DFS Alerts
Prepare the fIreworks, Buchholz is pitching in Texas
Buchholz has been poor against left-handed batters, allowing an xFIP of 6.47. He is pitching in Texas where the ball tends to fly, so look to target Rangers lefties like Shin-Soo Choo and Rougned Odor. Still, the bravest DFS players will play Prince Fielder today and benefit from a sneaky home run. Fielder has a wRC+ of 168 over the last seven days, indicating that perhaps the big man is coming out of his slump.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Shin-soo Choo, Clay Buchholz
Weather Report includes many YELLOW and ORANGE rated games
Kevin Roth’s weather report includes some ORANGE and YELLOW, with the Kansas City receiving the most severe rating of ORANGE. Check out the full report here: https://rotogrinders.com/weather/mlb
As reported by: MLB Weather 3 reasons to play Carlos Beltran
Firstly, Beltran will be batting from the left side of the plate, which means he will benefit from the short porch in Yankees Stadium. On the RotoGrinders Ballpark Factors tool, Yankees Stadium has a rating of 1.045 for LHBs and stands as the 9th most optimal place for LHBs to hit. Secondly, Tyler Duffey is not striking any batters out lately, posting a putrid K rate of 5% over his last few starts. Lastly, Beltran is a contact machine over the last week, only striking out an impressive 9% of the time. Look to Beltran when constructing a productive
As reported by: FanGraphs Battle of the average fastballs: Colon versus Norris
On the season, Colon and Norris find themselves ranked 62nd and 97th worst in SIERA. With strike out rates of 17% and 18%, both pitchers have proven that they will not dominate, but have also shown the ability to prevent the all out blowup. Picking a single power bat from either side would not be a bad idea, making the strategy of playing Yoenis Cespedes (wRC+ of 135 versus RHP) and Freddie Freeman (wRC+ of 116 versus RHP) a unique strategy that could pay dividends.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Freddie Freeman Rays bats in good position to make solid contact
The Rays face a pitcher today, Tyler Wilson, who struggles to strike out many batters. His K% against both RHB and LHB is below 14% in 2016. Wilson’s fly ball rate sets him up for trouble, allowing a fly ball percentage of 46% to right-handed bats. Evan Longoria has a wRC+ of 125 this year, with a healthy 0.272 ISO, making him a strong righty-on-righty play that should be relatively unpopular.
As reported by: FanGraphs Stack bats and play...Dillon Overton?
Dillon Overton is a minor league call-up who has performed well in AAA, posting an ERA of 1.40 over his last 7 starts, allowing zero home runs over that same span. He will face an Angels team that is about league average against LHP, possessing a wRC+ of 100 against LHP. Overton’s 7.7 SO/9 in the minors is impressive, and Overton will try and translate his skillset to the pros tonight against the average hitting Angels bats. A worry with any minor league pitcher is that the manager of the big league club will keep the youngster on a pitch count, so there is more than one element of risk in playing Overton tonight. Still, he has good stuff and the Angels are more than capable of having a quiet night. He remains a viable long shot pitching option that will allow extreme flexibility with various stacking options.
As reported by: Athletic Nation and Baseball Reference Red Sox lefties will look to take advantage of good weather and a rusty A.J. Griffin
A.J Griffin is coming off the DL and facing a powerful Boston lineup that leads the league in production against right-handed pitching (team wRC+ of 120). Griffin’s xFIP this year versus LHBs is an unimpressive 5.37, and he is striking out lefties only 18.3% of the time. Look for David Ortiz and Jackie Bradley Jr. to take advantage of any rust Griffin may have after his extended hiatus.
As reported by: FanGraphs and MLB Press Other tagged players: Jackie Bradley Three reasons to play Enrique Hernandez
First off, Hernandez crushes left-handed pitchers for his cheap price on most sites, sporting an ISO of 0.273 this year against LHP. Secondly, the left-handed pitcher he is facing tonight is Jeff Locke. Locke has a an xFIP of 5.21 against RHBs, striking out a putrid 11.5% of RHBs faced. Thirdly, while still a below average park for RHBs, PNC Park (0.969 on RotoGrinders Park Factors tool) is still an upgrade over Dodger Stadium (0.943 on RotoGrinders Park Factors tool). This third aspect of playing away from Dodgers Stadium also increases the chances Hernandez will get an extra at-bat in the top of the 9th, even if the Dodgers have a lead.
As reported by: FanGraphs and MLB Press and RotoGrinders Park Factors Other tagged players: Jeff Locke Left-handed batting Astros, Valbuena and Rasmus are especially noteworthy tonight
Chris Young makes his living by attempting to effectively allow a high fly ball percentage. Over his last few starts, his fly ball percentage is a predictably high 50% and 90% of his contact has been either hard or medium contact. That would seem like a recipe for disaster tonight versus the Astros. However, Young does have a good k% of 27.5% over that same time period and the game will be played in Kansas City. If his back spasms have settled down, Luis Valbuena has the power to put one out and Colby Rasmus makes for a sensible mid-value play in the outfield.
As reported by: FanGraphs and MLB Press Other tagged players: Colby Rasmus, Chris Young Jean Segura leading off, facing an average defensive catcher
Jorge De La Rosa will be pitching to catcher, Tony Wolters. According to the RotoGrinders Stolen Base Predictor, the battery of De La Rosa and Wolters have a rating of -0.14, which is a scintilla worse than average at preventing stolen bases. Segura has been on the run lately, swiping 5 bases over the last 7 games he has played and De La Rosa is a hittable pitcher to begin with, sporting a wOBA versus RHBs of 0.415. Look to Segura as a high floor second base option who has a decent chance of stealing a base, which is icing on the cake since the game will take place in Coors Field.
As reported by: FanGraphs and RotoGrinders Stolen Base Predictor Other tagged players: Jorge De La Rosa Not a typo: Play some of the Padres right-handed bats, beginning with Wil Myers
The Padres face Brandon Finnegan tonight, a pitcher who has struggled against both LHBs and RHBs. Finnegan’s xFIP is 4.80 against RHBs, but even worse against LHBs at 5.74. Yangervis Solarte (wRC+ vs. LHP of 196), Matt Kemp (wRC+ vs. LHP of 191), Wil Myers (wRC+ vs. LHP of 156), and Melvin Upton Jr. (wRC+ vs. LHP of 123) are all in play.
As reported by: FanGraphs and MLB Press Other tagged players: Matt Kemp, Melvin Upton, Yangervis Solarte Wilson Contreras should be popular again, batting cleanup
Contreras will be batting cleanup after sporting an amazing wRC+ of 274 over the last 7 days. He should be a popular option, but if you believe in hot streaks early on for minor league call-ups, feel free to ride the hot bat against a weak pitcher in Paul Clemens.
As reported by: FanGraphs and MLB Press Jose Abreu has a good history against the knuckleball
Jose Abreu has a quality history against the knuckleball, possessing a wKN/C of 3.61 against the knuckleball, dating back to the beginning of the 2015 season. Abreu faces R.A. Dickey today in Chicago, in a park that plays about average for right-handed bats. Furthermore, if you are a subscriber of “at least” using BvP for knuckleball pitcher matchups, Abreu has collected 3.75 FanDuel fantasy points per at bat against R.A. Dickey. If Abreu does not succeed today, it was not because he was in a bad position to do well.
As reported by: FanGraphs and RotoGrinders Daily Batter Hub Other tagged players: R.A. Dickey Michael Pineda's numbers are better than they appear, weighed down from a slow start
Michael Pineda is better than his numbers appear unless they are stratified by month. His wOBA was 0.407 in March/April, 0.394 in May, and a much better 0.284 in 0.284. Additionally, his k% has climbed from 24% to 29% over that same time period and today he faces the Twins. The Twins have a wRC+ of 88 versus RHPs this year, and strike out an above average 22% of the time. Look for Pineda to be owned at a lower ownership than he deserves because DFS players will see the cumulative season numbers. Pineda is a fine play today, with the fact that the game is being played at Yankees stadium being the one drawback.
As reported by: FanGraphs Logan Forsythe leading off for the Rays in a band box
Logan Forsythe is facing a right-handed pitcher today, although it is Kevin Gausman who may be more known for reverse splits amongst the DFS community than most pitchers. Gausman has a 0.421 xFIP against right-handed batters, although his 26% HR/FB does not seem sustainable (his FB% is only 30%). On the negative side for Gausman, however, he is only striking out RHBs less than 19% of the time, so some of the right-handed Rays bats should at least have a fair chance of making solid contact. Forsythe has a wRC+ this year of 115 with an ISO of 0.151 when facing RHPs. Forsythe makes for a sneak good play today.
As reported by: FanGraphs and MLB Press Other tagged players: Kevin Gausman