DFS Alerts
Padres have a 117 wRC+, .341 wOBA, .176 ISO vs LHP, receive massive ballpark boost traveling to Great American Ballpark
John Lamb (5.29 SIERA, 14.3% K%, 10.0%), simply put, is not a good pitcher. The Padres typically aren’t a team we go out of our way to target but they currently have a 4.8 implied run total. The Padres are actually a sneaky, above average offense against LHP (117 wRC+, .341 wOBA, .176 ISO) and are heading to Cincinnati to play in the Great American “Smallpark” which is extremely conducive to RH power. If there’s one thing the Padres have, it’s a plethora of right handed batters. The primary target for the Padres is Yangervis Solarte (199 wRC+, .460 wOBA, .310 ISO vs LHP) batting clean-up and reasonably priced on all sites. Other more expensive Padres to target are Matt Kemp (190 wRC+, .447 wOBA, .373 ISO vs LHP), Wil Myers (146 wRC+, .383 wOBA, .234 ISO vs LHP), and Melvin Upton Jr. (123 wRC+, .348 wOBA, .239 ISO vs LHP). We can perhaps even look to Adam Rosales (113 wRC+, .333 wOBA, .200 ISO vs LHP) as a low cost, low owned tournament punt.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Matt Kemp, Wil Myers, Melvin Upton, Adam Rosales, John Lamb
Cespedes OUT of Mets lineup, Loney hits cleanup in Cleveland against Wisler
Matt Wisler has finally had his 38.2 Hard% catch up with as his ERA has flown over four over the last month to meet his estimators. While he’s in a favorable park for a pitcher with with a 0.88 GB/FB, there really are no parks that can protect contact that hard to go with a below average 11.1 K-BB%. With Yoenis Cespedes out tonight, the Mets will use seven LHBs tonight. They have a .375 wOBA against Wisler in his career. All appear usable with perhaps the exception of De Aza (101 wRC+ vs RHP since 2015) on DraftKings for $3.6K, batting 8th. Granderson (142 wRC+, .231 ISO vs RHP since 2015) is the top bat for $4.3K on DraftKings and $3.5K on FanDuel. All other LH bats are $3.6K or less on either site. Asdrubal Cabrera and James Loney, batting 2nd and 3rd, both have a wRC+ above 175 over the last week, as the team’s two hottest bats. Kelly Johnson (96 wRC+ vs RHP since 2015) costs the minimum on FanDuel.
Other tagged players: Asdrubal Cabrera, James Loney, Kelly Johnson
Contreras bats cleanup with Rizzo OUT in Miami against Chen
Wei-Yin Chen has the toughest matchup outside of Colorado against an offense with a double digit walk rate and HR/FB above 14% both on the road and vs LHP. His peripherals (13.6 K-BB%) and ERA estimators (4.22 SIERA, 4.32 xFIP) remain similar to Baltimore, but somehow, he’s allowing more HRs (15.3 HR/FB) in a better league and park. With Rizzo out, rookie catcher Willson Contreras bats cleanup for $3.2K or less against a pitcher whom RHBs have a .349 wOBA and 33.1 Hard% against since last season. Javier Baez (179 wRC+, .213 ISO vs LHP since 2015) is the other value play here for less than $4K, while Zobrist (149 wRC+, .173 ISO vs LHP since 2015) in his new leadoff spot and Bryant (130 wRC+, .255 ISO vs LHP career) are the top, but more expensive bats.
Other tagged players: Javier Baez, Ben Zobrist, Kris Bryant, Wei-Yin Chen Cincinnati has the 3rd highest run projection tonight against a pitcher with an ERA 1.5 runs lower than estimators
Christian Friedrich has just a 7.3 K-BB% and a 7.7 HR/FB that nearly matches, keeping his 3.15 ERA a run and a half below his estimators. Strangely, he’s allowed all three of his HRs at Petco, though avoided long balls in the three hitter’s parks he’s seen this season (Milwaukee, Arizona, and Colrado). The Reds are not a good offense and even worse without Joey Votto, but they do have a 16.7 HR/FB at home and 16.2 HR/FB vs LHP. Friedrich has allowed a .352 wOBA to RHBs since last season and he will face seven tonight. Projected for 4.8 runs tonight (3rd best), Cincinnati is an interesting and mostly affordable stacking option tonight. Zack Cozart (141 wRC+, 276 ISO vs LHP since 2015) is the top and most expensive bat tonight. Eugenio Suarez (140 wRC+, .240 ISO vs LHP since 2015) may be the top value ($3.9K on DK, $2.8K on FD). All RH bats are playable.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Eugenio Suarez, Christian Friedrich Braves have the 2nd lowest run projection tonight (3.43) with a 69 wRC+ at home (77 wRC+ vs RHP)
Matt Harvey has allowed seven runs in 11.2 innings against Atlanta, striking out just nine of 54 batters. His ERA estimators over the last month are exactly the same as they are for the season, a bit above four, as is his 19% strikeout rate, even though his ERA is a run in a half less over the last 30 days. All of this being said, he’s may still be the best option besides Lester tonight, facing one of the worst offenses in baseball (69 wRC+ at home, 77 wRC+ vs RHP). This is even more true on DraftKings for just $8.1K. The Braves have the 2nd lowest run projection tonight (3.43). Freddie Freeman (141 wRC+, .232 ISO vs RHP since 2015) is the only above average bat in this lineup. He has a 225 wRC+ and 42.1 Hard% over the last week. Jace Peterson (92 wRC+ vs RHP since 2015) is nearly average and costs less than $3K in the leadoff spot if salary considerations are an issue.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Freddie Freeman, Jace Peterson Jon Lester has a career best 20.2 K-BB% and is tonight's top pitcher
Jon Lester is tonight’s top pitcher and the top priced pitcher on either site. Most players will and should be using him in lineups, especially on two pitcher sites, where usable options are extremely limited. While his 2.06 ERA is about a run below his estimators, he’s running a 20.2 K-BB% slightly better than his last two All-Star seasons. It’s just his 85.6 LOB% that’s a bit high. He has gone at least six innings with seven strikeouts or more in each of his last five starts. While this is the on pitcher players should avoid tonight, Marcell Ozuna (244 wRC+, .417 ISO vs LHP this season) and Giancarlo Stanton (170 wRC+, .417 ISO vs LHP since 2015) for $3.2K on DraftKings would be defensible contrarian plays on one pitcher sites. Miami has tonight’s lowest run projection (3.26).
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Marcell Ozuna, Giancarlo Stanton Tommy Joseph scratched from Phillies starting lineup
Joseph will miss today’s game due to illness. Andres Blanco moves to first base and Cesar Hernandez will start and play at second base.
As reported by: Jim Salisbury on Twitter Other tagged players: Cesar Hernandez
Ricky Nolasco a top SP option for the afternoon slate
It’s not often you’ll see the words Ricky Nolasco and top SP option in the same sentence together so take a deep breath and enjoy this moment because it might be awhile before it happens again. Nolasco is indeed a top option today in the afternoon slate given the lack of quality SP’s available and his match up against the woeful Phillies. Nolasco has exhibited good control (<4% walk rate) and average K upside (20.5% to both sides of the plate). Rick Porcello is probably the better cash game play at SP but Nolasco is an excellent target in GPP’s. Odubel Herrera and Andres Blanco are the only two Phillies with wOBA’s topping .340 and are secondary options today. Jerad Eickhoff is also worth consideration as a GPP SP option as he has the highest K upside (23.8% against RH bats) going today. He is vulnerable, however, and the Twins are worth targeting as a result. Robbie Grossman, Brian Dozier, and Max Kepler are your top options there. Eduardo Nunez has the afternoon off.
As reported by: Todd Zolecki on Twitter Other tagged players: Odubel Herrera, Robbie Grossman Giants-Pirates game unappealing from a DFS perspective
Albert Suarez and Jon Niese are two pitchers that are very similar – they don’t strike many batters out and have high ground ball rates. This makes both SP’s unusable for DFS and with more appealing options in other games, targeting hitters in this game isn’t the optimal play. Niese has struggled this season with the long ball (1.31 HR/9 vs LH bats and 2.07 HR/9 vs RH bats) so there is some merit to looking at Giants bats, especially from the right handed side of the plate. The Giants have several RH cheap options in the middle of the lineup – Mac Williamson batting third, Trevor Brown batting fifth, and Ramiro Pena batting sixth. Buster Posey bats clean up and is the obvious top choice from that lineup today. Suarez has had his struggles against LH bats this season (.358 wOBA 1.29 HR/9 allowed) making Gregory Polanco and Matt Joyce secondary options today. Andrew McCutchen and Starling Marte are both not playing today for the Pirates.
As reported by: Adam Berry on Twitter Other tagged players: Gregory Polanco Red Sox set to feast off of James Shields today
It’s not often you see a team projected to score nearly 6 1/2 runs in a game that is not at Coors Field but that’s precisely what we have today as James Shields takes the mound for the White Sox in Boston. The Red Sox bats will obviously be super popular but on a small four game slate you are going to want some exposure to them. For the season, Shields has a wOBA topping .364 and a HR/9 of >1.5 to both sides of the plate. The entire Red Sox lineup outside of #8 hitter, Christian Vasquez, are in play with David Ortiz and his near .500 wOBA against RHP the top play and Jackie Bradley not too far behind him as the other top option. Marco Hernandez batting ninth can get you some cheap exposure as well. On a slate lacking any stellar pitching options, Rick Porcello becomes one of the top choices almost by default. That said, he has struggled greatly against RH bats this season (.349 wOBA, 1.91 HR/9) and White Sox bats are worth a look, and a game stack is also something to consider. Timothy Anderson, Jose Abreu, Todd Frazier, and Brett Lawrie are the bats to target there.
As reported by: Colleen Kane on Twitter Other tagged players: James Shields, Tim Anderson, Jackie Bradley Should be a high scoring game in Detroit today
Vegas has given the Seattle-Detroit game a run total of 10 with Seattle bringing rookie Adrian Sampson to the mound and Detroit countering with Daniel Norris. Sampson was ineffective in his first start against Boston giving up 8 hits, 4 runs, and 2 homers in under 5 innings of work. Norris has had great K upside in the minors, especially against lefties, but that has not translated well into his major league career as he has <20% K rate to both sides of the plate and has actually allowed a staggering .356 wOBA to LH bats over his short major league career including a 2.50 HR/9 rate. Needless to say, we’ll want to target bats from both sides. Nelson Cruz and Franklin Gutierrez are the obvious targets for the Mariners as both have wOBA’s of .400+ against LHP. Given Norris’s struggles against LH bats, Robinson Cano and Kyle Seager could make for nice contrarian plays. Chris Iannetta (.396 wOBA vs LHP) is an excellent value option at catcher. Ketel Marte and Dae-Ho Lee are also in play as secondary options. For the Tigers, Miguel Cabrera and his .452 wOBA and .296 ISO against RHP is the clear top option. Steven Moya is coming off a big game and is also in play with his .407 wOBA and .313 ISO. Others to consider from the Tigers are Ian Kinsler, Nick Castellanos, and Justin Upton.
As reported by: Seattle Mariners official Twitter feed Other tagged players: Nelson Cruz, Steven Moya Joe Ross has a .499 xFIP, 16.7% K%, 11.3% BB% vs LHB, allows .341 wOBA
Joe Ross is typically a SP we want to roster against right-handed heavy lineups as he has extreme platoon splits. The Los Angeles Dodgers (92 wRC+, .305 wOBA) are pretty average versus RHP but have been come more alive lately (110 wRC+, .334 wOBA, .200 ISO the last 7 days). This means we can look to pretty much every lefty in the Dodgers lineup as a legit option but Corey Seager (137 wRC+, .371 wOBA, .218 ISO vs RHP), Joc Pederson (132 wRC+, .363 wOBA, .270 ISO vs RHP), and Chase Utley (117 wRC+, .341 wOBA) are clear targets. A lower owned Dodgers right handed batter that could pay off in tournaments would be Trayce Thompson (130 wRC+, .359 wOBA, .242 ISO vs RHP).
Other tagged players: Joc Pederson, Chase Utley, Trayce Thompson, Joe Ross Julio Urias has struck out 22 of his last 57 batters
Julio Urias has as much upside as any other arm tonight, striking out 22 of his last 57 batters, at a much lower cost. He may be tonight’s top pitcher if Dave Roberts allows him to go the 90 to 100 pitches he quoted before pulling him after 85 pitches in his last start. That five innings was still more than enough to cover his price, which has since dropped to $7.2K or less. The Nationals are a strong team vs LHP (115 wRC+, 16.8 HR/FB), but this is a pitcher’s park and they haven’t done much against two LHPs the last two nights (although one of them was Kershaw). On a night where every arm carries fair amount of risk, Urias may be the top value out there. RHBs do have a .362 wOBA and 38.6 Hard% against Urias so far, making Jayson Werth (191 wRC+, .284 ISO vs LHP this season) the strongest play for the Nationals here for less than $4K. He has a 47.6 Hard% over the last week.
As reported by: ESPN Other tagged players: Jayson Werth Twins implied total has increased to 5.1 runs
Adam Morgan (4.30 SIERA, 18.9% K%, 5.5% BB%) admittedly hasn’t pitched as poorly as his 6.49 ERA might reflect. While Morgan could actually make for a risky SP tournament flier against the weak Minnesota Twins offense (89 wRC+, 24.4% K% vs LHP), the preferred route would be to target a few Twins batters with HR upside to take advantage of Morgan and his 42.2% FB% and 38.4% Hard% allowed. The top option for the Twins is Robbie Grossman (186 wRC+, .446 wOBA, .282 ISO vs LHP) batting third and priced at only $3.5K on DraftKings. The other Twins bats to consider are Brian Dozier (170 wRC+, .424 wOBA, .244 ISO vs LHP) and Eduardo Nunez (169 wRC+, .422 wOBA, .333 ISO vs LHP) as they provide the HR and steal upside needed in cash and especially tournaments.
Other tagged players: Brian Dozier, Eduardo Nunez, Adam Morgan Profar and Desmond OUT vs Straily in Texas
Dan Straily has maintained a strikeout rate above 21% over the last month, though his SwStr rate has dropped to 8.3%. His double digit walk rate and 0.89 GB/FB should be cause for concern tonight even with an average rate of hard contact this year (29.8 Hard%). Texas is one of the more positive run environments in baseball with this lineup projected for more than five runs tonight (2nd best on the board). Straily has shown little platoon split with LHBs and RHBs both right around a .300 wOBA against him since last season with his 11 HRs very evenly split. Shin Soo Choo (140 wRC+, .200 ISO vs RHP since 2015) has yet to get on track this season, but is a strong career hitter vs RHP and costs $3.5K or less on either site out of the leadoff spot. He’s a top OF bat tonight. Rougned Odor (99 wRC+, .218 ISO vs RHP since 2015) moves back into the 2nd spot with Desmond out, but is a bit more pricey. Nomar Mazarra (125 wRC+, .199 ISO vs RHP) has been a strong bat out of the 3rd hole, but has just a 1 wRC+ with a 19.2 Hard% over the last week. The middle three (Beltre, Fielder, Rua) have all been below average bats vs RHP this year, though fairly inexpensive for the most part.
Other tagged players: Nomar Mazara, Rougned Odor, Adrian Beltre, Ryan Rua, Prince Fielder, Dan Straily