DFS Alerts
Kenta Maeda top SP option for small afternoon slate
It should be a low scoring game today in Milwaukee as we get a match up with the best SP on the early slate in Kenta Maeda and a struggling offense in the Dodgers going against Zach Davies who has turned things around and looked very good of late. Vegas has given the game a run total of just eight, easily the lowest of the three early games. Davies is intriguing as he has given up just 6 runs over 33 IP in his last five starts while striking out 36. One of those games was a seven inning, one run, six strikeout gem against the Dodgers. Given the woes of the Dodgers lineup he definitely has value as a GPP SP option. If you are going to play Dodgers bats go with the lefties as Davies has allowed a .331 wOBA to them this season. Chase Utley, Corey Seager, and Adrian Gonzalez are thus the bats you want to target. Maeda has been excellent in his debut season allowing a wOBA of <.275 to both sides of the plate. He does exhibit some control problems against LH bats (12.1% BB rate) but you’ll probably still want to avoid the Brewers bats.
As reported by: Los Angeles Dodgers official Twitter feed Other tagged players: Zach Davies, Corey Seager
Rangers look to bounce back from late inning collapse
The Rangers blew a 7-2 lead after 7 innings last night against the Yankees and will look to recover from that disaster today when they take on the Yankees in a early afternoon game. A.J. Griffin starts for the visiting Rangers and Michael Pineda will get the nod for the Yankees. Griffin has been excellent in limited time this year allowing a sub .290 wOBA to both sides of the plate. Despite that Vegas still likes the Yankees side of things as they have given them a run projection of just over 4 3/4 runs. Griffin has some value as a sleeper SP in GPP’s given the Yankees struggles at the plate of late but at the same time there is also merit in stacking the home team if you’re playing multiple lineups. The lefty bats of Jacoby Ellsbury, Brett Gardner, and Brian McCann are the top options and Mark Texeira has shown signs of life as late and is also worth considering if stacking the Yankees. Some cheaper, but higher risk options, at the bottom of the lineup include Chase Headley, Didi Gregorious, and the minimum priced Ronald Torreyes. Pineda, on the other hand, will bring his very inconsistent game against the Rangers. He’s allowed a .355+ wOBA to both sides of the plate this season but also exhibits high upside with 8+ strikeouts in 4 of his last 5 games. The entire Rangers line up is worth considering given the propensity for blowing up that Pineda has shown this season with Shin-Soo Choo, Ian Desmond, and Nomar Mazara the top options. Adrian Beltre, Rougned Odor, and Jurickson Profar are also good secondary/stacking options.
As reported by: John Blake on Twitter Other tagged players: Michael Pineda, Ian Desmond, Brian McCann Khris Davis scratched Wednesday night
Davis has been scratched from the lineup with a left shoulder contusion. Davis will be replaced in the lineup by Billy Burns, who will bat ninth.
Other tagged players: Billy Burns
Sean Manaea set to make return from DL, allowing .377 wOBA, 5.14 xFIP to RHB
Manaea (4.54 SIERA) has actually pitched better than his 6.02 ERA would indicate. His main issues have been a high 11.1% BB% and massive struggles against right handed batters. As bad as Manaea has been against RHB, he’s been the exact opposite against LHB. This is enough for us to avoid the Giants lefties entirely outside of maybe Brandon Belt (152 wRC+, .389 wOBA, .256 ISO vs LHP). We can look to Buster Posey (139 wRC+, .370 wOBA, .178 ISO vs LHP) as great catcher pivot in tournaments. Mac Williamson (122 wRC+, .345 wOBA, 240 ISO vs LHP) is also a decent outfield punt option batting seventh.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Mac Williamson, Sean Manaea, Brandon Belt Wade Miley set to return from DL, Jordy Mercer leads off
Miley (4.54 SIERA, 10.5% K-BB%) is making his first start since being activated from the disabled list. Miley struggled mightily before his DL stint and gets a tough matchup against the Pirates (109 wRC+, .330 wOBA, .155 ISO vs LHP) in his return. Jordy Mercer (159 wRC+, .404 wOBA, .214 ISO vs LHP) gets the bump up to the lead off spot per usual against a lefty and makes for a nice cash game and tournament play. David Freese (161 wRC+, .408 wOBA, .208 ISO vs LHP), Sean Rodriguez (144 wRC+, .382 wOBA, .182 ISO vs LHP), and Jung Ho Kang (128 wRC+, .358 wOBA, .310 ISO vs LHP) are integral parts of any Pirates stack in tournaments. Andrew McCutchen (144 wRC+, .382 wOBA, .304 ISO the last 7 days) has shown signs of life recently and is too cheap at $3.9K on DraftKings.
Other tagged players: David Freese, Sean Rodriguez, Jung-Ho Kang, Andrew McCutchen, Wade Miley Athletics implied run total has increased to 4.4 runs
Jake Peavy has actually pitched much better over the past month than he did to begin the season. The Athletics are far from offensive juggernauts (87 wRC+, .299 wOBA, .137 ISO vs RHP), however, and Peavy is prone to getting shelled anytime he takes the mound. We could really target either side of this matchup and feel fairly comfortable, but we’ll give the slight edge the to the Athletics offense in this one. Josh Reddick (159 wRC+, .405 wOBA, .186 ISO vs RHP) returned to the lineup yesterday and is the Athletics best hitter. Danny Valencia (123 wRC+, .352 wOBA, .160 ISO vs RHP) and Khris Davis (107 wRC+, .330 wOBA, .237 ISO vs RHP) make for nice tournament plays with some HR upside. We can even consider Stephen Vogt (107 wRC+, .330 wOBA, .162 ISO vs RHP) as a reasonable priced catcher play on all sites.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Danny Valencia, Khris Davis, Stephen Vogt, Jake Peavy Aledmys Diaz OUT of the lineup, Cardinals have a 119 wRC+, .349 wOBA, .203 ISO versus RHP
Edinson Volquez is coming off a horrendous start where he went 1.0 IP and gave up 11 ER to the Houston Astros. It doesn’t get any easier for Volquez as he heads to St. Louis to take on a tough Cardinals offense. The Cardinals are one of the top stacks of the night and should be targeted for cash game and tournament exposure. Matt Carpenter (183 wRC+, .442 wOBA, .329 ISO vs RHP) is an elite play and might be top hitter option on the entire slate. Matt Adams (140 wRC+, .379 wOBA, .244 ISO vs RHP) and Matt Holliday (126 wRC+, .358 wOBA, .222 ISO vs RHP) make for good secondary options in this Cardinals lineup. Greg Garcia (215 wRC+, .489 wOBA, .189 ISO vs RHP) could be a decent punt option for near minimum salary on both sites.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Matt Adams, Matt Holliday, Greg Garcia, Edinson Volquez Curtis Granderson scratched from tonight's lineup, replaced by Brandon Nimmo
Granderson left last night’s game with an injury and has been scratched from tonight’s lineup. De Aza moves up to the lead off spot and Brandon Nimmo will bat seventh.
Other tagged players: Alejandro De Aza, Brandon Nimmo Stewart has a 10.37 K/9 in the minors this season, Brewers strikeout at a 26.1% clip versus RHP
We have yet another starting pitcher making his MLB debut in this slate. The minor league pedigree of Stewart makes him an intriguing option tonight along with his generous pricing on all sites. Stewart is a tournament-only play given the uncertainty in starting pitchers making their debuts, but the strikeout upside seems to be there if he can manage to keep his emotions in check. While Stewart is the preferred option in this matchup, it doesn’t mean we can’t target some upside bats from the Brewers lineup if fading Stewart. Jonathan Lucroy (143 wRC+, .391 wOBA, .210 ISO vs RHP) and Ryan Braun (125 wRC+, .365 wOBA, .201 ISO vs RHP) are extremely expensive relative to their respective positions but are the top options. Chris Carter (105 wRC+, .336 wOBA, .260 ISO vs RHP) is always in tournament consideration given his double HR upside.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Jonathan Lucroy, Ryan Braun, Chris Carter Melky Cabrera OUT of the lineup, White Sox have a 125 wRC+, .361 wOBA, .229 ISO the last week
Ricky Nolasco (4.11 SIERA, 19.2% K%, 4,7% BB%) is a control pitcher that consistently manages to outperform his peripherals and rarely ever gets blown up. This isn’t a spot that we ideally want to fully stack up the White Sox. However, it’s definitely a situation that we could look to a few lineup fillers or mini-stacks. Tim Anderson (123 wRC+, .359 wOBA, .235 ISO vs RHP) and Jose Abreu (99 wRC+, .324 wOBA, .176 ISO) are both reasonably priced and make for the best options when targeting the White Sox. Dioner Navarro has been bumped up to fifth spot in the order and definitely can be considered as a punt catcher option
Other tagged players: Jose Abreu, Dioner Navarro, Ricky Nolasco Kevin Roth's MLB weather forecast has been updated
Outside of a few possible isolated pop-up storms early in CLE@ATL, there are no real weather concerns anywhere. Read Kevin’s full report on our Weather Page, linked below, and follow him on Twitter (@KevinRothWx) for further updates.
As reported by: RotoGrinders MLB Weather Page Indians eye 12th straight win, have a 140 wRC+, .380 wOBA, .244 ISO over the last 14 days
We don’t know much about Joel De La Cruz as he is making his major league debut tonight against the Cleveland Indians. The minor league numbers of De La Cruz (17.7% K%, 9.6% BB%, 4.68 ERA) definitely leave a lot to be desired, and he doesn’t seem to have the stuff that will translate to the big leagues. It’s always a little more risky picking on a pitcher making his MLB debut because it’s hard to figure out to what to expect from them, but the Indians seem to be a viable stack option on this slate. Francisco Lindor (128 wRC+, .363 wOBA, .174 ISO vs RHP) and Jason Kipnis (117 wRC+, .348 wOBA, .208 ISO vs RHP) are the clear cut options here batting at the top of the Indians lineup. Lonnie Chisenhall has been raking over the last week (253 wRC+, .548 wOBA, .440 ISO) and bats sixth. Tyler Naquin (159 wRC+, .409 wOBA, .264 ISO vs RHP) makes for a great tournament-only option solely due to his spot in order.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Jason Kipnis, Lonnie Chisenhall, Tyler Naquin, Joel De La Cruz Max Scherzer in a great spot against a banged up Mets team with a 22.7 K% vs. RHP
While it’s not all that easy to roster him alongside any big bats, Max Scherzer is the top overall arm on this slate. Scherzer is a large favorite (between -210 and -230 on most outlets), but the same can also be said for Danny Salazar and Masahiro Tanaka who are available at slightly lower price tags. Still, Scherzer’s strikeout ceiling and win potential give him an absolutely enormous ceiling, so you are playing with fire if you go with a full-on fade. Scherzer allowed five runs and two HRs in his last start, but still struck out ten and has accrued double-digit Ks in four of his last five starts. He has allowed 20 HRs this year, but has the third best strikeout rate (32.7%) and second best SwStr rate (15.1%) in baseball this year. Those numbers are a tick higher over the last month. The Mets are banged up and struggling (Granderson left last night’s game but is in tonight’s lineup) and strike out more than average (22.7% vs RHP) with just a 5.9 HR/FB over the last week. Against a team rolling out James Loney as the clean-up hitter, it doesn’t get much better for the man with two different color eyes.
Yankees take on Nick Martinez, who has walked nearly as many LHBs as he's struck out over his career
Nick Martinez owns the highest SIERA (over the last two years) by a fairly wide margin among pitchers on this slate, and it’s clear he’s an arm we’ll want to pick on any time he takes the hill. He’s somehow managed to walk nearly as many left-handed hitters (69) as he’s struck out (78) over the course of his career, which spans 2+ years. He’s not effective against right-handers either, as he’s allowed a career .360 wOBA and owns an xFIP just under 5.0. The left-handed bats towards the top of the Yankees lineup are elite targets. Jacoby Ellsbury (.340 wOBA, .127 ISO, 13 SBs), Brett Gardner (.363 wOBA, .135 ISO, 11 SBs) and Brian McCann (.325 wOBA, .185 ISO) are playable across all formats. Gardner tends to be a bit cheaper than Ellsbury at several DFS outlets and the upside with those two is very similar, so if you’re choosing between the two, take the savings and apply it elsewhere. Didi Gregorius will hit sixth tonight and he makes plenty of sense as part of a Yankees stack given Martinez’s struggles with lefties. As for the right-handers, Alex Rodriguez and Starlin Castro both own wOBAs under .300, but they are still playable in GPPs given the match-up.
Other tagged players: Jacoby Ellsbury, Brett Gardner, Didi Gregorius Junior Guerra allowed 5 ER to this same Dodgers teams just two weeks ago
There’s not much to say about Guerra other than he’s pretty much an average major league SP. Average major league pitchers will have good games and they’ll have bad games, hence their mediocrity. If Guerra has had one glaring weakness this season, it’s the amount of hard contact he is allowing his opponents (37.7% Hard%). Hard contact and fly balls definitely aren’t a recipe for success in most ballparks, let alone Miller Park. The Dodgers don’t hit RHP particularly well (92 wRC+, .305 wOBA, .149 ISO), but do receive a massive park boost leaving Dodger Stadium. Corey Seager (150 wRC+, .391 wOBA, .236 ISO vs RHP) is the clear option in the Dodgers lineup if targeting this game but is also the most expensive. We can also consider Trayce Thompson (117 wRC+, .343 wOBA, .219 ISO vs RHP) and Justin Turner (114 wRC+, .337 wOBA, .202 ISO vs RHP) for some salary relief and potential HR upside. Adrian Gonzalez (104 wRC+, .323 wOBA, .123 ISO vs RHP) is just too cheap for a clean up hitter in a decent matchup so he could be worth a look as well.
Other tagged players: Trayce Thompson, Justin Turner, Adrian Gonzalez