NFL Millionaire Maker Ownership Review: Week 14
Welcome to the Week 14 ownership breakdown of DraftKings’ Millionaire Maker. I analyzed the data of all DFSers who submitted exactly 500 lineups (maximum allowed) into the massive 958k entry GPP (pros) and compared them against the field, with the analysis focusing on players that were “make-or-break” options.
With $1,5000 at stake and a chance at a $1,000,000 pay-day, what key players did the pros hone in on and which ones did they fade? The ownership percentages are displayed as an average between all the top players as well as the peak of a single player’s lineups.
Quarterback
1. Andy Dalton $6600, 1.36 points (5.4% owned)
Pros’ average ownership: 8.2 percent, Peak ownership: 100.0 percent
In the second-highest Vegas projected total of the week, the Red Rocket was going up against a Steelers defense that ranked 14th in passing DVOA and 23rd-most fantasy points against (QB). Meanwhile, the Steelers rush defense had only given up 3.86 yards per carry and were ranked fourth in rushing DVOA. Against a red hot Steelers team that had averaged 36 points over the last four games with Roethlisberger behind center, the Bengals would have needed to lean on their QB’s arm to keep up. Aside from a primetime meltdown versus Houston, Dalton had been consistent this year and primed for a 20 point floor with upside.
2. Jameis Winston $5500, 13.68 points (13.7% owned)
Pros’ average ownership: 9.1 percent, Peak ownership: 62.0 percent
Leading up to this weekend, Winston had been the touted chalk going up against the infamous Saints defense. While the Saints ranked dead last in fantasy points given up to quarterbacks and passing DVOA, Winston had only gone over 20 points twice on the season (29.84, 20.38) and was limited by the lack of passing volume (seventh least in the league). Not only did the Saints have a historically bad passing defense, but their rushing defense was given up the 29th-most points to opposing running backs, ranked 27th in rushing DVOA, and allowed five yards per carry. With a top three fantasy running back on the year, the Bucs wouldn’t need to air it out early or often unless they got behind against Drew Brees who had not performed as well on the road.
Running Back
1. Devonta Freeman $7700, 8.2 points (4.4% owned)
Pros’ average ownership: 10.0 percent, Peak ownership: 62.8 percent
As discussed last week and once again heavily owned by the pros, Devonta Freeman has been the premiere GPP running back, capable of breaking 40 and not surprising anyone. At $7700, he was the cheapest he had been since Week 6 and would see season-high usage in the Falcon’s offense this week. With Leonard Hankerson out in Week 13, Devonta saw a season-high ten receptions and would look to see a high number of looks in the passing game against a Panther’s defense that allowed the fourth least fantasy points to QBs and second least to WRs (especially with Julio being blanketed by Josh Norman). Projected to still score around 19 points, the Falcons would need to lean heavily on Freeman for much of that production.
2. LeSean McCoy $6100, 14.9 points (35.7% owned)
Pros’ average ownership: 26.8 percent, Peak ownership: 96.4 percent
After being traded out of Philly and exchanging pleasantries with Chip Kelly then and leading up to this week, McCoy was the highest touted running back of the slate due to his performance as well as the revenge storyline. McCoy had averaged 19.6 DK points over his last five games, carrying the rock 19 times and receiving it 3.2 times on average; Karlos Williams had siphoned six carries per game in four of the games before being sidelined with a shoulder injury. With the increased workload and an above average matchup against the Eagles (#20 rush DVOA, tenth-most DK points to RB), McCoy was looking at a moderate floor with plenty of upside. With a full 16-game slate, the pros decided to diversify from the field and targeted higher upside players such as Devonta Freeman who could see upwards of 30 carries and ten receptions.
Wide Receiver
1. Allen Robinson $8000, 7.4 points (23.0% owned)
Pros’ average ownership: 14.4 percent, Peak ownership: 100.0 percent
Allen Robinson had been the model of consistency this year, averaging ten DK points or more in every game except for Week 1. The Jaguars were playing at home against a Colts team that allowed the third-most points to opposing wide receivers and ranked 20th in pass DVOA. However, at a $8,000 salary, Robinson had been the most expensive he’s been all year (+$700 from Week 13) and was approaching the levels of DeAndre Hopkins, Antonio Brown, and Odell Beckham. With Allen Hurns being cleared from his concussion, Robinson’s season-high 15 targets would come back down to reality (9 – 12). With the reduced targets, increased salary, and a catch rate hovering around 50%, the pros decided to spend up a little more for the marquee players instead.
2. Sammy Watkins $6100, 19.2 points (27.8% owned)
Pros’ average ownership: 17.7 percent, Peak ownership: 76.0 percent
In his second year in the league, Watkins has dazzled us whenever he has been able to have the ball in his hands. However, he has not been able to catch the ball as much as he has liked, averaging only 3.9 catches per game in an inconsistent Buffalo passing game (four games with 21 pass attempts or less). Over the last two games Watkins had collected 267 yards and three TD enroute to a +$500 salary bump in which the field was riding his momentum into a juicy Eagles matchup. Philadelphia had allowed the most DK points to opposing WR and ranked #29 in pass DVOA to opposing WR1 (ranked #9 pass DVOA overall). With LeSean McCoy already highly owned in a revenge game and Tyrod Taylor projected within the top five of QB ownership, the pros may have faded additional ownership in the Bill’s offense and felt that other options around his new price tag may provide a better floor with sufficient upside (Jarvis Landry, Brandin Cooks, Martavis Bryant).
Tight End
1. Jordan Reed $5100, 30.0 points (3.0% owned)
Pros’ average ownership: 5.9 percent, Peak ownership: 20.2 percent
As the number one receiving option on the Redskins, Reed had the most team receptions, receiving yards, and twice as many receiving touchdowns as anyone else despite missing two games. The Chicago Bears seemed formidable against tight ends at first glance which may have driven Reed’s ownership low. While the Bears allowed the fourth-fewest DK points to opposing tight ends, it was mainly a product of their matchups (only TE worth noting were Jimmy Graham, Travis Kelce, and Antonio Gates). Thus, according to Football Outsiders, their DVOA versus tight ends was #24. As a 3.5-point dog, Vegas expected the game to be close and the Redskins trailing, leaving Reed as a low owned, yet high-upside play.
Defense & Special Teams
1. Seattle Seahawks $3500, 12.0 points (23.6% owned)
Pros’ average ownership: 17.8 percent, Peak ownership: 95.0 percent
One name, Jimmy Clausen. As the third starting quarterback on a team that’s WR1 is Kamar Aiken, he never stood a chance. Vegas projected the Ravens to score 16 points, which was the lowest point total for this weekend, as ten-point underdogs to Seattle. Seattle averaged the fifth-lowest points to opposing QBs, overall least to opposing running backs, and third lowest to opposing WRs (#4 overall DVOA, #4 Pass, #10 Rush). The only chance Seattle would not dazzle this week was if the Ravens went conservative and did not give up enough opportunities for passing turnovers or sacks. Although still highly owned by the pros, they diversified overall and increased ownership in wet & windy weather condition games instead.
2. Kansas City Chiefs $3200, 14.0 points (17.0% owned)
Pros’ average ownership: 24.6 percent, Peak ownership: 100.0 percent
As one of five teams averaging over 40 pass attempts per game, the Chargers would be in for a long day against the Chiefs with two of their top three wide receivers out (Stevie Johnson, Dontrelle Inman). The Chiefs boasted the #3 overall DVOA defense (#5 in pass, #7 in rush) and had averaged 15 DK points over their last five games. To make matters worse for the Chargers, the weather forecast was a 100% chance of precipitation with expected gusts of wind of 15-20 mph. With a rookie running back averaging 3.6 YPC that had failed to score a touchdown yet this season, the Chargers were not going to see any success on the ground either. With the Chargers projected to score only 17.5 points as ten-point underdogs, the pros relished the opportunity to see Rivers airing it out, from behind, in miserable weather.