DFS Alerts

Stephen Strasburg scratched Monday

Strasburg has been scratched due to an upper back strain. Yusmiero Petit will start in his place, which bumps all of the Dodgers bats up considerably. They are now a very sneaky stack on late swap sites.

Kershaw has a 32.3 K-BB% at home since last season and leads the majors with a 16.4 SwStr% in 2016

Clayton Kershaw is, as always, tonight’s top pitcher. He has a 32.3 K-BB% at home since last season. He leads the majors in K-BB overall this year at 32.6% with nobody else above 30% and his 16.4 SwStr% is the only one above 15.1%. He may eventually have a mediocre game, but using batters against him is a losing proposition. Players who find a way to make Kershaw work in their lineups are generally happier DFS players.

David Wolter (@DavidWolter1) brings us a mostly clean forecast tonight. Games in Detroit, Cleveland, and Pittsburgh run a small risk of delay, though shouldn’t be overly concerning. You can find his full forecast on our Weather Page linked below.

Strasburg has seven or more strikeouts in 12 of his last 13 starts

Stephen Strasburg is having the best season of his career with at least six innings in 13 of 14 starts this year and seven strikeouts or more in 12 of 13 since his first start. While his opponent is the clear top pitcher overall anytime he’s on the mound, Strasburg could stake a claim for tonight’s top value spot for $2.2K less on FanDuel. Over on DraftKings, where he’s just $1K less than Kershaw, players are better off paying up if they can find a way, but shouldn’t avoid him at that higher price as he’s still the 2nd best pitcher tonight and one of the more dominant pitchers in the league this year. The interest in Dodger bats are low, though you’ll rarely see Corey Seager (146 wRC+, .224 ISO vs RHP career) at less than $3.5K and Strasburg does have a reverse platoon split (.303 wOBA vs RHBs since 2015), which fits with a couple of RH Dodger bats in Justin Turner (134 wR+, .197 ISO vs RHP since 2015), who is suddenly red hot (283 wRC+, 54.2 Hard% last seven days) and Trayce Thompson (133 wRC+, .225 ISO vs RHP since 2015) for around $2.5K batting 5th. Strasburg has allowed 10 HRs this season.

Lackey has a career high 27.1 K% and has struck out 20 of 54 Cardinals faced this year

John Lackey has is having the best season of his career with a his best strikeout rate (27.1%) at age 37, but also a career low .255 BABIP. He’s struck out 20 of 54 Cardinals this season, allowing just three runs in 14 innings, but that does not change the fact that this St Louis offense has a 117 wRC+ on the road and 119 wRC+ vs RHP, both second best in baseball. While Lackey may have earned the benefit of the doubt for less than $10K on FanDuel with remarkable consistency this season, he’s a tougher sell for nearly $12K on DraftKings against one of the top offenses in the league. Matt Carpenter (160 wRC+, .262 ISO vs RHP since 2015) remains one of tonight’s top bats against a pitcher with a .313 wOBA vs RHP for less than $4.5K. He has a 256 wRC+ and 50 Hard% over the last week

Derek Holland owns a poor 4.7 K-BB%, 5.78 xFIP vs. RH bats this season

It’s going to be a hot on in Arlington tonight, and we should expect the Orioles RH bats to have productive days at the plate against LH Derek Holland. The Rangers lefty has really struggled with walks this season (4.7 K-BB% vs. RHs) which has continually put him in tough spots to this point, and it doesn’t help that he’s also having issues with the long ball (1.5 HR/9 vs. RHs). Mark Trumbo is the top play on the Baltimore side with a few others very close behind. The Orioles clean-up hitter owns an elite .361 ISO against LHP, and that number actually jumps to .533 on the road, although the sample size is very small there. Trumbo’s 40.9 hard% goes right along with his power potential and even with Manny Machado out of the Orioles lineup, they still boast plenty of talent from the right side. Adam Jones is the other lefty masher in this lineup, although his numbers against LHs haven’t been great this season. If he maintains his 40.0 hard% against LHs, expect his .233 BABIP to rise quickly. Joey Rickard, Matt Wieters and J.J. Hardy are elite value plays in this spot, and they’re even more valuable given the high-end pitching you’ll likely want to spend up for.

LHBs have just a .278 wOBA vs Kevin Gausman since last season

Kevin Gausman was hammered in his last start and has struck out just seven of his last 46 batters, but realizing his last two outings were in Boston and Toronto, he may still offer some value as a near punt play for $5.6K on DraftKings next to a higher priced pitcher. Texas isn’t an easy matchup, but the park is worse than the offense’s bite (91 wRC+ vs RHP). While that’s quite surprising for an offense that leans heavily left-handed, it plays right into Gausman’s hands as pitcher with a large reverse platoon split since last season (.278 wOBA vs LHBs, .362 wOBA vs RHBs) though he’s held batters from both sides to a hard hit rate below 30%. Ian Desmond (110 wRC+, .181 ISO vs RHP this season) might be the most potent bat in this situation, but costs more than $5K on DraftKings. Other league average bats for the Rangers have been hot this week (Odor 207 wRC+, 73.9 Hard%) so this may be a spot to consider fading if Gausman isn’t needed in that secondary pitching slot.

Carlos Gonzalez (146 wRC+, .303 ISO vs RHP since 2015) has a 227 wRC+ over the last week

Paul Clemens last pitched 25 innings for the Astros back in 2014 with 43 of his career 48 major league outings coming out of the bullpen, nor has he done anything special at AAA this season (4.30 ERA, 4.13 FIP, 13.0 K-BB%) in 14 starts to merit any new optimism at 28 years old. The one thing in his favor is a great matchup against a poor road offense (15.2 K-BB%) at the minimum cost on DraftKings, where you might see some pairing him with Kershaw or Strasburg. Carlos Gonzalez (146 wRC+, .303 ISO vs RHP since 2015) has a 227 wRC+ over the last week and might make some sense for less than $4K on DraftKings. Trevor Story (108 wRC+, .292 ISO vs RHP) costs less than $3K on FanDuel as well, but most other Colorado bats are priced nearly as if they’re playing at Coors.

Mariners take on Mike Pelfrey and his 5.37 SIERA in Detroit

The Mariners will be among the most popular targets of the day with a team total over five, and for good reason. Robinson Cano is the best of the bunch with a .472 wOBA, .345 ISO and 38.2 hard% against RHP on the road, and it doesn’t hurt his case that there isn’t a whole lot to like at the cheap end of the 2B pool. Mike Pelfrey has allowed a .386 wOBA to LH bats so far this season, and we know by now that he’s a pitcher we’ll want to target regularly when he takes the hill. Cano is far and away the top option at 2B and if you have the cap space to afford him, he’s a strong option in any format. Kyle Seager is not far behind Cano with a .405 wOBA, .259 ISO and 43.6 hard% against RHP, numbers that make his current price tag seem like a slight bargain. Considering the strength of the bats in front of him (Cano and Cruz), expect Seager to see at least an at bat or two with runners in scoring position. He’s also a top target in any format. Don’t sleep on the RH bats here.. Mike Pelfrey owns an xFIP over 5.00 against both right and left-handed bats, and he doesn’t do a terribly good job of keeping the ball in the yard (10 HRs allowed in just over 70 IP). I can definitely understand fading the Mariners in GPPs given that they’ll carry high ownership percentages, but don’t get cute in cash games. Cruz (.362 wOBA, .182 ISO vs. RHP) is the top target here with Leonys Martin (.364 wOBA, .223 ISO) close behind. Seth Smith (.355 wOBA, .156 ISO) and Adam Lind (.285 wOBA, .183 ISO) are also fine targets here, although Smith is a bit too pricey on FanDuel while his DraftKings price ($3,900) is more reasonable. The opposite can be said for Lind, who is a stronger play at $2,800 over at FanDuel.

LHBs have a .341 wOBA and 37.1 Hard% vs Chacin since last season

Aside from a single outing with 10 strikeouts, Jhoulys Chacin has failed to strike out more than four in eight of his other nine most recent starts. He has effectively kept the ball on the ground (51.4%) and may find a few more strikeouts against Houston (24.8 K% vs RHP), but they otherwise get on base (9.7 BB% vs RHP) and mash RHPs (34.5 Hard%) at home (34.3 Hard%). He’s held RHBs to a wOBA just below .300 since last season, but Carlos Correa (128 wRC+, .208 ISO career vs RHPs) is still probably the top SS tonight for around $4K. LHBs have pounded him for a .341 wOBA and 37.1 Hard% since 2015, making Colby Rasmus (105 wRC+, .218 ISO vs RHP since 2015) and Luis Valbuena (116 wRC+, .216 ISO vs RHP since 2015) interesting lower priced plays.

Red Sox with a team total just under six, face Miguel Gonzalez in Fenway

As usual, the Red Sox are one of the best team targets of the evening, with several of their bats coming in as top plays in any format. It’s not all that easy to pay a premium for bats on this slate, but Ortiz is one of the few that are worth it tonight. Why is this guy retiring again? He owns an elite .489 wOBA, .403 ISO, 47.5 hard% against RHP, numbers that are borderline unbelievable considering The Large Father is 40 years old. Those numbers jump up when he’s facing a RH at home (.558 wOBA, .465 ISO, 47.1 hard%), so you can see why he’s worth his hefty price tag across the industry. Xander Bogaerts slots into the ever-important three-hole right in front of David Ortiz, so you know he’ll get pitches to hit with Papi on deck. Bogaerts is more effective against LHP, but his numbers against RHP are nothing to sneeze at (.386 wOBA, .157 ISO) and it’s not like Miguel Gonzalez is capable of consistently shutting down RH bats. Gonzalez owned a 4.42 xFIP against RH bats last season including a 1.30 HR/9 rate. Along with the two names listed above, Mookie Betts (.385 wOBA, .233 ISO vs. RHP) and Jackie Bradley (.425 wOBA, .315 ISO) are both elite targets in their own right. The entire lineup here is in play, although it’s worth noting that Dustin Pedroia is out of the lineup. He’ll be replaced by Marco Hernandez, who will bat 9th.

Tomlin has a large reverse platoon split (.337 wOBA vs RHBs) and Forsythe costs less than $4K

Josh Tomlin is missing bats at a well below league average rate this season and 20% of his runs have been unearned, keeping his ERA (3.27) a run below his estimators. The Rays strike out a ton (25.2% vs RHP), but it probably still doesn’t cover a $9K price tag. He has a major reverse platoon split since last season (.337 wOBA, 38.0 Hard% vs RHBs) making leadoff man Logan Forsythe (129 wRC+, .164 ISO vs RHP this season) a great Second Base value for less than $4K tonight. Evan Longoria (135 wRC+, .284 ISO vs RHP this season) is expensive, but Steve Pearce (131 wRC+, .164 ISO vs RHP this season) costs less than $3K on FanDuel.

Miguel Cabrera has a 174 wRC+ and .275 ISO vs RHP this season

Nate Karns doesn’t have a problem missing bats (24.5 K%, 10.3 SwStr%), but does have issues finding the plate sometimes with his 10.8 BB% keeping him to five innings or less in five of his last six starts. It’s difficult to pay more than $7K for a five inning pitcher unless the performance is expected to be elite while he’s in there. RHBs (.321 wOBA, 35.6 Hard%) have hit him harder than LHBs (.299 wOBA, 30.6 Hard%) since last season, which plays right into Miguel Cabrera’s hands (174 wRC+, .275 ISO vs RHP this season). He has a 208 wRC+ over the last week and is a reasonable $4.5K on DraftKings. The other bat players who are paying up for pitching might want to look at is Steven Moya, who is left-handed and bats 7th, but has a 119 wRC+ and .227 ISO vs RHP this season with a 191 wRC+ over the last week for less than $2.5K.

Fister has dominated RHBs (58.9 GB%, -5.5 Hard-Soft%), but LHBs have crushed him (38.6 GB%, 21.1 Hard-Soft%)

Doug Fister has just a 5.5 SwStr% this season, but has a 58.9 GB% and -5.5 Hard-Soft% vs RHBs. His ERA still runs well below his peripherals due to a likely unsustainable 81.9 LOB% and LHBs have hammered him (38.6 GB%, 21.1 Hard-Soft%). They have a .342 wOBA against him since last season, making Kole Calhoun (116 wRC+, .172 ISO vs RHP since 2015) the most interesting bat in this lineup for less than $4K. Mike Trout (170 wRC+, .285 ISO vs RHP since 2015) is a matchup proof bat, but carries a price tag of at least $4.5K on either site.

Zobrist (149 wRC+ vs LHP since 2015) leads off with Fowler OUT against struggling Garcia

Jaime Garcia has lost his ability to miss bats (10.1 K%, 5.1 SwStr% last 30 days) with a hard contact rate above one-third in five of six starts after being below 30% in six of his first seven starts. He is still generating ground balls at an elite rate though (58.1% – 3rd in MLB this season). That makes things difficult here as players can’t trust him and there’s not a enough contact in the air to pay up for expensive Cubs bats here when most players are using an expensive pitcher. Javier Baez (177 wRC+, .220 ISO vs LHP since 2015) might some sense as a SS option for less than $4K on DraftKings or $3K on FanDuel. Leadoff man Ben Zobrist (149 wRC+, .177 ISO vs LHP since 2015) may be affordable for $3.3K on FanDuel. Star catching prospect Willson Contreras homered in his first major league plate appearance, had a 177 wRC+ at AAA this season, and costs the minimum or close to it tonight. Batting 5th, he should be in most lineups with a high priced pitcher.