NFL Millionaire Maker Ownership Review: Week 10
Welcome to the Week 10 ownership breakdown of DraftKings’ Millionaire Maker. I analyzed the data of all DFSers who submitted 250+ lineups into the big GPP (pros) and compared them against the field, with the analysis focusing on players that were “make-or-break” options.
With over $5,000 at stake, what key players did the pros hone in on and which ones did they fade? The ownership percentages are displayed as an average between all the top players as well as the peak of a single player’s lineups.
Quarterback
1. Blake Bortles $5600, 17.02 points (23.1% owned)
Pros’ average ownership: 13.8 percent, Peak ownership: 54.9 percent
With an average fantasy points per game of 21.4, in addition to a matchup against a pass defense giving up the 31st-most points to opposing QBs, you may have expected Bortle’s ownership to be this high. Even after coming off a close game against the formidable Jets’ defense, Vegas projected the Jaguars to play from behind and score only 21.3 points (0.1 points above their season average). Given their WR2 in Allen Hurns missed practice all week aside from the Saturday walk-through, it may have given some cause for concern for the pros to lower his usage. His 17.02 points may have been enough for your H2H games, but would have required you to make up the difference in other positions this week.
2. Kirk Cousins $5200, 31.96 points (12.2% owned)
Pros’ average ownership: 11.5 percent, Peak ownership: 27.2 percent
The only matchup better for a quarterback than the Ravens (#31), is the Saints’ pass defense (#32). That was the position faced by Kirk Cousins this week at home at FedEx Field. The Saints had given up 10 passing touchdowns in the last two weeks and were ranked dead last in passing defense DVOA by a good margin. Given the insane matchup and a projected Vegas total 4.7 points above the Redskins’ season average, you might think he would have been the highest-owned QB. Yet, Cousins had just gone over 300 yards passing twice this season and over 25 DK points once (5x ratio). With his receivers being credited with seven drops last week against the Patriots and the minimal involvement of DeSean Jackson, the pros may have looked elsewhere.
Running Back
1. Darren McFadden $4900, 8.8 points (20.8% owned)
Pros’ average ownership: 41.5 percent, Peak ownership: 93.4 percent
As the workhorse back of the hamstrung Dallas Cowboys, McFadden had averaged 25 touches through the last three games and had not posted a DK point total under 16. Even though the Buccaneers only allowed 3.8 yards per carry and ranked above average in rushing defense DVOA, McFadden had been more involved in the passing game with Joseph Randle out of town. The cheap salary, high floor, and endless upside was too much to pass up regardless of the matchup for the pros, who took him at roughly double the rate of the field. In the end, he was held to 1.9 yards per carry, failed to find pay dirt, and may have stopped a number of otherwise good lineups in their tracks.
2. DeAngelo Williams $6500, 7.9 points (41.8% owned)
Pros’ average ownership: 25.1 percent, Peak ownership: 50.6 percent
In the same position and poised for 22-28 carries, D-Will had the opportunity to go up against the Browns (allowing 4.7 yards per carry) at home while being favored by 5.5 points. Due to the increased salary (+$1000), high projected ownership and alternative plays in Todd Gurley and James Starks, pros seemed to have reduced their exposure to him. The initial outlook of the game was a healthy dose of D-Will, and while it started off slow with back-to-back three-and-outs, everything looked according to game plan. This lasted for all of two drives as Ben Roethlisberger came in after Landry’s injury and did what he does best: sling the rock.
Wide Receiver
1. Martavis Bryant $5500, 31.8 points (6.6% owned)
Pros’ average ownership: 1.7 percent, Peak ownership: 10.2 percent
After posting a sub-50% catch rate since his breakout performance against the Arizona Cardinals in Week 6, Martavis wasn’t high on many people’s radar coming into a game against the Browns as the second option. Since Landry Jones has a connection with Martavis on the deep route during his breakout performance, the public may have looked to cash in on this relationship once again. As Joe Haden was ruled out, some pressure was relieved off of Bryant, but the porous Cleveland run defense, having Landry behind center, and projected game flow was enough to fade him. With the boom-or-bust nature of Bryant this year, the stars aligned and he had his second-best fantasy outing of the season with Roethlisberger behind center for most of the game.
2. Demaryius Thomas $7400, 14.1 points (19.4% owned)
Pros’ average ownership: 26.3 percent, Peak ownership: 88.1 percent
With Emmanuel Sanders battling an ankle injury and more touted plays in Allen Robinson and Randall Cobb, Demaryius Thomas seemed to be a less owned play who would see a higher than average workload. Kansas City, ranked 32nd in fantasy points allowed to wide receivers this season, had given up 16 catches for 203 yards and two touchdowns to Thomas/Sanders back in Week 2 when Peyton Manning arguably had his best game of the season. All did not pan out as planned with Peyton giving up an interception and sack-fumble within his first two dropbacks of the game. With five total interceptions in the game between Peyton and Osweiler, Thomas still finished with seven catches for 71 yards and showed us why the pros were so high on him.
Tight End
1. Jordan Reed $4600, 17.9 points (38.7% owned)
Pros’ average ownership: 34.6 percent, Peak ownership: 80.2 percent
The second-highest owned player behind McFadden for the pros, Jordan Reed had all the makings of a career day. By now you should probably know that the Saints ranked dead last in fantasy points against TEs, and had been involved in several shootouts this season. The Redskins were correctly projected to score 4.7 points above their season average and were playing at home as a one-point dog. Jordan Reed had been targeted 37 times in the last four games, and had only scored below 10 fantasy points once this season. He had seen the most red zone targets of any Redskins’ pass-catcher while missing two games, and was a lock considering his cheap salary. Reed ended with the red zone looks and two TDs, but lacked the targets as the Redskins got up early and Cousins only needed to throw 25 times in this one-sided affair.
2. Gary Barnidge $4800, 18.5 points (6.5% owned)
Pros’ average ownership: 2.9 percent, Peak ownership: 17.1 percent
Gary Barnidge has exploded onto the scene this year as a seven-year veteran who had never caught over 15 passes a year or breached 250 yards. He is on pace this year for over 75 receptions for over 1000 yards and 11 TDs. However, a grand majority of this production had come with Josh McCown under center, and with the Browns season all but over, Mike Pettine made the transition to Johnny Manziel for Week 10. With Manziel taking a majority of snaps under center, Barnidge had averaged five DK points over three games and was not a viable start. As the pros reacted to the early breaking news Sunday confirming that Manziel was starting, they decided to move onto higher-ceiling players.
Defense & Special Teams
1. Raiders $2100, 5.0 points (5.8% owned)
Pros’ average ownership: 11.2 percent, Peak ownership: 31.4 percent
As defenses are more reliant on the big play (and higher variance) than other positions, a viable punt play at the position were the Raiders. $100 off the minimum salary this week, the Raiders were going up against 2nd-year quarterback Teddy Bridgewater who had struggled with turnovers this year in his limited role, allowing an average amount of fantasy points to opposing defenses as a team (#18 most). Before being gashed for 170 yards in Week 9, the Raiders had not allowed a 100 yard rusher this year and allowed a below average yards per carry (4.0).
2. Broncos $3400, 1.0 point (15.0% owned)
Pros’ average ownership: 7.5 percent, Peak ownership: 24.0 percent
In light of requiring big plays to make up a high scoring day for defenses, the Broncos have done that better than anyone. They were top five in the league in interceptions returned for touchdowns, forced fumbles, sacks, and bottom five in points allowed per game. With that said, the Kansas City Chiefs had already been bitten once by Denver in Week 2 to the tune of 22 fantasy points and Denver was missing Aqib Talib and DeMarcus Ware. The Chiefs were projected by Vegas to score 6.4 points under their average points per game while playing from behind. However, the Chiefs defensive plays ended up allowing the offense to play a short field and play conservative en-route to six field goal attempts in an ugly game to watch.