Week 1 NFL Preview: FanDuel Pricing Thoughts
If you’re like me, you are still knee deep into the grind that is daily fantasy baseball. If you are like most other folks, you are ready to move on. Either you don’t play baseball, or you simply enjoy football so much more than baseball. If you fall into that category, this article is for you! FanDuel released their NFL Week 1 pricing on Monday, and DFS Twitter immediately went into a frenzy creating lineups and posting screenshots. Preseason NFL is on the horizon on DraftKings, starting this weekend. It is officially that time of the year.
In order to get caught up with the crowd, I had to spend multiple hours reviewing depth charts, offseason moves, and training camp tidbits. It is a bit of a chore to get caught up with the NFL happenings after being immersed into baseball for so long. Alas, the internet is a wonderful resource. After reading plenty of articles, checking out Rotoworld, and catching up on some notes from great minds like Evan Silva and Adam Levitan, I feel like I am finally ready to tackle a look at the NFL pricing for opening week. Let’s take a look together!
Keep in mind, this is being written as the preseason has not even started yet. Obviously, things will change as we get closer to the opening week of the season. Injuries will open up doors for backups. Some players will surprise in camp and in the preseason games. Depth charts will remain fluid. Given that the pricing has already been released, this will inevitably lead to some value plays. Surprisingly, though, it hasn’t been as bad as you would think over the past couple of seasons. The first reaction is to think that by the time Week 1 rolls around, everyone will have the same lineups. That is not necessarily the case at all.
QUARTERBACKS
Russell Wilson – $8,500 – The retirement of Marshawn Lynch will put a little more of the offensive burden in Wilson’s lap this year. Miami’s defense was dreadful a year ago, and they didn’t do much to improve in the off-season. In fact, a lot of their moves have actually graded out as downgrades per various sources. I will be attacking their defense with skill players over the first few weeks, and Wilson is definitely one of the top quarterbacks in Week 1 at this price.
Derek Carr – $7,700 – The Raiders offense could be a sneaky good unit this season. Derek Carr and Amari Cooper have spent a ton of time together and could be one of the breakout pairings of 2016. They do battle with the Saints in the season opener in a game that should feature plenty of points. Oakland has revamped their offensive line this year, which should help Carr evolve into an even better NFL quarterback.
Tyrod Taylor – $7,200 – Apparently FanDuel is banking on some regression for Taylor as he enters his second full season as the Buffalo starter. This price tag is entirely too cheap for a quarterback that gets an added bonus thanks to his ability to run.
Jimmy Garoppolo – $6,900 – I am absolutely stunned that he is the same price as Robert Griffin, Sam Bradford, Jared Goff, and others. Garappolo has been getting a lot of fanfare as a viable fantasy option for the four weeks that Tom Brady is suspended, yet FanDuel did not bump his price accordingly. With the most explosive tight end in the league, a reliable top wideout, and good pass-catching running backs, Garoppolo should definitely be able to pay off this bargain basement price in the opener.
RUNNING BACKS
Todd Gurley – $8,900 – He’s a stud, the Rams have a rookie quarterback, and the 49ers defense is falling apart. With Le’Veon Bell suspended and the Cardinals threatening to split David Johnson workload with Chris Johnson, Gurley is the early choice as the top running back of Week 1.
Arian Foster – $6,500 – The buzz in Miami is talking about Foster grabbing the starting gig, as Jay Ajayi can’t stay healthy even in training camp. This is a situation to monitor, as Foster obviously has upside if he gains clear RB1 status. Regardless, I won’t be playing him in the opener against a Seattle defense that was the best run-stopping group in the league last season.
Rashad Jennings – $6,000 – There has never been doubt about his ability to produce. There has always been doubt about his workload. It was hard for Jennings to cement his value while losing passing down work to Shane Vereen and goal line work to Andre Williams. It looks like the Giants are ready to shed that plan, as the reports out of camp indicate that Jennings is the clear top dog right now. If that holds up heading into the opener, here’s your no brainer value play for a RB2.
Duke Johnson – $5,600 – The Browns are a mess on offense, but Johnson is a versatile back who should see 16-18 touches on a weekly basis. The Eagles allowed the most rushing yards per game last season, so this could be the week to take a chance on Duke, especially if he earns the starting gig.
WIDE RECEIVERS
Odell Beckham Jr. – $9,100 – With Antonio Brown likely being shadowed by Josh Norman, I’ll give Beckham the nod as the top overall wide receiver of the first week. He’s pretty good at the football.
A.J. Green – $8,200 – Here is one of my favorite GPP plays of the first week. Darrelle Revis is nowhere near the cover corner that he used to be, but fantasy players still avoid wide receivers against him like the plague. Green is a target monster and is generally safe regardless of the matchup, yet you will get him at a fraction of the ownership of other elite players.
Amari Cooper – $7,100 – See the discussion above regarding Derek Carr. The Carr/Cooper connection will be one of my highest owned QB/WR combinations to kick off the 2016 season. Despite the presence of Delvin Breaux (who actually graded out poorly last year), the Saints secondary was an absolute mess.
Eric Decker – $6,900 – All the guy does is produce. Lock him in for his seven catches and 90 yards week in and week out. He’s a fine cash game option due to his high floor and secure role in the Jets offense. The $6,900 price tag is very reasonable, too.
Kevin White – $6,000 – Keep an eye on him in the preseason. He has garnered plenty of camp buzz and is enormously talented. Teams will roll double coverage at Alshon Jeffery all year, giving White the opportunity to make big plays. White could be a fine GPP target against the Texans.
Dontrelle Inman – $5,100 OR Tyrell Williams – $4,500 – Stevie Johnson’s injury will open the door for someone in the San Diego receiving corps; the question remains just who that person will be. Inman is the logical, experienced choice to replace Johnson in the slot. However, they could move Keenan Allen into that role and let Williams play outside. Williams caught an 80 yard touchdown in the final regular season game last year, and he is minimum salary on FanDuel. This is a preseason story to watch closely.
TIGHT ENDS
Rob Gronkowski – $8,700 – He’s really, really good, but he’s really, really expensive. We don’t know what the drop off will be from Brady to Garoppolo. This sets up as a massive risk/reward play that I will like in GPPs if Gronk is low-owned, but I will probably play the fade if the chatter around the industry has him at a high ownership projection.
Eric Ebron – $5,100 – Ebron is one of my favorite early season values. The retirement of Calvin Johnson opens up plenty of targets in the Detroit passing game, and Ebron has always been a very talented pass catching tight end. The Colts ranked just 24th in pass defense a year ago, and Vontae Davis will work to shut down the outside receivers in this matchup. He’s priced as the 22nd tight end on the board, and he has top six upside on a weekly basis.
KICKERS
If you think I am talking about kickers in August, you’re sadly mistaken. Next!
DEFENSES
We are out of luck for some of the elite defenses if we play the weekend slate, as Denver and Carolina play on Thursday night and Arizona has to face New England.
Kansas City – $5,100 – They are the most expensive defense, but they are playing at home in front of their boisterous crowd against the always turnover-prone Philip Rivers. I probably won’t go to this level in cash games, but I like the GPP upside as a defensive touchdown is surely possible.
Houston – $4,900 – Note the above and replace Philip Rivers with Jay Cutler. There is touchdown upside here if Cutler makes a mistake, Houston is a talented squad, and they should be able to control this game at home.
Washington – $4,200 – I love them long-term and they are my favorite season-long defense to pick this year. The addition of Josh Norman gives them one of the league’s best corners, and Bashaud Breeland is no slouch, either. This secondary is legitimate, and they could be the best overall unit in the league. This matchup against the Steelers is very interesting, too. Le’Veon Bell has been suspended for the first four games of the season, which means the Steelers will take to the air a lot more. With Norman shadowing Antonio Brown, they might find it hard to move the ball. Hmmm….