DFS Alerts
Gio Gonzalez has been pounded in his last two starts, but his ERA estimators have improved in June
Gio Gonzalez has been pounded by Milwaukee and San Diego in his last two starts for 11 ERs in 8.1 innings. Control problems have returned with four walks three times in his last six starts. His 15.9 K-BB% is still the second best mark of his career with his estimators slightly better over the last month (3.48 SIERA, 3.20 FIP), even with a much higher ERA (7.16). Cincinnati has just a team 68 wRC+ over the last week with a 15.3 K-BB% vs LHP this season, making Gio an interesting pitching prospect tonight, especially for just $7.4K on DraftKings. There’s little interest in moderately priced Cincinnati bats on DraftKings, though Adam Duvall (101 wRC+, .197 ISO vs LHP since 2015), Zack Cozart (126 wRC+, .259 ISO vs LHP since 2015) and Eugenio Suarez (136 wRC+, .231 ISO vs LHP since 2015) all cost $3.2K or less on FanDuel against a pitcher who has allowed a .325 wOBA to RHBs since last season.
Other tagged players: Eugenio Suarez, Zack Cozart, Adam Duvall
Kevin Roth's MLB weather forecast has been updated. Downgrading risk from morning outlook
The only spots with any weather concern tonight are going to be in MIA@ATL and KC@STL. Kevin can’t rule a delay mid-game in either spot but concern is relatively low overall. Read Kevin’s full report on our Weather Page, linked below, and follow him on Twitter (@KevinRothWx) for further updates.
As reported by: RotoGrinders MLB Weather Page
Bumgarner has a career high 28.1 K%, but has allowed 42% hard contact with a HR each of last four games
Madison Bumgarner allowed three ERs in his last start for the first time since his third start of the season. His 28.1 K% is the highest mark of his career with an increase in SwStr% over the last month. He is tonight’s top overall pitcher most likely, though at a price $12K or above that might not make him an incredible bargain against a red hot offense (142 wRC+ last seven days) that rarely strikes out (18.3% vs LHP). He’s allowed a HR in four straight games (three at home) with a 42.0 Hard%, so while players should use him if they have the cap space, contrarian players might even want to consider a couple of cheap bats. Danny Valencia (220 wRC+, .353 ISO vs LHP this season) might be interesting on both sites at $3.2K or less and Marcus Semien (152 wRC+, .295 ISO vs LHP this season) bats 2nd for $2.5K on FanDuel.
Other tagged players: Danny Valencia, Marcus Semien Indians seeking 13th straight win, have a 142 wRC+, .383 wOBA, .241 ISO over the last 14 days
R.A. Dickey is always a pitcher we can target because when the knuckle ball is off, he’s really bad. Dickey has also really struggled against LHBs this season (5.20 xFIP, .365 wOBA, 11.4% BB%). This makes the Indians lefties elite targets on this slate. As great of options as they are, this is a stack or fade situation due to the variance of Dickey’s performances and the variance of the knuckle ball from start-to-start. Carlos Santana (135 wRC+, .374 wOBA, 275 ISO vs RHP) is the must play in any stack batting lead off and has ideal power upside. Francisco Lindor (124 wRC+, .358 wOBA, .172 ISO vs RHP) and Jason Kipnis (116 wRC+, .347 wOBA, .205 ISO vs RHP) are other strong options here batting towards the top of the Indians lineup. Tyler Naquin (162 wRC+, .414 wOBA, .257 ISO vs RHP) makes for a great tournament-only option solely due to his spot in order.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Francisco Lindor, Jason Kipnis, Tyler Naquin, R.A. Dickey Brandon Moss has four HRs in 21 PAs against Chris Young and a .408 ISO vs RHP this year
Chris Young has allowed 21 HRs in 53.2 innings, 14 of them to LHBs this season. He has actually handled RHBs well since last season (.257 wOBA), which may explain the absences of Molina and Piscotty tonight, but LHBs have torched him for a .383 wOBA and 39.9 Hard%. To make matters worse, Kendrys Morales will be roaming the large OF tonight in an NL park. Perhaps the Royals don’t expect many batted balls to actually remain in the yard. Heavy exposure to as many LHBs as possible is recommended tonight. Chris Carpenter (162 wRC+, .271 ISO vs RHP since 2015) is tonight’s top bat with a 225 wRC+ and 50 Hard% over the last week. Kolten Wong (103 wRC+ vs RHP since 2015) bats 2nd for around $3K on either site. Brandon Moss (176 wRC+, .408 ISO vs RHP this season) has four HRs in 21 career plate appearances against Young with a 100 mph aEV in three batted balls since last season. Even Garcia (128 wRC+ vs RHP since 2015) and Pena (91 wRC+ vs RHP since 2015) offer something at very low costs (minimum price on FanDuel) tonight.
As reported by: Baseball Savant Other tagged players: Matt Carpenter, Kolten Wong, Chris Young, Greg Garcia, Brayan Pena Carlos Carrasco has a 12.3 SwStr% and 54.1 GB% in June
Carlos Carrasco most recently shut out Detroit on four hits, striking out seven of 32 batters with just one walk. He’s had a fairly strong June after one rough start since returning from the DL with a 12.3 SwStr% and 54.1 GB% this month that suggests he may be close returning to form. He has a tough matchup in Toronto tonight (108 wRC+ at home, 105 wRC+ vs RHP), but has the potential to be one of tonight’s top pitcher at a high, but probably still affordable cost above $10K. RHBs have just a .285 wOBA and 27 Hard% since last season against him, so players may want to limit Toronto exposure, though Donaldson (148 wRC+, .265 ISO vs RHP since 2015) and Encarnacion (145 wRC+, .278 ISO vs RHP since 2015) are looking at slight reductions from normal prices, now under $4.5K on either site. Both of them plus Devon Travis (138 wRC+, .211 ISO vs RHP career) have mashed to a wRC+ above 200 over the last week, but they have been the only three above average hitters in tonight’s lineup over this span.
Other tagged players: Devon Travis, Edwin Encarnacion, Josh Donaldson Matz looks to overcome bone spur in his elbow versus Cubs
This matchup could honestly go either way. This makes Matz (3.39 SIERA, 18.4% K-BB%) a great tournament play because the potential for a big game is there. Not only will most want to avoid Matz in a tough matchup against the Cubs, but there has been news swirling about the bone spur Matz has in his pitching elbow and whether or not he will opt for season-ending surgery. The funny thing about this is that Matz has been pitching with this bone spur for almost two months and has pitched well in most starts. Matz was tagged for 6 ER in his last start but was just extremely unlucky (.400 BABIP) and didn’t pitch all that bad. If not comfortable taking a chance on Matz in tournaments, the primary Cubs hitting options are Ben Zobrist (145 wRC+, .389 wOBA, .173 ISO vs LHP) and Kris Bryant (144 wRC+, .389 wOBA, .303 ISO vs LHP). Javier Baez (149 wRC+, .396 wOBA, .196 ISO vs LHP) and Anthony Rizzo (122 wRC+, .355 wOBA, .258 ISO vs LHP) are also solid options to consider and should go lower owned.
As reported by: SNY Other tagged players: Ben Zobrist, Kris Bryant, Javier Baez, Anthony Rizzo Gordon bats leadoff against pitcher with the lowest SwStr (5.3%) among qualfiers this year
Mike Leake has the lowest SwStr (5.3%) among qualified pitchers this year and it’s dropped even further over the last month (4.7%). He has allowed 14 HRs this season with a 35.6% hard contact rate, but generally keeps most other contact on the ground (51.3%) in a pitcher’s park in St Louis. Alex Gordon (108 wRC+, .164 ISO vs RHP since 2015) becomes interesting in the leadoff spot for around $3K against a pitcher who has allowed LHBs a .316 wOBA (31.0 Hard%) since last season. He’s been better against RHBs though (.287 wOBA). Kendrys Morales (122 wRC+, .212 ISO vs RHP since 2015) and Eric Hosmer (140 wRC+, .183 ISO vs RHP since 2015) are additional options here, though Morales (297 wRC+, 52.4 Hard% last seven days) seems to be the most affordable on DraftKings ($3.9K) of those two.
Other tagged players: Mike Leake, Kendrys Morales, Eric Hosmer We're "Finding Nimmo" at the top of the Mets lineup tonight
John Lackey is coming off a couple of rough starts, walking three in each and allowing 10 ERs (three HRs) over 10.1 IP, but he’s still missing bats at a career high rate (26.4 K%) and should be considered against a limping NY Mets lineup tonight without Curtis Granderson again in a negative run environment. Lackey has dominated RHBs (.266 wOBA since last season) potentially taking Cespedes (140 wRC+, .259 ISO vs RHP since 2015) off the board tonight as he has just a 76 wRC+ and 29.4 Hard% over the last week. LHBs have a .319 wOBA against Lackey since last year with a 31.1 Hard% though, so we may want to consider a few if not using Lackey. New leadoff man Brandon Nimmo has a minimum cost on both sites, potentially making him a great value. He has a great eye and Lackey’s control has been lacking (pun not intended that time) lately. Neil Walker (110 wRC+, .172 ISO vs RHP since 2015) gains some value in the 2nd spot. James Loney (113 wRC+, .163 ISO vs RHP this season) bats cleanup for less than $3K and has actually been one of the Mets’ best bats lately (150 wRC+, 40 Hard% last seven days).
Other tagged players: Brandon Nimmo, Neil Walker, James Loney, Yoenis Cespedes Jake Odorizzi has a 5.05 xFIP, .346 wOBA versus RHBs
Odorizzi is surprisingly much better against left handed batters than right handed batters this season and throughout his career. The root of his struggles can be traced directly to a high 43.3% FB% and a substantial 35.9% Hard% allowed. This combination could be trouble against the righty-heavy, power-filled lineup. Luckily for Odorizzi, this contest will take place at home in Tropicana Field which could limit the Tigers power potential slightly. The Tigers still have plenty of bats we can target for reasonable prices despite the park downgrade. Miguel Cabrera (168 wRC+, .426 wOBA, .284 ISO vs RHP) is the top Tigers option as he is usually. Nick Castellanos (135 wRC+, .377 wOBA, .202 ISO vs RHP) and Victor Martinez (131 wRC+, .371 wOBA, .205 ISO vs RHP) would be the second tier targets. Ian Kinsler (112 wRC+, .343 wOBA, .192 ISO vs RHP) is much better against lefties but is still a great option due to his position scarcity and lineup position. Steven Moya (152 wRC+, .402 WOBA, .322 ISO vs RHP) is a nice value for his price even though Odorizzi tends to be tougher on LHBs.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Nick Castellanos, Victor Martinez, Ian Kinsler, Steven Moya, Jake Odorizzi Bryce Harper gets a night off against a lefty tonight
Brandon Finnegan (.249 BABIP) has thrown a couple of decent games over the last month, but is still mixing in some stinkers and walking too many batters (5.8 K-BB%). The Nationals are a strong team against LHP.(114 wRC+, 15.8 HR/FB). LHBs (.335 wOBA, 33.9 Hard% since 2015) have actually hit him harder than RHBs (.303 wOBA, 34.6 Hard%) since last season, but we wouldn’t expect Dusty to understand that. That makes Daniel Murphy (125 wRC+, .170 ISO vs LHP this season) fairly interesting for $3.8K on DraftKings, though the same price basically on FanDuel. Jayson Werth (153 wRC+, .287 ISO vs LHP since 2015) is the strongest play here for about $4K on either site. Both would seem to have more value on DraftKings, but Anthony Rendon (120 wRC+, .093 ISO vs LHP since 2015) batting 5th and possibly Danny Espinosa at SS (111 wRC+, .216 ISO vs LHP since 2015) hold more value on FanDuel just above $3K each. Zimmerman and Ramos have a below average wRC+, but ISO above .200 vs LHP this season.
Other tagged players: Daniel Murphy, Anthony Rendon, Danny Espinosa, Ryan Zimmerman, Wilson Ramos, Brandon Finnegan Wei-Yin Chen is allowing a ton of hard contact (37.1%), but has a great matchup in Atlanta (64 wRC+ vs LHP)
Wei-Yin Chen has been terrible, but still has a respectable 14.5 BB% on the season with a lot of hard contact (37.1%) with a career high 15.1 HR/FB after leaving Baltimore for a better park. The only reason he remains on the board is a matchup with the 2nd worst offense vs LHP (64 wRC+, 15.9 K-BB%, 5.3 HR/FB) tonight and the worst offense at home (72 wRC+, 6.5 HR/FB). That should neutralize some of the hard contact and could make him worthwhile for just under $7K on DraftKings. With a .346 wOBA and 33.2 Hard% against, RHBs for the Braves may have some value tonight, particularly at lower prices on FanDuel. Jeff Francoeur (119 wRC+, .151 ISO vs LHP this season) may work on both sites for $3K or less. Adonis Garcia has not hit LHP well this season (43 wRC+, .033 ISO), but has since last season (102 wRC+, .168 ISO) and costs just $2.6K on FanDuel. Tyler Flowers (89 wRC+ vs LHP since 2015) and Chase D’arnaud (98 wRC+ vs LHP since 2015) could be interesting punts at Catcher and Second Base tonight.
Other tagged players: Adonis Garcia, Chase d'Arnaud, Jeff Francoeur, Tyler Flowers Logan Morrison has three HRs (also 8 Ks) in 21 plate appearances vs Zimmermann
There probably shouldn’t be a lot of interest either way in this one. Jordan Zimmermann has come back to the pack hard with a 39.7 LOB% in June. He still has a well below average 15.5 K%, though his SwStr is up to 8.1% over the last month. He’s been allowing some more hard contact (33.3% in June), but still not many HRs (5.9 HR/FB in June, 7.3 HR/FB this season). The Rays have a 25.1 K% vs RHP, but will it be enough to pay off a cost above $8K for Zimmermann? For the Rays, Corey Dickerson (114 wRC+, .280 ISO vs RHP since 2015) and Brandon Guyer (92 wRC+ vs RHP since 2015) are back in the middle of the order, dropping Oswaldo Arcia (90 wRC+, .188 ISO vs RHP career) to 8th. Dickerson may be interesting for $3.4K on DraftKings. The smoking Brad Miller (117 wRC+, .193 ISO vs RHP since 2015, 198 wRC+ over the last week) is a viable SS option tonight, batting 2nd. Logan Morrison is an average bat against RHP batting cleanup (101 wRC+, .180 ISO), but has has three HRs in 21 career opportunities against Zimmermann (although eight Ks as well).
As reported by: Baseball Savant Other tagged players: Jordan Zimmermann, Brad Miller, Corey Dickerson, Brandon Guyer, Oswaldo Arcia Mike Foltynewicz has an 87.1 LOB% this season, LHBs have a .405 wOBA against him since last year
Mike Foltynewicz returns from a month long DL stint due to an elbow issue, striking out five of 16 batters in his lone rehab outing last week. An 87.1 LOB% has his 3.51 ERA more than half a run below his estimators, which put him as nearly a league average pitcher just over four with a much higher FIP (4.72) due to HR issues (16.7 HR/FB). Batters from both sides have hit him fairly well (RHBs .342 wOBA, 32 Hard%) since last year, but lefties, in particular, have hammered him (.405 wOBA, 31.1 Hard%). Derek Dietrich (139 wRC+, .193 ISO vs RHP since 2015) finally hits leadoff in a good spot. He’s probably the top play here for less than $4K on DK, $3K on FD. Justin Bour (131 wRC+, .260 ISO vs RHP since 2015) doesn’t have an ideal spot, batting 6th, and costs about $800 more on either site, but is a much bigger power threat. Both hitters have a wRC+ above 175 over the last week. Christian Yelich (132 wRC+, .151 ISO vs RHP since 2015) and Giancarlo Stanton (120 wRC+, .251 ISO vs RHP since 2015), who has been hot recently (179 wRC+, 56.3 Hard% last seven days) could also see some success here at similar prices, though Stanton is a bit more expensive on FanDuel ($4.2K).
Other tagged players: Justin Bour, Giancarlo Stanton, Christian Yelich, Mike Foltynewicz White Sox should feast off Tommy Milone today
The White Sox face Tommy Milone today and Vegas has given them a run total of over five, the highest of all the early games. Milone has struggled against both sides of the plate thus far this season and over his career has been below average, especially against RH bats. Timothy Anderson’s price has risen but he’s still an excellent option at the top of the White Sox lineup. The usual RH power bats of Jose Abreu and Todd Frazier are also top options with Brett Lawrie, Dioner Navarro, and Avisail Garcia secondary options in the 5 thru 7 spots of the lineup. Carlos Rodon is a high-risk, high-reward option at SP for the White Sox. He has the upside and is the biggest favorite of the day facing a Twins offense that is below average. Rodon does struggle against RH bats (.356 wOBA allowed, however, and the top of the Twins lineup is filled with hitters that give LHP troubles. A contrarian stack of Eduardo Nunez (.405 wOBA, .290 ISO), Eduardo Escobar (.355 wOBA, .171 ISO), Robbie Grossman (.435 wOBA, .234 ISO), and Brian Dozier (.458 wOBA, .339 ISO) is certainly an excellent play. Trevor Plouffe and Kurt Suzuki are also worth consideration.
As reported by: Mike Berardino on Twitter Other tagged players: Carlos Rodon, Brian Dozier