DFS Alerts
Pirates have the lowest implied run total on the slate (3.0)
Strasburg (3.10 SIERA, 24.1% K-BB%) has reached double digit strikeouts in seven starts this season and his 31.4% strikeout rate is the 4th best mark in the majors. Strasburg faces a good Pirates lineups, but they are merely average versus RHP (101 wRC+, .321 wOBA, .146 ISO). Those middling stats along with the Pirates 20.8% K% make Strasburg a viable play with significant upside. The masses will most likely gravitate to Madison Bumgarner in a not-as-good-as-it-seems matchup against the Padres. This makes Strasburg an amazing tournament pivot given he has as much, if not more, upside than Bumgarner on this slate.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Vegas Odds
Jake Lamb (166 wRC+, .341 ISO vs RHP this season) costs just $3.5K on FanDuel at home
Bud Norris has a 19.6 K-BB% and 26.9 Hard% in seven starts since returning from a bullpen banishment in Atlanta. While Arizona has just a 91 wRC+ and 23.3 K% vs RHP, they have a 16.8 HR/FB at home. A dangerous park and the fact that Norris has only completed six innings in three of those seven starts are the biggest concerns, though he’s a viable secondary pitcher option for a low $6.3K cost on DraftKings. Arizona only has a few bats worthy of consideration against RHP, but Jake Lamb (166 wRC+, .341 ISO vs RHP this season) has turned into a beast. He costs $5.5K on DK, but is a great value at just $3.5K on FD. LHBs still have a .375 wOBA and .401 Hard% vs Norris since last season. Paul Goldschmidt (148 wRC+, .217 ISO vs RHP since last season) is worth a roster spot, though not cheap in most home games. Chris Herrmann (111 wRC+, .225 ISO vs RHP this season) sneaks into the OF as a great value at Catcher for $2.8K on FanDuel tonight.
Other tagged players: Bud Norris, Paul Goldschmidt, Chris Herrmann
RHBs have a .341 wOBA with 25 HRs against Wei-Yin Chen since last season
RHBs have a .341 wOBA with 25 HRs against Wei-Yin Chen since last season and this is important because the Cardinals have eight of them tonight, including Randal Grichuk in the leadoff spot. He has just a 50 wRC+ and .113 vs LHP this season, but gains value for $2.5K on FanDuel in the leadoff spot and still has a .213 ISO against them since last season. Stephen Piscotty (169 wRC+, .221 ISO vs LHP career) is the top bat at a high price here. Matt Holliday (.244 ISO) is the only other batter with an ISO above .200 vs LHP this season, but that comes with just an 87 wRC+, which is probably why he costs just $3.3K on DraftKings.
Other tagged players: Randal Grichuk, Wei-Yin Chen, Matt Holliday Archer aiming to overcome HR and BB issues in tough matchup versus Orioles.
We all know what we are getting into when we roster Archer at this point. Archer has become the epitome of a tournament-only option in almost every matchup. His .321 BABIP and 18% HR/FB rate tells us that Archer has been pretty unlucky thus far and his advanced stats are actually still more than respectable (3.84 SIERA, 3.66 xFIP). His 27% strikeout rate is well above league average and is accompanied by a solid 11.4% SwStr%. However, Archer is still walking far too many batters (9.9% BB%) and allowing a ton of hard contact (34.5%). A matchup against the powerful Orioles lineup is far from an ideal as well. The upside and expected low ownership always make Archer a strong tournament play. We shouldn’t heavily target the Orioles hitters but some of the power bats can definitely be considered. Mark Trumbo (.280 ISO vs RHP), Manny Machado (.254 ISO vs RHP), and Chris Davis (.266 ISO vs RHP) make for the best options if going that route.
Other tagged players: Mark Trumbo, Manny Machado, Chris Davis Jorge de la Rosa offers solid upside against inept Braves lineup
De La Rosa is one of our top dollar per point targets of the day against a dreadful Braves lineup that ranks at or near the bottom of the league in all major categories against LHP. Atlanta is in the bottom two in wOBA (.280, 29th), ISO (.105, 30th), wRC+ (71, 29th) and wRAA (-37.4, 30th) against southpaws and they strike out at a decent clip (19.9%), giving De La Rosa a very nice shot to hit value at this price tag. He’s only a small favorite as of this writing and we don’t expect that to change much, but we really like his chance at the win and considering he’s going deeper into games as of late, he has legitimate 45-48 FP upside here. It certainly doesn’t hurt that half of the Braves lineup (not including the pitcher) swings from the left side.
Jaime Garcia has a 21.7 K% with a 55.4 GB% over his last four starts
Jaime Garcia has struck out exactly six in each of his last four starts (21.7 K%) with tons of weak ground balls (55.4 GB%, 2.7 Hard-Soft%). The results don’t look as strong (4.26 ERA) because of a fluky 19.0 HR/FB over that span with very little hard contact. Though the Marlins lean heavily RH tonight and nine of Garcia’s 10 HRs have been allowed to RHBs, he has a 60.8 GB% against them this season. Miami has struck out 24.2% of the time with a 94 wRC+ against LHP. Though they have some dangerous RH bats with power, this is a good spot for a marginally priced pitcher with peripherals much better than his ERA recently. For the offense, the red hot Giancarlo Stanton (172 wRC+, .439 ISO vs LHP since 2015) moves back to the cleanup spot, but has seen an increase in cost as he’s once again back to blasting baseballs. Marcell Ozuna (205 wRC+, .382 ISO vs LHP this season) remains in play as well, but leadoff man J.T. Realmuto has just a 31 wRC+ and .100 ISO vs LHP this season.
Other tagged players: Giancarlo Stanton, Marcell Ozuna, J.T. Realmuto Bartolo Colon has the lowest SwStr (5.2%) and 2nd highest hard hit rate (37.6%) among qualified starters
Bartolo Colon has the lowest SwStr rate among qualified starters (5.2%) and the 2nd highest rate of hard hit balls (37.6%), but made an All Star team due to a career high 81.7 LOB%. Essentially, he’s excelled at hard hit balls right at defenders. Dangerous things are likely in store for him in the 2nd half and it could start against an improved Philadelphia offense in a tough park, although they are still the worst home offense (68 wRC+, 23.6 Hard%) in baseball. They have improved a bit vs RHP though (85 wRC+) with a few formidable bats at the top of the lineup. Odubel Herrera has a 123 wRC+ career vs RHP and LHBs have a .322 wOBA and 34.3 Hard% vs Colon since last season. RHBs have had a bit less success (.305 wOBA), but Joseph (.225 ISO) and Franco (.216 ISO) have both shown power against same handed pitchers in their career.
Other tagged players: Bartolo Colon, Maikel Franco, Tommy Joseph Yoenis Cespedes OUT of the lineup, Mets striking out 22.7% of the time versus RHP
Hellickson (4.03 SIERA) has had a nice bounce-back season with a 21.3% stikeout rate and 6.2% walk rate. Hellickson had earned a reputation of being extremely volatile throughout his career, but he has actually allowed three earned runs or less in 13 of his 18 starts this season. Citizens Bank Park doesn’t do a lot to help Hellickson with his home run problems (15.8% HR/FB), but the Mets are not a great offense right now. They rank 27th in runs scored over the past month and are below average in wOBA against right-handed pitching. Hellickson is a little too expensive on DraftKings but could be a nice value starting pitching option on FanDuel for $7K. Even with Cespedes out of the lineup, we can target a Mets bat or two with some power upside. Curtis Granderson (119 wRC+, .344 wOBA, .229 ISO vs RHP) and Asdrubal Cabrera (.179 ISO vs RHP) are the top options. Jose Reyes can also be considered batting out of the lead off spot.
Other tagged players: Curtis Granderson, Asdrubal Cabrera, Jose Reyes Carlos Carrasco was down a mph in his last start, but even with fewer Ks, kept the ball on the ground
Carlos Carrasco might be tonight’s top pitcher if he pitches up to his talent, but has struck out just nine of 48 batters over his last two starts with a velocity drop down to an average of just 92.8 mph in his last start (one full mph below his season average) with a 42.9 Hard%. He previously looked like he was ready to take off, striking out 21 of 58 in his previous two starts. The good news is that he’s kept the ball on the ground more than half the time and has a 53.1 GB% on the season to go with a 17.9 K-BB%. Though Minnesota has improved offensively, they still have just a 91 wRC+ vs RHP and players may want at least some exposure to Carrasco with dominant upside, though he’s the highest priced pitcher on DraftKings ($12.9K). With batters from either side having just a .284 wOBA against him since last season, Minnesota bats don’t project for much value tonight.
Michael Pineda has the fifth best SwStr (13.9%) in baseball & 7 of his 12 Home HRs came in 2 of first 3 starts
Michael Pineda allowed five runs in his last start against the White Sox, but stranded just 37.5% of his runners with just 11.8% of batted balls classified as hard hit with 10 of 17 on the ground. He had struck out at least eight in five of his previous six starts and has the fifth best SwStr (13.9%) in the league this season. Twelve of his 15 HRs have come at home this year, but seven of those came in two of his first three starts. He does have the worst matchup on the board tonight though. The Red Sox are the second best offense on the road (112 wRC+) and best vs RHP (119 wRC+). Players could take a shot with the upside here for less than $8K on a pitcher who is likely to be low owned in a terrible spot after he was perceived to have been burned in his last start. This is an interesting spot for Pineda who continues to pitch well since the beginning of June. David Ortiz (206 wRC+, .397 ISO vs RHP this season) is still one of tonight’s top bats facing the short RF porch. He does have a 99 mph a EV on 10 batted balls against Pineda, but just one HR and 5 Ks in 21 PAs. Jackie Bradley Jr (156 wRC+, .297 ISO vs RHP this season) and Mookie Betts (134 wRC+, .219 ISO vs RHP this season) are the other strong bats against RHP here, but this is an expensive lineup with a marginal projection (4.27 runs) tonight.
As reported by: Baseball Savant Other tagged players: David Ortiz, Jackie Bradley, Mookie Betts Nationals look to take advantage of Francisco Liriano and his league-high 13.5% BB%
Liriano (5.01 SIERA, 7.0% K-BB%) is in the midst of his worst season as a member of the Pirates. He has posted his lowest K%, highest BB%, lowest SwStr% (10.3%), and is surrendering a career-high 33.9% Hard% at this point in the season. All the warning signs are there to avoid rostering Liriano at all costs until he shows any flash of resemblance of his former self. Piling on to the struggles of Liriano, is the difficult matchup the Nationals present as a team (118 wRC+, .352 wOBA, .219 ISO vs LHP). We can realistically look to target any Nationals right-handed batters as viable options tonight. Jayson Werth (201 wRC+, .475 wOBA, .275 ISO vs LHP) has been a lefty-masher throughout his career and gets the second spot in the order. Trea Turner is a great cost-saving option at the 2B and/or SS position on this slate as he carries a cheap price tag on both sites and will bat lead off. Danny Espinosa (144 wRC+, .390 wOBA, .362 ISO vs LHP) is a little pricey given his lineup spot but could make for a contrarian tournament play. Don’t be afraid to include Bryce Harper and Daniel Murphy in any Nationals stack even with the LvL matchups.
Other tagged players: Trea Turner, Danny Espinosa, Bryce Harper, Daniel Murphy, Francisco Liriano Kennedy has struck out 29 of last 71 batters, but has allowed 17 HRs on the road
Ian Kennedy has struck out 29 of his last 71 batters and faces a decent lineup with a 111 wRC+ at home, but a more marginal 102 wRC+ and 15.2 K-BB% vs RHP. A $10K price tag on DraftKings appears to be too much for a pitcher who has allowed 17 of his 21 HRs in 11 road starts this season, but $8.3K on FanDuel might be at least reasonable for a pitcher with some upside. When batters do make contact, it’s generally hard (37.5%) and in the air (0.7 GB/FB). LHBs (.346 wOBA) have hit him better than RHBs (.325 wOBA) since last season, but not by that much. Miguel Cabrera (156 wRC+, .214 ISO vs RHP since 2015) is the top overall bat at a reasonable $4.1K on DraftKings, while Steven Moya (141 wRC+, .272 ISO vs RHP this season) moves up a spot in the order with Upton out and is probably the top bargain for $3K or less on either site.
Other tagged players: Miguel Cabrera, Ian Kennedy Anthony DeSclafani has struck out 25 of 105 batters with just a 26.7 Hard% over his last four starts
Anthony DeSclafani has just a 26.7 Hard%, striking out 25 of 105 batters with just three walks over his last four starts. He faces the offense with the highest strikeout rate (26.3%) vs RHP. That gives him enough upside to be usable here for $7.2K on FanDuel, though it’s a bit more questionable with a more aggressive $9.6K price tag on DraftKings. LHBs have a .343 wOBA (32.2 Hard%) against him since last season, though Jonathan Villar (106 wRC+ vs RHP since last season) is the only even average LHB in the lineup and has no power at a high cost on either site. RHBs have been more marginal (.297 wOBA, .288 ISO), though Braun (119 wRC+, .189 ISO), Lucroy (139 wRC+, .198 ISO) and Carter (110 wRC+, .270 ISO) have all been above average with some power vs RHP. Lucroy costs just $3K on FanDuel.
Other tagged players: Jonathan Villar, Chris Carter, Jonathan Lucroy, Ryan Braun Gallardo has allowed five of six HRs to LHBs with a 35.9 Hard%
Yovani Gallardo has been terrible this season. LHBs have a .350 wOBA against him since last year, though RHBs have been about average (.308 wOBA). This season, five of his six HRs have been surrendered to LHBs with a 35.9 Hard%, while his ground ball rate has been greatly reduced overall (38.3%). The Rays are not a good offense vs RHP, but do have some LH power and players might want to consider some of those, including Brad Miller (114 wRC+, .204 ISO vs RHP since 2015) as a SS batting 2nd, though he costs $4K on FanDuel. Logan Morrison (100 wRC+, .181 ISO vs RHP) is really just an average hitter, but an affordable bat batting cleanup in a good spot. Corey Dickerson (101 wRC+, .262 ISO vs RHP this season) has retained his power even if his overall line has suffered in his first season outside Coors. He moves up to 6th tonight and may be the top bargain in the lineup for $3.3K or less on either site. Evan Longoria has actually been the top bat for this offense vs RHP this year (129 wRC+, .246 ISO) in a rebound season.
Other tagged players: Logan Morrison, Yovani Gallardo, Brad Miller, Evan Longoria Lucas Harrel has looked decent so far, but has thrown just 36.9% of pitches in the strike zone
Lucas Harrell has struck out 10 of 51 batters, walking just three with just 16.7% of batted balls hit hard in two starts against the Marlins and Cubs. It’s an incredibly small sample size and is preceded by several years of minor league irrelevance with massive walk rates. While his 60.8 F-Strike% is league average, his 36.9 Zone% overall is beyond terrible, meaning his initial success is not expected to last, though it may not blow up immediately against a Colorado offense with an 81 wRC+ and 16.9 K-BB% on the road. He may suffice as a secondary option on the bottom of the board on two pitcher sites, but not much more. While a couple of bats like Arenado (126 wRC+, .306 ISO vs RHP since 2015) and Gonzalez (146 wRC+, .294 ISO vs RHP since 2015) may be useful at more moderate prices on DraftKings, Rockies’ bats generally don’t provide much value on the road.
Other tagged players: Nolan Arenado, Carlos Gonzalez