Week 2, In Which We Eat Gelato
There were at least 80 people in line. We overheard an elderly couple (in requisite bright pastel attire) saying they had waited 45 minutes to get inside. To get their gelato.
They said the wait was worth it – so we waited.
The day had started the night before for my wife and me, in New York City, where she got blisters on her feet from all the walking, and where we stayed longer than we had intended. We figured it would all work out. We had a five hour drive through the night, but we could stop at a motel along the way and get a few hours of sleep. I didn’t need to be at my event until early the next afternoon.
The plan began to fall apart shortly after we left the city. We hit traffic, and then hit more traffic, and then hit some more.
Around two in the morning (still a good four hours from our destination), I decided to find a place where we could sleep for a bit, and I pulled into the parking lot of the friendliest-looking highway hotel I came across.
All booked.
We continued meandering through the night until we found another highway hotel (also booked) and another (also booked) and another (you guessed it). Some sort of obscure convention in town. Every room for the next few towns booked solid for the weekend.
We kept on.
By the time we reached another town with lodging options, it was four in the morning, and we were only a couple hours from our destination. My wife was asleep in the passenger seat, and the cold air blowing through the window on the empty stretch of highway had woken me up enough that I decided to just keep going. I’ll sleep when I get there, I thought.
Sleep when I get there?
What on Earth was I thinking?
“There” was Chincoteague Island – a small barrier island off the coast of Virginia, where families vacation in the summer, and where wild horses bring tourists, and where the final stop of my book tour was scheduled to take place at 1:00 in the afternoon. “There” was not a place where you could roll in at 6:00 in the morning and find an empty room – and by the time we got “there,” the only place for me to sleep was my car. Or the beach.
My wife and I drove along the sand as far as we could and carried a couple blankets behind a dune, but the sun was rising over the ocean already, and when I pulled one of the blankets over my face to block the light, I got so hot I could barely breathe.
For two hours, I slept (or didn’t sleep) like that – blocking the sun as best I could, while trying (and failing spectacularly) to ignore the heat.
It’s still one of my wife’s favorite mornings. She brings it up from time to time. Of course, she slept a bit in the car on the drive there; she didn’t have to be on her game, so to speak, at 1:00 that afternoon.
We played in the waves and swam up and down the coastline for a couple hours, and as the beach filled up around us we drove into town for breakfast and then parked in a parking lot where I tried (and failed) to sleep some more.
By 4:00 that afternoon, I was sandy. I was sweaty. I was tired. And I was waiting in line for 45 minutes for “the best gelato you can get this side of the Atlantic.”
When we reached the front of the line, we were faced with over 20 options. “Would you like any samples?” the girl behind the counter asked – but I knew what I was going for. I had spotted it the moment we inched close enough in line to read the flavors scrawled across the chalkboard behind the counter. Malted milk ball gelato.
Bingo!
“Really?” my wife said. “Malted milk ball? I wonder if that’ll be good.”
“It’s going to be awesome.”
“You should get a sample of it before you buy it.”
“Oh, no. It’s going to be awesome.”
My wife waded through five or six flavors – sampling each option that stood out to her and carefully narrowing down her choices to what she felt was best.
I ordered my malted milk ball gelato.
And I paid.
And I waited until we stepped outside to take a bite.
And I waited until we reached our car…
I wanted to sit, and know that the impossibly long day was winding to a close, and enjoy the best gelato I could find this side of the Atlantic.
I started the car, and took a bite.
“How is it?” my wife said.
“Oh my god. Wow. That is absolutely awful.”
Let’s Pick The Right Flavors This Week
It turns out the gelato was awesome. My wife said it was the best she’d ever had – and most of the people who waited in line for 45 minutes seemed to feel the same way. But much like the two Highlight Games this week – the Patriots at the Saints, and the Packers at the Falcons – just because that place made great gelato did not mean every flavor was guaranteed to be good.
This is a strange week in DFS. Not only are those two games sitting at Over/Unders of 54.0 or higher, but the next five “highest Over/Unders” are as follows:
47.5
46.0
45.5
45.5
44.0
Yeah. There are two games pegged in the mid-50s…then there’s a sharp drop to four games in the 45.5 to 47.5 range…then every other game sits at 44.0 or lower.
Not only are the two Highlight Games projected to be high-scoring; most other games on the weekend are projected to be low-scoring.
This creates a situation in which ownership will not only be high on those two Highlight Games – but where ownership also should be high. More than likely, much of the top offensive production on the weekend will come from those spots – and that makes it important for us to have a clear understanding of how we should expect those spots to play out, while also identifying some of the spots in other games that have a chance to match what we will see in New Orleans and Atlanta.
We don’t want to get to the front of the line and order malted milk ball gelato.
Let’s dig in to find the best flavors in those spots – and to find a few of the best flavors away from those games as well.
Quarterback
Tom Brady / Aaron Rodgers / Matt Ryan / Drew Brees
Yup. This weekend largely comes down to this – and while it’s easy to say “You probably can’t go wrong with any of these guys,” the actual reality of DFS is that every point matters. Because all of these quarterbacks will likely grab decent ownership, you’ll start behind a large chunk of the field if you roster the guy who has 26 points while 15% of your competition rosters the guy who posts 33. As such, it is not only valuable for us to roster a quarterback from these two games; it is also valuable for us to assess who “the best quarterback” is likely to be.
For my money, the starting point at the quarterback position this week should be Tom Brady – if for no reason other than the perfectly obvious and fundamentally sound fact that the Saints are likely the worst pass defense in the NFL (after ranking 30th in pass defense DVOA last year and 32nd the year before). Further compounding the issue for the Saints is that their own offense is explosive enough that “no lead against the Saints is safe” – which pushes opponents to keep their foot on the gas against them. This is a perfect storm for fantasy production: One of the top quarterbacks in the NFL, in one of the top offenses in the NFL, coming off an embarrassing loss, and taking on one of the worst pass defenses in the NFL in a game in which said quarterback will need to stay aggressive throughout. Brady rarely plays an entire game without throwing a touchdown pass, but the last five times this has happened, he has followed up with a game of at least three touchdown passes. I’ll be surprised if Brady fails to crack 300 yards and three touchdowns – which gives him the highest floor/ceiling combo among the Big 4 for me.
While you can make a convincing case for any of these four as “the top guy,” the clear number two option for me is Aaron Rodgers. There are two things in particular that cause Rodgers to stand taller than Ryan this week:
1) Rodgers accounted for 44 of the Packers’ 51 offensive touchdowns in 2016 (86.3%) – throwing for 40 and rushing for four. Matt Ryan, meanwhile, accounted for “only” 38 of his team’s 58 offensive touchdowns last year (65.5%). If each team puts up a big score, Rodgers is the likelier quarterback to account for a huge chunk of his unit’s scoring.
2) The shift from Kyle Shanahan to Steve Sarkisian as offensive coordinator for the Falcons may be only a small bump in the road, but I certainly deem it to be notable, at the least.
The Falcons have a slightly better matchup, against a Packers defense that finished 23rd in pass defense DVOA last year (while the Falcons finished 18th), but so much of the Packers’ offense runs through Rodgers, I’m leaning his direction.
While any of these four quarterbacks could post the top score on the weekend, I’ll peg Brees’ chances of reaching that mark as the lowest among the four. We all saw New England get lit up in Week 1 by Alex Smith and the typically low-flying Chiefs offense, but we also need to acknowledge that the Patriots have the defensive weaponry to be much better against the pass than they were last week (and without a pair of long plays – one to Kareem Hunt and one to Tyreek Hill – the final stats in that game would have looked far more respectable). Further complicating matters for Brees is the Patriots’ ability to remove an opponent’s top weapon from the game. In the past, this would not have impacted Brees much, as he he would have had plenty of other guys to turn to – but if the Patriots effectively limit the impact of Michael Thomas (which I fully expect them to do), Brees no longer has Brandin Cooks and Willie Snead to turn to. Instead, he’ll be looking to deep-ball specialist Ted Ginn, untrusted weapon Brandon Coleman, and inconsistent Coby Fleener. Again: I expect a strong game from Brees. It won’t even surprise me if he’s the top-scoring quarterback on the weekend. But out of this week’s Big 4, I’ll peg his chances of reaching the top at the lowest of the group.
Russell Wilson at home vs the 49ers
While many will likely focus their Week 2 analysis on the positive shift in production Russell Wilson sees when playing at home versus on the road, an even greater benefit this week will be the lack of pressure Russ is likely to see. Against the Packers in Week 1, Russ faced pressure on 39.4% of his drop backs – with the Packers regularly able to generate this pressure while rushing only four bodies (enabling them to clog up the downfield passing lanes at the same time), but in 2016, the 49ers ranked 31st in the NFL in pressure rate, while ranking 29th in DVOA when they did get pressure. While the 49ers are in position to improve, this is still a very beatable unit, and is an opportunity for Russ to get back on track. If I am moving away from the Big 4 above, Russ is the first place where I will look, as he is one of the few guys who stands out in Week 1 as having a shot at a similar ceiling to the quarterbacks in the projected shootouts.
Running Back
Ty Montgomery at the Falcons
I’m not telling you anything you don’t know already. I’m probably not telling you anything you haven’t read five times this week. But in Week 1, Montgomery played 90% of the Packers’ offensive snaps – which was not only tops among running backs, but was less than the Packers apparently intended, as Montgomery’s missed plays came when he had to leave the field to get his ankle taped. The Falcons ranked 28th in run defense DVOA last year, but even more appetizingly for Montgomery, they ranked 25th in DVOA defending running backs out of the backfield, while finishing dead last in the NFL in targets, receptions, and receiving touchdowns allowed to the running back position. Considering Ty Montgomery was a wide receiver until partway through the 2016 season, this is a pretty darn good spot for his skill set. A Rodgers/Montgomery pairing will likely expose you to all of the points the Packers score on offense this week, while Montgomery should be a cash game staple on all sites.
Ezekiel Elliott / Melvin Gordon / Leonard Fournette
I have tourney interest in some of the other running backs in the two Week 2 shootouts (as detailed in this week’s NFL Edge), but the main thing I always want at the running back position is a bankable workload – and what better guys to fulfill that desire than the three listed above.
In Week 1, Zeke and Fournette tied for the NFL lead in running back touches, with 29 apiece, while Melvin Gordon averaged an elite 22.7 touches per game last year.
Zeke takes on the Broncos this week, who are so stout against the pass – and are so correspondingly lackluster against the run (21st in DVOA against the run last year, and 18th in yards allowed per carry) – they tend to filter touches to the running back position. Zeke also saw five targets in Week 1, while the Broncos ranked 15th in DVOA defending running backs out of the backfield (compared to a top five ranking against tight ends and all three wide receiver positions). While the matchup is not stellar, it’s slightly above-average – and Zeke’s offensive line, talent, and touches make him an excellent play this week.
In Week 1 against the Texans, the Jaguars’ “Defense and Running” approach was in full effect, as Fournette saw 26 carries – compared to a laughably low 21 pass attempts for Blake Bortles. As long as the Jags are able to keep games close, they are going to keep the ball out of Bortles’ hand (a truth that should become even more evident now that Allen Robinson is lost for the season) – and because of how stout the Jags’ defense is (sixth-fewest yards allowed per game last year – with a defense that has improved its personnel since then), “games that aren’t close” could be few and far between this year. While the Titans faced the second-fewest rush attempts in the NFL last season (a dual product of them regularly bringing a safety into the box and having a poor pass defense), the Jags pounded the rock into eight-man boxes all throughout Week 1, and unless they fall into a hole, they will do the same thing again. I expect 20+ carries and a handful of targets for Fournette this week – making him the rare “talented, high-usage running back going overlooked by the field.”
Melvin Gordon takes on a Dolphins defense that allowed 100 yards on the ground in 13 of 16 games last year, and because of his bellcow usage – seeing at least 18 carries per game with targets regularly sprinkled in – he shapes up as one of the top plays on the weekend. Because we’ll get plenty of “Play Gordon everywhere” analysis elsewhere, I’ll drizzle lightly on this parade by pointing out that the Dolphins’ run defense is so poor because of their second-level play. This unit has an elite defensive line and awful linebackers, and the teams that smashed them last year usually had both a strong offensive line and an elite back (the offensive line could open holes in the Dolphins’ D-line, and the elite back could cruise past the overmatched linebackers at the second level). The Chargers’ line is mediocre and Gordon may or may not be an elite back, so there is certainly a case for a tourney fade given what should be high ownership (last year, Gordon managed only 70 yards against the Dolphins, on 24 carries – making the Chargers one of only three teams that failed to top 100 rushing yards against this unit). But from a usage and matchup standpoint, there is a lot to like – and a strong case can be made for Gordon as one of the top running back plays on the weekend.
Wide Receiver
There are cases to be made for all of the following guys:
Brandin Cooks
Chris Hogan
Ted Ginn
Brandon Coleman
Jordy Nelson
Davante Adams
Maybe even Mohamed Sanu or Taylor Gabriel
But the two guys who stand out to me the most this week in the obvious shootouts are Julio and Cobb.
In Week 1, Julio (much to the chagrin of my cash game team) saw five targets, leading to four catches and 66 yards. That’s not good.
What is good is what happened last year in the six games following Julio’s sub-70-yard efforts: 5-106-1, 12-300-1, 7-139-1, 8-111-1, 7-113-0, 7-96-0 (credit to Adam Levitan for that one).
Julio disappointed in one of his two games against the Packers last year (three catches for 29 yards, on five targets), but in the playoffs he punished this secondary for a 9-180-2 line, and in his previous game against the Packers he went for 11-259-1. Whenever Julio gets targets, he goes to work – even when teams are rolling coverage in his direction (which basically happens every single week). Week 2 is as simple as this for me: Julio is the best wide receiver in the NFL (apologies to Antonio Brown), and he should see a big bump in targets.
While it’s no surprise to see Julio in this article, some of you are probably wondering why Cobb makes the cut for me above some of the more generally-trusted names above…
In 2016, the Falcons ranked third in the NFL in DVOA against perimeter receivers…while ranking 25th against wide receivers in the slot. In addition to seeing the most running back targets in the NFL last year, the Falcons saw the most slot targets – and with Randall Cobb finally looking healthy after a pair of injury-plagued years, I expect him to be a major focal point for the Packers’ offense this week. He may not hit the 13 targets he saw in Week 1 against the Seahawks, but double-digit looks once again would not be a surprise. While I’ll certainly chase Jordy this week if building multiple lineups, Cobb is the first guy I will be focusing on from the Packers in this spot.
Keenan Allen / Larry Fitzgerald
Speaking of teams that filter targets to the slot: The Dolphins mirrored the Falcons almost exactly in 2016, ranking second in DVOA against perimeter receivers, but ranking 24th against receivers in the slot. This is good news for Keenan Allen, who will spend a large chunk of his time in the slot this week, and whose last eight non-injury-shortened games provided target counts of 10, 13, 15, 10, seven, 18, four, and 17. Allen has explosive upside, red zone trust, and one of the highest projected target workloads on the weekend – against a pass defense that is near the bottom of the league defending the position he primarily plays. That’s a pretty darn good setup – and if he happens to draw low ownership this week, that will be a bonus on top of an already-large Pile of Positives.
While Allen is a near-lock for double-digit looks this week, Larry Fitzgerald may end up seeing the highest target workload on the weekend. That might sound like a bold statement until we recall that Fitz saw 13 targets in Week 1…and the Cardinals will now be without checkdown outlet David Johnson (while possibly missing additional checkdown outlet Jermaine Gresham, and number two receiver John Brown). Without DJ in the mix, Fitz becomes the clear top option on the Cardinals…and if Gresham and Brown miss, he becomes the only trusted weapon left on the team. After struggling under pressure in Week 1 against the Lions, Carson Palmer will be taking on an Indianapolis “defense” that ranked dead last in pressure rate in 2016, and that looked like they were running in slow motion in their Week 1 efforts to get to Jared Goff. The Colts’ secondary is all sorts of a mess right now as well, with a pair of rookies, a failed cornerback playing safety, and a failed safety playing cornerback. This is the healthiest Fitz will be all season, this is the best matchup he will have all season, and this may be his biggest workload on the year. Giddy up.
The Lonely Gelato Shop
That day my wife and I waited 45 minutes for gelato?
Yeah.
There was another gelato shop literally right next door that had no line at all.
I can guarantee you that their best flavor would not have matched what my wife waited 45 minutes to carefully select – but I can also guarantee you that I could have gone over there and found something better than my malted milk ball disaster.
This week, let’s focus on grabbing the best plays from the two big games – and let’s hunt for the complementary plays in other spots that will outscore the “malted milk ball” duds from those spots as well.
Focus on that, and I’ll do the same – and I’ll see you at the top of the leaderboards when Sunday rolls around.