Red Sox vs. Yankees Series Preview, Probable Pitchers, Predictions
While the 2021 MLB season officially passed its halfway point weeks ago, it unofficially begins with the first post-All-Star break pitch Thursday evening. That first pitch will be thrown by Eduardo Rodriguez, who will try to keep things rolling for his Red Sox against the Bronx Bombers at Yankee Stadium. And while the rivalry between these clubs may not be what it was 17 years ago, it certainly still exists—and it should be an incredibly entertaining weekend for MLB bettors.
Red Sox vs. Yankees Series Preview
In a word, firepower. The Red Sox and Yankees both rank in the top ten in the MLB in home runs with 115 and 114, respectively. Boston ranks third in the majors in runs (464), RBI (435), batting average (.259), slugging percentage (.439). Only the Astros have more hits than Boston’s 799, and the Sox lead the big leagues in doubles (193) by 24. Independence Day may be over, but these slugging squads might have some fireworks left for us in the hitter-friendly park that is Yankee Stadium.
The Yankees have had superior starting pitching numbers this season, while the Red Sox have 29 saves (3rd in MLB) to New York’s 21 (tied for 17th). But what has truly separated these squads to this date has been an RBI disparity—the Sox rank third with 435 runs driven in, while the Yankees rank fourth-worst with 341. While Boston has dramatically exceeded offensive expectations to this point, a combination of injuries and slow starts have caused New York’s offense to severely underwhelm its fanbase.
Possible Pitching Matchups
The Yankees have very inconveniently neglected to post their starting pitchers for this series, so I will do my best to project each game’s matchup. Despite the Yankees’ procrastination, sportsbooks have posted Red Sox vs. Yankees odds for Thursday night.
Thursday, July 15 (7:05 p.m.): Eduardo Rodriguez vs. Jordan Montgomery
Editor’s note: Game was postponed due to Covid-19 protocols.
All eyes will be on E-Rod and J-Monty Thursday evening, as Sox-Yanks will be the lone game of Opening Day of the ‘second half’ of the season.
Rodriguez, who sports a 6-5 record with a 5.52 ERA and 1.372 WHIP, somehow always seems to pitch better than his stats suggest. The 28-year old southpaw has fared well overall against the Yankees throughout his career (7-6, 3.88 ERA, 1.361 WHIP), but his performance at Yankee Stadium has been dicey at best (2-4, 4.06 ERA, 1.37 WHIP). E-Rod is 3-4 with a 5.70 ERA and 1.517 WHIP on the road this season.
Montgomery knows all about tough-luck losses, coming in with a 3-4 record, a 4.16 ERA, and 1.226 WHIP across 17 starts this season. He has been dealing heat lately, with nine strikeouts across 6.2 innings his last time out against Seattle, and at least six Ks in five of his last seven outings. He has exceeded three earned runs just once since May 16, yet he has just one win in nine tries during that span. Monty is 2-2 with a 2.96 ERA and 1.073 WHIP at home this season, and 11-6 with a 3.36 ERA and 1.172 WHIP in 33 career starts at Yankee Stadium. He carries a 1-1 record, 4.19 ERA, and 1.34 WHIP in eight lifetime starts against the BoSox.
E-Rod often tries to limit his free passes, and in turn pitches to too much contact. He has 29 earned runs across his last eight starts, and has allowed home runs in 11 of his 17 games this season (allowing two dingers in three of those 11 games). He gave up three earned runs in 5.1 innings his last time at Yankee Stadium June 5.
ADVANTAGE: Yankees
Friday, July 16 (7:05 p.m.): Martin Perez vs. Domingo German
Here’s where things start to get cloudy for the Yankees—does Aaron Boone switch up the rotation and pitch otherworldly ace Gerrit Cole, thanks to extra rest provided by the All-Star break? Or will he roll with crafty lefty Cortes, who has been a low-key stud whenever he has been handed the ball?
Yanks will turn to Domingo German against Perez.
Perez may be one of the more overlooked starters in the AL this season. He’s not a big strikeout pitcher, and he rarely goes deep into games—but he rallies the Sox as well as just about anyone not named Eovaldi. Perez is 7-5 with a serviceable 4.04 ERA. He has seven total earned runs across his past five starts, and he’s 7-3 since May 15. Boston bounces back behind Perez.
ADVANTAGE: Red Sox
Saturday, July 17 (7:15 p.m.): Nathan Eovaldi vs. Gerrit Cole
Here’s where we might have the game of the opening weekend of the second half. With Cole having not pitched since July 10, Boone will more than likely cut the rotation down by one and go to his ace against fellow All-Star Eovaldi. I’ll be setting the DVR for this pitching duel, which is about as close to Mussina-Martinez as this iteration of the rivalry can offer.
Cole hit the skids a bit when the MLB first started cracking down on the ‘sticky stuff.’ But he roared back to form with a vintage 12-strikeout performance against the Astros last time out, crushing his former club with a complete game three-hitter. The four-time All-Star has a 9-4 record with a 2.68 ERA and 0.930 WHIP this season, and he’s exceeded two earned runs just twice in nine home starts.
Eovaldi has been awesome, too. The veteran righty is 9-5 with a 3.66 ERA and 1.229 WHIP. However, he’s struggled a bit in his last two away games, serving up five runs to the Angels in LA and three runs against the Royals in KC. Eovaldi didn’t make it six frames in either contest, something he hasn’t done on the road since his last start against the Yankees in the Bronx. He won that game, giving up one earned run on eight hits with seven strikeouts.
I don’t care if his spin rate has dropped since the infamous ‘crackdown,’ Gerrit Cole is a monster. I wouldn’t bet against him at home in a big game, even if I had two-to-one odds.
ADVANTAGE: Yankees
Sunday, July 18 (7:08 p.m.): Nick Pivetta vs. Jameson Taillon
Another guess here, but something tells me Boony goes with his second-best available starter in the Sunday Night Baseball Game of the Week. Something also tells me New York pulls this one off, winning the series and drastically reducing the gap between these clubs in the standings.
Pivetta has been a revelation for the Sox this year, sporting a 7-3 record with a 4.09 ERA and 109 strikeouts. He just always seems to get the best from his team when he’s on the mound. But he’s far too inconsistent for me to feel comfortable with in New York, having given up four-plus earned runs in two of his last three games and six-plus runs twice since June 12.
Taillon has inferior numbers overall (4-4, 4.90 ERA, 1.270 WHIP), but he has been much better than Pivetta lately. The veteran righty went six innings last time out against Houston, giving up just two runs, and he struck out nine Mariners in Seattle across seven innings of one-run ball July 6. He’s exceeded two earned runs just once in five starts since June 12.
ADVANTAGE: Yankees
My fellow Massholes will crush me for that little section, but remember that I was simply breaking down pitching matchups there. I still like the Red Sox offense a whole world better than that of the Yankees, despite New York regaining some semblance of health in its lineup lately. Aaron Judge is back to being a beast, and Gio Urshela and Luke Voit look to be returning to form, which should bode well for positive pinstripe regression in the second half. But the Yanks’ pitching staff will have to continue dealing if it wants to slow down Boston, as the Sox look about as dynamic as they looked when they won the 2018 World Series.
Red Sox vs. Yankees – Second Half Preview
In a word, movement. Boston might make some moves to help push itself from contender to World Series favorite. That could mean going after former closer Craig Kimbrel, who has been dealing vintage stuff all season for a 44-46 Cubs team that owes him 16 mil both this season and next.
Maybe Sox GM Chaim Bloom will send some prospects to Colorado to rent Rockies’ superstar Trevor Story at third base for the rest of the year, and push Rafael Devers to DH. Or perhaps Bloom will invest more heavily in a big-value upgrade at second base and/or outfield, and lure Ketel Marte away from the last-place Diamondbacks.
The Yankees may be tied for third place in the AL East, but they are only eight games behind the Red Sox. More importantly, they are 4.5 games back of Oakland for the second Wild Card spot. Don’t plan on seeing pinstripes turn into waving white towels anytime soon—this club could turn things around significantly with improved health, a little luck, and the right front-office moves.
Such moves could include a deal for Texas slugger Joey Gallo, who has turned into a superb all-around hitter and would destroy in the Bronx. GM Brian Cashman might also look to bolster New York’s rotation, with someone like Minnesota’s José Berríos or the Rangers’ Kyle Gibson (sorry, Texas fans). Don’t be surprised if the Yanks also acquire relief help, given how much of an emotional roller coaster Aroldis Chapman and Chad Green have been this season.
Red Sox & Yankees Futures Odds
I may come off as a self-loathing Bostonian sometimes, but I truly believe in the Sox this season. There’s something about Alex Cora that just clicks for this organization, and he knows how to get the most of his club game in and game out. I’d be all over the Sox +1000 to win the World Series. Throw $50 down and pop some champagne in October when you win $500 off another Sox pennant.
As for the Yankees, I’m not as confident in their overall chances to contend for the title. They have too many injuries, too many rotational question marks, and too little offensive rhythm to trust them long-term. Unless Cashman makes a huge splash, mortgaging the future of the organization for short-term positional improvements, I don’t think the Yanks can pull off a World Series run. They may make things interesting between now and September, but I expect they will fizzle out well before October. Pass on the Yankees +2500 to win it all.
Image Credit: Imagn