NFL Projected Ownership Analysis: Week 5

by Chris Gimino (ChrisGimino) Last Updated 2016-10-10 01:01:43

One thing that can easily get lost in the daily grind is that DFS is a game against other players, and not exclusively a contest to make the most accurate predictions.

Obviously we want to be very good at understanding what is likely to happen, but we cannot get so sure of our ability to predict player performance that we forget the true goal of the contest. That goal is to defeat all of our opponents. This article is designed to help you achieve that goal.

Editor’s Note: Predicting ownership can help you gain an even bigger edge on the field. Gain access to Chris Gimino’s FULL Ownership Projections (for FanDuel and DraftKings subscribers) here!

Week 4 in Review

Week 4 Hits

We had our most accurate performance to date last Sunday, posting a correlation value of .9119. The above projections are just a few of the guys that landed within 1% of their number. Jordan Reed, Tyrell Williams, David Johnson, Cole Beasley, and Matthew Stafford were all in the upper tiers of own% at their positions. Julian Edelman and Carson Palmer were both projected very close to their numbers, and it’s always fun to victory lap those. We’re doing a great job identifying the chalk overall, but near the top there is still room for precision. I can assure you we will strive for better.

Week 4 Misses

The biggest whiff was on the Steelers. The impact of Le’Veon Bell being more widely rostered than I expected was felt directly on Antonio Brown ’s number. Most users aren’t in a hurry to roster 2 expensive players from the same team, and it shows. This projection error was avoidable. Le’Veon Bell was popular in cash games, and it’s on me to indentify that and account for it. I’ll mark it as an L and make sure I focus on that moving forward. I overestimated Lamar Miller ’s popularity by a wide margin. Clearly the public is “off” him as he continues to struggle. I am baffled by the ownership on LeGarrette Blount and Kelvin Benjamin. The only explanation I can hang my hat on is recency bias, as both of these players had big performances early in the year. I’ll do my best to find a better answer than that, but it certainly goes to show that the public isn’t always as perfectly predictable as we would like.

Week 5 Analysis

Quarterback

Ben Roethlisberger clocks in as the highest projected quarterback on both sites. The New York Jets secondary is widely considered to be a good matchup. They rank 31st in Football Outsiders pass DVOA, and will be without aging cornerback Darrelle Revis. We can expect the public to be all over Ben since the Pittsburgh Steelers are one of the most popular teams in the nation. We can also expect experienced DFS players to be all over Ben, since the expert community has been widely touting him as the top option. Factor in a decent Vegas total, some positive recency bias, and an affordable price tag … and you have all the makings of a very chalky QB.

Tom Brady really doesn’t need much explanation this week. He’s returning from a widely publicized four game absence to face one of the worst teams in the NFL. Narrative street is flooded with a river of “Angry Brady” mentions. The public news sites and DFS content providers alike have been spewing Tom Brady love all over the internet. The Patriots have a high team total. If it wasn’t for some of the sharp players making an excellent case to avoid him, then he very well might have been the highest projected quarterback. None the less, he’ll still be amongst the chalk this week for very good reason. He’s a hall of fame player on a public team in a great spot.

My Favorite QB Ownership Value of the Week

Ryan Tannehill faces the Tennessee Titans, who are considered a good matchup for him despite running one of the slowest pace offenses in the league. The key reason that Tannehill is in play is due to CB/WR matchups. Landry, Parker, and Stills are at an advantage vs. the Titan secondary in my view. I think the Dolphins can force Tennessee to pick up their pace, and that this game will be higher scoring than Vegas projects. Tannehill will get lost in the shuffle in terms of ownership, and I really like what his savings can do for roster construction. I’ll lock and load him at $5,700 on DraftKings, and bank on the Titans doing their part to keep this game fantasy friendly.

Running Back

Deandre Washington will be starting for the Oakland Raiders in place of the injured Latavius Murray. He is not priced as a starting running back, and represents one of the best values of the week. He will participate in a game with the highest implied Vegas total, and run behind one of the best offensive lines in the league. He is widely considered to be an acceptable cash game play, and has an extremely favorable effect on roster construction. The expert community is all over him as a play, and he’ll be the chalkiest RB option of Week 5.

Jordan Howard is a bit more favorable on DraftKings than he is on FanDuel. He’ll still see heavy ownership on all sites propelled by his excellent matchup, quality projections, and recency bias. His price tag and point per dollar value make him a fine choice in all formats, and we’ll see his cash game popularity bleed into his GPP ownership. Indianapolis ranks 26th in Rush DVOA, and the public (who just rushed to their waiver wire to add him in season long) will have no problem clicking his name when they need a cheaper RB to complete their roster. He’s an easy call as one of the top 4 owned backs this week.

My Favorite RB Ownership Value of the Week

I don’t love Todd Gurley. I don’t even really love this spot. What I do love is his low ownership as compared to his talent and upside. In order for him to succeed this week, he will need heavy usage in the passing game. Thankfully, there are some news items that support that outcome. Benny Cunningham could be out or limited. That would likely increase Gurley’s snap and target totals. We can also look at the report from the Los Angeles Times that describes Gurley spending extra time working on his receiving skills before and after practice. Buffalo has allowed RBs to catch passes out of the backfield at a decent clip, and the Rams would be wise to deploy him in this fashion if they hope to move the ball this weekend. I don’t truly endorse an “all in” strategy on Gurley, but I can’t ignore the opportunity here. He’s worth mixing into a few lineups in multi-entry GPPs as a way to pay up at a position where most people will save.

Wide Receiver

I’m not typing up a full paragraph on Antonio Brown. If you are on this website, you already know that Antonio Brown is awesome. Everybody wants to roster him as a result, and he’ll be highly owned yet again this week in a good matchup.

Not quite as obvious will be the ownership on Brandon Marshall. Projection models are giving him a lot of love, and his price tag is simply too cheap on both sites. I probably consumed like 20 Hours of DFS content (Audio/Video) this week, and his name came up in every single show as a top play. Literally every tout loves him. This includes places like Yahoo, ESPN, and CBS. He was highly owned in Fantasy Aces Thursday contest. He’s ranked highly in the Rotogrinders “Consensus Value Rankings.” There is a tremendous momentum that has built up for Brandon Marshall, and I expect him to be the second highest owned WR on the slate.

My Favorite WR Ownership Value of the Week

DeVante Parker says the extra days off will really benefit him. He’s been banged up, but according to the Palm Beach Post he’s feeling a lot better now. That’s a very good thing when you are available at a low price tag, will run routes against the second-worst cornerback in the league, and possess WR1 caliber physical traits. Parker is in a great spot against Perrish Cox, and he can easy burn him for a big play. He’s not projected for nearly enough ownership to feel poorly if he ends up torpedoing my rosters, and I’ll likely be overweight by a large margin.

Tight End

There is only one chalk TE worth discussing this week. The Detroit Lions are a great match up for the TE, and Zach Ertz is primed to drink their milkshake. His price tag is certainly the first thing people will be looking at. Expert projections have him ranked near the top. He is the consensus cash game play among touts. Vegas has the Eagles projected for 24 points, which is one of the higher totals on the week. The bottom line is that his price is too low for his projected opportunity, and both the public and the expert community will capitalize on the value.

My Favorite TE Ownership Value of the Week

The Dolphins rank 30th in Football Outsiders DVOA against the TE, and Delanie Walker is no longer listed on the injury report. He played limited snaps last week and still led the team in targets. He’s got a key receiving role in an offense that desperately needs to find some production in that department. I have my eyes glued on 82 every time I watch the tape, and there is NO REASON why he can’t be a week winner given his physical talents and quality matchup. He’s one of my favorite Week 5 plays, and I’m projecting him at a very modest ownership %.

Defense

The Minnesota Vikings have been excellent in 2016. They’ll bring their elite playmakers to the table to face off against Brock Osweiler and the Houston Texans. Vegas is punishing Osweiler’s poor performance with a 17-point implied total. Fantasy owners will flock to this spot as the hope to see more of the dominance we saw over the past four weeks against one of the weakest offenses (based on performance to date) in the league. Expect the Vikings to be relatively high owned.

The New England Patriots will be trying to defend Cody Kessler and the Cleveland Browns on the road. America is licking their chops to find enough salary remaining to afford this bunch, as the Browns are an easy mark for the public to identify. The expert crowd is also fond of this matchup, thrusting the Patriots near the top of projection models and rankings everywhere. Especially on FanDuel, the Patriots will reside amongst the chalk once lineups lock in Week 5.

My Favorite DST Ownership Value of the Week

The Eagles have averaged over 3 sacks per game and can claim one of the better defensive fronts in the league. It’s one of the reasons why they are able to get away with questionable talent in the secondary. As per usual, I want to find a defense with a plausible scenario for success that isn’t amongst the highest owned. I think the Philadelphia qualifies against notorious gun slinger Matthew Stafford. They have a middling offensive line in Detroit, which isn’t discouraging enough to fade the Eagles at their affordable salaries. I think the potential for pressure on Matt Stafford is high enough to take a shot on them in GPPs. A pick six is always in play when the QB is under duress.