DFS Alerts

While a number of games are carry some risk of showers, only Philadelphia at Minnesota carries real concern in Kevin’s late update. While he believes it’s more likely to play than not, Kevin leans towards fading pitchers in this game, which shouldn’t be a major problem. Be sure to check our Weather Page, linked below, for the full report and follow Kevin on Twitter (@KevinRothWx) for further updates.

Phillies are worst offense vs RHP (73 wRC+), Gibson generates a lot of ground balls (53.1%)

Kyle Gibson has just a 1.3 K-BB%. His 8.2 SwStr% is in line with his career rate an would suggest more than an 11.2 K%, but he’s always been a pitcher who’s struggled to put batters away. What he does do is induced lots of weak contact (3.5 Hard-Soft%) on the ground (53.1 GB%) making him perhaps not the best pitcher to attack in a DFS sense, especially with RHBs (55.6 GB%, -4.7 Hard-Soft% this season). The Phillies 10 run outburst last night brought there wRC+ over the last week all the way up to 45 and with a 4.5 Hard-Soft% vs RHP this season, they are the kings of weak contact and also the worst offense in the league against righties (73 wRC+, 15.9 K-BB%). If we’re looking anywhere here, it’s probably at LHBs at the top of the lineup who can get on base and maybe score a couple of runs in Herrera (123 wRC+ vs RHP career) and Blanco (113 wRC+, .197 ISO vs RHP since 2015).

Cole Hamels has an absurdly high 20.5% HR/FB while inducing a 52.2% GB%

Cole Hamels draws a slightly above average match up tonight against the Cincinnati Reds (96 wRC+, 22.2% K%, 6.7% BB%). Hamels has been pitching well recently and a majority of his struggles this season have been the direct result of an astronomical 20.5% HR/FB and a high 9.2% BB%. The good news for Hamels is that his HR/FB rate is due for some serious regression and the Reds do not take a ton of walks against LHP. Hamels has maintained a solid 12.7% SwStr% this season that falls right in line with his career numbers, so we can expect him to continue striking out batters at or above the 22.9% K% he’s posted thus far this season. The bottom line is that Hamels is in as good of a spot as any SP tonight to post a decent stat line. There are much better spots to look for bats tonight than the Reds offense but Zack Cozart (152 wRC+, .402 wOBA, .321 ISO vs LHP) and Eugenio Suarez (151 wRC+, .400 wOBA, .270 ISO vs LHP) could be options if deciding to go that route.

Chris Archer has struggled on the road, but struck out 12 in his last road start

Cleveland has the best home offense in baseball (126 wRC+) and a lot of that comes on walks (9.9%), which is a major red flag in Chris Archer’s game as he already struggles on the road and with walks, but he has upside we might not be able to completely fade tonight. He is one of only two pitchers on tonight’s board with a strikeout rate above 24% and the other only has five starts. An encouraging sign was 12 strikeouts in his last road start in Arizona and at least seven strikeouts in each of his last three starts, which should give him a base to work with even if things do go bad here. Consider him a high risk, high upside start here. Another component in his favor is that RHBs have a .301 wOBA and 34.6 Hard% with 21 of the 34 HRs against him since last season, while LHBs have just a .281 wOBA, yet Cleveland is running out six LH bats tonight. The two most interesting ones might even be towards the bottom with 6th place hitter Juan Uribe (330 wRC+ last seven days) looking to homer in his 5th straight game and Tyler Naquin (145 wRC+, .217 ISO vs RHP) batting 9th. This really looks like an Archer or fade proposition.

Eduardo Rodriguez has allowed six HRs to RHBs in four starts

Eduardo Rodriguez has been terrible, striking out just three more batters than he’s walked through four starts with six HRs. RHBs have all six of those HRs with a .419 wOBA against him this season. Todd Frazier (98 wRC+, .308 ISO vs LHP this season) and Brett Lawrie (127 wRC+, .213 ISO vs LHP this season) top a list of interest here at $3.7K or below on either site without either expected to be highly owned. Melky Cabrera (124 wRC+, .204 ISO vs LHP this season) has showed renewed power against lefties this year, but costs a bit more on DraftKings.

Nelson Cruz OUT against Michael Fulmer in Detroit

Michael Fulmer is having a fine rookie season, but his 2.43 ERA is well below his 4.04 SIERA and 3.97 xFIP and there are some indicators he’s begun to regress in recent starts with a total of 13 strikeouts and 10 walks over his last three. An unsustainable 86.5 LOB% has kept runs off the board though. He’s a dangerous pay up against the 3rd best offense vs RHP this season (116 wRC+, 15.8 HR/FB, 15.1 Hard-Soft%), though it gets a bit better without Nelson Cruz tonight. Seattle bats are a bit interesting on at reduced prices on DraftKings with only Cano (189 wRC+, .337 ISO vs RHP this season) and Seager (163 wRC+, .280 ISO vs RHP this season) above $3.3K and nobody more expensive than $4.1K. Prices are not reduced on FanDuel, where Dae-Ho Lee (154 wRC+, .250 ISO vs RHP) for $2.5K in the cleanup spot may be the only real value here.

Trevor Bauer has gone at least seven innings in four straight starts, faces an offense with a 25.2 K% vs RHP

Trevor Bauer may be on the best pitching stretch of his major league career with at least seven innings in each of his last four starts and nine or more strikeouts twice (though just three strikeouts once). He’s held his 21.8 career K% this year, while finally reducing his walk rate to league average (8.2%). He faces a Tampa Bay offense that should increase his strikeouts (25.2 K% vs RHP), but they do have some power (15.2 HR/FB vs RHP). Bauer is a fine candidate for $8.1K on FanDuel, though $10.6K on DraftKings (most expensive pitcher) might be a bit aggressive for someone who’s been so wildly inconsistent throughout his career. Bauer has shown little split with batters from both sides holding a wOBA around .300 against him since last season. Perhaps leadoff man Logan Forsythe (111 wRC+ vs RHP since 2015) is worth a look for well less than $4K on either site.

Fading Red Sox batters may actually be a good idea (for once)

This is in no way a resounding endorsement for rostering Jose Quintana (3.57 SIERA, 23.8% K%, 4.9% BB%), but Quintana would be the preferred play over the Red Sox offense if targeting this game tonight. Although the Red Sox have been the best offense in MLB, they have been struggling of late (86 wRC+, .305 wOBA over the last 7 days). The problem with rostering Quintana, however, is that the risk is likely to outweigh the reward against these Red Sox hitters (18.5% K%, 8.5% BB%). If choosing to target Red Sox bats against Quintana we should look to avoid a full stack as it is doubtful Quintana gets completely shelled. Chris Young (200 wRC+, .474 wOBA, .326 ISO vs LHP) and Xander Bogaerts (178 wRC+, .441 wOBA, .211 ISO vs LHP) make for the best plays here. Mookie Betts may even worth a tournament dart as he has been extremely unlucky versus LHP this season (.118 BABIP)

Brandon Belt has hit LHP well (140 wRC+, .221 ISO since 2015) and Liriano has allowed a .332 wOBA to LHBs this year

Against every team not from St Louis this season, Francisco Liriano has allowed 38 ERs in 54.1 innings with 13 HRs, 36 BBs, and just 46 strikeouts. Lefties (.332 wOBA) and righties (.361 wOBA) are both hitting him this season. It’s a pitcher’s park, especially favoring LHPs and Liriano has allowed just three HRs at home this season, though he allowed 13 of 15 at home last season. The Giants really only have two above average bats against LHP, in Belt (140 wRC+, .221 ISO since 2015) and Posey (139 wRC+, .183 ISO since 2015) and both are moderately priced. Belt has a 232 wRC+ over the last week and is unlikely to be on many radars against LHP with a reputation for dominating LHBs.

Iwakuma has a lower 12.8 HR/FB, but just many HRs because of a higher fly ball rate (38.9%)

Hisashi Iwakuma has a 12.5 K-BB% with an ERA and estimators above four this year, but somehow carries a price tag above $8K on both sites in Detroit tonight. His HR rate is down to league average this year (12.8 HR/FB), but his fly ball rate has jumped to 38.9%, so he’s still allowing the same amount of HRs (14 this season) with about an average rate of hard contact (30.5%). LHBs (.323 wOBA since 2015) have hit him a bit better than RHBs (.289 wOBA since 2015), but Miguel Cabrera (167 wRC+, .222 ISO vs RHP since 2015) is still our top overall bat here. Steven Moya (100 wRC+, .208 ISO vs RHP this season) is the salary saver. With six batters excluding Upton, Maybin, and Iglesias carrying and ISO of .197 or higher vs RHP this year, a HR is likely, but it’s going to be difficult guessing where it will come from. Kevin expressed some concern about weather factors in this game too this morning, so players will want to watch for his late update.

Ubaldo Jimenez has been terrible, but Padres have just a 77 wRC+ vs RHP

Ubaldo Jimenez has been pitching so poorly, he was removed from the rotation and allowed five runs in a relief outing before being reinserted for today’s start. Such is the state of the Baltimore rotation. The Padres have been one of the hotter offenses in the majors (134 wRC+ last seven days), but are still the 2nd worst offense vs RHP (77 wRC+, 17.6 K-BB%). When Ubaldo goes bad, which is often this year, it’s generally with walks, while still keeping the ball on the ground 50% of the time. He has allowed batters from both sides a .342 wOBA since last season, but held RHBs to a 25.8 Hard% (LHBs 32.3 Hard%), which makes him kind of difficult to attack here, especially on DraftKings with some higher priced bats. The Padres really don’t have a strong LHB, but Wallace (103 wRC+, .171 ISO vs RHP this season), Jankowski (107 wRC+ vs RHP this season) and Solarte (88 wRC+ vs RHP this season) are all $2.5K or less on FanDuel.

Jonathan Schoop moves into 3rd spot for tonight's top projected lineup (6.01 runs)

No Machado, no problem, or at least that’s how Vegas sees it for Baltimore, at home against Erik Johnson (7.66 ERA, 5.16 SIERA, 15.4 K%) tonight. Batters from either side have a wOBA above .370 with a hard hit rate above 38% against him since last season with less than 40% of that contact on the ground. Chris Davis (129 wRC+, .256 ISO vs RHP this season) may be tonight’s top overall hitter, but Pedro Alvarez (129 wRC+, .267 ISO vs RHP this season) is a much cheaper pivot at First Base with nearly as much upside.The top seven in this lineup all have a wRC+ above 107 vs RHP this season with only Kim of that group carrying an ISO below .190. Trumbo is the only batter in the entire lineup with a wRC+ below 98 over the last week. Jonathan Schoop (115 wRC+, .214 ISO vs RHP this season) bats 3rd tonight, but is the 2nd most expensive batter in this lineup on DraftKings. Anywhere you can get exposure to the top seven in this lineup is recommended, though they’re likely to be very popular without much in the way of expensive starting pitching tonight.

Samardzija has struck out a total of 13 over his last four starts

With just a total of 13 strikeouts over his last four starts, Jeff Samardzija’s season strikeout rate has now dipped to 19.9%. A complete game outing against Tampa Bay in his last start (with just four strikeouts) is the first time he’d gone more than five innings in four starts. A 3.14 ERA is under-cut by an xFIP and SIERA just under four. Pittsburgh is an above average offense, currently struggling in a pitcher’s park, but Samardzija will cost you around $9K or more on either site and perhaps has less upside than similarly priced pitchers (no games with more than nine strikeouts this season). While there’s probably not a lot of value in attacking him either, LHBs do have a .344 wOBA against him since last season, making Polanco (149 wRC+, .218 ISO vs RHP this season) a moderately priced consideration, with Jaso (124 wRC+ vs RHP since 2015) and Joyce (166 wRC+, .316 vs RHP this season), batting 5th, potential salary savers tonight for $3K or less.

Blue Jays have highest run total for afternoon slate

Diamondbacks SP Robbie Ray has allowed a .341 wOBA to RH bats over the past two seasons – not a good thing when you are facing the potent Blue Jays offense. Devon Travis, Josh Donaldson, and Edwin Encarnacion are the top three in the batting order for the Jays and all are top options on today’s afternoon slate. The rest of the lineup is also in play with Russell Martin, Troy Tulowitzki, and Kevin Pillar being excellent RH bats to target at lower price points if you want exposure to the Jays bats. J.A. Happ comes in as a large favorite but we can target some RH bats from the Diamondbacks in what should be a high scoring game. Jean Segura, Paul Goldschmidt, and Welington Castillo are the top three there with Philip Gosselin, Rickie Weeks, and Pete O’Brien providing some high-risk, high-upside value options in the top six of the Dbacks lineup.

Matt Shoemaker looks to continue impressive run against Astros today

You wouldn’t be able to tell it by the Vegas odds but Matt Shoemaker has been pitching like a man possessed of late with a 2.39 SIERA, 32.7% K rate, and 1.2% BB rate over his last six starts. He’s an excellent GPP target today facing the boom-or-bust Astros lineup. Lance McCullers takes the mound for the Astros and he’s another pitcher with high upside (27.5% K rate) facing an Angels team that outside of Mike Trout is fairly anemic, especially considering that Albert Pujols is sitting for the second straight day. Trout is worth a look if you have the salary cap but outside of that avoid all hitters in this game and look to target the SP options in GPPs especially if you are wanting to get off the masses that will be on Syndergaard and Arrieta.