DFS Alerts

Bumgarner's estimators are well above his 1.91 ERA, but still very strong

Madison Bumgarner’s ERA estimators are well above a career low 1.91 ERA (and a bit above his career average too) due mostly to an unsustainable 84.6 LOB%, but even if we don’t expect him to continue to be this good, he has gone at least six innings, and often more, in each of his last 11 starts and has a 21.3 K-BB%. The strikeouts have been a bit up and down and he’s facing a good offense (118 wRC+ at home, 116 wRC+ vs LHP), but a fairly cold one (26.6 K-BB% last seven days) in a great park for LH pitchers. He may not be tonight’s top points per dollar pick, but players should do fine with him in their lineups tonight. None of the opposing bats are worth much attention with Bumgarner on the mound, but an interesting dynamic occurs if paying up for another of the top pitchers because Jordy Mercer (159 wRC+, .245 ISO vs LHP this season) bats leadoff for much less than $3K on either site and David Freese (183 wRC+, .222 ISO vs LHP this season) is in the cleanup spot for a similar cost, while Jung-Ho Kang (171 wRC+, .382 ISO vs LHP this season) costs just $2.3K on FanDuel. These may be the types of bats players are going to need to take a chance on if using Kershaw tonight.

Steven Wright's knuckleball may explain a .251 BABIP, but probably not his 4.8 HR/FB

Steven Wright is a difficult pitcher to decipher due to the knuckleball that doesn’t conform to most league standards and norms when it comes to advanced stats. Even if we give him credit for his .251 BABIP, the pitch shouldn’t help him sustain a sub-five HR/FB (4.8). He has given players plenty of innings with a league average strikeout rate backed up by a well above average SwStr% and that’s worth something and maybe even $9.4K on FanDuel if you expect him to be in line for a win, but it may be a situation to fade on DraftKings for over $11K. Marginal White Sox bats escape our attention tonight, as Wright has held batters from both sides to a wOBA below .300 since last season, though RHBs to have a 35% hard hit rate.

Smyly rebounded, striking out 12 of 24 Mariners in his last start, costs less than $7 on DraftKings

If paying up for a top of the line arm tonight, players are going to need to complement with a much lower priced one on two pitcher sites and Drew Smyly for just $6.7K on DraftKings is likely to be the most popular of those and for good reason. He struck out 12 of 24 Mariners in his last start and 19 of his last 50 overall in somewhat of a rebound after a rough May. His 21.8 K-BB% is an elite number this season, but HRs (15) have been a major issue and a major reason for his price drop and struggles. He has faced several tough lineups during this stretch though and while Cleveland is one of the best home offenses in baseball (124 wRC+, 8.9 K-BB%), they struggle a bit vs LHP (14.1 K-BB%, 8.8 HR/FB) with just three RH bats hitting them well this season. Smyly has to be very seriously considered if playing on DraftKings tonight. If not using him, those three RH bats may be worth a look. Rajai Davis (125 wRC+, .179 ISO vs LHP this season) has a 205 wRC+ last seven days. Francisco Lindor (130 wRC+, .140 ISO vs LHP this season) is usually a strong SS option. Mike Napoli (107 wRC+, .214 ISO vs LHP this season) is the most affordable of the three on FanDuel ($2.9K).

Pagan bats leadoff with Span and Duffy OUT in Pittsburgh vs LH Locke

Jeff Locke has allowed a wOBA just above .330 to batters from both sides of the plate since last season, though RHBs have hit the ball much harder (30.9 Hard%) than LHBs (17.7 Hard%). Despite that, the Giants are going with a mostly left-handed lineup in a park that kills RH power. Angel Pagan (108 wRC+ vs LHP this season) bats leadoff and may be a better value for $2.6K on FanDuel tonight, as both Denard Span and Matt Duffy are OUT. Buster Posey (142 wRC+, .186 ISO vs LHP since 2015) is the top bat in this lineup, but may be unaffordable if paying up for pitching. Ramiro Pena is your punt play, eligible at 2B, 3B, and or SS depending on your site of choice for just $2.2K batting 6th.

Yelich OUT against lefty de la Rosa at home

Jorge de la Rosa had a high walk rate (9.8%) and has allowed a lot of hard contact (35.0%). Estimators three runs below his ERA (7.61) are still above four, but the one thing he has been able to do throughout his career is miss bats at around a league average rate (19.4 K% career, 23.0% this year). The Marlins have an 88 wRC+ at home and 15.6 K-BB% vs LHP. On the road, in a not terrible spot, de la Rosa could serve as a reasonable near punt, who’s likely to be ignored by most other players, in secondary spot on two pitcher sites if paying up for one of the big three tonight. If not using him or on one pitcher sites, RHBs have a .345 wOBA with a 33% hard hit rate since last season, though we have to factor Coors into that. Giancarlo Stanton (109 wRC+, .244 ISO vs LHP this season) has started to pick up the pace (179 wRC+ last seven days) and is still very affordably priced tonight. Marcell Ozuna (223 wRC+, .339 ISO vs LHP this season) may be the top bat here. The cheap play (because you’ll probably need several tonight) is Chris Johnson. He hasn’t been good (93 wRC+ vs LHP this season), but he is batting 5th and has a 57.1 Hard% over the last week for less than $3K.

Diamondbacks take on Phillies in only afternoon game; Goldschmidt sitting

Vegas expects the Arizona-Philadelphia game to be a close high-scoring affair with a run total of nine runs. Arizona has opted to give some of their key players the day off as Paul Goldschmidt, Peter O’Brien, and Michael Bourn are all sitting. The Phillies are bringing a normal lineup against the recently activated Shelby Miller and Odubel Herrera (.390 wOBA vs RHP) is the top target for them if you’re playing the all day slate. No one else in the lineup has a wOBA topping .320 against RHP so there is merit in giving Miller a shot as a GPP sleeper and also at stacking Phillies in what should be an under-owned stack given that it is Miller’s first start in some time. For the Diamondbacks, they face Jeremy Hellickson and Jake Lamb is the top target for them with his .418 wOBA and .294 ISO against RHP. Socrates Brito is also worth a look as a minimum priced punt play.

Chris Coghlan leading off, facing a young right-handed pitcher in Chicago

Chris Coghlan has not been as good this year as he was last year, but he does face a RHP tonight. His wRC+ is still a meager 40 against RHP in 2016, but he does still boast a 0.139 ISO. On late swap sites, Coghlan is a value option that offers home run upside and will be leading off for a productive offense against a young pitcher, Jameson Taillon, who will be pitching on the road.

Do not ignore Justin Turner today just because he is facing a right-handed pitcher

Turner will be facing a pitcher without handedness splits, Matt Garza. In 2015, Garza had an xFIP of 4.21 against RHBs, compared to 4.81 against LHBs. Turner on the other hand, has displayed more power against RHP himself, possessing an ISO of 0.181 versus RHP this year.

Carlos Carrasco faces a weak hitting White Sox team

Carlos Carrasco faces the White Sox today, a team with a wRC+ of 95 over the last week. The White Sox have a strike out percentage of 23% over that same time period, and have proven to struggle against RHP, possessing a wRC+ on the season of 84 against right-handed pitching. Carrasco makes for a solid pivot from Jacob deGrom in large field GPPs.

Marwin Gonzalez batting second for Houston, facing Brandon Finnegan

Marwin Gonzalez has been swinging it well lately, sporting a wRC+ of 136 over the last week. Today he faces Brandon Finnegan, a LHP who has proven he can give up production to RHBs. Finnegan has a fly ball percentage of 37% versus RHBs on the season, leading to a 1.48 HR/9. They will play at Minute Maid Park today, the 8th most optimal park for RHBs according to the RotoGrinders Ballpark Factors tool.

Jordan Zimmerman worth targeting today with Royals hitters

Jordan Zimmerman is one of the more expensive options today, but do not be fooled. Zimmerman is only striking out 11% of batters over the last few weeks and is surrendering a fly ball percentage over 45%, along with an xFIP well over 5.57 over that time period. Eric Hosmerand Salvador Perez are both quality plays, sporting wRC+ totals versus RHPs of 164 and 149, respectively. Hosmer makes for a high floor play, striking out only 17% of the time this year in at-bats versus right-handed pitching.

David Wolter highlights good weather for baseball again today, listing the temperatures conducive for hitting from around the league. Check them out here: https://rotogrinders.com/weather/mlb

Today will test Chris Tillman's success against RHBs as he faces Encarnacion and the Blue Jays

In 2015, Tillman finished the year with an xFIP over 4.50 to both LHBs and RHBs. He struggled even more with home runs allowed against RHBs, surrendering 1.75 HR/9, mostly due to a 35% FB% and a 17% HR/FB ratio. This year, Tillman has reduced his xFIP vs. RHB to 3.57 and his HR/9 allowed to RHB to 0.84. Much of this regression can be attributed to his HR/FB vs. RHBs coming down near league average, sitting at 11.4%. In addition to this regression, Tillman is striking out RHBs over 20% of the time, which is a significant improvement over his 15% K rate last year. Playing right-handed Blue Jays is not as good of a strategy as it would have been in 2015, so play Blue Jays knowing they will be facing an improved Chris Tillman.

Martin Perez continues to be targeted by DFS hitters and continues to avoid blowups

Perez does have a high xFIP against LHBs and RHBs, 4.13 and 4.90, respectively. He only strikes out right-handed bats 11% of the time! Still, as many DFS players have learned, his 0.80 HR/9 allowed to righties may not be a fluke, since Perez does boast a respectable 27.3% fly ball percentage vs. LHBs, and an even better 25% fly ball percentage against RHBs. After considering his hard contact percentages, 15% to LHBs and 35% to RHBs, it becomes less mysterious how Perez has been avoiding the big blowups. If you get carried away playing Cardinals today, at least know it may be a less appealing strategy than it appears on the surface.

Splits 101: Know your switch-hitters (Kendrys Morales)

Knowing your splits is a way to get a leg up on 85% of the DFS competition. Matt Boyd has not been good this year, posting a 5.06 xFIP agaisnt right-handed batters and allowing a 1.99 HR/9. This data is no secret and DFS players will most likely flock to Lorenzo Cain and Salvador Perez, but savvy players will also pay attention to Kendrys Morales. Morales is a switch hitter and has this year shown he can hit with power as a RHB, exhibiting an ISO of 0.220 as a LHB against right-handed pitching. A Royals stack may very well win a GPP tonight, but including Morales is a move reserved for the “sharps.”