Raybon's Rollout: NFL Week 5
Welcome back to Raybon’s Rollout, where I highlight the stacks and players I’ll be rolling out in DFS. For data on the hit rates of the different stacks I list below, check out the intro in the first edition of this column here.
The Saints and their godawful defense are on bye in Week 5, but since we have four weeks of numbers in the books, other defenses are starting to emerge as vulnerable targets with which to grow our bankrolls.
Unconventional Stacks
QB Ben Roethlisberger + WR Antonio Brown + WR Brandon Marshall
Opposing passing games are relatively strongly correlated, a fact which we saw borne out in Week 3 when a Matthew Stafford-Marvin Jones-Jordy Nelson stack won the Millionaire Maker. The Cam Newton-Greg Olsen-Julio Jones stack may have done the same last week had Newton not gotten hurt. Roethlisberger and Brown love their Steel City home cookin’, as both have extraordinary numbers at home. Since the start of 2014, Roethlisberger has averaged 340 yards and 2.88 TDs passing at home, compared to just 287 yards and 1.06 TDs passing on the road. Brown’s stats follow suit: he sports twerk-worthy averages of 114 yards and 1.11 TDs receiving at home compared to 103 yards and .39 TDs receiving on the road over that same time span. With their strong defensive line and shaky back-seven, the Jets have been a funnel defense (shoutout to Adam Levitan for the term) this season, ranking third in rush defense DVOA but 31st in pass defense DVOA.
If Roethlisberger and Brown have their usual success at home, the Jets will have to throw against a Steelers defense that is somewhat of a pass funnel in its own right, as the team ranks eighth in rush defense DVOA but 17th in pass defense DVOA. Marshall is seeing a healthy 25.4% target market share on the season, which may increase with Eric Decker (shoulder) sidelined. Marshall is tied for the league lead in red zone targets (8), which is one of the most strongly correlated metrics to WR fantasy production. He also is tied for the NFL lead in targets 15+ yards downfield (18), which are the most valuable targets in fantasy.
QB Carson Wentz + WR Jordan Matthews + WR Marvin Jones
The Lions defense has already gone the way of a dumpster fire, ranking dead last in both overall DVOA and pass defense DVOA. Meanwhile, Wentz is having one of the best starts to a career for a rookie QB in NFL history. Wentz has gone for 278+ yards and 2 TDs in 2-of-3 games and hasn’t thrown a pick. Matthews will likely have moderate-to-low ownership after a quiet Week 3 and a bye in Week 4, but the Lions just got torched by slot WR Eddie Royal for a 7-111-1 line. Detroit is likely to continue to struggle covering the slot, as slot corner Quandre Diggs has just a 44.7 coverage grade (out of 100) from PFF and is ranked 98th of 114 qualified corners overall, while the Lions’ linebackers struggle in coverage as well, which is why the team is also extremely generous to TEs. After Matthews target count went 14, 9, 3 in the first three weeks, he has squeaky-wheel appeal.
Jones is in a situation where the on-paper stats make the matchup look more difficult than it is. The Eagles are ranked first in pass defense DVOA, but did give up 5-96 to Alshon Jeffery in Week 2 and 12-140 to Antonio Brown in Week 3. Jones averages nine targets per game and is second in the NFL in receiving yards per game (120.5). Jones is also tied for third in the NFL in targets 15+ yards downfield (15). Meanwhile, no Eagles cornerback ranks higher than 55th overall in PFF grade out of 114 qualifiers at the position.
QB Brian Hoyer + RB Jordan Howard
It’s not sexy, but stacking Hoyer and Howard gives you access to potentially every Bears TD and the majority of their offensive yardage indoors against a Colts defense that has given up 30 points in 3-of-4 games and is ranked 29th in pass defense DVOA and 26th in rush defense DVOA. Hoyer has thrown for 300 yards and multiple TDs in back-to-back games with two entirely different game scripts. but is priced affordably on DraftKings ($5,500) and FanDuel ($6,000), where he’s cheaper than the likes of Case Keenum and Cody Kessler. Howard, meanwhile, played 91% of the snaps last week and touched the ball 26 times, yet is still priced inexpensively on all sites because this will be only his second start.
RB Jerick McKinnon + D/ST Vikings
I have been hesitant to deploy McKinnon since Adrian Peterson went down because of his potential to get vultured at the goal line by Matt Asiata, but it was encouraging to see McKinnon convert a carry at the 4-yard line into a TD (although Asiata also scored a TD from a yard out). McKinnon out-touched Asiata 21-8 last week and will now face a Texans defense that is allowing 4.6 yards per carry (29th in NFL). The Texans ranks 30th in run defense DVOA compared to fifth in pass defense DVOA, so the Vikings’ gameplan is likely to be run-heavy this week. The ability for a team to rack up rushing attempts is correlated to game script of course, which is why there is some correlation between RB and D/ST. The Vikings rank third in overall DVOA, and already have two 5+ sack games and two 20+ point fantasy games. The Texans, meanwhile, have already been shut out once and have the fewest offensive TDs in the NFL (5).
K Mason Crosby + D/ST Packers
If you’ve read this column previously, you’ll know that kicker and defense is correlated just as strongly as a QB and all his receiving options besides his WR1. Kicker scoring is correlated most strongly to implied point total, and the Packers’ implied total opened at 27.5, one of the highest on the Week 5 slate. Meanwhile, fantasy defenses, just like most of the other positions, need volume to produce. This volume comes in the form of passing attempts, where the defense has a chance to produce sacks and interceptions. The Packers have allowed only 128 yards on 71 carries this season (1.8 yards per carry), so the Giants are unlikely to establish the run and may end up passing a ton on Sunday night. Eli Manning already has thrown four interceptions and fumbled four times this season, and has taken six sacks. Fantasy defense scoring is correlated with point spread, and the Packers opened -6.5, one of the largest spreads on the slate.
Coaching Tendency to Exploit
New England’s Pass/Rush Ratio With and Without Tom Brady
This season the Patriots have passed 48.4% of the time, 32nd in the NFL. In 2015 with Tom Brady under center, they passed 65.0% of the time, third in the NFL. Coincidence? I think not. Without Brady, Julian Edelman’s production has suffered. Edelman’s average receiving line this year is 4.8/49/0 on 6.8 targets, compared to 6.8/77/.77 on 9.8 targets with Brady in 2015. The good thing about the dip this year is that it has caused his price to be depressed compared to where it was when he was playing with Brady last season. On DraftKings, Edelman’s price was above $8,000 in each of his four most recent games with Brady, but he costs only $6,700 this week. On FanDuel, Edelman’s price was above $8,000 three times and $7,600 the other time in his four most recent games with Brady, but he costs $7,000 this week. The Browns rank 21st in pass defense DVOA and Edelman should be Brady’s primary target with Rob Gronkowski reportedly still not fully recovered from a hamstring injury.
Injury Situation to Exploit
Sam Shields’ Concussion
While your Twitter feed and TV screen inevitably gets oversaturated with Beckham narratives all week, the important thing to know for DFS is that Beckham’s FanDuel price tag has not been this low since Week 15 of 2014, while his DraftKings price tag has not been this low since Week 8 of 2015. He will face a Packers defense that has allowed the second-most targets per game to WR1s and ranks 31st in DVOA against them. Beckham faced an extremely tough defense last week, but is still averaging 9.8 targets per game and could be in for a Julio-like bounceback in Week 5. I already mentioned the Packers are likely to funnel the ball in the air rather than keep it on the ground, as they have allowed just 1.8 yards per carry, but the number-one overall fantasy WR in each of the last two games they have played (Stefon Diggs in Week 2, Marvin Jones in Week 3).