NFL Millionaire Maker Ownership Review: Week 16
Welcome to the Week 16 ownership breakdown of DraftKings’ Millionaire Maker; however since the Millionaire Maker didn’t run for the $20 buy-in, the $50 buy-in Chop Block Championship was used instead ($1.75M total prizes). I analyzed the data of all DFSers who submitted 100+ lineups into the big GPP (pros) and compared them against the field, with the analysis focusing on players that were “make-or-break” options.
With over $5,000 at stake, what key players did the pros hone in on and which ones did they fade? The ownership percentages are displayed as an average between all the top players as well as the peak of a single player’s lineups.
Quarterback
1. Carson Palmer $7000, 17.60 points (3.9% owned)
Pros’ average ownership: 15.3 percent, Peak ownership: 35.5 percent
The Cardinals had averaged the second-most points per game (31.8) on the season behind the Panthers and were projected to score the 2nd most on the slate behind the Steelers. Unfortunately last week, David Johnson was the one capping off all of the Cardinal’s drives and Carson only threw for one touchdown. There was some shoot-out potential if the Packers would have been able to jump-start their faltering offense. Carson has been a constant threat to hit the 300 yard bonus with his offensive weapons, especially against a formidable Packers defense which was missing its CB1 in Sam Shields. Carson was a contrarian play with Ben Roethlisberger and Blake Bortles in prime match-ups this week.
2. Ben Roethlisberger $6800, 5.80 points (31.6% owned)
Pros’ average ownership: 10.1 percent, Peak ownership: 40.6 percent
Roethlisberger and his receivers were projected to be highly owned this week, and for good reason. The Steelers had just thrown 55 times against the league’s #1 defense in the Denver Broncos for 380 yards, 3 TD, and 2 INT en-route to a 34-27 victory. Coming into the matchup against their division rival Ravens, the only question mark for Ben’s production was if the Steelers would blow them out and run the ball late. The Ravens would funnel the ball through the air with their #30 DVOA pass defense and #9 DVOA rush defense by allowing only 3.73 yards per carry. However, a tough divisional opponent on the road where Ben had put up poor results previously in the season, albeit against above average defenses, was enough for the pros to fade a fan favorite.
Running Back
1. Charcandrick West $5700, 7.1 points (16.8% owned)
Pros’ average ownership: 3.9 percent, Peak ownership: 29.9 percent
Charcandrick has shown us before what he is capable of with a 20 carry workload and goal line carries (25.7 DK point average over 3 game span). However, with Ware out last week, West still only carried the ball 16 times and conceded some work to Knile Davis. With Ware back this week, West’s production was slated to decrease and would concede goal line touches as in Weeks 13 & 14. The matchup against Cleveland, #29 rush DVOA allowing 4.6 yards per carry, was especially prime considering the Chiefs were projected as a 10 point favorite. Unfortunately, the lack of red zone work and reduced workload was enough for the pros to look elsewhere.
2. Cameron Artis-Payne $4300, 6.6 points (10.2% owned)
Pros’ average ownership: 0.3 percent, Peak ownership: 3.0 percent
Although Mike Tolbert was the running back who started the Week 15 game for the Panthers, Cameron Artis-Payne (CAP) ended up out-snapping (41% snap rate) the others leading to a team-high 16 carries. Thus, a rematch against the Falcons, who they shut-out just 2 weeks ago, would seemingly lead to another one-sided affair. The Falcons ranked #24 in rush DVOA were a 6.5-point dog coming into this game. While the matchup looked good on paper and CAP’s salary was low, his limited ceiling would limit his exposure. Cam Newton tendency to run the ball in from the goal-line and the running back timeshare forced the pros to look elsewhere for a running back who could really fill up a stat sheet.
Wide Receiver
1. Mike Evans $7300, 10.1 points (12.4% owned)
Pros’ average ownership: 24.9 percent, Peak ownership: 46.7 percent
The number of targets Mike Evans receives when Vincent Jackson is out of the game are as follows: 9, 19, 13, 17. With Vincent Jackson ruled out on Friday, Mike Evans suddenly became a top option regardless of match-up. However, while the Bears had moderate pass defense, #14 pass DVOA and below average fantasy points allowed to WR, they do not have a shutdown corner on the roster and ranked #30 against WR1. On a full PPR site such as DraftKings, Mike Evans ceiling when receiving 15 targets is as high as it gets.
2. Rueben Randle $3500, 16.0 points (17.6% owned)
Pros’ average ownership: 32.9 percent, Peak ownership: 52.4 percent
As Odell Beckham had been suspended for this week and accounted for 41% of Eli Manning touchdown passes as well as 36% of his passing yards, the Giant’s projected team total fell to 19 points (7.6 below their season average). While this may not have boded well for Eli, a near-minimum salary receiver in Rueben would step into the WR1 role and receive a serious increase in targets and responsibilities. Rueben had already received the second most red zone targets on the team behind Odell, and would fare well against a middle of the road passing defense.
Tight End
1. Rob Gronkowski $7600, 12.6 points (13.3% owned)
Pros’ average ownership: 28.8 percent, Peak ownership: 63.2 percent
In the previous meeting with the Jets, Tom Brady threw the ball 54 times. As the Jets continued to dominate the run game, ranked #1 in rush DVOA while #9 in pass DVOA, Bill Belichick would continue looking through the air to progress the ball. With both Julian Edelman and Danny Amendola both sidelined, Gronk was looking to see a major uptick in targets. As there were not many value plays at tight end this week, the pros went heavy on solid play with significant upside.
2. Zach Miller $4000, 13.9 points (14.7% owned)
Pros’ average ownership: 24.4 percent, Peak ownership: 37.8 percent
Zach Miller started to get ingrained within the Bears offense before Martellus Bennett was placed on season-ending injury reserve, but has had an increased role since (second to Alshon Jeffrey). Alshon was officially listed as inactive Sunday morning which vaulted Zach to the #1 option in the offense through the air. Eddie Royal had not been a big factor and Jay Cutler would need to work the short to intermediate routes without a true downfield option. The Buccaneers carried a middle of the road pass defense against tight ends (#18 DVOA), but had managed to shutdown opposing running backs (#5 rush DVOA, seventh-fewest fantasy points against RB). Zach was a good target to see an increase in catches and paired with the cheap salary, made a great consistent value play with moderate upside.
Defense & Special Teams
1. Minnesota Vikings $2500, 17.0 points (4.6% owned)
Pros’ average ownership: 8.5 percent, Peak ownership: 23.0 percent
At a near minimum salary, the Vikings had only had 3 games below 6 fantasy points on the season (none below 1 point). They had been without a number of key personnel last week with Anthony Barr and Harrison Smith due to injury. With both players returning this week and with opposing wide receiver Odell Beckham out as noted above, the Giants were projected to score only 19 points (28.5% drop from season average). Minnesota’s weakness had been its run-game (#22 rush DVOA), which the Giants would be unable to exploit with the leagues 24th-ranked running back by committee offense. Adrian Peterson would be active for the Vikings and they would more easily control the game on the ground and lead to a lower scoring affair.