NFL Projected Ownership Analysis: Week 3

by Chris Gimino (ChrisGimino) Last Updated 2016-09-26 19:14:25

One thing that can easily get lost in the daily grind is that DFS is a game against other players, and not exclusively a contest to make the most accurate predictions.

Obviously we want to be very good at understanding what is likely to happen, but we cannot get so sure of our ability to predict player performance that we forget the true goal of the contest. That goal is to defeat all of our opponents. This article is designed to help you achieve that goal.

Editor’s Note: Predicting ownership can help you gain an even bigger edge on the field. Gain access to Chris Gimino’s FULL Ownership Projections (for FanDuel and DraftKings subscribers) here!

Last Week in Review

Five Hits

The accuracy rate of my projections was down to .87 correlation in Week 2. We did a fine job identifying the chalk, and gave everybody a very good distribution of ownership at most positions. However, the chalk was just a bit chalkier than expected. This is obviously going to affect the ownership of everyone else at their respective positions.

We get a small round of applause for hitting Odell Beckham, Deangelo Williams, Julio Jones, Rashad Jennings, and Drew Brees projected very close to their actual numbers. These were all heavily discussed players in Week 2, and keeping their projections tight to actual will continue to go a long way towards making better decisions. We’ll do our best to nail everybody in Week 3.

Five Misses

I don’t feel that badly about projecting C.J. Anderson as the highest-owned RB and the second-highest overall player. Why? Because he ended up as the highest-owned RB and the highest-owned player overall. What I do regret is that he was somehow even chalkier than I thought he would be at 36%. That’s more than one in every three lineups out of like 200k. That’s a lot of love. T.J. Yeldon was a similar situation. I had him projected highly as well, though he ended up a bit chalkier than expected.

I failed to account for the impact of Odell Beckham’s heavy ownership on Antonio Brown. The chatter on Brown’s historical struggles should have also clued me in that the crowd would be off him more than usual. He was still owned at a decent 12% clip, but did not qualify as the chalk as I expected.

I played Danny Woodhead in cash myself, and I should have known to bump his GPP ownership projection as a result. Cash game plays are almost always heavily owned in tournaments.

I don’t know why I thought Josh McCown would attract ownership and that the Ravens DST wouldn’t be super chalky. Lesson learned: there is zero respect for the Browns (see Week 3 DST projection below).

Week 3 Analysis

Quarterback

The top two projected QBs are heavily influenced by the traditional factors. Ryan Tannehill should be the highest-owned QB. Vegas has the Dolphins projected for a high team total. His point-per-dollar projection is typically the highest for the week in most projection models. The matchup is considered elite by everybody and their dog. The expert community is extremely high on him for cash games, and there hasn’t been a tremendous support for fading him in GPPs. It wouldn’t surprise me if he eclipses his current projections, but the line seems fair given the historical hatred for Tannehill and the fact that he is basically a failure in my public metrics (he was .37% owned just last week, undrafted in season long, and plays on a relatively non-public team).

Phillip Rivers ownership analysis is almost identical to that of Ryan Tannehill. In fact, I’m just going to copy and paste it now. Vegas has the Chargers projected for a high team total. His point-per-dollar projection is typically the (second) highest on the week in most projection models. The matchup is considered elite by everybody and their dog. The expert community is extremely high on him for cash games, and there hasn’t been a tremendous support for fading him in GPPs. Rivers carries a higher price tag on both sites, and that ultimately has me slotting him in just below Tannehill. He is a well-justified play in Week 3 and the ownership should reflect that.

My Favorite QB Ownership Value of the Week

Everybody likes Jordan Reed (right?). So how on earth is this guy going to produce fantasy points without the help of his quarterback? Cousins is going to be low owned and carries an excellent price tag on DraftKings. Vegas thinks that the Giants are going to score a lot of points, and when I look at the matchups, I see opportunity for the Redskins to focus on their passing attack to move the ball. The Giants’ front seven is simply too stout against the run for me to believe they will rely on Matt Jones. I expect the pass-heavy attack to mean a faster pace and a lot of plays. I expect this to mean increased opportunity for the fantasy plays in this game. I expect this to mean Kirk Cousins has a much better chance at a top-five QB performance than most people think. Every single year, we think we have it all figured out by Week 3. Every single year, we are wrong. Cousins is an excellent chance to roster a low-owned QB that provides you plenty of roster construction flexibility and a reasonable chance to outscore the similarly priced chalk. That’s all we can ask for in a GPP setting.

Running Back

The chalk is deep at running back this week, so I’ve selected the two players at the top who I am most confident will finish with high ownership. Deangelo Williams is going to be highly owned despite his pricing on both sites. His market share to date is simply too high, and projection models love him. He plays on a highly public team, and from a recency bias standpoint has been absolutely getting it done at high ownership the past two weeks. Everybody is starting him in their season long fantasy team. Experts sites and publics sites alike are touting Williams as a safe option for cash games and recommending him highly as a play. He’s a contender for the highest-owned RB this week, and I currently have him at the top.

Melvin Gordon is a player I think will carry the high ownership as well. I was surprised at the number of outlets that were concerned about his usage given that the backs behind him include Dexter Mccluster and Kenneth Farrow. These outlets essentially concluded that the Charger coaching staff has a history of leaving Gordon off the field in passing down situations, and referenced past situations where Gordon has let us all down. I downgraded his ownership from “mega-chalk” status to a more run rate high ownership status as a result. We should also note the emergence of Christine Michael as a value late in the week and heavy touting of Charles Sims. These plays will also contribute to sapping away Gordon’s ownership. Despite all of these detractions, he still projects as a safe point-per-dollar option that will carry high ownership in cash games. He plays on a team with a high Vegas total. He’s highly visible in expert consensus rankings. Public information sites have plenty of articles and videos discussing his new role in the San Diego offense. Gordon remains one of the highest-scoring players in metrics that typically influence ownership, and projects as a top-three owned back.

My Favorite RB Ownership Value of the Week

LeSean Mccoy is going to be busy this week, and his ownership won’t reflect his role. His efficiency is in question against the vaunted Arizona Cardinal defense, but in fantasy football, we know that opportunity is every bit as important as efficiency. The Cardinals are coming across the country to play a 1 PM game in Buffalo. 80 percent of the public money is on the Cardinals line, yet the line has hardly budged with the news that Sammy Watkins is doubtful. I don’t think this adds up to the Bills winning this game, or even being that great on offense. That said, I am fully convinced that the Bills won’t lay down. The game should be at least competitive for most of the day. McCoy will have plenty of opportunity in the passing game, and in the red zone, should the Bills actually get that far. He projects as a centerpiece of the offense, and should he find the end zone a few times, he is a potential week winner. He’s a great Week 3 ownership value at RB despite his risk against the Cardinal D.

Wide Receiver

Everybody is on Jarvis Landry. The Dolphins have a well-publicized issue at the running back position. This has led to the public perception that Jarvis Landry will see increased volume. The perception is that the Dolphins will essentially abandon the run game and rely on their passing game to move the ball. Projection models now show Landry near the top in terms of points per dollar. DFS players will flock to the relative safety of the situation and matchup. The Browns defense is perceived as being very bad against the pass. Cash game lineups will be littered with Jarvis Landry shares, and this will quite easily bleed into GPP ownership. He’s the chalk at WR and any other outcome would be an upset.

Travis Benjamin exploded for two touchdowns last week when he was the chalk. His price hasn’t risen to an astronomical degree, and he will once again dwell amongst the chalk in Week 3. Projections have him highly rated in terms of points per dollar. The matchup is premier against a banged up Colts secondary. Vegas is endorsing the Chargers. The public has added Benjamin to their season long rosters in mass. Every single website I visit discusses Benjamin and the Chargers at length. Expert consensus on Benjamin has him near the top of every value list. He’s an extremely safe projection as one of the highest-owned WRs in Week 3.

My Favorite WR Ownership Value of the Week

Mike Evans is a beast. I have him projected for a decent ownership level, but it’s probably not enough. There are some other plays that fit his general description this week (Dez Bryant, Jeremy Maclin, Allen Robinson, Eric Decker, Amari Cooper), but Evans just stands out to me from a matchup standpoint. He’ll see plenty of coverage from Coty Sensabaugh, which is a huge edge for him. He projects to get an extremely high market share of targets. He’s an elite player in terms of contested deep balls and red zone targets. His quarterback is improving and is perhaps mobile enough to escape a dangerous Rams pass rush. The Bucs defense should force the Rams to pass more than they want to, creating outs to a faster than expected game flow. At the end of the day, it all adds up to a potentially huge game from Evans. Even at projected double-digit ownership, Evans has a better chance than that to produce week winning results.

Tight End

The TE position is extremely volatile in terms of ownership in Week 3. I am currently leaning on the price of Dennis Pitta and the matchup for Jordan Reed as key reasons the field will be on these two plays as the most highly owned. Out of all the projections I have done this season, I am least confident in my distribution at the TE position this week. Delanie Walker has an uncertain status. There is a multitude of cheap options emerging that I am unsure how highly adopted they will be by the public. Some of the most talented TEs are in fine spots, but their price tags create questions about their relative value. There are a lot of different ways TE ownership could go, but I am betting on the options above to take the lead on their respective sites.

Jordan Reed is highest-projected TE on Fanduel. The structure of pricing on that site makes it easier to fit him in with a lineup that looks amazing. The scoring also lends itself to his proclivity to get red zone targets. The public metrics favor Reed, as he is a high visibility option on a popular team. He has a very high raw projection and the matchup against the Giants provides him a high ceiling. I expect players to lean on his relative safety and upside at an uncertain position and check in as the highest owned option on FanDuel.

On DraftKings, Dennis Pitta got a boat load of targets last week and clocks in at just $3,400. Vegas has this game pegged as being extremely close, and that should lead to a fair amount of passing from both sides. Pitta is showing up as a high point-per-dollar option, and is being touted by experts as a cash game option. Roster construction is much easier when you can save at TE on DraftKings, and I believe that the field will turn to Pitta as the chalk on that site.

My Favorite TE Ownership Value of the Week

I honestly wanted to write up Jordan Reed here simply because I think his spot is so good he’s destined to be under-owned no matter how popular he is. Instead, I’ll deliver a less pragmatic take and go with Travis Kelce. The Kansas City defense was a factor in their extremely slow pace and high time of possession with the lead in 2015. In 2016, we’re already seeing what can happen to the Chiefs offense if they are forced to play from behind. The Jets offense has multiple methods of attack. They can beat you with Matt Forte. They can leverage their monster outside receivers against the horrendous mismatch in Phillip Gaines. They could bust out the third straight edition of the Quincy Enunwa show. The Jets could easily get the lead and force the Chiefs to leave their comfort zone once again. That means faster offensive pace and more pass attempts for Alex Smith. The Jet defense forces teams to pass regardless of game flow anyway, and that will be especially true if the Chiefs trail. Travis Kelce already receives a high percentage of Alex Smith ’s targets, and he also projects to be a factor for the Chiefs in the red zone. In a game that features increased passing volume, Kelce is more likely than 3-6% to be the highest scoring TE on the week. That means we can get value at his projected ownership, and we should find a place for him on a GPP roster this week.

Defense

We’re only going to discuss one option at defense this week. This is the mega chalk. Cody Kessler has been widely panned as being “not ready” and the Browns have done nothing to instill confidence that they can produce offense against any defense. The Miami Dolphins are in an elite spot and they will be tough to fade in all formats. The public knows the Browns are bad. Vegas is supporting the Dolphin D with their team total on Cleveland. Projection models have the Dolphins rated highly. Expert consensus is heavily skewed towards the Dolphins. Fantasy Aces ownership on the Dolphins was through the roof on Thursday lock. This is a fascinating spot, and I am extremely concerned that projections in the 20% range are not high enough. Stay tuned to the ownership projection tool for updates on Sunday morning.

My Favorite DST Ownership Value of the Week

Tampa Bay is cheap, and facing off against a team that has really struggled on offense. Their tendency to funnel their opponents towards the passing game means we’ll get increased attempts from Case Keenum. We should always like the sound of increased attempts from Case Keenum for our fantasy defense. I don’t really think it’s necessary to dive much deeper into the analysis than that. DST is a volatile position in DFS, and this spot makes as much sense as any to produce a week winning performance at relatively low ownership.