Week 5, In Which We Watch Movies
I apologize.
I mean – let’s be clear. I’m not saying I’m sorry. I’m definitely not saying that. I’m not sorry at all.
But nevertheless, I apologize – I owe you that much, at least. It’s not as if I can help it, though. I’m a writer. It’s just something I do…
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People fascinate me. That’s a big part of it. Honestly, I guess that’s a big part of why fiction writing is my passion. Words are great. Stories are great. But really, more than anything else, it’s all about the people.
I like to watch people I don’t know. We all do that from time to time, I’m sure – but to me, the coolest thing about watching people is that…well, think about it. Every person is a story. Every. Single. Person. In the hands of the right writer, there is a novel (or more) in every person’s life. Each person who passes you had a childhood. That person next to you on the plane? – they have something they’re afraid of, something they’re passionate about, something they want to keep a secret. That kid who just finished eating ice cream and now has a sticky face? – his entire future is in front of him, and if you followed him throughout his life, you would uncover a treasure chest of human emotion and triumph and loss and disappointment and success and failure, and so on.
You’re a novel. Or more. We all are.
But I really do apologize. I know – if you and I spoke together in person, or even online, you thought we were just chatting. And sure, we were. But I guess I was also working during that time. I was paying attention to little things about you, and asking myself questions about you, and thinking about your story. I do that. I’m sure it’s annoying. But I just can’t help it.
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Of course, not everything is as subtle as simply “paying attention to little things about a person while engaged in conversation.” Not everything is as low-key as watching a stranger and thinking about their story. Sometimes, I just come right out with it. Sometimes, I ask questions that are blatantly intended to find out more about who you are as a person.
A few months ago, my wife and I were talking about movies when we were struck with the following realization:
You can learn a lot about someone by simply finding out what their five favorite movies are.
Don’t believe me?
I texted about 30 friends that day to ask their five favorite movies. One guy sent the following list:
Gladiator
Braveheart
Saving Private Ryan
Spartacus
The Dark Knight
You think you don’t have a feel for what that guy is like? If you can’t guess, I’ll tell you: He’s a good friend to those he is close to; he treats his lady well. He’s not a deep thinker, necessarily, but he works hard, he’s loyal, and he’s dependable. I’m not inferring that from his five favorite movies; I know the guy. Those were the movies on his list – and that’s the kind of guy he is. You probably did not need me to tell you that, though; I imagine you guessed that yourself.
Old School
Fight Club
The Shawshank Redemption
Best In Show
The Hangover
Any guesses?
Go on – give it a try. I’ll wait. Think who this person might be, then I’ll tell you about him…
He’s in his early-thirties. Single. He works in sales and owns his own home – but that’s about as “grown up” as things get. A typical weeknight for him is “hit the gym, come home, eat pizza, watch television or a movie, and go to bed.” A typical weekend? Come on – do I really need to tell you? Hit the clubs (or Tinder) and look for ladies. He’s actually a really nice guy; ladies do love him. I doubt he’ll ever get married, though. At least – not for another five or ten years.
The Big Lebowski
There Will Be Blood
Gangs of New York
The Shining
Birdman
He’s intelligent, irreverent, and basically everyone’s favorite asshole. Oh, and he’s hilarious. I mean…males think he’s hilarious, at least. He has a wife and a couple kids (he’s different around them), but to us he’ll always be the guy who…well, who would have Birdman and The Shining on his “favorite movies” list, and would toss The Big Lebowski in with movies like the ones listed below it.
I don’t have five movies on my own “five favorite movies” list. I have four. I’m still waiting for that fifth one to come along. Maybe it’ll be an old movie I have never seen before. Maybe it’ll be something new. I have some close-calls. Pulp Fiction is certainly on the short list; Annie Hall is another; Cool Hand Luke could make the list; same goes for The Revenant, if we want to skew newer. But for me, a “favorite movie” should be one that pops back up in my head all the time – a movie I think about far more often than I would ever intend to think about a movie. At the moment, there are only four that make the list:
There Will Be Blood
Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind
P.S. I love how this trailer tries to make this look like some happy-go-lucky, Jim Carrey comedy…
Good Will Hunting
Blue Valentine
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This week, we are going to look at three players I like at each position – through the eyes of what their favorite movies probably are…
Three Quarterbacks – And Their “Favorite Movies”
Ben Roethlisberger v Jets – $7,200 DK / $8,600 FD
Reservoir Dogs
Pulp Fiction
Kill Bill: Volume 2
Inglourious Basterds
Grindhouse
Of course Roethlisberger is a Quentin Tarantino fan. That doesn’t surprise me at all…
Tarantino consistently brings it in his movies, and while not all of his performances are going to match Pulp Fiction, he is almost always going to put together a high-end showing.
Last week, Roethlisberger torched the Chiefs for five passing touchdowns – which was sort of his Pulp Fiction performance. And sure, he put up a Grindhouse performance the week before against the Eagles, but those types of showings are few and far between for both Tarantino and Big Ben. More often than not, when these guys don’t have their best stuff, they’re still better than just about anyone out there – relying on the excellent cast they have built around them to mask any deficiencies they might have themselves.
The Jets currently rank second-to-last in the NFL in opponent-adjusted pass defense DVOA, and are allowing the most yards per pass attempt in the NFL. On top of that, the Jets have a top three run defense in both DVOA and yards allowed per carry. The Steelers’ offense should be funneled toward the pass – and even if Ben fails to deliver another Pulp Fiction, he should at least be able to fall into an Inglourious Basterds, which is a pretty darn good consolation performance.
Eli Manning at Packers – $6,000 DK / $7,700 FD
Gangs of New York
The Aviator
Inception
Wolf of Wall Street
The Revenant
We all know the story: For years, Leonardo DiCaprio churned out strong performances in strong movies (perhaps his best performance – Revolutionary Road – did not even make its way onto Eli’s list), and yet, he was unable to ever take home an Oscar.
Over the last three weeks, Eli has averaged over 330 passing yards per game…and yet, he has only one touchdown to show for his strong efforts. This week, he and the Giants’ funnel defense (top five against the run, bottom ten against the pass) travel to take on the Packers…and their funnel defense (top five against the run, bottom ten against the pass). This could easily turn into a back-and-forth, pass-happy game. Even if Eli fails to finally grab his Best Actor, so to speak, he should still give you a solid performance; but in this matchup, and with the projected game flow, there is a strong chance he breaks through for you in a very big way.
Ryan Fitzpatrick at Steelers – $5,100 DK / $6,900 FD
The Fighter
The Perfect Storm
Boogie Nights
The Departed
Marky Mark feat. the Funky Bunch – Good Vibrations (music video)
That’s right – the Bearded One is a huge Marky Mark fan.
I recently read an article on FiveThirtyEight that lumped all of Mark Wahlberg’s movies into categories. In the article, they talked about how Wahlberg has rarely carried a movie on his own, but how he nevertheless puts together some excellent performances when he has a good cast around him. Lately, Fitzpatrick has been more like Wahlberg’s music career, but remember: his last two matchups were “At Kansas City” and “Versus Seattle” – which are about as difficult as things get for a quarterback. With his own team presenting the opposing offense (the high-flying Steelers) with a classic “funnel” defense – shutting down the run and getting torched by the pass – Fitzpatrick will have to throw in order to keep up. The good news? The Steelers rank 17th in DVOA against the pass and 17th in yards allowed per pass attempt – and Fitzpatrick has a good enough supporting cast around him that he can more than carry his weight (i.e., pay off his salary). While the likeliest scenario this week has Fitzpatrick putting together a performance along the lines of Wahlberg in The Fighter (in which every main actor except Wahlberg was nominated for an Oscar) – a performance in which he helps elevate those around him while simply paying off his own salary and helping you do more in the other spots on your roster – there is also a chance he gives you a Departed performance. Wahlberg deservedly picked up a Best Supporting Actor nomination in that flick in spite of playing a fairly small role, and Fitzpatrick could post a high-end outing this week at extremely low ownership.
Of course, the stench of Marky Mark and the Funky Bunch still lingers – but here’s to expecting Fitzpatrick will put his last two performances behind him in the same way Mark Wahlberg did long ago.
Three Running Backs – And Their “Favorite Movies”
DeMarco Murray at Dolphins – $7,200 DK / $8,400 FD
Iron Man
The Dark Knight
Titanic
Jaws
The Island
You don’t remember The Island? It came out in 2005 – with Scarlett Johansson and Ewan McGregor. It cost $126 million to produce…and made only $36 million in the U.S. box office. I believe DeMarco added this movie to his “top five” last season, while he was paid top dollar in Philadelphia to underperform in a huge and crushing way.
But while there is certainly a stigma that is sometimes carried by “big-budget movies” and “big-money free agents” alike, the honest truth is, no one cares what the cost was when the production is great. The other movies on DeMarco’s list – regardless of your tastes – are all solid flicks, and so far this season, DeMarco has been solid as well. What’s more…well, the narrative says DeMarco is the “clear lead back” in Tennessee at the moment. We should always exercise caution with media-driven, fantasy-related statements such as that, as NFL usage can be very fluid from week to week. But even if his 25 carries in Week 4 prove to be an outlier, DeMarco’s touch totals on the season look like this: 18, 19, 21, 27. The Dolphins are a better run defense than the public is giving them credit for, but this is still a solid matchup for DeMarco – and even if he is not worth every dollar of his real-life or DFS salary, he should still bring a solid performance with his pass game usage, his goal line usage, and his overall role in the offense.
Devonta Freeman at Broncos – $5,000 DK / $7,400 FD
The Shawshank Redemption
There Will Be Blood
Saving Private Ryan
Goodfellas
E.T.
The Shawshank Redemption was nominated for Best Picture the same year as Forrest Gump.
There Will Be Blood was nominated for Best Picture the same year as No Country for Old Men.
Saving Private Ryan was nominated for Best Picture the same year as Shakespeare in Love.
Goodfellas was nominated for Best Picture the same year as Dances with Wolves.
E.T. was nominated for Best Picture the same year as Ghandi.
All of the movies on Devonta’s “favorite movie” list failed to win Best Picture; the matchup was just too tough. In retrospect, however, some of those matchups were really not as difficult as they seemed at the time. I mean – really? Saving Private Ryan lost to Shakespeare in Love? And I apologize if you’re a Forrest Gump truther, but…really? The Shawshank Redemption was not the best film that year?
While everyone will surely stay away from Freeman because the matchup is “just too tough,” we may realize in retrospect that the matchup was not as difficult as it seemed. The Broncos currently rank 23rd in opponent-adjusted run defense DVOA. They are also allowing 4.2 yards per carry (19th), 113.8 rushing yards per game (22nd), and a DVOA ranking of 18th to running backs coming out of the backfield to catch passes. While Tevin Coleman is expected to play this week, he does have sickle cell trait, which is affected by altitude; this should yield a few more looks to Freeman than he has been seeing to date (touch totals so far of 15, 17, 19, and 15; I won’t be surprised if he hits 20 touches this week), and if it turns out the numbers are accurate – if the matchup is not as difficult as it seems – he could be a week-winner at his depressed price. Sure, he might have no shot at taking down Best Picture, so to speak, but he’s definitely in position to give himself a chance.
Isaiah Crowell v Patriots – $4,800 DK / $6,800 FD
The Town
Gone Baby Gone
Argo
Gone Girl
Paycheck
Crowell is a huge fan of Ben Affleck movies.
Because of the sharp and extended drop-off Affleck experienced early in his career, many people overlooked him for years. When The Town was being released in theaters, the trailer did not even say, “From director Ben Affleck.” Nope. It said, “From the acclaimed director of Gone Baby Gone.” Even at that point, no one would have read the words, “Directed by Ben Affleck,” and thought, “Oh my gosh, I gotta call up Marge and go see that in theaters!”
Four weeks into the season, Crowell carries Pro Football Focus’ number one running back rating (and number three rusher rating), but no one sees Crowell’s name at a depressed price and thinks, “I have to get him on my roster.” While one line of thinking is that the Patriots will “stack the box and force Cody Kessler to beat them,” a decade and a half of watching Belichick leads me to believe something a bit different: the Patriots will play fundamentally sound, bend-but-don’t-break defense, with a focus on taking away Terrelle Pryor and forcing the young Browns team to put together sustained drives. This is very much Belichick’s style: give up short plays, prevent long plays, and wait around for the opponent to make a mistake. If this is the way the Patriots lean this week, Crowell will have room to pick up yards – and if he cracks 100 and sneaks in for a score, you’ll be in tremendous shape. Of course, he’s a risky play, as he could very well still throw a Paycheck in there, but there’s a solid chance he gives you The Town instead – and in tourneys, where no one will be on him, that could make a massive difference.
Three Wide Receivers – And Their “Favorite Movies”
Jordy Nelson v Giants – $7,900 DK / $8,400 FD
2001: A Space Odyssey
Barry Lyndon
There Will Be Blood
The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford
The Thin Red Line
Jordy Nelson is really into slow-paced movies that nevertheless manage to pack a big punch. I don’t think his list used to look like this, but things changed after he missed a season recovering from a torn ACL.
If you watch Jordy right now with an impartial eye – forgetting about the box score and trusting what you see – he looks quite a bit slower than he looked in the past. He is not getting the same separation he used to get, and he is certainly not outrunning anyone in the open field. But even without the quickness of some of his counterparts, he is still just so darn good.
So far this season, Jordy is averaging nine targets per game, and this is the perfect time to roster him: coming off the bye, when his legs will be rested. What’s more, the Giants have a strong run defense and a poor (and banged-up) pass defense. I expect both sides to lean far more heavily on the pass than on the run this week, which should lead to plenty of involvement from Jordy once again. Who cares if he’s a bit slow; he’s still likely to yield one of the best performances on the weekend by the time the curtain falls.
Travis Benjamin at Raiders – $6,500 DK / $6,500 FD
After Earth
Men In Black 3
Wild Wild West
Bad Boys II
Independence Day
Will Smith has made something of a habit of creating poor movies while still convincing everyone to love him and think he is great. Honestly, I think we’re all just hoping and hanging on, as we know the talent is in there for him to pop off for a game-changing performance.
No wonder Travis Benjamin lists so many Will Smith duds (and one Will Smith classic, in Independence Day) among his favorite movies. Ever since Keenan Allen went down, Travis Benjamin has been popular; and even though Benjamin’s one big performance – 115 yards and two touchdowns in Week 2 – was not nearly as good as it appeared, considering it was backed up by only six targets (“not nearly as good as it appeared?” – hey, that could be said for a lot of Will Smith movies as well…), there is still the talent and opportunity for Benjamin to pop off for a big game.
The matchup this week should bring up somewhat conflicting emotions for all of us, considering the Raiders genuinely have one of the best cornerback tandems in the NFL…and yet have posted possibly the worst pass defense on the season. But one thing we can say is that the big corners on the Raiders sometimes struggle against smaller, shiftier perimeter receivers (see: Brandin Cooks in Week 1, and Steve Smith in Week 4). Benjamin could drop Wild Wild West on you this week – just as he has the last couple weeks – but he also has some classics in there, and this could very well be one of the weeks in which he posts Independence Day and reminds you why you liked him in the first place.
Quincy Enunwa at Steelers – $4,600 DK / $6,200 FD
Sling Blade
A Simple Plan
Bad Santa
Monster’s Ball
Bad News Bears
By any impartial measure, Billy Bob Thornton is not a particularly attractive man. But how much has that really mattered? He was married to Angelina Jolie back in the day, and he has made an excellent career for himself in Hollywood – where beauty is typically required in order to achieve success. I guess Quincy Enunwa is trying to tell us something with his list of favorite movies…
When you lock Enunwa onto a roster, it doesn’t look good. In fact, it looks nearly as “not good” as Billy Bob Thornton. But who cares about looks! Even ol’ Billy Bob’s bad movies are generally pretty good – especially when you factor in expectations. And given how low-priced Enunwa is, and the opportunity he should have this week, even a “bad” game from him should yield a solid outing.
I am writing this with the full assumption that there is no way Eric Decker actually takes the field this week – though honestly, even if Decker does have a role in the offense this weekend, Enunwa still shapes up as a solid point-per-dollar play. Without Decker, Enunwa should get the sort of “eight or more targets” assurance that would usually cost you about $2k more on either site – making him the sort of play that could give you a Sling Blade if all goes according to plan, and could still pay off with a Bad Santa even if things don’t work out quite right.
Three Tight Ends – And Their “Favorite Movies”
Delanie Walker at Dolphins – $4,700 DK / $6,400 FD
Under the Skin
Drive
Fruitvale Station
Revolutionary Road
Into the Wild
You may have seen some of these movies. You may have seen all of these movies.
Conversely, you may have heard of some of these movies. You may have heard of none of these movies.
Regardless: these are all excellent movies that somehow managed to go severely overlooked (it’s nice that Delanie put Revolutionary Road on his list, after Peyton’s little brother overlooked it on his Leo list above).
While everyone knows that Delanie Walker is one of the top tight ends in football, he finds himself in a “middle range” of pricing that many end up skipping over, as they look to either pay up or pay down at the position. What’s more, he finds himself in an offense that people are, by this point, generally happy to avoid. But the Titans seem incapable at the moment of generating any serious offensive traction through the wide receiver position (they’re expected to expand the role of Andre Johnson this week, for crying out loud…), and the matchup is excellent, as Miami ranks 30th in DVOA against the tight end position. So far this year, Delanie has target totals of five, six, and eight – and I expect him to land in the seven-plus range again this weekend. Much like the movies on his list: he has as much upside as any of his competition, but he is likely to go overlooked.
Zach Miller at Colts – $3,600 DK / $5,400 FD
The Finest Hours
Gangster Squad
Smokin’ Aces
Coach Carter
Save the Last Dance
Zach Miller lives for January. That’s his favorite time of year for movies. All the big-budget movies that were not quite good enough to compete during summer blockbuster season? They save ’em for January! All the movies that were gunning for awards but turned out to be too poorly-made to compete with the well-made, potential classics being released throughout November and December? Yup – January. All the teen flicks that are not going to find a big audience at any other time of year? You guessed it: January. These movies might not be all that good, but by saving them for just the right situation, the studios are able to make some money off of them, as there is really nothing else to compete with them at the time.
Alshon Jeffery is dealing with his usual assortment of leg injuries, and should be shadowed this week by Vontae Davis.
Kevin White is on I.R.
Marquess Wilson is still on the PUP list.
Eddie Royal is banged up.
Zach Miller may not be the most talented guy on the field, but he is facing a Colts team that ranks dead last in DVOA against the tight end, he has a backup quarterback under center who is happy to check down to the tight end, and he is pretty much the pass-catching equivalent right now of a studio saving a movie for January: he can achieve a relative level of success, simply because there is no competition. Brian Hoyer will have to throw to someone this week in the same way people need something in theaters in January – and as you can see from Miller’s list of favorite movies, he is going to be more than happy to step up (not to be confused with Step Up 2: The Streets – which was a February release), and to yield some relatively solid production for your Week 5 roster.
Zach Ertz at Lions – $3,500 DK / $5,600 FD
Orange County
Office Space
Billy Madison
Zoolander
Considering these are Ertz’ favorite movies, it makes sense he’s not all that good at counting.
Here’s the thing about his “five” favorite movies, though: none of those movies are really all that funny. Blasphemy, you say? If you do say, I encourage you to go back and watch those movies and see how many times you genuinely and uproariously laugh out loud. In my mind, all of those movies are far funner for their quotability than for how funny they actually are when you watch them. There are slow parts in those movies. There are dumb parts in those movies. There are pretty lengthy stretches where you won’t laugh at all. The true test of those movies is to show one of them to a fellow adult who has never seen them before. If you did not watch those movies as a teenager or at least a young adult, you are unlikely to think they are as funny upon initial viewing as you would have back in the day.
And yet: we probably all love at least one movie on that list. Maybe all the movies on that list. I’m in the same boat myself. There isn’t really a reason to love them as much as we do, but no matter – we love them as much as we do.
For a couple years now, people have loved Zach Ertz. Never mind that the guy has played 48 games so far across four seasons…and has amassed only nine touchdowns. Never mind that the guy has gone over 70 yards only seven times in 48 games (with four of those coming in the last four games of 2015). Never mind that he’s technically the number two tight end on his team, behind blocking body Brent Celek. People love Ertz – and I’m in the same boat myself.
This week, Ertz will return as the pass catching tight end against a defense that ranks 29th (DVOA) against the position. He should see around seven targets again, and he’ll probably leave us wondering why we liked him quite as much as we all did. But when it’s all said and done, even a performance that simply reflects his favorite movies could still leave you looking back fondly on the weekend he gave you – enough so that you might even forget it was not all that good in the first place.
But enough about these guys.
What are your five favorite movies?
Let us know below – then get to work on those rosters!
I’ll see you at the top of the leaderboards when Sunday night rolls around.