DFS Alerts

Kevin Roth has posted the weather and the "concerns are low"

There is nto much to be concerned about, and Roth does share a few spots with good hitting conditions (e.g. Texas). Check out the full report here: https://rotogrinders.com/weather/mlb

Posey OUT of lineup, Giants in prime matchup vs Zach Eflin

Zach Eflin (5.79 SIERA, 6.1% SwStr%, 2.3% K-BB%) has had a rocky beginning to his MLB career through two starts. The Giants have been entirely average this season versus RHP (106 wRC+, .320 wOBA, .144 ISO) but luckily have a meeting with a below average RHP tonight. The Giants bats have also come a bit more alive lately (130 wRC+, .356 wOBA, ,167 ISO last 7 days). With Buster Posey out of the lineup, the main options in play are Brandon Belt (161 wRC+, .401 wOBA, .215 ISO vs RHP), Brandon Crawford (123 wRC+, .345 wOBA, .198 ISO vs RHP), and Joe Panik (115 wRC+, .333 wOBA, .189 ISO vs RHP).

Eric Surkamp has a 6.7% SwStr%, Angels only strikeout at a 16.9% clip versus LHP

Eric Surkamp is bad (5.95 SIERA, 0.6% K-BB%). Like so bad, the Angels offense needs to be on our radar tonight as a low cost stack in tournaments. Even though the Angels (100 wRC+, .314 wOBA, .144 ISO) are a merely average offense against LHP, we can realistically consider any Angels hitter for our tournament lineups tonight. As always, the primary Angels bat to target is Mike Trout (163 wRC+, .402 wOBA, .239 ISO vs LHP since 2015). Kole Calhoun (136 wRC+, .366 wOBA, .162 ISO vs LHP) and Albert Pujols (118 wRC+, .340 wOBA, .231 ISO vs LHP) are also elite batters to target in this matchup. Johnny Giavotella getting the lineup bump up to the leadoff spot can also be considered in a stack against Surkamp.

Jake Peavy provides solid GPP value, especially on two-pitcher sites

It’s honestly not that easy to find good things to say about Jake Peavy nowadays. It’s a bit easier to do tonight with the Phillies heading to AT&T Park as huge underdogs, and with the win as valuable as it is on FanDuel, Peavy is squarely in play at his $7,100 price tag. His $6,900 price tag on DraftKings also makes it much easier to afford some of the higher end bats, even if you are also rostering a high-end arm like Max Scherzer alongside Peavy. Philadelphia ranks 2nd to last in wOBA (.288) and dead last in wRC+ (76) against RHP, and their lack of power should alleviate concerns over the amount of hard contact Peavy is allowing in the air. He’s not a recommended cash game play, but Peavy is more than viable in GPPs.

Wellington Castillo is OUT of lineup, Diamondbacks implied run total has still increased to 5.37 runs

Tyler Anderson has pitched well in his first two starts in the big leagues (2.88 SIERA, 21.7% K%, 2.2% BB%) but he is not an option tonight facing the lefty mashing Arizona Diamondbacks (120 wRC+, .357 wOBA, .206 ISO) at Coors Field. Since this is a Coors game, we can feel comfortable rostering any Diamondback hitter, regardless of lineup position, in tournaments. In cash games, we are going to want to fit as many top of the order bats that we feel necessary. The top Arizona target is Paul Goldschmidt (195 wRC+, .467 wOBA, .219 ISO vs LHP). Another great option to consider is Yasmany Tomas (177 wRC+, .441 wOBA, .333 ISO vs LHP) even with his less-than-optimal lineup position. Chris Herrmann has a very limited sample size versus LHP but can be considered based on his stellar numbers so far this season (204 wRC+, .481 wOBA, .286 ISO).

Blue Jays have a 156 wRC+, .405 wOBA, .290 ISO over the past two weeks, take on blowup-prone Carlos Rodon

Carlos Rodon has made some serious strides in improving his control issues this season (8.1% BB%). However, a home matchup against the Blue Jays is not a spot we want to target Rodon, especially with his massive struggles against right handed batters (4.47 xFIP, .361 wOBA). We can even make a case to roster any Blue Jay bat in the top two thirds of the lineup. If forced to choose between paying up for Edwin Encarnacion (183 wRC+, .444 wOBA, .400 ISO vs LHP) or Josh Donaldson (167 wRC+, .420 wOBA, .227 ISO vs LHP), Encarnacion makes for the more optimal play based on seasonal stats. Ezequiel Carrera (189 wRC+, .453 wOBA vs LHP) and Michael Saunders (175 wRC+, .433 wOBA, .357 ISO vs LHP) are the other best options to round out any Blue Jays stack.

Kevin has upgraded the TB/BAL game from Orange/Yellow to Yellow/Orange

Kevin has downgraded the level of risk associated with the TB/BAL game, making hitters a safer target here. Check out the link below for a full breakdown of tonight’s slate!

Rockies with the highest team total on tonight's slate against Archie Bradley; Carlos Gonzalez OUT of the lineup

Archie Bradley has shown some signs of life so far in 2016, but this is not a spot that will serve him well. He still has issues with HRs (seven allowed through 41 IP this year) and owns the 3rd worst Hd-Sft% on this slate (19.1), both of which do not bode well at all for a match-up with the Rockies in Coors. The left-handed bats here are the strongest targets of the group, although Charlie Blackmon (.362 wOBA, .230 ISO at home vs. RHP) is really the only viable lefty in this lineup. As for the RH bats, Nolan Arenado (.425 wOBA, .391 ISO) is the top overall target on the Colorado side, with D.J. LeMahieu (.447 wOBA, .220 ISO at home vs. RHP), Ryan Raburn (.442 wOBA, .379 ISO in 29 ABs at home vs. RHP) and Mark Reynolds (.396 wOBA, .212 ISO at home vs. RHP) also playable in any format. If you aren’t trying to pay a premium at the catcher spot, Nick Hundley also hits RHP very well at home (.428 wOBA, .230 ISO vs. RHP at home last season). Don’t be shy with your Colorado exposure, especially in cash games.

Things in Baltimore are still a little iffy, although the bats in that contest still seem to be relatively safe selections, especially in GPPs. Check out Kevin’s full breakdown of today’s slate by following the link below.

Max Scherzer is the top arm on tonight's slate

The man with two different color eyes has been flat out dominant over his last eight turns, and that streak figures to continue tonight against a Brewers lineup that owns a 25.9 K% against RHP. Scherzer has allowed two runs or less in seven of his last eight outings and while HRs are still plaguing him to a degree (18 allowed this season), those worries are relieved when you consider his ceiling. Most of his struggles this season have come against LH bats (.351 wOBA allowed, .204 wOBA allowed to RH bats) and considering the Brewers possesses very little pop from the left side, Scherzer is an elite play in all formats. He owns the highest SwStr% (14.9) and K% (32.3) on this slate.

Murphy has a 175 wRC+, .433 wOBA, .263 ISO versus RHP this season

Zach Davies has surprisingly pitched much better recently after struggling to begin the season. All in all, Davies is a neutral matchup for the Nationals (92 wRC+, .312 wOBA, .164 ISO vs RHP) who head to hitter-friendly Miller Park. A full Nationals stack isn’t something that’s necessary on this full, 15-game slate, but the Nationals lineup does provide a few solid options to roster as one-offs or even a mini-stack. Daniel Murphy (175 wRC+, .433 wOBA, .263 ISO vs RHP) has been raking this year and hasn’t shown any sides of slowing down making him the top option on the Nationals. Bryce Harper (141 wRC+, .382 wOBA, .245 ISO vs RHP) and Wilson Ramos (162 wRC+, .414 wOBA, .225 ISO vs RHP) are great options at their respective positions and also need to be considered.

Red Sox with a team total just south of 5.5 against Nick Martinez

The Red Sox are one of the top team targets of the day in Arlington against Nick Martinez. He’s only thrown seven innings in 2016, but allowed a wOBA of .388 to RH bats last season to go along with 11 HRs allowed (1.58 HR/9). He held lefties to a .297 wOBA, although the rest of his numbers would seem to indicate that he’s equally as poor against them. Martinez owned just a 1.42 K/BB ratio against LHs and finished the season with a 5.12 xFIP, so we can confidently target hitters from either side of the plate against him. Outside of Hanley Ramirez who owns a wOBA under .300 and an ISO under .100 against RHP, the rest of the top six are elite plays in any format. Mookie Betts (.375 wOBA, .222 ISO, 33.5 hard%) and David Ortiz (.485 wOBA, .394 ISO, 46.4 hard%) are both expensive and will be overshadowed by the Coors bats available at similar prices, but each of them are excellent targets industry wide, especially in GPPs where they should carry lower than normal ownership percentages. Dustin Pedroia has crushed RHP to start 2016, sporting a .366 wOBA, .169 ISO and 32.9 hard%, and the fact that he hits between the likes of Betts, Bogaerts and Ortiz makes him much more appealing. Speaking of Bogaerts, he hits RHP very well as evidenced by his .384 wOBA, .154 ISO and 139 wRC+. Like Pedroia, he benefits greatly from the bats around him in the order, and hitting in front of the always dangerous David Ortiz almost ensures that he’s going to get good pitches to hit. Jackie Bradley Jr. (.415 wOBA, .303 ISO, 40.8 hard%) is also a very strong play in any format hitting out of the six hole.

Ian Desmond batting 2nd for the Rangers; Nomar Mazara not in the lineup

Nomar Mazara was initially published in the lineup but the Rangers sent out a correction to their lineup with Ian Desmond batting second.

Twins currently implied to score 3.05 runs

Nothing about rostering Masahiro Tanaka is really all that exciting. Tanaka has been pitching more to contact this season and currently has the lowest K% of his career (18.5% K%). There is reason for some optimism as Tanaka still has a 11.0% SwStr% suggesting he is due for some positive strikeout regression. A matchup against the strikeout prone Twins offense (22.3% K% vs RHP) could be just what Tanaka needs to get back on track. The Twins are not an offense we should go out of our way to target tonight, but they do offer a couple of inexpensive bats, Robbie Grossman (143 wRC+, .384 wOBA, .209 ISO vs RHP) and Max Kepler (137 wRC+, .376 wOBA, .236 ISO vs RHP), that we can consider as cost-saving one offs in tournaments hoping they put one or two into the short porch in RF at Yankees Stadium.

Mets take on Aaron Blair, who has allowed a wOBA of at least .362 to both R and L handed bats

Aaron Blair is one of the weaker arms on tonight’s slate, and we have a chance to take advantage of that with some slightly underpriced Mets bats. Blair has walked more LHs than he’s struck out (15 BBs, 11 Ks in 22.2 IP) and has allowed a wOBA of .388 to LHs, which paints a pretty clear picture as to why he’s the owner of a 6.11 xFIP. He doesn’t allow a ton of hard contact, but he doesn’t miss many bats which makes it much tougher for him to keep runs off the board. On the Mets side, Curtis Granderson is a terrific GPP target with a .340 wOBA/.240 ISO/41.1 hard% against RHP, as he’ll likely be underowned with most of the public fixated on the bats in Coors Field. Yoenis Cespedes is back in the Mets lineup and has mashed RHP this season to the tune of a .365 wOBA/.285 ISO/38.9 hard%, and he’s an especially intriguing GPP option on FanDuel where he’ll likely be available at under 5% owned given his $4,400 price tag. On the cheaper side, Michael Conforto and James Loney are viable punt plays, although Conforto continues to be ice cold at the plate. He’ll have a nice opportunity to break out tonight, although his 7-spot in the order makes him a slightly tougher bat to target.