RotoGrinders Matchup Of The Week: Week 12
Welcome to the RotoGrinders Matchup of the Week! Each week, this piece will pull out one matchup that stands out to us on the weekend’s slate.
Below, you will find JMToWin’s writeup of this game from his NFL Edge – the most in-depth, DFS-specific piece in the industry, in which every game is broken down from top to bottom in a DFS-specific manner – and you will also find assorted thoughts from some of the other, top minds in Daily Fantasy Sports.
To access this content in its entirety, take our Premium package out for a free, seven-day test drive!
JMToWin’s NFL Edge
Patriots at Jets
Vegas-Implied Total: Patriots 27.5, Jets 19.5
KEY MATCHUPS:
Jets Run D – 3rd DVOA / 2nd Yards allowed per carry
Patriots Run O – 20th DVOA / 21st Yards per carry
Jets Pass D – 29th DVOA / 22nd Yards allowed per pass attempt
Patriots Pass O – 1st DVOA / 2nd Yards per pass attempt
Patriots Run D – 4th DVOA / 16th Yards allowed per carry
Jets Run O – 10th DVOA / 10th Yards per carry
Patriots Pass D – 27th DVOA / 9th Yards allowed per pass attempt
Jets Pass O – 31st DVOA / 26th Yards per pass attempt
______
Each team in this game projects to run around 63 to 65 plays – which is in line with what each team runs on the season. The Patriots may run a few more plays than that if they go pass-heavy (which is the expectation), but considering that Tom Brady should be able to complete plenty of his passes, the clock should keep running in this one for the most part.
This season, the Patriots rank 30th in passing play percentage – and as we have discussed in recent weeks, this is not just because Tom Brady missed the first four games; the Pats have continued to lean more run-heavy than nearly any other team in the NFL since Brady returned. Still, the Pats under Josh McDaniels have long been willing to adjust their approach to account for matchup, and as we saw several times last year (including against the Jets), the Pats are willing to throw the ball a ludicrous amount when the matchup calls for this approach. The Pats may not lean quite as pass-heavy as they would have last year in this spot, but I certainly expect more than the 34 pass attempts they project to unleash at their current passing play percentage. We are likelier to see around 40 attempts from Brady, which will open up plenty of players on this team as viable options (Brady included).
The last news I saw was that Rob Gronkowski was “not expected to play” this weekend, and that he then “practiced” (albeit in a limited capacity) on Wednesday. I doubt we’ll have much more clarity than this until Saturday or even Sunday morning, but it seems that things are trending away from Gronk taking the field. If Gronk does play, he should have no problem winning in this middling matchup; there will be some slight concern that he’ll be out there as a decoy, but the Pats have shown a willingness this year to hold Gronk out if he’s not ready to play (though he did have at least one “decoy” game this year), so if he’s active, I would be willing to take the chance.
This is a solid bounce-back spot for Martellus Bennett, whom everyone will be off of after he burned them last week. There is once again the chance the Pats keep him in to block most plays, as they did last week, but with the Jets playing a blitz-heavy scheme, there is also a chance the Pats use this as an opportunity to beat the blitz with passes to Bennett. He’s a tourney play, if Gronk is out, as his usage is uncertain; but while Bennett comes with risk, he has more upside than any other “affordable tight end” offers.
One guy we do not need to be concerned about is Julian Edelman, who should be heavily involved regardless of whether or not Gronk plays, but who should see a truly massive share of targets if Gronk is out. As always, Edelman’s red zone usage is solid, but not spectacular (he has 11 targets in the red zone, and he has five targets inside the 10; Jordy Nelson leads the NFL in each category, with roughly double the looks Edelman has), and his yardage ceiling is almost always below 100. But on usage alone, he’s one of the highest-floor plays on the weekend if Gronk misses, and “ceiling” always comes into play when a guy is seeing this much work.
If Chris Hogan suits up this week, I likely won’t look anywhere else on the Pats. Hogan, Danny Amendola, and Malcolm Mitchell would all split the other wide receiver work, making all of them tough sells, while Dion Lewis and James White will be splitting the passing back work, and LeGarrette Blount will be dealing with an extremely difficult matchup. If Hogan sits, however, Mitchell becomes a bit more interesting; he’s still tough to project for more than five or six targets, but he has mouthwatering upside, and he certainly has 100-yard potential if he sees that level of work.
The Jets also skew run-heavy, but they still project for over 35 pass attempts, and after having a bye week to rest up and regroup, there is at least a slim chance that this offense comes out looking better than they have looked lately. The most interesting place to look on this side of the ball is Brandon Marshall, who is always guaranteed a large share of targets when Ryan Fitzpatrick is under center, and who ranks second in the NFL in red zone targets. As always, New England can be expected to give up short passes to opponents who are willing to march up the field in a methodical manner, as they stick to their bend-but-don’t-break style of defense. Touchdown upside is always tough to come by against the Pats, but yardage should be there for the Jets (the Pats rank 14th in passing yards allowed per game), and if Marshall slips in for a touchdown, he could post a really nice weekend.
Robby Anderson and Quincy Enunwa are the guys likeliest to be involved away from Marshall, though each guy lands in tourney-only range for me, given the target uncertainty (and the upside is a tough sell from a tourney perspective anyway; I’m sure I’ll be staying away from both guys myself), but that’s not the end of the road on this offense, as we also have the Jets’ backfield.
Matt Forte has seen his usage bounce all over the map this season, which means we have no idea how he’ll be used here. But while the Pats have been strong against the run, they have had trouble defending running backs out of the backfield. Forte also ranks fourth in the NFL in red zone carries (and he ranks seventh in the NFL inside the 10-yard-line, and sixth in the NFL inside the five-yard-line), so even if he falls into one of his 17-touch games in this spot, the red zone involvement should be there. Forte is a risky play, but he comes with as much upside as any running back south of David Johnson.
Guys I like in cash games: Tom Brady, Julian Edelman
Guys I like in tourneys: Both of the above, plus: Dion Lewis, Malcolm Mitchell, Matt Forte, Brandon Marshall
What Our Experts Are Saying (NFL Premium)
Below you will find a teaser from our Premium selections. We have a lot of content available for subscribers each week, including Consensus Value Rankings, in-depth slate writeups, cheat sheets, positional spotlights, and much more.
FanDuel – dre87’s Wide Receiver Spotlight
Julian Edelman ($6,400) at Jets
With Rob Gronkowski out last week, Edelman saw a ridiculous 17 targets. He was only able to catch eight of them, limiting what could have been an otherwise huge outing. While Gronkowski’s status for this is still up in the air, it looks like there’s a good chance that he’ll miss the game again, and we can be sure that Edelman will be a big part of the offense that’s projected to score 26.8 points (second highest on the slate). The Jets are a lot like the Panthers – a tough reputation, but not that good anymore – allowing opposing quarterbacks to compile the 10th-best quarterback rating over the course of the season. The touchdown upside is obviously limited with a guy like Edelman, but even that gets a boost if Gronk does sit. At this price, it’s tough to not lock him and his high floor in cash games.