DFS Alerts

Zach LaVine (knee) ruled out Wednesday

Despite head coach Billy Donovan confirming his starting lineup to reporters at Tuesday’s practice, LaVine will now reportedly be held out of the Bulls’ season opener as he nurses a left knee injury. In the preseason game LaVine was sidelined, Coby White drew the start alongside Ayon Dosunmu in the backcourt, so look for him and Alex Caruso to take on expanded roles in tonight’s matchup with the Miami Heat.

Thomas Bryant (thumb) out at least 3 weeks following surgery.

Thomas Bryant (thumb) out at least 3 weeks following surgery.

Today's Top Projected Pitcher Has Top Defense on the Board Behind HIm

Though he only struck out four of 28 batters, Yu Darvish shut the Mets down over seven innings (six hits, one run) in the Wild Card series. He followed up by striking out seven of 23 Dodgers, but with three runs over five innings against the Dodgers. Darvish allowed 22 home runs during the regular season (771 BF), but already four this post-season. He failed to go at least six innings just twice this year, once in his second start and again early in the season by a single out. The second half strikeout rate (28.8%) was much higher than the first (23%). He did allow 9.0% Barrels/BBE, but with the increasing strikeout rate and 4.8 BB%, it wasn’t too big a problem. The San Diego defense is the best on the board today (25 Runs Prevented was second best in the league). Every pitcher that Darvish threw this year (and there were several of them) grade better than average by Statcast. The one he threw most frequently was the cutter (35.3%, -0.6 RV/100, 25.6 Whiff%) was one of only two pitches (curveball being the other) that the Phillies were below average against in the second half (-0.56 wFC/C). Two caveats being that the it wasn’t a very large sample for the Phillies and that Darvish’s cutter had both a wOBA and xwOBA against above .350. Four of nine in the projected Phillies’ lineup have at least a 24.5 K% vs RHP this year, via PlateIQ, but none of the other five reach 20%. The top four all exceed a 100 wRC+ and .150 ISO vs RHP this year, though Brandon Marsh is the only bottom half batter exceeding those marks. Darvish is the most expensive pitcher on either site (tied on DraftKIngs). He is also the top projected arm and value on either site.

The Phillies have a 3.17 team run total that’s second from the bottom today, while RHBs (.284 wOBA, .312 xwOBA) were a bit better than LHBs (.239 wOBA, .277 xwOBA) against Darvish this season. The four guys exceeding a 100 wRC+ and .150 ISO for the Phillies are all top 10 projected bats tonight: Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber, J.T. Realmuto and Rhys Hoskins in that order. For less than $3K, Marsh (105 wRC+, .159 ISO) is a top 10 projected value on either site. He’s joined on FanDuel by a $2.7K Nick Castellanos (92 wRC+, .139 ISO).

Second Highest Team Run Total Projects Only a Single Top 10 Bat

Zack Wheeler will be starting Game One of the NLCS on six days rest. While San Diego is the more negative run environment in play today, the weather is expected to be extremely hitter friendly with a neutral umpiring assignment (Brian Knight). Wheeler struck out just four of the 22 Cardinals he faced in the Wild Card round with a single walk, a HBP and four hits over 6.2 shutout innings. He then struck out five of 24 Braves, but did allow three runs in less than six innings in Atlanta in the Division Series. Wheeler missed a month near the end of the season, but came back to strike out 15 of his final 52 batters. The discouraging part of that is that his swinging strike rate did not exceed 8.1% in any start since his return and averages at 5.6%. However, his velocity was intact with 63.9% of his contact on the ground and an 85.4 mph EV. Striking out a healthy 26.9% of batters (21.3 K-BB%), he’s the rare Phillies’ pitcher with all estimators above his 2.82 ERA, though they only extend to a 3.19 SIERA. That’s said because the Phillies are the only post-season team with a below average defense. In fact, -31 Runs Prevented is second worst in the majors, though Realmuto remains a top catcher (11.3 CDA is seventh) and they did improve the defense with some trade deadline acquisitions. The Padres had 101 wRC+, 22.0 K% and 9.6 HR/FB vs RHP this year with four of the top five in the projected lineup below an 18 K% vs RHP this year. Wheeler did dominate the Padres on a May 18th start in Philadelphia (7 IP – 4 H – 0 R – 0 BB – 9 K – 24 BF). Wheeler’s two best pitches by Statcast Run Values were both of his fastballs (four-seam and sinker), which make up about 60% of his pitches. The Padres were exactly neutral (0.00 wFB/C) against fastballs in the second half of the season, but did struggle against sliders (-0.19 wSL/C), which was Wheeler’s third best pitch (26.8%, -0.4 RV/100, 24.4 Whiff%, .272 wOBA, .262 xwOBA). The second most expensive pitcher on either site (tied on FanDuel), Wheeler is the second best projected pitcher and value on either site.

A 3.33 implied run line for the Padres is second best on the board, but still more than half a run below the Yankees. Wheeler has very little split with batters from either side of the plate between a .262 and .290 wOBA and xwOBA this year, though despite Manny Machado (158 wRC+, .226 ISO vs RHP this year) smashing RHP nearly as well as Juan Soto (166 wRC+, .249 ISO), the latter is the only San Diego bat projecting among the top 10 today. He is also the only top 10 projecting value among Padres on FanDuel ($3.5K). However, within $300 of $3K each, Josh Bell (121 wRC+, .143 ISO) and Trent Grisham (83 wRC+, .156 ISO) project as top 10 DraftKings values. The latter’s bat has really come alive in the post-season.

Three Days Rest Makes This Pitcher the Worst Projected Value

The decision to pitch Nestor Cortes on three days’ rest could be justified by Cleveland’s 84 wRC+ (20.7 K%, 6.9 HR/FB) vs LHP this year, which is about 20 points less than their performance against RHP, though he wasn’t extremely impressive in the Game Two against them, striking out and walking three each of 23 batters. Not being a pitcher who generally pitches deep into games anyway, it could be just twice through the order on short rest or even much less should he experience similar traffic on the bases to that last start. Cortes finished up his season with 13.1 shutout innings, striking out 15 of 45 batters. On the season, he struck out 26.5% (20.3 K-BB%) of batters with an 11.1 SwStr% and only allowed 5.3% Barrels/BBE, despite a 33.5 GB% because batters only made hard contact 34.7% of the time against him. That put his 2.44 ERA most in line with, but still well below a 2.70 xERA with contact neutral estimators around three and a half. A Yankee defense with 16 Runs Prevented and a .268 BABIP allowed helped and Harrison Bader will only make It better, but a .232 BABIP and 82.8 LOB% still merit some regression concerns. Jose Trevino was also the best defensive catcher in the game this year (20.5 CDA) by a pretty fair margin. Cortes did get in two starts against Cleveland this year (12.1 IP – 3 ER – 2 HR – 2 BB – 14 K – 42 BF), both prior to the break. While the cutter was a strong offering for Cortes too, the four-seamer was his best pitch (44%, -2.2 RV/100, 25.4 Whiff%, .205 wOBA, .239 xwOBA), while the Guardians were the fifth worst offense against fastballs in the second half (-0.5 wFB/C). The projected Cleveland lineup includes just three batters above a 100 wRC+ vs LHP this year and one of them was the left-handed Andres Gimenez, while batters from that side of the plate had just a .161 wOBA and .226 xwOBA against Cortes this season. He and fellow ex-Met Amed Rosario (one of the other two above a 100 wRC+ against LHP this year) did drive in the only two runs against Cortes in Game Two, the latter with a fifth inning home run. Nobody in the projected Cleveland lineup exceeded a .180 ISO vs LHP this year. None the less, Cortes is essentially tied for the worst projection on the board tonight, but is alone as the worst projected value on either site. He is tied for the most expensive price tag on DraftKings and second most on FanDuel.

RHBs had only a bit more success against Cortes this season, within two points of a .260 wOBA and xwOBA. Despite not being one of the three in the projected lineup exceeding a 100 wRC+ vs LHP this year, Jose Ramirez (97 wRC+, .178 ISO vs LHP this year) is the only top 10 projected Cleveland bat with the offense pulling up the rear today at a 3.04 run team total. However, Josh Naylor (53 wRC+, .064 ISO) projects as a top 10 value on either site and could face a couple of RHPs later in the game. Oscar Gonzalez (107 wRC+, .174 ISO) projects as a top FD value ($2.5K). Owen Miller (77 wRC+, .117 ISO) projects as a top DraftKings value ($2.4K).

All Hands on Deck Against Top Offense Today

A well-handled PPD by MLB in New York last night leads to an impromptu two game slate on Tuesday, which includes an ALDS and NLCS game. It would seem the most important thing to note here is that the ALDS game being a finale means an all hands on deck situation, whereas we can probably trust the pitchers in the NLCS game to have quite a bit more leeway. Aaron Civale will remain the starting pitcher for the Guardians. He is the cheapest pitcher on either site, but in addition to this being an elimination game, he hasn’t pitched in two weeks. That said, Civale was tremendous over his last 10 outings, striking out 26.8% of batters with just seven walks (23.2 K-BB%) and an 86.7 mph EV, allowing just five barrels (3.7%). Civale had a 3.00 ERA and FIP and 3.02 xFIP over this span. He allowed eight home runs and 16 barrels over his first 10 starts. Perhaps a great outing gets him through the order twice. There are some strikeouts in the top two-thirds of the Yankee order, which has been confirmed, with five of the first six with a 23% or higher strikeout rate vs RHP this year, while none of the bottom third reach a 100 wRC+ vs RHP this year. Civale, like just about every post-season team except the Phillies, has a great defense behind him today (14 Runs Prevented) and one of the top defensive catchers in baseball because we know Austin Hedges (11.4 CDA) isn’t in there for his offense (though Nestor Cortes did walk him twice in Game Two). In terms of pitch mix, Civale had an above average curveball and sinker via Statcast measures, which made up about half of his pitches, though the Yankees were above average against both pitches in the second half of the season. The park may be power friendly, but actually slightly run negative, though Alan Porter is a hitter friendly umpire who tends to squeeze the strike zone. Winds are expected to be blowing out to center at near 10 mph, but effects could be counteracted by temperatures in the high 50s. No surprise that Civale is essentially tied for the worst projection on the board, but actually projects as a better value than Cortes, who is going on three days rest.

On the offensive side of things, the Yankees top the board at 3.96 implied runs, despite the Cleveland pen owning a 2.92 FIP and 3.06 SIERA over the last 30 days of the season and everyone being available, even starters. Civale, himself, had virtually no split this year with batters from either side of the plate between a .297 and .317 wOBA and xwOBA against him. Yet, three of the top five projected batters and four of the top 10 on either site are Yankees. We know who the top projected bat on the board is: Aaron Judge (217 wRC+, .384 ISO vs RHP this season). He is closely followed by Giancarlo Stanton (124 wRC+, .271 ISO) and Anthony Rizzo (125 wRC+, .235 ISO) with Gleyber Torres (110 wRC+, .165 ISO) projecting in the latter half of the top 10 out of the leadoff spot today. The top four projected FanDuel values and four of the top six on DraftKings are also Yankees. On FD, five Yankees project as top 10 values overall with Stanton the only one also a top 10 projected bats. This includes the bottom five minus just Jose Trevino, all costing less than $3K, the only one of the five below a 90 wRC+ vs RHP this year. On DK, each of the bottom five project as top 10 values. That means that every single bat in the Yankee order projects as either a top 10 bat and/or value on at least one of the big two. Yankee stackers have some decisions to make.

Patrick Baldwin (thumb) questionable to play on Tuesday.

Patrick Baldwin (thumb) questionable to play on Tuesday.

Andre Iguodala (hip) will not play on Tuesday.

Andre Iguodala (hip) will not play on Tuesday.

Rapoport: WAS QB Carson Wentz (finger) facing a recovery time of roughly 4-6 weeks.

Rapoport: WAS QB Carson Wentz (finger) facing a recovery time of roughly 4-6 weeks.

Portland Trail Blazers sign Nassir Little to a four-year, 28M extension.

Portland Trail Blazers sign Nassir Little to a four-year, 28M extension.

Houston Rockets sign Kevin Porter Jr. to a four-year, $82.5 million extension.

Houston Rockets sign Kevin Porter Jr. to a four-year, $82.5 million extension.

Bucks’ Khris Middleton expected to miss the first few weeks of the regular season.

Bucks’ Khris Middleton expected to miss the first few weeks of the regular season.

DAL WR CeeDee Lamb (hip) is active tonight.

DAL WR CeeDee Lamb (hip) is active tonight.

BUF WR Jake Kumerow (ankle) is inactive today

BUF WR Jake Kumerow (ankle) is inactive today

BUF RB Zack Moss is inactive today.

BUF RB Zack Moss is inactive today.