DFS Alerts

Cubs look to avoid sweep against Cardinals today

The Cardinals have given the Cubs fits this three game series winning the first two. Fortunately the Cubs have to feel good about their chances today as they bring their ace, Jake Arrieta, to the mound today. He’ll square off against a somewhat struggling Michael Wacha. Arrieta brings a sub 2 ERA (3.25 SIERA) and 27.8% K rate into today’s game and is right up there with Noah Syndergaard as a top SP option. The match up, however, is tougher for Arrieta as the Cardinals are top 10 in every offensive metric against RHP. If you’re looking for exposure to Cubs bats from this game, target their LH hitters as Wacha has a .326 wOBA and 1.1 HR/9 allowed to them this season. Ben Zobrist and Anthony Rizzo are your top targets with Chris Coghlan and Jason Heyward secondary options from the top two spots in the batting order.

Noah Syndergaard top SP option of early slate

Noah Syndergaard had his start pushed back a day by the Mets and comes into today’s afternoon slate as the top SP option. He has posted a 2.38 SIERA, 31.9% K rate and 3.6% BB rate this season, making him one of the best pitchers in baseball. In the past, we wanted to avoid targeting SP’s when they faced the Royals but they have been a different team this season so we can target Syndergaard with some comfort. Danny Duffy has performed exceptionally well this season and makes for an intriguing GPP play. He’s especially dominant against LH batters (.215 wOBA allowed) but enters today with a 3.03 SIERA and 29.0% K rate. Yoenis Cespedes is worth a look from the Mets lineup but outside of him it’s probably a match up best avoided.

Jon Gray performs much better on the road

Earlier today the Yankees had a run total of just under five runs and that number has dropped in a short period of time to just over 4.5 runs. This means one thing – bettors are liking the Yankees to under perform today and there’s sound logic behind that reasoning as Rockies SP Jon Gray has been excellent away from the confines of Coors Field. He has allowed under a .300 wOBA to both sides of the plate on the road with a K% of 30.4 to LH bats and 26.0 to RH bats. He makes for an excellent pivot or SP2 option today facing a Yankees lineup that has struggled most of the season. CC Sabathia takes the mound for the Yankees – he’s actually been a bit of an anomaly this season compared to his career as he has struggled more with LH bats where traditionally that’s been a match up he dominated. We can’t ignore the .370 wOBA and 1.72 HR/9 rate he allowed to RH bats last season though even if he has been better against them in 2016. DJ LeMahieu, Nolan Arenado, Trevor Story, and Ryan Raburn are all good options and given Sabathia’s struggles with LH bats this season we can add Carlos Gonzalez and Charlie Blackmon to the mix. If you feel like taking a chance on Yankees bats, target their top five (Ellsbury, Gardner, Beltran, Rodriguez, McCann).

Target Marlins LH bats against John Gant

John Gant has struggled in his short major league career, especially against LH bats (to the tune of a .359 wOBA). The struggling Giancarlo Stanton gets the day off for the Marlins but the LH bats of Christian Yelich, Justin Bour, and Derek Dietrich are all in play. Ichiro Suzuki is as well, although he’s very unlikely to put up a huge day for you – but he is a safe option batting lead off. Adam Conley is in line for a win and has a projected runs allowed of under 3.5 which is always a good indicator in terms of targeting SP. That said, he has allowed a wOBA of over .300 to both sides of the plate. One thing we can be certain of is that he won’t allow a HR to a LH hitter as he has yet to do so in his short career (which of course now means Freddie Freeman will hit three today). With many other pitching options out there on this large afternoon slate, there are better places to go, especially on one SP sites. He does make some sense on a two SP site like DraftKings though. Jeff Francoeur is worth a look batting clean up for the Braves as Conley has struggled some against RH power hitters in the past.

Padres-Orioles to open in a rain delay

Tonight’s Baltimore-San Diego tilt will not start on time. It may be wise to shuffle off of them in cash games, but both teams hold nice GPP value given that their ownership levels should be lower than normal.

Jason Hammel has an 84.7 LOB% and his lowest K-BB (13.3%) since leaving Colorado

Jason Hammel has an ERA two runs below his ERA due to an 84.7 LOB% with a 13.3 K-BB% that’s only league average and his worst mark since leaving Colorado. In a tough spot for more than $8K, he’s a difficult sell when he’s often not asked to go deep into games. Matt Carpenter (159 wRC+, .269 ISO vs RHP since 2015) has become matchup proof, even though RHBs have just a .306 wOBA against Hammel since last season. He’s otherwise not a pitcher we should be that interested in attacking, especially when Joe Maddon will play bullpen matchups after two times through the order if necessary.

Royals bats are priced for Syndergaard on DraftKings, but facing Colon

Kansas City bats offer a unique opportunity tonight. None of them stand out as particularly strong, but they offer some salary relief as they were priced for Noah Syndgaard on DraftKings, but get Bartolo Colon, who has little platoon split, with batters having a wOBA right around .300 against him from either side, but his SwStr is down to 5.5% this season. Whit Merrifield (114 wRC+ vs RHP) costs just $3K with Paulo Orlando (136 wRC+ vs RHP this season) costs just $2.5K. The top bats, Sal Perez (146 wRC+, .259 ISO vs RHP this season) and Eric Hosmer (157 wRC+, .184 ISO vs RHP this season) are a bit more at $3.5K. FanDuel does not adjust as much for matchups, giving players less of an little edge there.

The SD/BAL game has been downgraded slightly to Orange/Yellow, but Kevin will provide a full update on that contest during the 6:30 GrindersLive show. Make sure to tune in!

Rangers implied run total has increased to 5.9 runs

To put it mildly, Anthony DeSclafani (6.36 SIERA) has not pitched well since being activated from the disabled list. Tonight he heads to Globe Life Park to take on the red hot Texas Rangers. There honestly isn’t a single Rangers bat we should be concerned about rostering against DeSclafani and the horrid Cincinnati Reds bullpen. The primary Rangers bats to target are Jurickson Profar (192 wRC+, .464 wOBA, .214 ISO vs RHP) and Nomar Mazara (127 wRC+, .369 wOBA, .204 ISO vs RHP). Profar and Mazara are both cost effective options checking in at sub $4K on Draftkings while batting in the top half of the Rangers lineup. Other great options to round out a Rangers stack are Ian Desmond (.350 wOBA, .192 ISO vs RHP), Robinson Chirinos (.348 wOBA, .296 ISO vs RHP), and Shin-Soo Choo, who is batting lead off and has been absolutely raking since being activated from the disabled list.

There is one game in the late forecast with potential weather impact and Kevin seems to disagree with forecast models that call the San Diego Baltimore affair highly risky. Read his full report on our Weather Page linked below and stay tuned for updates on this game there and from Kevin on Twitter (KevinRothWx)

Aaron Nola is coming off a rough start, but still top 10 in K-BB%, GB%, and Soft%

Aaron Nola is coming off two rough starts, allowing eight runs to a red hot Toronto offense last time out, but still striking out a quarter of the batters he’d faced. He remains top 10 in baseball K-BB (21% – 10th), GB rate (54.5% – eighth), and weak contact (25.6% – fourth). Add his first strong matchup in a while (Twins 88 wRC+, 14.7 K-BB%) vs RHP and you might have a strong and low owned pitcher that players have been scared off of recently. LHBs have been about average against him (.314 wOBA, 29 Hard%), so two inexpensive bats might be interesting. Robbie Grossman (157 wRC+, .237 ISO vs RHP this season) has cooled down (31 wRC+ last seven days), but costs $3.1K or less on either site and Max Kepler (137 wRC+, .250 ISO vs RHP this season) moves up to 6th for less than $3K. Nola’s three-quarters arm angle eats RHBs up (.274 wOBA, 24.5 Hard%).

Tyler Duffey has a 13.7 K-BB%, facing a Phillies offense with a 71 wRC+ vs RHP

Tyler Duffey no longer has great peripherals after two rough starts (three walks, five strikeouts), but still has an above average 13.7 K-BB% that probably deserves better than a price tag $6.5K or less on either site against the Phillies (77 wRC+ on the road, 71 wRC+ vs RHP, 27 wRC+ last seven days). Duffey has struck out six or more in half of his 10 starts and pitched into the seventh inning four times. He makes an interesting compliment to a higher priced pitcher on two pitcher sites. There’s little to no interest in weak Phillies bats.

Pujols OUT against McHugh, who has a 27.3 K% and 13.9 SwStr% over the last month

Collin McHugh is coming off his best start of the season in St Louis and has a 27.3 K%, 13.9 SwStr% over the last month. He has been plagued by a .359 BABIP all season long despite little in his batted ball profile (18.8 LD%, 28.0 Hard%) that supports it beyond the Houston defense allowing a .307 BABIP. The Angels have just a 15.8 K% vs RHP, lowest in baseball, but are not a particularly potent offense and with Pujols out tonight, McHugh makes a great low priced secondary option on DraftKings for $6.2K. RHBs have a .326 wOBA a bit higher than LHBs since last season and Jefry Marte continues to be a low priced threat (216 wRC+, .364 ISO vs RHP this year) for those in need of corner IF salary relief. Mike Trout (168 wRC+, .283 ISO vs RHP since 2015) is always on our persons of interest list.

Hector Santiago has allowed a .330 wOBA and 35.2 Hard% to RHBs since 2015

Hector Santiago still has a league average strikeout rate, but an ERA with estimators well over four and a half. The Astros stack the lineup with eight RH bats, whom have a .330 wOBA and 35.2 Hard% vs Santiago since last season. Altuve (173 wRC+, .180 ISO vs RHP since 2015) and Springer (153 wRC+, .231 ISO vs RHP since 2015) are top bats and the same price on FanDuel with Springer $800 cheaper on DraftKings. Carlos Correa has strangely struggled against LHP this season (62 wRC+, .034 ISO), but still projects as a top SS bat for less than $4K. In fact, with every other bat less than $3.5K on FanDuel or $4K on DraftKings, the Astros make for a nice stacking opportunity as Gonzalez, Gattis, and Gomez all have a wRC+ around 120 vs RHP this season and have been hitting well over the last week (120+ wRC+, 35+ Hard%).

Patrick Corbin has a 17.3% HR/FB rate while allowing a 39.2% HH% and 1.38 HR/9

Patrick Corbin has actually pitched decent over his past three starts (3.58 xFIP) but heads to Toronto to face the Blue Jays in what might be the worst match up imaginable for him. The Blue Jays lineup is loaded with righties and even the two lefties, Ezequiel Carrera (194 wRC+, .460 wOBA vs LHP) and Michael Saunders (181 wRC+, .442 wOBA, .369 ISO vs LHP), have raked against LHP this season. The Blue Jays are currently implied to 5.3 runs and make for one of the top stacks tonight. Edwin Encarnacion (183 wRC+, .444 wOBA, .383 ISO vs LHP) and Josh Donaldson (149 wRC+, .395 wOBA, .226 ISO vs LHP) are expensive but are integral cogs in any Blue Jays stack in cash or tournaments.