DFS Alerts
Updated weather report has improvement in Philadelphia, but not so much in Washington (ORANGE rating)
Check out Kevin Roth’s weather report. The NYM v PHI game has been upgraded to YELLOW/ORANGE, but the PIT v WAS game is now rated as ORANGE. Read Roth’s full weather report for more details.
As reported by: RotoGrinders MLB Weather
Kyle Seager will move to the cleanup spot with Cruz out of the lineup
Kyle Seager has been mashing RHP this year, sporting a wRC+ of 178 versus righties, with an ISO OF 0.296. Seager is a fantastic play against RHP, providing a high floor, striking out only 13 % of the time in at-bats versus RHPs.
As reported by: FanGraphs and MLB Press Nelson Cruz has been scratched
Franklin Gutierrez will enter the lineup, playing RF and batting 7th for the M’s.
As reported by: Mariners Twitter and MLB Press 3 reasons to play: Josh Donaldson
Firstly, Donaldson is batting second and should get an extra at bat since the game is an away game. Secondly, Donaldson has posted an impressive 161 wRC+ this year against RHP, along with a silly good 0.305 ISO. Thirdly, Sonny Gray has had poor peripheral numbers in recent starts, striking out 18% of batters and giving up a line drive percentage of 28%. Look for Donaldson to hit it hard somewhere, and potentially over the fence.
As reported by: FanGraphs and MLB Press Other tagged players: Sonny Gray Marcus Semien has proven he can hit the knuckleball
The Athletics face R.A. Dickey today and predicting success for hitters against knuckleballers can be a tricky task, but we do know that Semien has proven he can have success against the knuckleball. Semien has a 5.99 wKN/C*, dating back to the beginning of the 2014 season. His teammate, Stephen Vogt has been less prolific, but still possesses a respectable 2.36 wKN/C against the knuckleball.
*wKN/C is weighted Knuckleball runs per 100 pitches and indicates the number of runs above average a batter was against a specific pitch type
Brad Miller is interesting, but targeting Tillman with batters has been hit or miss in recent starts
Tillman has not been missing very many bats lately,striking out less than 13% of batters in his last couple of starts. He has also been a little worse versus LHBs, exhibiting an xFIP of 4.87. His k rate is likely what has led to him limiting the damage, striking out both LHBs and RHBs 21% of the time. Brad Miller for the Rays is worth a look, but his wRC+ against RHPs is not overly impressive, standing at a modest 102.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Chris Tillman The Roth Weather Report has YELLOW/ORANGE in both Philadelphia and Washington
Kevin Roth warns of the weather in Philadelphia and Washington, but he does acknowledge that things may change some by game time. Check out the full weather report for details.
As reported by: RotoGrinders MLB Weather Astros impied run total has decreased to 3.8 runs, strikeout at a 23.8% clip versus LHP
Paxton (3.94 SIERA) started his season extremely well, but his strikeouts have all but disappeared in his last two starts. The dip in strikeouts for Paxton were even supported by a concerning 7.8% SwStr% compared to a 12.6% SwStr% in his other six starts. However, we don’t have a significant sample size on either side of the argument to be able to trust the numbers entirely. The smart approach is to examine the overall season stats for Paxton. In doing so, we see a pitcher that resembles the pitcher he has been in prior years. An average strikeout pitcher (20.8% K%) that induces a decent number of groundballs (49.7% GB%). Paxton has shown an increase in velocity and SwStr% this season so there is hope that this is the new pitcher we can expect from here on out. The matchup against Houston definitely carries some risk, but the Astros lineup also increase the potential strikeout upside of Paxton.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Vegas Odds
LHBs have a .372 wOBA and 34.9 Hard% against Andrew Cashner since last season
In between injuries, Andrew Cashner has been a shell of his former self this season with just a 6.0 K-BB%. LHBs have a .372 wOBA and 34.9 Hard% against him since last season, making Brandon Belt (143 wRC+, .199 ISO vs RHP since 2015) and Brandon Crawford (121 wRC+, .207 ISO vs RHP since 2015) strong plays tonight with the latter just $2.9K on FanDuel. In fact, all of the LH bats in this lineup are playable at more reasonable prices as every batter in the lineup has at least a 92 wRC+ vs RHP this season with the top five all at 105 or better.
Other tagged players: Brandon Belt, Andrew Cashner
Valencia OUT against leading ground ball pitcher in the majors (Stroman 59.9%)
Marcus Stroman has his strikeout rate to 20.6% (10.6 SwStr%) over the last month, giving him a potentially higher floor against an offense with an 18.1 K% vs RHP, but it’s not a good offense (81 wRC+ at home, 84 wRC+ vs RHP) with little power and even less with Danny Valencia out of the lineup tonight. Making things more difficult for Oakland is Stroman’s league leading 59.9 GB%. Add the top ground ball rate to a respectable strikeout rate and stick them in a good park against a weak offense and this is a pitcher that starts to look really good for less than $8K on either site tonight. While dependence on batted ball outcomes is not often an encouraged approach to daily fantasy pitching, this looks like a rare case where it seems more comfortable due to the matchup and price. With Stroman keeping batters from both sides grounded at an equally high rate, there’s no interest in the Oakland bats tonight.
Padres are a top offense versus LHP (119 wRC+, .347 wOBA, .178 ISO)
Bumgarner isn’t the slam dunk play that most believe tonight. The Padres have shockingly become an elite offense versus LHP, owning a fourth-ranked .347 wOBA against southpaws for the season. That it a massive difference to their 29th ranked wOBA against RHP. It’s pretty mind-boggling how massive their splits have been thus far. Bumgarner obviously has the skill set and pitching pedigree to dominate any matchup, and the Padres do strike out at the sixth-highest rate in the majors against LHP (23.8%). A big concern with Bumgarner is that his 3.30 SIERA is almost a run and a half higher than his 1.90 ERA. Meaning the regression monster is likely to strike at some point, if not soon. Bumgarner is also allowing hard contact rate of 32%, which is the highest Hard% of his career. Bumgarner could be an interesting tournament fade in a tough matchup against the Padres with other pitchers having similar upside on this slate. The park is still favorable with potential upside so we shouldn’t bet on Bumgarner getting blown up with a Padres stack.
As reported by: FanGraphs LHBs have a .374 wOBA, 39.3 Hard% and 12 HRs against Doug Fister this season
Doug Fister does not miss enough bats in to be useful in a daily fantasy sense, but has held RHBs to a .245 wOBA with a 58.5 GB% this season, which is enough to take all of them not named Nelson Cruz (135 wRC+, .228 ISO vs RHP since 2015) out of play tonight. LHBs have pounded him however (.374 wOBA, 12 HRs, 39.2 GB%, 39.3 Hard%). Cano (176 wRC+, .310 ISO vs RHP this season) and Seager (178 wRC+, .301 ISO vs RHP this season) are top bats at their positions, with Seth Smith (135 wRC+, .186 ISO vs RHP this season) rates a bit below them due to the PH risk. It’s a tough park, but it hasn’t stopped the Mariners, who have a 17.4 HR/FB at Safeco this season.
Other tagged players: Kyle Seager, Seth Smith, Nelson Cruz, Doug Fister Kevin Roth's MLB weather forecast has been updated
There’s not too many weather concerns tonight that carry any sort of substantial risk. Check out the link below for Kevin Roth’s full breakdown on tonight’s games. Also, make sure to follow Kevin Roth on Twitter for continued updates (@KevinRothWx).
As reported by: RotoGrinders MLB Weather Page Patrick Corbin has allowed 12 HRs with a 45.3 Hard% in 8 home starts
Patrick Corbin has allowed 12 HRs at home in just 203 plate appearances this season with 10 of them going to RHBs, though batters from both side have a wOBA above .390 against him at home this year and a hard hit rate well above 40%. The Dodgers only have two batters with a wRC+ above 100 against LHP this season and Yasmani Grandal (130 wRC+, .143 ISO) tops the lineup and went into the All Star break with a hot bat, but bats 7th tonight, perhaps limiting his appeal as much as Catcher eligibility enhances it with a marginal price tag. Corey Seager (88 wRC+, .196 ISO vs LHP this season) is the top bat for power and the only other one besides Grandal with an ISO even above .130 vs LHP this year. Howie Kendrick (114 wRC+) has come around recently and has some appeal at leadoff for less than $3.5K on either site. While Corbin is ripe for the picking, Dodger bats just haven’t been very potent against southpaws this season.
Other tagged players: Yasmani Grandal, Patrick Corbin, Corey Seager Daniel Murphy scratched Friday; Clint Robinson to play 1st and bat 8th
Murphy was scratched with general leg soreness and will be replaced by Clint Robinson at 1st base. Robinson will bat 8th, shifting Michael Taylor to the 2-hole and Danny Espinosa up to the 7-spot. Taylor should be treated as a viable punt play with his shift in the batting order.
As reported by: Chase Hughes Other tagged players: Clint Robinson, Michael A. Taylor