DFS Alerts
Matt Wisler has the 2nd highest hard hit rate (37.2%) and LHBs have a .382 wOBA against him since 2015
Matt Wisler’s 37.2 Hard% is the 2nd highest mark in the majors. He’s been lucky to have just a 18.9 LD% with a low 10.6 HR/FB likely a product of his home park. Cincinnati is a very power friendly park that could cause some problems for a pitcher with a 0.90 GB/FB. LHBs (.382 wOBA) have hit him much better than RHBs (.279 wOBA) in his career, though both have a hard hit rate above 35% this season. Joey Votto (159 wRC+, .224 ISO vs RHP since 2015) is a top overall bat tonight, while Jay Bruce (124 wRC+, .289 ISO vs RHP this season) profiles strong as well. Adam Duvall (114 wRC+, .312 ISO vs RHP since 2015) should probably be the one RHB players can consider here.
Other tagged players: Jay Bruce, Adam Duvall
Gausman has a 21.6% K-BB% versus LHB, Yankees rolling out six lefties tonight
Gausman (3.78 SIERA) has a 26.1% strikeout rate against lefties this season and he’ll be taking on the lefty-heavy Yankees lineup this evening. The downside of this matchup is that the Yankees do not strikeout a ton (18.8% K% vs LHP), and when lefties make contact against Gausman, it’s hard and in the air (35.8% Hard%, 44.8% FB%). On a slate lacking a ton of viable pitching options, Gausman could make for as good of a play as any though. We shouldn’t go out of our way to target Yankees hitters tonight, but we can definitely consider one or two power bats in hope they get to Gausman a bit. Carlos Beltran (.223 ISO vs RHP) and Brian McCann (.208 ISO vs RHP) would be the best bets to go deep.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Carlos Beltran, Brian McCann
Jon Lester has allowed 13 runs and 5 HRs over his last 4.1 innings (30 batters)
Jon Lester has allowed 13 runs in just 4.1 innings, facing just 30 batters with as many HRs (five) as strikeouts over his last two starts. It really goes back a bit further as he’s allowed nine of his 16 HRs over his last five starts. He’s been such a good pitcher for so long that it seems just a matter of time before he figures it out as the only difference has been harder contact and optimistic players might even look at an opportunity to roster a strong pitcher against an offense with a 24.3 K% vs LHP at a lower price. Players who believe he may have not yet made the necessary adjustments over the break can look at Wilmer Flores (160 wRC+, .287 ISO vs LHP since 2015), who has two HRs in 11 career PAs vs Lester or Yoenis Cespedes (227 wRC+, .327 ISO vs LHP this year) without an extra-base hit in 20 attempts against Lester, but a 94 mph aEV on his last four batted balls against the man he was once traded for. At the bottom of the order, but on the low cost end, which may be necessary tonight, Travis D’arnaud has a 164 wRC+ and .276 ISO vs LHP since last season and Juan Lagares (106 wRC+ vs LHP since 2015) has a 268 wRC+ over the last week. Both are around $3K or less on either site with the Catcher just $2.1K on FanDuel. The Mets do have tonight’s 2nd lowest run projection at just 3.4 runs.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Wilmer Flores, Yoenis Cespedes, Travis d'Arnaud, Juan Lagares Jose Fernandez has struck out at least eight in 10 of his last 13 starts
If there were a DFS All Star game, it would be nice to think Jose Fernandez would have started it (with Kershaw and Syndergaard out). He leads the majors with a 36.6 K% and has at least 8 Ks in 10 of his last 13 starts. He costs a small fortune on either site, but should be worth paying up for, even if it might mean sacrificing Coors tonight, which might even play into lower than normal ownership numbers for him. He has one of the top matchups on the board against the worst home team in baseball (66 wRC+). No Phillies are on our radar tonight. Their 2.86 run projection is a full half run below any other team.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds RHBs .372 wOBA against Nolasco makes Detroit a strong stacking alternative to Coors tonight
The Tigers could be the type of team Ricky Nolasco would really struggle against (.372 wOBA allowed to RHBs since last season) even with his normally strong peripherals. It could get even worse with just a 3.8 K-BB% over his last four starts. Ten of his 15 HRs this year have gone to RHBs. The Tigers are projected for over five and a half runs and make an incredibly interesting pivot from the Coors game in terms of a lower priced stack. While Kinsler (117 wRC+, .198 ISO vs RHP this season), Cabrera (149 wRC+, .247 ISO vs RHP this season) and Castellanos (145 wRC+, .233 ISO vs RHP this season) don’t offer much of a discount, all are still considered strong values with Cabrera projected for 10 points on DK via the BAT today. Justin Upton (112 wRC+, .193 ISO vs RHP since last season) and Jarrod Saltalamacchia (122 wRC+, .268 ISO vs RHP this season) may round out a stack at much lower prices ($2.3K or less on FanDuel).
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Ricky Nolasco, Justin Upton, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Ian Kinsler, Nick Castellanos Realmuto remains in leadoff spot against returning RHP Aron Nola
Aaron Nola took a three start minor league detour after he flopped in five consecutive major league starts and the results weren’t that much better. While he remains a top 10 pitcher in K-BB (19.9%), GB rate (55.1%) and weak contact (24.8%). He’s actually increased the GBs (59.1%) in those five starts, but with just a 12.5 K-BB% and more hard contact (33.8%), likely due to issues with his command (more fat sinkers according to Eno Sarris of fangraphs). LHBs and RHBs have hit him around evenly this year (a wOBA right around .300). J.T. Realmuto gets a rare leadoff assignment against a RHP, but he’s been better against them this year than lefties (124 wRC+). He costs nearly $5K on DraftKings, but a much more affordable $2.9K on FanDuel. Interestingly, both Yelich (151 wRC+, .184 ISO vs RHP this season) and the red hot Stanton (123 wRC+, .261 ISO vs RHP since 2015) are an affordable $3.1K on FanDuel. The BAT projects Stanton for an impressive 13.18 points on FanDuel currently. The best approach may be to tread lightly on either side of this matchup until we see whether or not Nola has made the necessary adjustments.
As reported by: fangraphs Other tagged players: Aaron Nola, Giancarlo Stanton, Christian Yelich Finnegan has allowed 17 HRs to RHBs this year, cheap Braves bats could be of use with expensive pitching
While the Braves bats never rate as particularly strong, they may be of use at low costs tonight against Brandon Finnegan, who has a 12% walk rate and allowed as many HRs as strikeouts in his last start (four each). LHBs and RHBs each have a .327 wOBA against him since last season with RHBs having a higher hit hard rate (36.1%) by over three and a half points. While his 18 HRs have been evenly split home and away, 17 have gone to RHBs this year. Freddie Freeman (150 wRC+, .211 ISO vs LHP this year), while not cheap, is the top bat. Adonis Garcia (103 wRC+ vs LHP career) may be the value play on DK out of the two spot for $3.3K, while Jeff Francoeur (113 wRC+, .165 ISO vs LHP this season) costs just $2.6K on FanDuel. Leadoff many Gordon Beckham costs around $3.5K on either site, but has a 141 wRC+ and .231 ISO vs LHP this year.
Other tagged players: Adonis Garcia, Freddie Freeman Baez bats leadoff with Zobrist and Heyward OUT vs Matz
While Heyward’s absence isn’t a big surprise against a top lefty, Zobrist is a little more shocking, perhaps giving Steven Matz a bit more of an edge in this matchup. While he’s allowed hard contact on 45% of batted balls in each of his last three starts (one against the Cubs), he has ticked up his velocity a bit with more sliders being mixed back in over his last two starts as he becomes more confident he won’t further injure his elbow. There is definite risk with recent performance not up to par, but he has retained his 9.6 season SwStr% over the last month and still has a top 15 GB rate (52.8%) at a now slightly reduced price and can be plugged into lineups where players are looking for someone in his price range. For the Cubs, Baez (182 wRC+, .241 ISO career vs LHP) immediately becomes on of the top bargains on FanDuel for just $2.6K ($2K more on DraftKings), while Kris Bryant (169 wRC+, .336 ISO vs LHP) probably needs to be considered against nearly any LHP. Both have a HR against Matz in five PAs each.
As reported by: Baseball Savant Other tagged players: Javier Baez, Kris Bryant Scott Van Slyke can still hit left-handed pitchers and will be batting 4th for the Dodgers
Van Slyke has only one home run this year, but his wRC+ of 148 versus LHPs and ISO of 0.250 indicate that he is very much still capable of getting to southpaws. He is striking out only 18% of the time versus left-handed pitchers, meaning he has a great chance of putting the ball in play today against Robbie Ray. Van Slyke will be batting cleanup today, so DFS players can hope for a few at-bats with runners on base early in the game.
As reported by: FanGraphs and MLB Press
Geovany Soto has been scratched. Jett Bandy will bat 7th for the Halos.
Geovany Soto has been scratched from the Angels lineup and will be replaced by Jett Bandy, who will be batting 7th for the Halos today. Bandy is not a viable replacement, since he has a paltry wRC+ of 39 against right-handed pitching this year.
As reported by: Angels on Twitter Smolinski does not always hit, but when he does, he does it against LHPs
Jake Smolinski is batting 7th for the Athletics and should go unnoticed by most DFS players today, but he has proven he can hit LHP. Jake has a wRC+ against LHP of 181 with a ridiculous ISO of 0.315. He is risky because he could get pinch hit for late in the game, but his 10% k rate (0.311 BABIP) against LHP makes him a high floor play in the at-bats he will have today versus a southpaw. Smolinski faces J.A. Happ, an average LHP, in Oakland today.
As reported by: FanGraphs Javier Baez gets to lead off for Chicago today against a struggling Cole Hamels
It is the Cubs, so ownership may be higher than another team may be facing Cole Hamels. Hamels over has last few starts has not been good and is only striking out batters 15% of the time. Javier Baez has a wRC+ of 181 against LHP and will be leading off for the Cubs against Hamels.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Cole Hamels Tommy Pham leading off for the Cards
Pham has been slightly better than average versus lefties, possessing a wRC+ of 111 against LHP, dating back to the beginning of last year. His 32% strike out percentage is a little disconcerting, but his lineup position and respectable 0.158 ISO vs LHPs makes him a viable play versus Adam Conley today.
As reported by: FanGraphs and MLB Press Other tagged players: Adam Conley Anthony Rendon scratched with flu-like symptoms
Trea Turner will enter the lineup and lead off for the Nats today with Harper bumping down to the cleanup position.
As reported by: William Ladson on Twitter No major threats in Roth's weather report
Roth’s report has a little bit of YELLOW and some wind updates for Oakland and San Diego. Check out the full report for details.
As reported by: RotoGrinders MLB Weather