Week 3, In Which We Track Statistics
I kept track of statistics on how my hats performed. Not just wins and losses. I tracked holds and saves as well.
Each day of the Red Sox season, I wore one of five hats – in a five-hat rotation. If the Red Sox game started poorly, I switched to one of my bullpen hats (there were seven bullpen hats in all). If you had wanted (though I was, mercifully, aware that no one would have wanted), I could have pulled out my notebook and shown you how many wins and losses each hat had that season…as well as in past seasons. Hats got moved to the bullpen and promoted to the starting rotation. Some hats got demoted completely. I had one hat – a blue hat with a rip in the crown – that saved over 30 consecutive games. The only blown saves for the Red Sox in this stretch came on days I was not at home to switch hats.
You might think I was a kid during these years. It would be nice if this were the case. I was in my early 20s, actually – though I do have similar stat-tracking habits sprinkled throughout my earlier life.
In a box in my parents’ basement where my high school treasures are stored, I’m sure I could dig up the notebook in which I tracked my high school football stats. Not just receptions, tackles, touchdowns, and interceptions, but downed punts as well. If I was the first one down the field on punt coverage, you could darn well guarantee I would be the one to pick up the ball. Anything I could add to my stats notebook was good by me.
I have baseballs in storage at my parents’ house from earlier in my life, with statistics scrawled all over them. Any game ball I received was quickly branded with the date and a full list of my stats from that game. I tracked my ERA throughout the season; I tracked my batting average and slugging percentage.
I didn’t play army games with my G.I. Joes as a kid. Instead, I played football. When there weren’t enough G.I. Joes to form an 11-on-11 game, I began collecting Beanie Babies. I constructed entire football games on the carpet in the living room – starting with the defensive line assignments and the offensive line’s efforts to stop the rush, then moving to the backfield, then to the pass catchers. For each play, I engaged all 22 stuffed animals in their assignment, and when each play ended, I opened my notebook and tracked all the relevant statistics from the play.
In school – where Beanie Babies and a living room floor were nowhere to be found – I used X’s and O’s on notebook paper, playing out entire games from coin toss to final whistle. Along the way, I tracked every piece of information – every statistic and scrap of numbers-based production that I might want to reference later on.
It’s a funny world I have landed in – this DFS universe.
In 2000 – at the age of 14 – I fell in love with writing. In 2012, my first novel was published, and that same year I began freelance writing full-time. In the autumn of 2013, I dabbled in DFS, and in 2014 I dove in completely. By 2015, I was writing several articles each week for RotoGrinders throughout the MLB season and several additional articles each week in NFL.
Statistics.
Writing.
What could be better?
I don’t have a clever tie-in this week. It’s Thursday night, and I am writing this article at the 50-hour mark for work this week (with two very full days of work and roster construction still ahead of me before we hit Sunday). I just finished writing my last MLB article of the season, I have spent more time this week than is probably sane or normal looking at sports numbers, and even with my MLB workload wrapped up, I’ll be shifting to another jam-packed week as soon as games kick off on Sunday.
But what of it?
What could be better?
I’m hopeful that all of you have had an overwhelmingly profitable start to the season – but I know there are some of you who have failed to land on the right plays for two weeks running. And I know that “two weeks running” can feel like an eternity in NFL, where we have to wait seven days for the next main slate to kick off.
But what of it?
What could be better?
This week, as you buckle down and conduct as much research as you can, and gather as much information as you can, and prepare as best as you can for a massive Week 3, keep the beauty of DFS in perspective. You get to dig into stats all week, talk football all week, and play General Manager each week – with a chance to make money along the way. How freaking cool is that?
This is an interesting week for DFS. Unlike last week, there are no “obvious top plays.” Unlike the first two weeks, ownership should be more spread out – and if ownership is congregated heavily on a bunch of spots, it is likely that at least some of those spots will ultimately prove to be sub-optimal. Unlike the first two weeks, it will likely be difficult to find 20-point games in Week 3 – so that’s our focus today. We’re not going by position this week. Instead, we are looking at some of the players I feel have a shot at a 20-point game – with particular emphasis on players who are likely to go overlooked by the masses.
Hunting For 20 Points
Deshone Kizer at the Colts
There are a lot of quality quarterbacks this week. Aaron Rodgers is at home, where he is automatically underpriced any time he is not facing an elite defense (Rodgers has averaged almost a full additional touchdown at home, compared to on the road, over the last three years), while Derek Carr and Kirk Cousins are matched up in a likely shootout. Matt Ryan and Matthew Stafford each play for a team that aims to slow down the pace, but each guy is also efficient with his opportunities, and there is a good chance the game between these two shoots out as well. Alex Smith has posted top-four quarterback weeks in his last two games against the Chargers, and Phillip Rivers has the weapons to post a big game against the Chiefs. All of those guys are solid plays – and they’re not the only solid plays on the week (I’ve listed seven quarterbacks and have not even mentioned the former MVP who is taking on the Saints). But when it comes to targeting big upside at low ownership and a low price, there is not much that stands out more than Kizer.
While the Colts have shown surprisingly strong run defense to begin the year, they have continued to get blasted in the secondary, where they are allowing the most yards per pass attempt in the NFL so far this year, and have allowed the most completions of 20-plus yards.
Kizer has looked like a rookie on tape – regularly dropping his eyes when pressure gets to him, and regularly forcing unnecessary throws downfield. But while this indicates he will endure some box score bumps and bruises early in his career, it also feeds into exactly what we want in tourneys: Enormous upside. When Kizer drops his eyes, it gives him an opportunity to rack up yards on the ground (already, he has 10 rushes for 43 yards), and when he forces throws downfield, he opens opportunities for big plays.
The loss of Corey Coleman hurts. But between his legs and his big arm, Kizer is in an excellent spot vs a defense that can get flamed for chunk plays. This is not the safest bet in tourneys, but Kizer’s week-winning ceiling makes it well worth the risk.
Jay Ajayi at the Jets
In Week 2, Jay Ajayi played 94% of the Dolphins’ snaps – which sets him up for a gorgeous workload against a Jets defense that has gotten demolished on the ground so far, allowing over 300 rushing yards through the first two games. Helping Ajayi’s case is that the Miami finished 28th in pass play percentage in 2016, and the Chicago Bears – under Adam Gase – finished 25th in the same category the year before. This is a team that wants to run the ball, and against the hapless Jets, this is a team that should be able to run the ball. Ajayi is locked into 20-plus carries, a handful of targets, and goal line work, making him one of the top plays on the weekend – and one of the safest bets for that 20-point threshold that should be somewhat difficult to find this week.
Derrick Henry vs the Seahawks
I do not expect the Seahawks to struggle against the ground game this year, even after Carlos Hyde ran through them in Week 2, but it needs to be noted that the entire defensive front for the Seahawks has struggled to begin the year, while Derrick Henry will step into a monster workload for a run-centric offense if DeMarco Murray misses this week. In 2016, the Titans ranked fourth in the NFL in total rushing attempts, and the only teams that ran the ball at a higher rate of frequency were the Cowboys and the Bills. The injury to Corey Davis provides further impetus for the Titans to stick to the ground this week. If Murray rallies and takes the field, Henry immediately becomes a weak play – but if Murray misses, or if there are reports among beat writers that Murray will be active but lightly used, we can lock Henry into a 25-touch game. At his affordable price tag, on a week in which value is difficult to come by, I will gladly lock in his talent and workload over worrying about the matchup. There is not much value at the running back position, but Henry will be one of the better low-priced bets if Murray is out or limited.
DeVante Parker at the Jets
We are one week into the Dolphins’ season, and Jay Cutler has already tossed seven passes that traveled at least 20 yards downfield – a massive departure from the manner in which Ryan Tannehill held back this offense last year, and a sign that the rumored 2017 DeVante Parker explosion is likely on its way. On the one hand, it needs to be acknowledged that – yes – this is a run-first offense. And against the Jets, there is a chance that Cutler is only called on to throw the ball 25 to 27 times. But on the other hand, Cutler threw the ball only 33 times in Week 2, and that was enough for Parker to pile up nine targets – in spite of shadow coverage from stud corner Casey Hayward. This week, with the Jets presenting little resistance in the slot or on the outside, the target distribution should tip in Parker’s favor after Jarvis Landry racked up 15 looks last week, which means that even if Cutler throws the ball only 25 to 27 times, I still expect eight or nine looks to flow Parker’s way. The Jets have already allowed the third-most completions of 20-plus yards, and as mentioned above: Cutler loves throwing downfield to perimeter receivers. Last week, he targeted Parker five times on passes 20 yards downfield, creating an opportunity for monstrous upside in this game. Parker is not being heavily discussed in the industry this week, which is extra icing on the cake if you consider “extra icing” to be a good thing, and is just the right amount of icing on the cake if you prefer just the right amount of icing.
DeSean Jackson at the Vikings
Through the first two weeks of the season, Xavier Rhodes has traveled with Michael Thomas and Antonio Brown, and has held these two stud receivers to a combined line of 10 catches for 107 yards. As I explored in this week’s NFL Edge, there are still reasons to like Mike Evans in this spot, but part of the reason wide receivers are not posting huge games against Rhodes is because the matchup on the other side of the field with Trae Waynes is just so delectable, there is no reason for the quarterback to ignore it. Through the first two weeks of the season, 10 passes have been thrown in the direction of Waynes…and all 10 have been completed, for a total of 150 yards and a touchdown. Martavis Bryant torched Waynes both short and deep last week, and now it is time for DeSean Jackson to get in on the action, as he should spend plenty of time on Waynes with Evans occupied by Rhodes. Last week, DeSean drew seven targets – which is not a monster workload, but it does look appealing when you consider the circumstance: a blowout in which Jameis Winston was called on to throw only 30 times. Throughout most of last season, Dirk Koetter held Jameis to around 32 to 35 attempts, so we shouldn’t see a huge spike in overall volume from the Bucs even in a more competitive game, but with a couple extra targets likely to flow toward DeSean with Evans in tougher coverage, we could easily see double-digit looks for the speedster this week. I expect a solid game from DeSean, and he has upside for a truly monstrous game, making him one of my favorite tourney bets for those 20 points we are trying to uncover.
Keenan Allen vs the Chiefs
While the term “double-digit targets” is thrown around often, it is actually rare that NFL receivers consistently see double-digit looks. In 2016, only five receivers in the NFL averaged 10 or more targets per game (you might know these names: Julian Edelman, A.J. Green, Antonio Brown, Odell Beckham, and Mike Evans), so I don’t make this statement lightly: Keenan Allen is almost a lock to average double-digit targets this year. Through two games, he has seen 10 targets twice, with the first game coming against the tight coverage of the Broncos’ secondary. This week, Keenan is taking on a Chiefs pass defense with a strong reputation, but most of that reputation can be credited to the pass rush and to Marcus Peters. With Peters sticking to his side of the field (where Keenan has lined up only 12% of the time so far), and with Keenan running over 60% of his routes from the slot, he is set up perfectly to A) avoid the most difficult cornerback matchup the Chiefs can present, and B) provide a quick-hit outlet for Phillip Rivers when pressure gets to him. Keenan has looked like a legit difference-maker on the field (yet again), at what appears to be full health after last year’s Week 1 ACL tear. There is a decent chance this game turns into a shootout, and if it does, Keenan will be heavily involved once more – with close to, or over, double-digit targets.
Jordy Nelson vs the Bengals
Every once in a while, people start to get excited about what appears to be the less-than-stellar cornerback talent on the Bengals, assuming that this makes them a defense to attack. The element that goes overlooked on this path of thinking is that cornerback talent is not the only factor in whether or not a defense is difficult to pass on; scheme also has a lot to do with things, and the Bengals run an excellent scheme that filters targets to the middle of the field, with slot receivers, running backs, and tight ends doing far more damage against Cincinnati than perimeter receivers. In 2016, the Bengals ranked sixth in DVOA against perimeter receivers, while ranking 28th against wide receivers lined up in the slot. So why bring up Jordy Nelson, who is a perimeter receiver? This one will likely go overlooked by the masses, but when Randall Cobb missed three games last year, Jordy kicked into the slot – where he averaged over 30 additional yards per game. While the status of both these guys is still up in the air at the moment, Jordy is trending toward playing, while Cobb is trending toward not playing. Already this year, Rodgers has been focused on the slot position, feeding 22 targets to Cobb in the early going. Jordy is one of the most reliable red zone targets in the NFL (in 2016, he led the NFL in targets, receptions, and touchdowns inside the 20-yard-line and inside the 10-yard-line), and if we can add to that sort of touchdown upside “a funnel spot for usage” (which will be the case if Cobb misses and Jordy kicks into the slot), that will be all the better for us. Jordy is always a strong DFS option, but he’ll jump toward the top of my list if Cobb sits out this week.
Zach Ertz vs the Giants
For years now, I have been saying that the main things I aim to evaluate when assessing a player for NFL DFS is “talent, matchup, opportunity, and price.” But if there is one item on that list that consistently stands out to me above the others, it is “opportunity.” This is why I am often able to roll out my cash game team as my “main tourney team.” I don’t want the four-target wide receiver who “might pop off for a huge play.” I don’t want the explosive running back who might have a huge game on a handful of carries. I want the guy who is going to get reliable usage, so that even if he does not post a monster game, his floor is high enough that he does not hurt my team. In his last 11 games with Carson Wentz at quarterback, Ertz has seen fewer than six targets only once. He has seen fewer than eight targets only three times. He has seen double-digit targets in five of his last nine games. There is no reason we should expect this to change anytime soon. While the Eagles talked this offseason about lightening the load for Carson Wentz this year after “putting too much on his shoulders in 2016,” they also went out and signed LeGarrette Blount, who is a horrible fit for their shotgun-based attack. As such, the Eagles have continued to turn to the air – notching the fourth highest pass play percentage in the NFL to begin the year, and calling on Wentz to throw 39 and 46 times through the first two weeks. Wentz has locked onto Alshon Jeffery and Zach Ertz as his primary targets, and while Alshon also jumps up the tourney-play list if Janoris Jenkins misses this week (which appears likely), the best way to beat the Giants is with the tight end. In 2016, the Giants ranked 26th in DVOA against the tight end, and only three teams allowed more yards to the position. Ertz is a viable bet for another game of double-digit targets – giving him a clear shot at 20+ points in an excellent matchup.
Eagles DST vs the Giants
The Eagles have eight sacks and 18 quarterback hits through two weeks, with one of the most ferocious front-seven units in the NFL. Meanwhile, the Lions sacked Eli Manning five times last week, with all of these sacks coming on four-man or three-man rushes. To put it simply: the Giants’ offensive line is absolutely no match for the Eagles’ front seven, and this is likely to be a long day at the office for Eli – who looks cooked even when he has time to throw, and who is unlikely to have much time to throw this week. I do not usually write up a defense in this article, and I do not expect the Eagles to be particularly sneaky. But this week, I wanted to focus on the roster options I think have a clear shot at 20 points, and the Eagles’ defense is certainly on that list. There is always a case to be made for fading a chalky defense, given the unpredictable nature of DST scoring. But there was also a reason the Rams were chalky in Week 1, and there was a reason the Ravens would have been chalky in Week 2 before Sam Bradford was inactive and the masses pivoted to the Steelers. Sometimes, a defense is just in a really good spot – and this week, the Eagles are just in a really good spot.
Happy Hunting
Keep digging into the numbers this week. Keep studying, picking up new information, allowing yourself to be creative in your assessment of each game, and putting yourself in position to win.
But most importantly: Keep having fun!
Ultimately, none of this – including the winning – is any good without that.
Keep that in mind, and I’ll see you back here next week – and of course, I’ll see you at the top of the leaderboards this weekend!