these teams played, Anderson did better on a per-carry basis despite a smaller workload, but neither player found the end zone. Anderson seems to be the more boom-or-bust option, but Hillman has dominated the red zone touches over the past couple of months, so it’s really a matter of taking the riskier player who doesn’t get the volume we want all the time (Anderson), or the safer play who may not have the same upside (Hillman).

Pass Catchers: There was a week when Emmanuel Sanders (FD $7,500, DK $5,800) stole the spotlight, but ever since Osweiler took over under center for the Broncos, Demaryius Thomas (FD $7,700, DK $6,700) has been his favorite target. The towering quarterback prefers his taller wideout, as the former has targeted the latter 12 or more times in four of the last five games. The last time these teams played, Thomas hauled in all six of his targets for 61 yards and a score, and has since posted a two-touchdown outing against the Steelers. Sanders, on the other hand, only has double-digit targets from Osweiler in his revenge game against Pittsburgh, but has otherwise seen a modest volume and lacks appeal in what should be a run-heavy game for the Broncos. Thomas is a GPP play, but steer clear of the other Denver pass catchers, who are unlikely to be forced into action often in what will be an easy win.

The Takeaway: The Broncos need a win, and will be able to secure one easily against a battered and defeated Chargers outfit. Look for the running backs to carry the offense, but Demaryius Thomas is the top overall play from this team. The defense and special teams are a fantastic option, as well.

Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals

Seattle Seahawks						Arizona Cardinals
Saturday – 4:25 p.m.						Univ. of Phoenix Stadium
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		6.5	47	20.25				-6.5	47	26.75
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	25.8	8	19	3		Offense	32.2	1	4	6
Opp. Defense	18.5	5	9	4		Opp. Defense	18.1	3	2	3
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Arizona Cardinals	4	5	7	18		Seattle Seahawks	2	1	3	25
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Baldwin	96	73	14	1023		Fitzgerald	139	103	8	1160
Kearse	65	46	4	651		Floyd	85	51	6	833
Lockett	65	49	6	641		Brown	90	61	7	980
Willson	26	17	1	213		Johnson	49	33	12	979

The Quick Grind

Notable injuries and suspensions: Marshawn Lynch, Luke Willson (SEA, Out), Michael Floyd (ARI, Questionable)

SEA Matchup Rating: 3.5
ARI Matchup Rating: 5.5

Seattle Seahawks

Quarterback: This is going to be the most interesting game of the weekend to watch, but is nearly impossible to sort out from a fantasy perspective. Two very good defenses and two very efficient offenses collide… which gets an advantage? Prior to last week’s baffling loss to the Rams, the Seahawks had scored 29 or more points in six straight games, with team yardage totals over 400 in five of those six. Russell Wilson (FD $8,200, DK $7,000) led the way with an impressive run of 3+ touchdown efforts, and still managed a decent output last week in a loss. He’s turned a corner since the last time these teams met, but playing on the road against one of the best teams in football is a bigger challenge than facing any of the six teams he’s faced since the 39-32 loss to Arizona in November. Wilson’s upside is still there, even against the third-best pass defense per DVOA, but he’s too risky for cash games.

Running Game: Christine Michael (FD $5,100, DK $4,200) and Bryce Brown (FD $5,000, DK $3,500) will split most of the carries, while Fred Jackson (FD $4,800, DK $3,500) will see snaps in passing situations and limit the upside of both of his backfield mates. The Cardinals rank second in DVOA against the run, and rank 27th in points allowed to the RB position. Marshawn Lynch scored on one of his eight carries the last time these teams met, but it’s tough to read much into the rushing performance for the Hawks in that game, as they were forced to throw to keep up with the Cards. Since that game, the Cardinals have allowed only three rushing touchdowns, and no back has gone over 69 yards rushing. There is potential for a back to get loose as a receiver against Arizona, but with Jackson not seeing a ton of carries, his floor is very low, even if he’s going to see a healthy role in the passing game. Steer clear of this situation, as the passing game has been much more efficient, and Wilson has arguably been the team’s most dangerous runner over the past few weeks.

Pass Catchers: Doug Baldwin (FD $7,400, DK $6,700) has scored in five straight games, totaling 11 touchdowns over that span, with four 80+ yard performances. He also had quite the game against the Cardinals the last time these teams met, picking up 134 yards on seven catches and finding the end zone. Baldwin and his quarterback have great chemistry, and he’s solidified himself as a top option in fantasy football. It would be foolish to ignore him considering his recent form, even in a tough matchup. The Cardinals lost their elite slot defender, Tyrann Mathieu, and don’t really have an adequate replacement. Patrick Peterson may track Baldwin at times, which would be a big concern, but he has only played a handful of snaps in the slot this season, per PFF. When Peterson is on the outside, he’s most likely to be lined up against Jermaine Kearse (FD $5,900, DK $3,300) or Tyler Lockett (FD $5,900, DK $4,400), which limits the upside for both players. Unless we learn that Peterson will follow Baldwin, even into the slot, the outside receivers are GPP plays at best, while Baldwin is a top play in any format.

The Takeaway: Russell Wilson and his receivers are strong options this week, but their floor is lower than normal thanks to a tough matchup. Going on the road against a strong defense is never an easy task, but Vegas sees points in this game, and the Seattle offense has been very good for most of the past two months.

Arizona Cardinals

Quarterback: Carson Palmer (FD $8,300, DK $6,500) is dealing with a finger injury, but should be good to go for a Cardinals team that is going to keep its foot on the gas as they try to steal the top seed and build momentum for the playoffs. Palmer hasn’t been as consistent as his overall numbers might suggest, but he does have incredible upside, including the potential for 350+ yards and three scores against even elite defenses, as he did the last time these teams met. He followed that up with 300+ yards and four scores against a tough Bengal defense, proving that matchup doesn’t really matter for the veteran signal-caller. Palmer is a solid play every week, and with the potential for home-field advantage through the playoffs on the table, he has all the motivation he needs to recreate his earlier performance against the Seahawks.

Running Game: The Seahawks have allowed only five touchdowns to running backs this season, but one of those did come from a Cardinal back in Week 10. David Johnson (FD $7,700, DK $6,000) and Andre Ellington (FD $5,300, DK $3,500) will handle the running back duties for the Cardinals in this one, and it was Ellington who scored while spelling Chris Johnson in the previous meeting between these teams. The younger Johnson has been on a tear recently, and wasn’t needed last week as the Cards raced out to a huge win against the Packers. He did still manage to score, something he’s done quite a bit this season, and something he’s got good odds to do again this weekend. However, his yardage and overall production are likely going to be limited by a tough matchup, and he’s a risky play at such an advanced price. Ellington’s role is still a bit of a mystery, but his price is tempting if you’re looking for a more contrarian option in this game.

Pass Catchers: With Michael Floyd (FD $6,500, DK $5,200) possibly out due to a knee injury, Larry Fitzgerald (FD $7,400, DK $6,600) and John Brown (FD $6,500, DK $5,100) would be very strong plays with more concentrated workloads in this game. The issue with these three wideouts has been the way the work has been spread between the three (and the backs) as of late, but when one is out, the other two stand to benefit. Obviously, Richard Sherman is a matchup to worry about, but the other corners for the Seahawks aren’t all that formidable, and both Fitzgerald and Brown should see plenty of snaps against non-elite defenders. The entire scheme for the Seahawks still produces results on defense, and they do have a very good free safety who will limit big plays, but both Brown and Fitzgerald are strong plays if Floyd is out. Fitzgerald is preferred, as he had a huge game the last time these teams met, while Brown has a higher upside but also a better chance of seeing Sherman in coverage from time to time.

The Takeaway: Carson Palmer and his healthy receivers are strong options, as they did well against this elite defense last time around, and now have home-field advantage and a possible top seed to play for. The running back situation is tougher to trust, but David Johnson still has great odds of scoring a touchdown or two.

St. Louis Rams at San Francisco 49ers

St. Louis Rams						San Francisco 49ers
Saturday – 4:25 p.m.						Candlestick Park
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		-3	37.5	20.25				3	37.5	17.25
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	17.6	30	32	8		Offense	14.6	32	29	20
Opp. Defense	24.7	18	25	28		Opp. Defense	20.7	13	21	20
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
San Francisco 49ers	17	31	19	8		St. Louis Rams	10	23	9	10
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Britt	67	33	3	600		Boldin	103	64	3	718
Austin	79	47	9	845		Smith	54	28	4	602
Quick	27	8	0	79		Ellington	18	12	0	116
Cook	71	39	0	481		McDonald	41	27	3	289

The Quick Grind

Notable injuries and suspensions: Todd Gurley (STL, Doubtful)

STL Matchup Rating: 5.0
SF Matchup Rating: 1.5

St. Louis Rams

Quarterback: Case Keenum (FD $6,000, DK $5,100) barely throws 20 times per game, and offers very little upside for fantasy purposes. He’s a caretaker of an offense built around a star rookie running back (who may not play), and a defense that has done a good job of keeping an otherwise weak team in contention for a .500 record this season. Keenum is not worthy of a start in DFS this week against a San Francisco defense that is much better at home. Opposing offenses drop from an 8.8 ANY/A (overall passing game metric) at home against the Niners to 5.8 when visiting the Pacific coast. For context, 8.8 ANY/A would be first in the NFL, just ahead of Carson Palmer, while 5.8 would rank 25th, just ahead of Brock Osweiler, Sam Bradford and Matt Hasselbeck.

Running Game: The home/road rushing splits are strong for the San Francisco defense, as well, as the Niners have allowed 4.5 yards per carry and 13 touchdowns on 280 attempts on the road, but when they’re at home, they’ve allowed only 3.3 yards per attempt and have given up only six touchdowns on 193 attempts. Todd Gurley (FD $8,600, DK $7,400) is never out of consideration, but with an injury limiting his ability to practice this week, it would be really tough to trust him to play his full complement of snaps this week if he does get the green light. Tre Mason (FD $4,600, DK $3,000) and Tre Mason (FD $4,600, DK $3,000) aren’t trustworthy in such a tough matchup.

Pass Catchers: The Vegas total on this game is incredibly low, but if anyone is going to score, it’s likely to be Tavon Austin (FD $6,400, DK $4,100). He’s found the end zone ten times already this year, and gets the ball as a receiver, rusher, and punt returner. His price is a bit high considering the low ceiling of this game in general, but he is the most exciting player suiting up (assuming Gurley is limited or out). Otherwise, there’s no reason to try to find a player in a limited passing offense against a strong pass defense (when at home).

The Takeaway: A healthy Todd Gurley is worthy of a tournament flier, as is Tavon Austin, but otherwise, this should be an ugly game and the Rams will do well to come away with 14 points on offense. That will probably be more than enough to win.

San Francisco 49ers

Quarterback: Blaine Gabbert (FD $6,000, DK $5,000) has not been nearly as bad as he probably should be, posting a few respectable performances and generally not self-destructing while under center for the Niners. Last week, he was able to throw for two touchdowns against the Lions, but this week he faces a much tougher test against the Rams. St. Louis ranks fifth in DVOA against the pass, and 24th in fantasy points allowed to QBs. And while the last five starting quarterbacks to face the Rams have all thrown for two or more touchdowns, they’ve also thrown four combined picks, and are all decidedly better passers than Gabbert (Dalton, Palmer, Stafford, Winston, Wilson). If the upside for Blaine is 250/2/1, I’m not sure that’s worth the price tag when similarly priced players have that has a median projection.

Running Game: FanDuel doesn’t offer either of the Niners’ top rushers from last week in the player pool this weekend, but some other sites do. The Rams have allowed the 11th-most fantasy points to backs on the season, with a lot of that coming through the air, which means Jarryd Hayne is worthy of a punt play in PPR formats. He had six targets last week, and if he sees that volume again, he could pick up 40-50 yards through the air and a handful of PPR points. However, Kendall Gaskins (FD $4,900, DK $3,000) saw seven targets two weeks ago, and could get worked back into the offense this week, so there’s really no security at all in this situation. Use Gaskins or Hayne or in a cheap GPP entry, if at all.

Pass Catchers: Anquan Boldin (FD $5,800, DK $3,500) is the best player on the 49ers offense, and is the most likely to receive decent volume. He lines up in the slot, where the Rams are the weakest in coverage, and is therefore viable but not recommended. The other wideouts for the Niners will face tough tests against the strong boundary corners for the Rams, who have led the team to third and fourth rankings against WR1 and WR2 in DVOA, respectively. Tight ends seem to fare well in fantasy against the Rams, as St. Louis ranks tenth in fantasy points ceded to opposing players at the position. Vance McDonald (FD $4,600, DK $3,000) is cheap and is the most likely 49er to score a touchdown, having hauled in three over his last five games. Still, he’s a risky play with limited volume.

The Takeaway: The Niners offer a couple of mediocre (at best) options in Boldin, McDonald and the running backs, but this is otherwise a team to pass over when looking for DFS plays this weekend.

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