Risers and Fallers: Volume 15
I’m back for another week of reviewing the most interesting players from the past seven days, pairing advanced metrics and insights from my DFS projection system, THE BAT, with my scouting background to try to figure out what to make of some the week’s most active lot of ballplayers. Guys whose stock is going up, guys whose stock is going down, guys who are perpetually underpriced or overpriced, guys who are worth paying a premium for, or guys who are just interesting and warrant some analysis on.
We’re approaching the trade deadline, but the real action probably won’t get underway until Monday afternoon. Aside from Matt Kemp, we haven’t seen any big name hitters get dealt yet, but we have seen quite a few elite relievers changing zip codes. This creates a good opportunity for a Bullpen-Themed Risers and Fallers column. When evaluating matchups, most DFS players focus solely on the starting pitcher. But the bullpen throws half the game—more than that, usually, if the starter is bad enough that you want to pick on him. But few people have a good understanding of bullpens beyond the team’s seasonal numbers, which you’ll see in a moment can be extremely misleading.
Let’s take a look at some of the bullpens that are getting better or getting worse, and I’ll highlight one that is thought to be among MLB’s worst and may actually be the very best.
RISING… AND NO ONE IS NOTICING
Texas Rangers Bullpen
When you hear touts talk about road hitters in Arlington, they’ll mention the park or the heat, they’ll mention Martin Perez or Nick Martinez, and they’ll often throw a passing mention to the “terrible Rangers bullpen.” After all, Texas ranks 29th in bullpen ERA and 28th in bullpen xFIP this year. This paints an incredibly misleading picture, though. Bullpens aren’t a static entity. They are dynamic and can change drastically based on personnel and relative usage. I talked in the past about how much I think the Kansas City bullpen is overrated because they dole out so many innings to Dillon Gee, Chien-Ming Wang, and Chris Young.
The Rangers have used 19 different relievers this year, all of which combine for those bottom-dwelling rankings. They currently have just seven active relievers, though, having waded through a bog of turds to settle on a group that is actually quite good. Look at this breakdown:
That’s a stark difference. Not only is the current incarnation of the Texas bullpen not bad, but they’ve actually been outstanding in the innings they’ve worked. Those good innings were diluted by some terrible ones, but all of the arms that sank their ranking to the basement, led by former closer Shawn Tolleson and his 7.68 ERA, have now either been demoted or released. So let’s look at the composition of the current Texas bullpen:
There aren’t any household names, but there are a bunch of really solid pitchers and several downright good ones. There’s not a single below-average pitcher in the bunch. Shoot, there’s not even a pitcher as bad as average in the bunch. We’re not looking at smoke and mirrors either. Both the xFIPs and the true talent projections from THE BAT back up the excellent ERAs.
Sure, if a game gets out of hand the team could turn to whatever crappy fifth starter (Nick Martinez or whoever) is on the roster at the time to take a pounding and eat innings, but that’s the exception to the rule and could be the case with any bullpen.
Despite having a reputation as one of the worst bullpens in baseball, Texas may very well be the best (or at least right up there). And that is a perfect example of why judging teams by their seasonal numbers can lead to some very erroneous conclusions.
This isn’t to say that you should avoid playing hitters against the likes of Nick Martinez, but the Texas bullpen is certainly not a reason to play hitters in Arlington. Just the opposite, in fact.
FALLING BULLPENS
New York Yankees
It should come as no surprise that the Yankees bullpen is in the Falling category. In the past week they’ve traded away two of the game’s elite relievers, Aroldis Chapman and Andrew Miller. The addition of Tyler Clippard, however, who of course isn’t on the level of the two losses but is still a quality reliever in his own right, helps cushion the blow. As a result, THE BAT has them ranked as the fourth best bullpen in baseball. This is a huge drop-off from first, though, where the team ranked waaaaaay ahead of any other major league bullpen. It may be a little less intimidating to play hitters against weaker Yankees pitchers like C.C. Sabathia, but it’s important to remember that this is still a great bullpen even without Chapman and Miller.
Pittsburgh Pirates
This was already one of the weaker bullpens in baseball before trading closer Mark Melancon. Now they’re in the tier right below the horrendous Cincinnati Reds and the Milwaukee Brewers. New closer Tony Watson is a quality pitcher (though nowhere near the quality of most closers), and they have a couple solid arms in Neftali Feliz and Felipe Rivero, but mostly this is a bullpen without much to worry about. Especially if you’re targeting a pitcher that you expect to get lit up, you’ll likely avoid Watson and Feliz and instead get a couple innings of Jon Niese or Juan Nicasio when the starter get knocked out in the fourth inning.
Arizona Diamondbacks
Last week the D-Backs sold off closer Brad Ziegler. This week they sold off setup man Tyler Clippard. And there are rumors that their next-best pitcher, Daniel Hudson, could be next. All in all, this is a terrible bullpen. If Hudson gets traded, the only arm THE BAT projects for a sub-4.00 ERA is new closer Jake Barrett, who has apparently “earned’ his new save chances but is really just the least bad option left. THE BAT projects him for a solid but ultimately uninspiring-by-closer-standards 3.71 ERA, which would leave him as the only Arizona bullpen arm under 4.00. And given that former pitcher-turned-hitter-turned-pitcher-again Adam Loewen is the only southpaw in the pen, this is a bullpen that is particularly susceptible to lefty-heavy teams, such as in-division rivals like the Los Angeles Dodgers.
RISING BULLPENS
Chicago Cubs
If the Texas Rangers aren’t the best bullpen in baseball, a really good case can be made for the Cubs. They just added the best reliever in baseball, after all, in Aroldis Chapman. Plus, they added C.J. Edwards a couple weeks ago, who was once considered a high-level starting pitching prospect. Scouts didn’t think he had the frame or durability to last as a starter, but the stuff was never in question and he enters the Chicago ‘pen as a high-end reliever. Add this to displaced closer Hector Rondon, elite setup man Pedro Strop, and Joe Nathan (recently recalled from the minors to fill out the back up but excellent by mop-up duty standards), and I’m willing to crown this as the best bullpen in baseball. This is a big boost to Jake Arrieta, Jon Lester, Kyle Hendricks and crew and is bullpen to think twice about when deciding to play hitters even on a windy day in Wrigley.
Washington Nationals
The Nationals already ranked as one of the top bullpens in baseball, following the Texas Rangers mold of no elite options but no truly bad ones (except they skipped the step of giving 129 innings to terrible relievers like Cesar Ramos and Andrew Faulkner), but they recently added an elite arm in Mark Melancon to solidify it all. The only liability is long-man option Yusmeiro Petit (which is certainly an important role in DFS, as this is often the first arm out of the ‘pen when a starter can’t last five innings), but overall this is a borderline top five bullpen with the addition of Melancon, boasting weapons from the right and left side.
Cleveland Indians
As with the Cubs, the Indians get a big boost by picking up the next-best Yankees arm in Andrew Miller. An eight-and-ninth inning combo of Cody Allen and Miller is lethal, and they have some solid arms in Dan Otero, Bryan Shaw, and Kyle Crockett to fill the middle innings. This too is a top-five bullpen now.
FALLING… BUT UNDERRATED… BULLPENS
Los Angeles Dodgers
Like the Rangers, the Dodgers get a bad rap as far as bullpens go. Part of this is some terrible tactical choices by rookie manager Dave Roberts. Saturday night was particularly tilting when Kenta Maeda was lifted after just 93 pitches with a man on base for Adam Liberatore, who surrendered a single hit before Joe Blanton came on to blow the lead. Blanton is the worst pitcher in this bullpen and thus the worst choice to try and preserve a 3-1 lead with two runners on in the seventh inning. Decisions don’t get much worse than this, and it’s the reason why the Dodgers pen is thought of as being so terrible. (Blanton, of course, went on to blow the lead and cost Maeda a run and the win.) In fact, closer Kenley Jansen is elite, Pedro Baez is elite among setup men, and this is a top five bullpen overall. Unless the starter can go seven strong innings to bridge the gap to those two, though, this is a bullpen that is best utilized against lefty-heavy teams since they have several strong southpaw options but few against right-handers. They give too many innings to Blanton, and you can’t give credit for how good this bullpen could be if they were only managed properly, but even mismanaged this bullpen is a net asset for pitchers and one I don’t like to target with hitters, especially lefties.
FALLING
Some may consider the drop-off between Petco and Turner Field a wash, or the drop-off between a weak Padres offense and a weak Braves offense a wash, but this is a value loss for Kemp in both regards. Petco has become closer to a neutral park over the past couple years, especially in the power department, but Turner is among the worst for hitters. And while the Padres offense wasn’t good, at least all of their best bats were right-handed, so he could be an option against weak lefties when the team could project well. The Braves have the opposite situation, though, and Kemp becomes their best right-handed bat, which could have the unfortunate effect of his individual value never coinciding with good team value. He may be an option if his price falls, but if he stays at his Padres level of close to $5,000 on DraftKings and $3,500 on FanDuel, he’ll be difficult to play.
RHP vs. ATL
Right-handed pitchers against Atlanta are perpetually a terrible, overrated play. Just look at Aaron Nola or Jeremy Hellickson this past weekend. DFSers will trot out any mediocre righty against Atlanta based on their seasonal wOBA numbers, ignoring how left-handed the team is and how few strikeouts they project for against northpaws. I’m curious to see the effect of adding Kemp to the lineup, if people will stick rigidly to their almighty season totals (the Braves have the worst wOBA in baseball this year, don’t’cha know!) or if adjustments are made to account for Kemp. Coming from the Padres some may assume he’ll add some extra strikeouts to the lineup, but he’s pretty average in that regard (and a small improvement over the likes of Jeff Francoeur) and will add quite a bit of quality hitting as well. If right-handed pitchers against Atlanta weren’t overrated before (they were), they definitely are now.