NHL Season Point Totals: Where We’re Putting Our Money
The 2018-19 NHL season is here, with action kicking off Wednesday, October 3, 2018. Opening day features four games, including the Stanley Cup champion Washington Capitals. The slate also features one of the teams on SharpSide’s list for best bets for NHL points totals, the Anaheim Ducks.
Without wasting any more of your time, let’s get into four plays on NHL season point totals that this SharpSide writer is making.
Florida Panthers – Over 94.5
Don’t sleep on the Florida Panthers, who will undoubtedly have a bit of a sour taste in their mouths after falling just short of the playoffs last season despite an incredible run at the end of the season that saw them go 25-10 in their last 35 games.
The Panthers have a very good group of forwards, and it appears they have only gotten better with the addition of Mike Hoffman. Hoffman came over to the Panthers via a trade with the Ottawa Senators and has averaged almost 60 points over his last four seasons.
“(player-popup #aleksander-barkov)Aleksander Barkov”:/players/aleksander-barkov-16735 is really, really good, and the 23-year-old Finn is coming off a season that saw him produce his highest points and assists yet at 78 and 51, respectively. Barkov just doesn’t get the notoriety of a lot of other top forwards in the league, simply because of the market he’s in.
The best part about the Panthers is that they didn’t lose anyone. Sure, Roberto Luongo is getting up there in age and that might worry some people, but James Reimer is solid enough of a backup who can take enough of the workload off to provide a good one-two punch.
I really like the over and like the Panthers to flirt with the century mark. Outside of the Tampa Bay Lightning and Toronto Maple Leafs, Florida is right there as the next in line in the division. I am even like Florida to reach the playoffs this season.
St. Louis Blues – Over 96.5
Like the Panthers, the St. Louis Blues narrowly missed out on the playoffs last season. Whereas the Panthers didn’t change up their roster that much, the Blues did the opposite.
The team added Ryan O’Reilly, Tyler Bozak, David Perron, and Pat Maroon. Of that group, O’Reilly was the best add. He’s produced four seasons of 20 goals or more in the last five and is averaging 59 points in that span. He can now be the leading center the Blues need.
Bozak is a veteran who has played his entire career with the Maple Leafs up until this season and has averaged 15 goals and 25 assists through his first nine seasons. Over the most recent five seasons, those averages are slightly higher at 16 goals and 29 assists per year.
Perron returns to St. Louis after he played from 2007 to 2013 with the Blues. Most recently, Perron was with the Vegas Golden Knights and put up 16 goals and 50 assists in an impressive season.
Maroon, another forward, comes to play for his hometown and provide the Blues with power and experience at left wing.
The biggest question mark for the Blues will be their goaltending, which could make or break them. Last season, Jake Allen hurt them in spots and it was up to the backup, Carter Hutton, to provide much-needed stability. The problem is that Hutton is now in Buffalo playing for the Sabres. Allen has the ability to be a good goalie, we just need to see it.
Despite the worrisome goaltending situation, I like the over for the Blues and expect them to return to the playoffs.
Anaheim Ducks – Under 94.5
The Anaheim Ducks are one of the older teams in the league and seem to be prone to injuries. That’s not a good combination in the very tough Western Conference. Plus, something seems amiss here when looking at this point total.
The Ducks have posted five consecutive seasons by scoring more than 100 points on the season, but this year Vegas has them point total listed as 94.5. Vegas smells something, and when they smell something your alarm bells should go off.
For starters, it’s unknown when center Ryan Kesler is going to be back and he’s a key element for this Ducks team. Then, right winger Corey Perry is going to be out several months following knee surgery. Ondrej Kase was expected to play a larger role in Perry’s absence, but he suffered a concussion in the team’s final preseason game and is now questionable going forward.
Another key piece of this team is Patrick Eaves, but he’s battling a shoulder injury.
We can’t forget about John Gibson, the team’s goaltender, either, who is known to have injuries take him off the ice. That’s not something you want to be known for.
In a tough Western Conference, a handful of notable injuries to kick off the year, and an injury-prone goalie, I’m betting on a very slow start for the Ducks that causes them to go under on points for the season.
Colorado Avalanche – Under 89.5
The Colorado Avalanche are getting a lot of love after reaching the playoffs last season. They got bounced in the first round against the very tough Nashville Predators, but they’re not as good as they performed last season. The Central Division of the Western Conference that the Avalanche plays in is tough, with the Winnipeg Jets, St. Louis Blue, Nashville Predators, and Minnesota Wild there.
Nathan MacKinnon played out of his mind last season, with 39 goals and 58 assists. That’s quite tremendous, but it’s going to take another MVP-like year from MacKinnon for the Avalanche to be as good and make the playoffs.
In goal, Semyon Varlamov is a bit injury prone, in a similar fashion to the previously mentioned Gibson. Colorado did add Philipp Grubauer as a backup goalie, but does he have what it takes to hold down the fort in big spots when the team is supposed to be pushing towards the playoffs? Last season, Grubauer was with the Washington Capitals and started two games in the playoffs. He finished those two games with a 4.57 goals against average.
Whereas many are buying into the hype and believing the Avalanche are an up-and-coming squad, I’m going the other way and taking the under on 89.5 points.