DFS Alerts
Rangers are tied for 2nd highest run projection (4.8), but have just a team 89 wRC+ vs RHP
Ervin Santana did not strike out more than four batters in any of five June starts and has just a 16.5 K% this season. Texas is tied for the 2nd highest run projection tonight (4.8) in Minnesota, though they have just a team 89 wRC+ and just two above average hitters in the lineup this season against RHP. One of them (Desmond) carries one of the highest price tags on either board ($5.2K, $4K). Nomar Mazara (117 wRC+, .187 ISO vs RHP) would be the other for around $1K cheaper on each site. Interestingly, he is the only one of the top five batters with a wRC+ below 150 over the last week. Shin-Soo Choo has not hit RHP all that well this season (99 wRC+, .100 ISO), but the sample is still small and he still has a 141 wRC+ and .200 ISO since last season. At around $4K on either site, he’s probably the top bat here against a pitcher who has allowed a .336 wOBA to RHBs since last season.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Nomar Mazara, Ervin Santana, Ian Desmond
Gordon leads off, Royals get ballpark upgrade traveling to Citizens Bank Park
Jeremy Hellickson (3.97 SIERA, 15,5% K-BB%) has had a bit of a resurgence this season and is pitching pretty much within his peripherals and advanced stats. Hellickson has been susceptible to being hurt by the home run ball this year (17.8% HR/FB), especially at home. Hellickson is definitely capable of spinning a quality start in this matchup so we may not want to load up on Royals hitters, however, there are still some good plays to target that we can sprinkle throughout our lineups. Eric Hosmer (138 wRC+, .381 wOBA, .167 ISO vs RHP) is reasonably priced and makes for a great cash game and tournament option as he may get overlooked. If deciding to pay up, Salvador Perez (125 wRC+, .361 wOBA, .230 ISO vs RHP) is a great play at a shallow catcher position. Kendrys Morales (347 wRC+, .688 wOBA, .444 ISO last 7 days) has been absolutely raking recently and can be considered if attempting to save salary at first base. Alex Gordon has to also be considered with his cheap price tag and getting the bump up to lead off tonight against Hellickson.
Other tagged players: Eric Hosmer, Salvador Perez, Kendrys Morales, Jeremy Hellickson
Julio Teheran had a 27.6 K% in June, but faced four weak lineups and has a .209 BABIP, 82.9 LOB% this year
Julio Teheran did have a 27.6 K% in June and has gone at least seven innings in four straight, but has faced the limping Mets twice plus the Red and Padres all in great parks over that span. His .209 BABIP and 82.9 LOB% have kept his 2.46 ERA more than a run below his 3.75 SIERA and 4.03 xFIP despite a lot of hard contact (34.6%) in the air (0.91 GB/FB). He would appear to be accurately priced at just under $9K on FanDuel, though a bit high on DraftKings ($11.7K). LHBs do have a .352 wOBA and 34.4 Hard% against him since last season and while the wOBA has improved this season (.280) that all appears BABIP related too (.183), as LHBs have hit him just as hard. Contrarian players can consider leadoff man Derek Dietrch (138 wRC+, .192 ISO vs RHP since 2015) at a great price of $3K or less along with Justin Bour (132 wRC+, .264 ISO vs RHP since 2015) and Christian Yelich (132 wRC+, .151 ISO vs RHP since 2015) bot at reasonable prices around $3.5K on either site.
Other tagged players: Justin Bour, Christian Yelich, Julio Teheran Astros have a team 142 wRC+ over the last week with a 15.5 HR/FB at home and 14.8 HR/FB vs RHP this year
The Astros have a team 142 wRC+ over the last week, a 15.5 HR/FB at home and a 14.8 HR/FB vs RHP. They are tied for tonight’s 2nd highest run projection (4.8). Miguel Gonzalez has his first single digit HR rate this year, but his 9.5 HR/FB almost exactly matches his 9.7 BB%. That’s not good against an offense with a double digit walk rate at home and vs RHP. Both right and left-handed batters have a wOBA above .330 against Gonzalez since last season. The top five in this lineup make for a great stack. All five have a wRC+ above 115 with an ISO of .190 or greater against RHP this season with the exception of Rasmus (106 wRC+, .157 ISO). All five have a wRC+ above 150 over the last week with a hard hit rate above 40% with the exception of Springer (23.8 Hard%). The suddenly hot Luis Valbuena (119 wRC+, .219 ISO vs RHP since last season) would appear to be the value play here, batting 2nd for $4.4K on DK and $3.1K on FanDuel.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Colby Rasmus, George Springer, Miguel Gonzalez Mike Trout has a 360 wRC+ over the last week and Angels strike out just 15.8% vs RHP
Steven Wright has an 2.18 ERA two runs below his 4.48 SIERA and 4.36 xFIP. Knuckleballers can sometimes work around conventional norms, but running a 5.2 HR/FB is usually not one of those things, while a .252 BABIP is questionable as well. They can beat estimators more often than other pitchers, but not by more than two runs. Wright was knocked around in his last start, knocked out in the 5th in Texas, but only three of eight runs were earned. An additional complication is that the Angels strike out a major league low 15.8% vs RHP. Wright is probably going to need to go more than seven innings to cover a $10K price tag tonight. It’s not impossible, but paying up for batted ball outcomes is always more risky. While attacking him doesn’t seem optimal either, Mike Trout (172 wRC+, .287 ISO vs RHP since last season) is on fire (360 wRC+ last seven days) and can probably hit any kind of ball. In six PAs against Wright, he has struck out twice with a walk. One of three batted balls (99.2 mph aEV) left the yard.
As reported by: Baseball Savant Other tagged players: Steven Wright Rays strikeout at a 24.9% clip versus RHP
There are some substantial warning signs of regression in the advanced stats of Michael Fulmer. He has a low .260 BABIP and a really high 86.2% LOB% so far this season to go along with a 4.12 SIERA that is almost a full two runs higher than his ERA. With all that said, Fulmer still has a 11.0% SwStr% and the Rays offer substantial strikeout upside and don’t hit RHP all that well (91 wRC+, .304 wOBA, .181 ISO) making Fulmer a decent tournament play. There are much better places to find offense on this slate but we can perhaps target a power bat from the Rays lineup. If deciding to go that route, Evan Longoria (132 wRC+, .364 wOBA, .268 ISO vs RHP) and Corey Dickerson (.274 ISO vs RHP) are the most likely to put one in the seats against Fulmer.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Evan Longoria, Corey Dickerson Jacob deGrom has gone at least six innings with six strikeouts in six straight starts
The Cubs have an 11.2 BB% and 14.2 HR/FB vs RHP. Neither of these are problems deGrom has this year (5.8 BB%, 9.1 HR/FB) or in his career. He’s been pitching better lately, going at least six innings with six strikeouts in six straight starts with three ERs or less too and although it’s difficult to say he’s competing at last year’s level, most of his numbers are now equivalent to his rookie year in 2014, which was quite strong as well, including a 17.7 K-BB%. There are some weather concerns in the area, so be sure to check Kevin’s late update, but if this game goes off, deGrom may be tonight’s top overall pitcher against an offense that will strike out (22.5% vs RHP). This is probably not the pitcher players should look to attack offensively in a pitcher’s park with a bottom five run projection tonight (3.57).
As reported by: Rotogrinders Weather Page Smyly has allowed 12 HRs last seven starts, but had a 25.8 K% in June
Drew Smyly allowed at least four runs in four of five June starts and has allowed a HR in seven straight starts (12 total over that span). This is a risk, but his peripherals remain strong (25.8 K% in June) and this will be only his 3rd home start since May 4th. Maybe not for the risk averse, but Smyly has one of the highest upsides of any pitcher tonight in a spot that’s not that bad for less than $9K. Detroit runs out an all RH lineup, but is only really average against LHPs (103 wRC+, 21.1 K%). RHBs have a .332 wOBA and 32.8 Hard% vs Smyly since last year, but the Tigers only really have four above average hitters againts LHPs in this lineup. Victor Martinez and Ian Kinsler both have a 150 wRC+ and .200 ISO this season at marginal costs on both sites. Cameron Maybin has a 183 wRC+, but with little power (.130 ISO) against lefties this year. James McCann has a 117 wRC+, but with a .273 ISO and two HRs against Smyly in five career PAs.
Other tagged players: Ian Kinsler, Victor Martinez, Cameron Maybin, James McCann Boston is projected to score a slate high 6.03 runs against Chacin
Jhoulys Chacin had an 8.59 ERA and 7.02 SIERA in June with just a 4.0 SwStr%. Boston has a slate high 6.03 run projection by more than a run. Hanley Ramirez is out tonight, but the entire top seven aside from Holt have a wRC+ of 120 or better against RHP this season. LHBs have a .348 wOBA and 36.4 Hard% against Chacin since last season, while RHBs have been more average. This makes David Ortiz (175 wRC+, .342 ISO vs RHP since 2015) tonight’s top overall bat and probably still a decent value at a high price. Jackie Bradley Jr. (139 wRC+, .290 ISO vs RHP since 2015) looks very strong for $3.5K on FanDuel in the 5th spot. This entire lineup with the possible exception of Vazquez (26 wRC+ vs RHP career) can be used if affordable, though the two strongest bats were mentioned and only Ortiz has a wRC+ above 100 over the last week.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Jackie Bradley, Brock Holt, Jhoulys Chacin, Christian Vazquez Phillies are the worst home offense in baseball (58 wRC+, 15.9 K-BB%), but have several hot bats
Ian Kennedy struck out 11 of 24 Astros in his best start this year last time out. His 15.2 K-BB% is solid, but he’s on pace for a career high in HRs with 19 already (15.8 HR/FB) and the second highest fly ball rate in baseball (49.4%). The Phillies have been hitting the ball well lately. All seven batters with more than 10 PAs over the last week in tonight’s lineup have a wRC+ at 110 or higher. They are still the worst home offense in baseball this season (58 wRC+, 15.9 K-BB%, 8.7 HR/FB, 22.9 Hard%). Kennedy is one of a number of marginally useful pitchers tonight. He should be able to generate some strikeouts, but could get himself in trouble in a small park. If not using Kennedy and otherwise paying up for pitching, the entire Philadelphia lineup can be interesting at low prices. Both lefties and righties have a wOBA above .320 with a hard hit rate above 35% against Kennedy since last season. Only Odubel Herrera (123 wRC+ vs RHP career) and Maikel Franco (113 wRC+, .200 ISO vs RHP career) are much above $3K on either site and the latter has a 52.6 Hard% to go along with a 172 wRC+ over the last week. The top value may be new 3rd place hitter Cody Asche (93 wRC+, .169 ISO vs RHP since 2015) for less than $3K on either site with a 130 wRC+ and 46.7 Hard% over the last week.
Other tagged players: Odubel Herrera, Cody Asche, Ian Kennedy Indians go for 14th straight against favored Blue Jays
Cleveland might have won 13 games in a row but Vegas doesn’t seem to care as they have listed the home team Blue Jays as slight (-120) favorites in a game projected to score nine runs. Josh Tomlin will pitch for the visiting Indians while Marcus Stroman gets the nod for Toronto. This is the only afternoon game today so there aren’t many opportunities to use players from this game in DFS – if you are partaking in one of the all day slates here’s what you need to know. Tomlin allows a .310 wOBA to LH bats and a .312 wOBA to RH bats in 2016. He doesn’t strike out many batters (56K’s in 89 1/3 IP) and is prone to the long ball (18 HR allowed in those same 89 1/3 IP). Definitely not a good thing when pitching against Toronto at their park. Josh Donaldson and Edwin Encarnacion, as usual, are the top targets on Toronto with Ezequiel Carrera and Michael Saunders not too far behind. Russell Martin, Troy Tulowitzki, and Justin Smoak are secondary options. Marcus Stroman has struggled pitching for Toronto this year with a .354 wOBA allowed to LH bats and a .320 wOBA allowed to RH bats. He’s only struck out 71 in over 100 innings of work. The six LH bats in the Indians line up are the ones to utilize here with the top three in the order (Carlos Santana, Jason Kipnis, and Francisco Lindor) your top options. Jose Ramirez, Lonnie Chisenhall, Tyler Naquin, and RH Mike Napoli batting clean up are secondary options. There are much better pitching options later in the day so look elsewhere in that department.
As reported by: Cleveland Indians official Twitter feed Other tagged players: Edwin Encarnacion, Jason Kipnis, Francisco Lindor
Orioles strikeout at a 22.2% clip versus RHP
Walker (3.82 SIERA, 22.0% K%) left his last start with a flare-up of a foot injury that has been plaguing him for a good portion of the season. Walker is a tournament-only option tonight due to the aforementioned foot injury and his propensity for getting blown up by the home run ball (17.3% HR/FB). Walker also takes on a red-hot Orioles offense (167 wRC+, .427 wOBA, .258 ISO last 7 days) as they look to keep the offense flowing on their West Coast swing. While the Orioles present a tough matchup, Walker is able to shut down any offense when he’s on and there is strikeouts to be had in this Orioles lineup. If not comfortable taking the risk on Walker, we should look to the Orioles power bats as potential targets. Manny Machado (154 wRC+, .407 wOBA, .278 ISO vs RHP) and Chris Davis (131 wRC+, .373 wOBA, .275 ISO vs RHP) offer the most home run upside in this matchup. Mark Trumbo (141 wRC+, .388 wOBA, .247 ISO vs RHP) makes for a nice secondary target as he can knock one out of any park.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Manny Machado, Chris Davis, Mark Trumbo Dillon Overton had a 3.9% K-BB% in his first MLB start
We don’t have a lot of information to go on with Overton (5.60 SIERA) with him only making one career MLB start. Based on his peripherals and minor league statistics, he looks to be an average major league LHP. This is enough for us to target some Giants righty bats in tournaments, including the lefty-swinging, Brandon Belt (153 wRC+, .390 wOBA, .259 ISO vs LHP). We can also look to Buster Posey (147 wRC+, .382 wOBA, .184 ISO vs LHP) as great catcher pivot in tournaments. Mac Williamson (122 wRC+, .345 wOBA, 231 ISO vs LHP) is also a great outfield punt option getting the bump up to sixth in the batting order. Perhaps even Angel Pagan is an option batting in the two-hole for the Giants tonight.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Brandon Belt, Mac Williamson, Angel Pagan, Dillon Overton Hamilton added to Reds lineup
Billy Hamilton has been added to the Reds lineup, replacing Jose Peraza in the 7th spot. This should have little daily fantasy impact.
As reported by: Reds Twitter Chris Tillman has a 43.0% FB% versus LHBs, allowing .341 WOBA
Tillman has struggled in his last two starts, allowing 10 ER in 10.0 IP. Tillman is an extreme fly ball pitcher, especially against lefties, and takes on the powerful Mariners lineup tonight. The Mariners are only implied to score 3.9 runs tonight, which is a little concerning. While a full Mariners stack may not be optimal, targeting a couple Mariner power bats could be an interesting strategy. Robinson Cano (180 wRC+, .436 wOBA, .313 ISO) has absolutely crushed RHP this season making him the top target in the Mariners lineup. We should look to pair him with Kyle Seager (161 wRC+, .407 wOBA, .277 ISO vs RHP) and/or Dae-Ho Lee (123 wRC+, .351 wOBA, .194 ISO vs RHP) as they both have decent power potential.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Kyle Seager, Dae-Ho Lee, Chris Tillman