DFS Alerts

Machado returns from suspension to face a LHP

Matt Moore has merely been average as a whole this season. However, he has struggled against right handed batters and receives a massive park downgrade heading to Camden Yards to face a righty-heavy Orioles lineup. As RH as the Orioles are, they have actually been below average against LHP this season (91 wRC+, .311 wOBA). Baltimore has been firing on all cylinders lately though (139 wRC+, .381 wOBA, .181 ISO last 7 days) and get a jolt to the lineup with Machado returning from suspension. Manny Machado (174 wRC+, .433 wOBA, .305 ISO vs LHP) is the clear top option in the Orioles lineup. We can also look to Joey Rickard (144 wRC+, .388 wOBA, .215 ISO vs LHP) and Mark Tumbo (.338 ISO vs LHP) for his double HR upside.

Taillon has a 6.4% SwStr% in 3 starts this season

Jameson Taillon may end up attracting more ownership tonight than he probably should. Taillon has struggled mightily so far with left handed batters. The sample size is extremely small, yes, but it’s a trend worth noting. The Dodger have been an average offense against RHP this season but have been hitting much better lately (117 wRC+, .342 wOBA, .207 ISO the past 7 days). A Dodgers stack on a full slate with so many hitting options may not be the route we want to take but targeting one or two Dodgers lefties in a tournament could be more than viable. Corey Seager (145 wRC+, .382 wOBA, .229 ISO vs RHP) and Chase Utley (117 wRC+, .340 wOBA) are the primary options batting at the top of the order. Joc Pederson (130 wRC+, .360 wOBA, .266 ISO vs RHP) is perhaps another option for his potential power upside.

McCann joins Ellsbury on bench against LHP Milone (5 HRs in 23 innings this year)

Although Yankee Stadium is known for having a short RF porch, it’s a good atmosphere for RH power hitters as well and Tommy Milone is a lefty who has allowed five HRs in 23 innings this season with a 0.98 GB/FB and 11.0 HR/FB for his career (though a few more ground balls this season). Carlos Beltran (152 wRC+, .329 ISO vs LHP this season) is a top OF play tonight for $4.5K or less, while Alex Rodriguez (110 wRC+, .248 ISO vs LHP this season) costs less than $4K. Rob Refsnyder (103 wRC+ vs LHP) is the value play in the 2nd spot for $2.8K on either site, but has shown little power in the majors thus far.

Braves have a 22.6% K% versus LHP this season

There’s a consensus out there among DFS players that the Braves do not strikeout a lot. While this is true against RHP, it is simply not the case against lefties. In fact, the Braves are just atrocious against LHP in general (59 wRC+, .260 wOBA, .080 ISO). Tonight the Braves will be taking on Steven Matz (3.25 SIERA, 24.8% K%, 5.1% BB%) at Turner Field which is a ball park that is conducive for strikeouts and generally considered a pitcher-friendly park. In a vacuum, all this makes Matz an amazing play tonight. However, we need to be aware that Matz experienced elbow tightness in his previous start and will be monitored closely by Terry Collins throughout this start. Meaning at any point Matz could be pulled and Collins may be extra cautious with his pitch count as well. While we should probably avoid Matz in cash games, he makes for a great tournament play as ownership may be reduced in this prime matchup due to the concerns with Matz’s elbow.

Hendricks has a 16.9 K% with a 54.0 GB%, but doesn't often go deep in games

There’s little question about Kyle Hendricks performing well while in the game. He has a strong 16.9 K-BB% with the 12th best GB% (54.0) and the top Soft% (29.0) in baseball. However, he’s gone past six innings in just one four of 13 starts and will likely be pulled early for a hitter if his team is behind. So even on sites that don’t emphasize pitcher Wins, you’re essentially chasing a Win. While pitcher Wins are difficult to project, he does appear to be on the better side with Koehler on the mound opposite him in a decent matchup (Marlins 89 wRC+ at home, 97 wRC+ vs RHP). At a cost below $10K, Kendricks is a nice option, but carries concern due to frequently imposed limits. There is little interest in Marlins bats with so much weak contact on the ground expected.

An 11.7 BB% has kept Salazar under six innings in five of 13 starts

Danny Salazar has an amazing 29.5 K%, but an 11.7 BB% has held to him to fewer than six innings in five of 13 starts this season. That, plus a .250 BABIP and 86.0 LOB% has his ERA a bit lower than his estimators, potentially setting him up for a fade at $13K on DraftKings against a tough Detroit team (116 wRC+ at home, 108 wRC+ vs RHP). It’s a bit of a close call for $10K on FanDuel, where he’s just the 4th most expensive pitcher tonight. Detroit bats don’t hold much interest, though Miguel Cabrera (178 wRC+, .292 ISO vs RHP this season) is back to being matchup proof and worth a look any time he’s less than $4K on DraftKings. Steven Moya (146 wRC+, .302 ISO vs RHP this season) needs to be mentioned as a minimum cost (or close to it) Outfielder.

Cubs shake up top three with Rizzo and Fowler still OUT

Tom Koehler is generating weaker contact than in previous years (23.6 Hard%), but his 5.3 HR/FB is well below his career rate, allowing him to maintain an ERA below four with estimators around five. A 12.9 BB% is a major culprit and won’t mesh well with the Cubs 11.0 BB% vs RHP. Unfortunately, walks don’t often get the job done in DFS, setting this up as a potential fade situation without Rizzo and Fowler. New leadoff man Jason Heyward has just a 76 wRC+ and .094 ISO vs RHP this season, while Ben Zobrist bats 3rd with a 28 wRC+ over the last week. Kris Bryant, batting 2nd tonight, is the top overall bat (138 wRC+, .216 ISO vs RHP career), but costs quite a bit with RHBs carrying just a .298 wOBA against Koehler since last season. Cleanup Catcher Willson Contreras (239 wRC+ in his first week in the majors) and Chris Coghlan behind him (104 wRC+ vs RHP since 2015, but just 49 wRC+ this year) are the likely value plays here for around $2.5K on either site.

Matt Kemp has a 196 wRC+ and .400 ISO vs LHP this season

Cody Reed is the third of three arms in the Johnny Cueto trade (Finnegan, Lamb), all of whom have now made their way to the Cincinnati rotation. He struck out nine of 28 Astros in his debut and is said to have made major improvements this season, especially against RHBs, but still struggles with control and command occasionally. He does appear to have some upside (Padres 23.8 K% vs LHP), though may be a very risky start for $6.5K or more against one of the best offenses in the league vs LHP (116 wRC+, 17.2 HR/FB) in a power friendly park. It starts with Matt Kemp, who has destroyed LHP this season (196 wRC+, .400 ISO). Wil Myers has been strong as well (142 wRC+, .228 ISO vs LHP), but may be a bit over-priced. Upton (125 wRC+, .232 ISO vs LHP) and Solarte (189 wRC+, .281 ISO vs LHP) might be stronger value plays for $3.6K or less on either site. Adam Rosales (113 wRC+, .196 ISO vs LHP) can serve as a total punt in the Outfield (if paying up for Scherzer for example) batting 8th for less than $3K.

Votto returns to Cincinnati lineup at home vs Rea

It’s difficult to buy into Colin Rea’s increase in strikeout rate to 19% over the last month as he still retains a SwStr% well below 7%. He has just a 4.1 K-BB% on the road since last season, though with interesting platoon splits overall since last year. RHBs have a 30 point higher wOBA (.332 vs .302), but LHBs have hit him harder (35.6 Hard% to 26.8 Hard%). This means a number of Reds (16.6 HR/FB at home) are viable or even premium plays in a lineup projected for five runs, starting with the returning Votto (157 wRC+, .227 ISO vs RHP since 2015) and Bruce (138 wRC+, .326 ISO vs RHP this season) plus Adam Duvall (130 wRC+, .356 ISO vs RHP since 2015). Cozart (101 wRC+, .191 ISO vs RHP since 2015) is a solid SS option atop the lineup again. Of course, Votto’s return moves Hamilton down to seventh, which may be a blessing as players will be less tempted to use him.

Can Cody Reed do it again?

Cody Reed was impressive in his debut striking out nine and facing the Padres he makes for an intriguing GPP play given his upside and the match up he has. The Padres have been hitting better of late and do have some bats that can do some damage against southpaws so it’s a fairly risky play if you choose to make it. Matt Kemp has a .470 wOBA and .400 ISO this season vs LHP and is the top option for San Diego. Wil Myers, Yangervis Solarte, and Melvin Upton Jr. all have wOBA’s topping .350 against LHP and are also in play. Colin Rea takes the mound for the Padres and he’s fared worse against RH bats over his short career (.332 wOBA allowed) which puts the majority of the Reds lineup in play tonight. The top six of their lineup (Cozart-Votto-Phillips-Bruce-Duvall-Suarez) are viable options with Duvall and Bruce the top choices for a team that has a run total approaching 4 3/4 runs.

Graveman (16.8%) is facing the lowest strikeout rate offense (16.0%) with the worst team defense behind him

Kendall Graveman has struck out five or fewer in each of his last eight starts and is facing the offense with the lowest strikeout rate vs RHP (16.0%) with the worst defense in the league (and it’s not even close) behind him (-12.4 UZR/150). The complicated thing is that 53.6% of that contact has been on the ground with just a 9.0 Hard-Soft% vs RHBs. Mike Trout (168 wRC+, .283 ISO vs RHP since 2015) is the every night play if you can afford him. Kole Calhoun (117 wRC+, .171 ISO vs RHP since 2015) deserves a look as well for $4K or less. LHBs have a 20.7 Hard-Soft% against Graveman this year with a lower 48.2 GB%.

Gonzalez has a 141 wRC+, .407 wOBA, .237 ISO versus RHP this season

On a slate lacking viable SP options, we can expect Zack Greinke to attract a substantial portion of ownership in tournaments. The majority of players looking for Coors Field exposure will be paying up for Diamondbacks batters and ignore the Rockies bats because they are facing Greinke. Coors Field prohibits pitchers so much that we shouldn’t be worried about attacking Greinke in tournaments. Whenever the Rockies face a RHP in Coors, Carlos Gonzalez (141 wRC+, .407 wOBA, .237 ISO vs RHP) is always a top option for the slate. You can honestly make a case for playing any Colorado hitter in the lineup tonight, but we should be focusing on Charlie Blackmon (121 wRC+, .377 wOBA, .229 ISO vs RHP), Trevor Story (113 wRC+, .365 wOBA, .322 ISO vs RHP), and Mark Reynolds (126 wRC+, .384 wOBA, .230 ISO vs RHP) to round out Colorado stacks. Nolan Arenado (124 wRC+, .381 wOBA, .284 ISO vs RHP) is highly priced on most sites and could make for a nice contrarian tournament play due to the RvR matchup and double HR upside he provides on a nightly basis.

Tim Linecum has allowed RHBs a .368 wOBA and 38.9 Hard% since last season

Tim Lincecum struck out and walked two A’s each in his first major league start this year, stranding 85.7% of runners. He did strike out 19 of 66 batters in three AAA starts this season, but an ERA and estimators above four the last couple of years in a great park hardly makes him worth more than $7K here. Lincecum has had a bit of a reverse platoon split the last few seasons, more pronounced since last season (.368 wOBA, 38.9 Hard% for RHBs vs .266 wOBA, 28.4 Hard% for LHBs). RHBs Valencia (130 wRC+ ,.225 ISO vs RHP since 2015) and Davis (115 wRC+, .248 ISO vs RHP since 2015) appear solid starts for less than $4K tonight. Davis has two HRs in seven plate appearances against Lincecum with a 95.6 mph aEV in five batted balls. Max Muncy (106 wRC+) costs the minimum at a position we don’t want to punt tonight (First Base), but bats 2nd.

Kevin’s late update brings us two games that have a slight chance of experiencing delays, which would most like mean a late start if anything at all, in Cincinnati and Colorado. Neither appears to be reason for concern or fade considerations. Read the full report on our Weather Page, linked below, and follow Kevin on Twitter (@KevinRothWx) for further updates.

Arizona has tonight's top run projection (6.15) against Butler (43.7 GB%, 26.0 Hard-Soft%)

Eddie Butler at least had an above average ground ball rate last year, but this year it’s down to 43.7% with a 25.2 LD% and 26.0 Hard-Soft% to go with just a 15.2 K%. Expecting a lot of hard contact tonight, Arizona is easily the top projected offense tonight (6.15 runs). Every bat in this lineup is playable. Unfortunately, there are only two LH bats in Lamb (150 wRC+, .289 ISO vs RHP this season) and Brito (83 wRC+, .161 ISO vs RHP career), who bats 9th. LHBs have a .432 wOBA against Butler in his career. RHBs still hit him well too (.363 wOBA). Paul Goldschmidt (150 wRC+, .240 ISO vs RHP since 2015) is the top bat, while Yasmany Tomas (74 wRC+, .114 ISO vs RHP career) gains some value now batting 2nd for around $4K. Phil Gosselin (100 wRC+, .151 ISO vs RHP since 2015) is the cheapest bat, below $3.5K on either site, and the surprise entry in tonight’s lineup.