The Fantasy Grout, Week 13 - If You Ain't Cheatin'
I’m not pro-cheater, per se. I don’t subscribe to the theory that rules are made to be broken. But as a self-diagnosed know-it-all, understanding the rules better than everyone else brings me pride.
Strangely, in a sport where brutality reigns supreme, finding loopholes in the NFL rulebook is especially pleasing. Some real Revenge of the Nerds stuff. I think that’s why this video brings me such joy.
The Ravens are breaking the rules. They’re holding. A lot. Like a pre-teen experiencing her first palm-to-palm contact level of holding. It’s just that the punishment wasn’t a deterrent, given their situation. Candidly, when I saw the replay of what John Harbaugh had done, I got the same starry-eyed look as the pre-teen!
It sent me down a rabbit hole of not-quite-cheats and by the end, I needed a cigarette (or an e-cigarette, because it is kind like cheat smoking). For instance, Harbaugh’s play was not dissimilar to some Chip Kelly wizardry from Week 9 this season, where he had his defense intentionally hold all the Saints’ eligible receivers to kill clock and force New Orleans to kick a field goal. It worked.
Both Harbaugh’s and Kelly’s ploys have trappings of the Buddy Ryan “Polish Goal Line,” where he’d intentionally put too many defensive men on the field to prevent a team from scoring and to bleed the clock. They’d, in turn, take the half-the-distance penalty and set up one final (legal) stand to win the game.
In other not-cheating but also not-not-cheating history, we all remember the formational shenanigans the Patriots pulled in the playoffs in January of 2015. They used four offensive linemen, with a fifth seemingly “eligible” receiver actually being ineligible. Then, they furthered the gambit by having multiple “receivers” illegible while one of the lineman was eligible. Everyone remembers it against the Ravens, but they pulled it the next weekend against the Colts as well, and scored.
The Bengals broke out the Emory and Henry formation in a Week 10 game this season against the Giants and completed a “71-yard reception to Tyler Eifert. This formation, looks a lot like the Swinging Gate that the Colts ran in the playoffs, but without the loser game show sound.
Also, in Week 3 this year, when a Detroit kickoff landed and died in the field of play, Ty Montgomery laid with his feet out of bounds before downing the ball, which moved it from the 2-yard line to the 40. In this instance, it was technically the Lions that cheated. At least that’s what the flag and the official ruling indicated!
This got me thinking of other ways teams could “cheat.” Coaches are historically so conservative, that getting these things into playbooks might be a tall task. Still, it’s a cutthroat industry, where your livelihood depends on wins. If I was a coach, I’d take a page from another Sunday sport, NASCAR, and adopt the moniker: If you ain’t “cheatin’,” you ain’t tryin’. Here are three ways.
1) The Perma-Hold: This is John Harbaugh’s strategy on steroids. When you’re in milk-the-clock mode and you’re not pinned deep, why not just full-on, full-team, hold on every play. Not just hold. Tackle them.
In order for this to work, two things have to happen. Your play must use up time, and you have to get a first down. Whether that happens by you hanging out behind the line of scrimmage for a while before ultimately bolting, or whether you take advantage of the holds immediately, dart down the field, and just Tecmo Super Bowl to kill time, doesn’t matter. Every time you do it, the defense will have no choice but to accept the penalty, which gives you another first down to kill more clock.
You don’t have to exclusively use holding. You can sneak a 12th man on the field. You can use illegal picks and illegal men downfield. You can interfere offensively. Don’t just stop at a second forward pass. Be the first to try three or four all in one play!. As long as you waste time and get a first down, it works.
2) The Anywhere Is Out-of-Bounds: When time running down, many times whether you win or lose depends on whether you get out-of-bounds to stop the clock. It forces you to “work the sideline,” which allows the defense to cover that area, making your task all-the-more difficult.
But, what if there was a way to get out-of-bounds from anywhere on the field? It would allow you to use the whole field, and especially if your opponent wasn’t expecting it, you’d probably find some wide-open spaces to roam. Well, there is just such a way. When your play is near done, you just lateral the ball (read: full-on throw it, but slightly backward) out-of-bounds to stop the clock. You might lose a couple yards in the process, but stopping the clock is what matters.
3) The Never Start: When you’re backed up to your own goal line, to the point where running a play is going to be difficult, why don’t you just take the alternative and just not run one. Just line up, hard-count your face off, and hope. If they jump off sides, you’ve got your space. If not? Take the delay of game, and try again. You can also work some false starts into the process, trying to get away with baiting them offsides, one time.
One of two things is going to happen. After 10-plus penalties, and “half-the-distance” no longer moving the ball at all, you’ll either get them to jump or you’ll eventually run a play. If the latter does happen, and you run a play, the defense will be so far back on their heels from ten straight non-plays that positive yardage is all but assured.
If you have any other non-cheat cheats, please leave them in the comments. Please, I’m a junkie, and I need a fix!
Previously On The Fantasy Grout
Yada, Yada
Ben Koyack – $2,500 – 4.3 – 1.720 PT/$K
Jared Cook – $2,500 – 1.7 – 0.680 PT/$K
Jermaine Kearse – $3,000 – 2.8 – 0.933 PT/$K
Malcolm Mitchell – $3,000 – 21.2 – 7.067 PT/$K
Braxton Miller – $3,000 – 2.3 – 0.767 PT/$K
Mohamed Sanu – $4,300 – 15.0 – 3.488 PT/$K
Jordan Matthews – $5,000 – 8.7 – 1.74 PT/$K
Chris Ivory – $4,200 – 12.5 – 2.976 PT/$K
Jeremy Hill – $3,900 – 14.2 – 3.641 PT/$K
Eli Manning – $6,500 – 19.56 – 3.009 PT/$K
—- TOTAL —- $37,900 – 102.26 – 2.698 PT/$K
Gang Grout
Zach Ertz – $3,700 – 6.6 – 1.784 PT/$K
Tyler Boyd – $4,000 – 11.2 – 2.800 PT/$K
DeVante Parker – $4,700 – 9.4 – 2.000 PT/$K
Wendell Smallwood – $4,300 – 5.7 – 1.326 PT/$K
Matt Forte – $5,500 – 8.0 – 1.455 PT/$K
Derek Carr – $6,100 – 22.30 – 3.656 PT/$K
—- TOTAL —- $28,300 – 63.20 – 2.233 PT/$K
The picks last week were a mixed bag, if by mixed bag I mean “I mentioned Malcolm Mitchell, got the quarterbacks right, and everything else stunk like a dorm laundromat the morning after Najeh Davenport came to town.”
Running back and tight end were certainly my weakest spots this week, but, unsurprisingly, I have excuses! Namely, at running back, where there was only one non-Thanksgiving back over 4.5 PT/$K (Mark Ingram – 6.540 PT/$K). I toggled between the Yada, Yada and Gang Grout sections for the four backs I did mention (plus Rex Burkhead). As it turned out, the two who landed into the lessor section both finished in the Top 13 in terms of point-per-dollar among all backs and Top 10 among Grout salaries.
While there was only one running back over 4.5 PT/$K, there were seven tight ends, all Grout eligible. If you’re curious why the cheap tight end strategy (The PerpCorbTocks) is so successful, it’s because of the sheer number of fat guys with passable hands catching a TD in any given week.
Lastly, the optimist in me feels compelled to point this out. Because of the pricing rules, I didn’t suggest you play Brandin Cooks and Antonio Gates last week. I strictly dutch-ovened myself with those stinky picks!
The Fantasy Grout
Speaking of optimistic, I’m just going to pretend there’s hundreds of new readers in this week, and reiterate the theory of this column.
Anyone can select Julio Jones or David Johnson, the fantasy boulders you need to build your lineup wall. It’s just that with salary constraints as they are, you can’t pick all boulders. We’re here to help you find the low-priced guys that help hold the wall together. The Grout, if you will. We use the pricing restrictions listed below, and we evaluate everything on a point-per-thousand-dollars basis.
Also, lots of memes. Lots. Of. Memes.
$6,500-or-less – Quarterback
$5,500-or-less – Running Back
$5,000-or-less – Wide Receiver
$4,000-or-less – Tight End
TIGHT END
Last week, I had a bit of a Come to (The) Jesus moment regarding paying up at tight ends.
My conclusion was that tight ends, with their lower price minimum and proclivity to be used in the red zone, offer tremendous value, and by paying up, the opportunity cost is access to that value. If that was Come to Jesus, I’m going full-on Peter this week, denying I know him. Like the Sistine Chapel, the ceiling on the “Pay Up” tight ends is just too remarkable to ignore. Let’s just spreadsheet this and move on.
Also worth noting, cheap wide receivers offer more upside than the cheap tight ends do, as I mentioned here, in praising theseige & JGroove5’s Ted Ginn play. I’m going to continue to discuss cheap tight ends, and as you saw in the Previously section above, there’s still tremendous PT/$K potential in those ranks. That said, tight end is a “pay to play” situation for me, going forward.
YADA, YADA
Some Blocking TE, $2,500 VS ANOTHER TEAM – That should cover it, right? No? Hey. If you ain’t cheatin’…
Josh Hill, $2,500 VS DET – What’s injured on Coby Fleener to suggest Hill? His ego. That’s after Hill out-snapped him 58 to 18 last week, in route to a 6-for-74 day, on six targets. I know that the Saints have a tendency to “punish” good players with reduced snaps, and then go back to them the next week. Even if that’s the case, Hill may still thrive against the Lions, who treat tight ends like toddlers during arts ‘n’ crafts day at kindergarten: Everyone gets in the paint!
GANG GROUT
Ladarius Green, $2,800 VS NYG – This marks the second time I’m recommending a tight end this year who I thought was never going to play football again. With Dennis Pitta, it was two severe hip surgeries. With Green, it was all the misinformation in the preseason, with his agent saying one thing and the Steelers another. Complications from an ankle-surgery or mystery concussion symptoms? Like the financial markets, uncertainty created bearish prospects for his future. Fast forward to Week 12. This 6’ 6”, 240-pound bull, who ran a 4.53 at the combine, has prospects that match is last name: Green.
Don’t believe me? Ask his coach. Last Saturday, Coach Tomlin said “There’s one thing to be healthy. There’s another to be football ready. He’s been healthy for a number of weeks, and we’re seeing him display some football readiness, so hopefully that continues.” He then followed that up on Tuesday with indications that Green would be in line for an increased workload.
On only 34 snaps this season, over three games, he’s run a route on every snap and has been targeted 9 times (26%), including 3 inside the opponent’s 25-yard line. If his playing time increases while keeping the same usage patterns, he’ll be getting the Gary Barnkowski treatment soon. I’m partial to Ladarius Greed, but only time will tell.
WIDE RECEIVER
I’m not changing anything yet, but it may be time to look at changing the pricing parameters for wide receiver. I’m not saying it’s too hard or anything, but even after you strip out A.J. Green, Alshon Jeffery, and Jeremy Maclin, there are still 35 receivers outside of our $5,000-or-below price threshold. Meanwhile, there’s just ten tight ends too rich for our Grout blood. Let’s just say it’s under committee review.
YADA, YADA
Tyreek Hill, $4,600 AT ATL – Ten targets, Nine for 52. Three scores in different “ways.” I guess Hill might be “a thing” after all. (You were right, Dean78904, if I wanna get all technical on you!) If Maclin returns this week, his thinghood is thrown right back into suspicion though, and I’d be much more willing to take a shot on a guy who has questionable thinghood if he cost $4K-or-below.
Then again, this guy’s so fast that nobody else eats in his presence.
Malcolm Mitchell, $3,600 VS LA – The Rams’ corners, like the Raider CBs, are kind of two-faced. In Oakland’s case, their corners get great grades, yet they’ve allowed the sixth most yards to wide receivers this year. Los Angeles goes the other way, with weak corners by grade, who are middle of the pack as far as yards allowed to receivers. This weekend, I’m planting a flag on “Bad.”
With Gronk now out, you’d expect to see more three-receiver sets out of the Patriots, though it’s all guessing with them. If that’s the case, Mitchell likely draws the weak link of the secondary, out on the left. Coming off a 5/42/2 game, it’d be surprising if Brady didn’t put a couple balls up in the air for him. Let’s hope they don’t just end up in DPI and Blount 1-yard scores, because my then my flag on “Bad” would be negated by bad flags.
GANG GROUT
Dontrelle Inman, $5,200 VS TB – What’s an extra $200 between friends? Fine. I was hoping to prosper anyway.
Brandon LaFell, $4,300 VS PHI – What am I looking at in recommending LaFell over Boyd? Well. Uh. That he’s much better at … being $500 cheaper than Boyd?
Well, not only that, I guess. You know how it seems every wide receiver is a “physical freak” who is tall, big, and fast? They’re not all that way. If you caught Adam Levitan’s podcast with Matt Harmon in the off-season, you heard them describe Boyd as … the opposite of all that stuff. A 4.58 40. Only 6’ 1”. Under 200 pounds. Kind of plodding too. Dare I say Dad-Runneresque? I dare.
LaFell is more of a prototype, albeit a failed model of it. He’s a bigger guy, running more down-the-field routes. Mainly though, he’s cheaper.
Anquan Boldin, $4,100 AT NO – First off, let’s examine Matt Stafford’s weapons. Here’s a … cheat sheet… if you will.
Marvin Jones has kept a pretty consistent share of the targets, regardless of who else played. The down-the-field stuff is his. The problem is that with that role his numbers have been consistently down-the-box-score.
Meanwhile, over the last two weeks, Anquan Boldin’s role has boomed, at the expense of E. Ebron and G. Tate’s targets. Also, the only game over the last six weeks that he saw under 10% of targets was the Lion’s lone loss over the same period. Coaches notice that stuff. Not for nothing, he also leads the team in TDs over the last six games.
Certainly, the Saints’ WR DvP has stiffened, and beyond the four guys listed, the Lions have Theo Riddick, no stranger to catching passes. What I’m saying is that Boldin is no guarantee. For a cheap guy, though, I think his floor reasonably high, in the game with the highest over/under of the week. Even if the volume doesn’t emerge, he’s a great candidate to save his week with a short TD.
Plus, all else being equal, your opponent is going to start a cheap wide receiver who didn’t break his face and return a month later to catch nine balls, including two scores. You are going to start one who did. Advantage: You.
RUNNING BACK
Like tight end but more so, the running back position, is a “must have” proposition at the top. Johnson and Bell sound like two key ingredients in Pavlovian masturbation experiment, but really, they’re just a 30-point floor and a 70-point ceiling, who are game flow proof, matchup proof, and basically idiot proof. Read the words below (they’re good words!), but just know that every time you click in a non-Johnson-Bell running back, the opportunity cost is steep.
YADA, YADA
Jeremy Hill, $4,300 VS PHI – You either believe Hill’s pass game usage will increase thanks to Gio Bernard’s injury, or you believe his six receptions on six targets last week were a fluke. Either way, the bulk of the work for $4,300 is worth consideration. If you want upside though, you have to believe he can get it done through the air because the Philly front is a lot like meat in their cheese steaks: tough.
Also, Home, Sweet Home:
Dion Lewis, $3,800 VS LA – The Pats have been egalitarian in their backfield snaps since Lewis’s return. Last week’s snap counts, for instance, were L. Blount (27), J. White (26), and D. Lewis (23). On those snaps, though, New England seemed to be featuring their 2015 breakout player. Here are number of carries + targets, and percent of their snaps that they were used: Blount 12 (44.4%), White 9 (34.6%), and Lewis 13 (56.5%).
With the way that New England changes things up from game to game, it’s hard to be sure what they’ll do in Week 13. If you’re looking for a tournament flyer, you can frame the Lewis play like this. The most talented Patriot back at the cheapest price.
Then again, that 13.5-point spread sure does scream BLOUNT GAME! Hmmm.
GANG GROUT
Devontae Booker, $5,100 AT JAC – Were you as sad as I was, when you found out that a running back named “Booker” didn’t run a 4.40 40-yard dash? Apropos of nothing, I know, but it bummed me right out.
Now that I’ve come clean about those expectations, let’s talk about a back getting all the carries, as a favorite, for only $5,100. Booker handled 73% of the Broncos hand-offs in Week 12, after handling 77% of carries, the week before that. Usually, that workload at that price comes thanks to a bad matchup based price-decline. Not here, as Jacksonville has allowed the 11th most RB rush yards and is tied for the 9th most RB rush TDs allowed. Included is last week, where LeSean McCoy had 134 total yards and two scores on just 21 touches.
Even without a pun about his speed, with that workload at that price, you can should just lock him into your cash lineup and feel confident you’ll Booker a profit.
James Starks, $4,400 VS HOU – Remember when Ty Montgomery was getting all that passing work out of the backfield, and we couldn’t wait to play him? Don’t look now, but Starks has that role now. He’s been targeted five times per game, since his return from injury, which has yielded not only 13 receptions, but a couple of scores as well. You in?
But wait. There’s more!
He’s also a running back. A real life one. In the flesh. He carried the ball not seven times, but rather seventeen times versus the Eagles last week, playing on 76% of snaps. Now the Packers meet up with the Texans who are more susceptible on the ground than through the air. They ceded 89 total yards to Melvin Gordon last week on 21 touches, 92 to Latavius Murray the week before on 17, 100 exactly to Yeldon and Ivory on 23, and 133 to Theo Riddick on 19 in Week 8. The Packers even had a running back (full-back) run in a score last week for the first time all year. They’re on a roll. This week, Starks makes it two.
Frankly, it feels a little like cheatin’, getting an actual running back who also gets volume from Aaron Rodgers, but you know, I’m tryin’.
QUARTERBACK
While the Grout pricing parameters may be excluding too many receivers, they are likely not being exclusive enough at the quarterback position. When only 8-of-30 passers are too expensive, how punitive is the price threshold really? No changes just yet, but quarterback pricing limits are definitely on probation.
YADA, YADA
Philip Rivers, $6,500 VS TB – Rivers is tied for the ninth most expensive quarterback, across the 15-game slate this week. My prediction: He’ll be in the Top 3 by Week 16, boasted by matchups of Green-22, Green-26, Green-24, and Green-30, and the ownership that accompanies them.
This week, he gets the Buccaneers, who are coming off a huge conference win at home, and are now travelling west across the country for an out-of-conference tilt. Could this be the week Rivers gets Antonio Gates the two scores he needs to tie Tony Gonzalez’s TD record? It would be nice to do it at home. Also, what are the odds of two Tony Gs playing basketball in college and then leading the NFL in career TE TDs?
“Million-to-one shot, doc. Million-to-one.”
GANG GROUT
Colin Kaepernick, $6,100 AT CHI – Are you standing? I think you should take a knee for this. Colin Kaepernick Week is upon us! I guessed, in my “Stuff Happened” article from earlier this week, that his ownership in the FF Millionaire this week would be 5x his 2.34% ownership from last week. Now, I’m not so sure. As Rotogrinders own Chris Raybon tweeted Tuesday:
I tend to agree, and I’m excited to build a lineup based on it. The foundation of his value is built on San Francisco’s high-paced offense and his success in it. Per ProFootballFocus, he had a 109.5 passer rating on 30 no-huddle throws in Week 12 versus a 65.4 on his 16 remaining attempts. His floor is boasted by his zone-read rushing success. His ceiling was evident by him leading the position on the Week 12 Sunday slate. Did I just turn Kaepernick into a house? Yes, and I’m not sure why. Sometimes though, like playing a quarterback whose weapons make Old Mother Hubbard’s cupboard look like Cost Co. by comparison, you’ve just got to go with it.
MY GROUT FOR A SHOUT
I’m going to smash JMToWin’s face with a guy that got his face smashed. Going bold in with Boldin.