DFS Alerts
Ivan Nova has a career 13.5 HR/FB to LHBs at Yankee Stadium
Colorado bats generally aren’t viable on the road, but the short RF porch against a pitcher with a 21.4 HR/FB this season might be an exception. Nova has had a HR/FB above 13% in four of the last five and a 13.5 HR/FB career vs LHBs at Yankee Stadium. Carlos Gonzalez (146 wRC+, .301 ISO vs RHP since 2015) is one of tonight’s top OF bats, but a costly one. Charlie Blackmon (112 wRC+, .199 ISO vs RHP this season) is less of a hitter, but more affordable. Powerful RH bats like Arenado (128 wRC+, .306 ISO vs RHP since 2015) and Story (114 wRC+, .304 ISO vs RHP) don’t have to be abandoned either against a pitcher with a 32 Hard% and wOBA above .325 allowed to batters from both sides since last season.
Other tagged players: Charlie Blackmon, Nolan Arenado, Trevor Story, Ivan Nova
Orioles have one of tonight's highest run projections (5.8) even without Machado
Manny Machado continues to serve his suspension, but that shouldn’t slow down this lineup projected essentially tied for the top run projection tonight (5.8) against minimum priced starter Luis Perdomo (8.79 ERA, 5.34 FIP, 16.3 K%, 21.9 HR/FB in 42 innings). RHBs have hammered Perdomo for a .454 wOBA, but LHBs have hit him well too (.385 wOBA). Baltimore bats are expensive, but some of the top bats available tonight. The top six all have a wRC+ above 100 vs RHP this season with only Kim (137 wRC+, .089 ISO) carrying an ISO below .200. Chris Davis (129 wRC+, .256 ISO vs RHP this season) is the top bat, while Jonathan Schoop (115 wRC+, .217 ISO vs RHP this season) might be the hottest (205 wRC+ last seven days). This lineup is stackable in any way that fits tonight.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Hyun-Soo Kim, Jonathan Schoop, Luis Perdomo Votto OUT of lineup in Texas against Colby Lewis (37.4 Hard% in 2016)
Colby Lewis carried a no-hitter into the 9th in his last start in Oakland. He struck out four of 30 batters with just 8% weak contact in that game and now has a .234 BABIP and 83.3 LOB% for the season. He has a nice matchup against a Votto-less Reds lineup, but this offense still has some power in Adam Duvall (134 wRC+, .361 ISO vs RHP since 2015) and Jay Bruce (135 wRC+, .315 ISO vs RHP this season). Zack Cozart (101 wRC+, .186 ISO vs RHP this season) adds some pop as an inexpensive SS out of the leadoff spot. Lewis has allowed a 37.4% hard hit rate this season with 12 HRs as an extreme fly ball pitcher (0.83 GB/FB) in one of the more hitter friendly parks in the league.
Other tagged players: Jay Bruce, Zack Cozart, Colby Lewis Marco Estrada has a league average 12.2 K-BB%, but a 188 BABIP and 81.9 LOB%
Marco Estrada has a 22.1 K% that’s a bit above average, but has built his season on a .188 BABIP and 81.9 LOB%. You’re paying over $11K on DraftKings for BABIP suppression and a league average 12.2 K-BB%. He’s shown some BABIP suppression skills, but is still 65 points off his career rate. While not expressly looking to attack him either, a few Arizona bats might be priced a bit low on DraftKings, including Chris Herrmann (123 wRC+, .261 ISO vs RHP this season) for less than $3.5K in the 2nd spot, Paul Goldschmidt (151 wRC+, .241 ISO vs RHP since 2015) at $4.2K (but higher on FanDuel), and Jake Lamb (156 wRC+, .297 ISO vs RHP this season) for $4K.
Other tagged players: Paul Goldschmidt, Chris Herrmann Francisco Lindor has a .375 wOBA and 138 wRC+ vs LHP this season
Blake Snell is a highly touted prospect in the Tampa Rays farm system but hasn’t yet seen his minor league success transition to the Majors. This is reflected in an obscene 5.5% SwStr% and a 10.0% BB% through two Major League starts. Although the sample size is extremely limited, it’s impossible for Snell to maintain a 22.5% K% unless he is able to substantially improve his low SwStr%. This means we can feel comfortable targeting a few Cleveland Indians righties. Francisco Lindor (.375 wOBA and 138 wRC+ vs LHP) is easily the top target batting third and for a reasonable $4.1K price tag on Draftkings. We can also look to Mike Napoli (.205 ISO vs LHP) for some power upside along with the scorching-hot Juan Uribe, who has homered in 3 straight games.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Mike Napoli, Juan Uribe, Blake Snell
James Paxton has a 23.0 K-BB% and the 2nd hardest fastball (97.1 mph) among starters
James Paxton has an elite 23.0 K-BB% through four starts, throwing harder than every starter not named Syndergaard. Unfortunately, the contact that is being made is generally hit very hard (26.6 LD%, 17.6 HR/FB, 7.7 Soft%), though half of his 14 runs have been unearned and his .403 BABIP not much affecting his ERA. He brings a nice bit of upside, but also quite a bit of risk in the $7K to $8K range. Although not present this season, he actually has held RHBs to a wOBA 90 points less than LHBs in his career (.273 vs .363), so this could work to his advantage. For the top of the lineup, Kinser, Maybin, and Martinez, all have a wRC+ above 160 vs LHP this season. Kinsler and Martinez are more expensive, but add an ISO above .200. Miguel Cabrera hasn’t been as strong (46 wRC+, .078 ISO vs LHP), but has a 235 wRC+ and 41.7 Hard% over the last week.
Other tagged players: Ian Kinsler, Cameron Maybin, Victor Martinez, Miguel Cabrera Brandon Belt has hammered RHP (146 wRC+ since 2015) and has a 248 wRC+ over the last week
Wifredo is a 26 year old rookie with a 2.0 K-BB% in 12.1 major league innings, all in relief. He has had below average strikeout rates throughout the minors, spending about half his time relieving until last season. We don’t have much information, but LHBs have a 40.0 Hard% in his small sample of major league work so far. Brandon Belt (146 wRC+, .203 ISO vs RHP since 2015) might be the only play in an expensive lineup against an unknown pitcher in a difficult run environment. The park plays fairly even for RH power though, and Belt has a .248 wOBA and 35.7 Hard% over the last week.
Other tagged players: Wilfredo Boscan Ian Kennedy has allowed eight HRs over his last three starts, Mets have a 14.9 HR/FB vs RHP
Ian Kennedy is in a low run environment tonight, but has greatly struggled on the road and allowed eight HRs over his last three starts. The Mets have a 14.9 HR/FB and 34.3 Hard% at home. Batters from either side have a wOBA above .325 and hard hit rate above 34% against him since last season. Mets bats with an ISO above .170 against RHP this season in tonight’s lineup include Granderson (119 wRC+, .245 ISO), Cespedes (130 wRC+, .275 ISO), and Walker (102 wRC+, .173 ISO) in the top half and then Flores (95 wRC+, .176 ISO) and Conforto (137 wRC+, .273 ISO) towards the bottom. Walker, additionally, has homered three times in 21 career trips to the plate against Kennedy. Travis D’arnaud is welcomed back to the lineup tonight.
As reported by: Baseball Savant Other tagged players: Yoenis Cespedes, Neil Walker, Ian Kennedy, Wilmer Flores, Michael Conforto Ozuna OUT against Bud Norris after hitting two HRs last night
Bud Norris has struck out 13 of his last 44 batters and hasn’t allowed a HR since April in over 35 innings. He might even be worth a secondary pitcher slot on DraftKings for the near minimum if paying up for Fernandez tonight, especially with Marcell Ozuna being out tonight. If not though, he still has allowed a .387 wOBA and 41.6 Hard% to LHBs since last season. Derek Dietrich (137 wRC+, .199 ISO vs RHP since 2015) bats in the unfortunate 7th slot again and Christian Yelich (156 wRC+, .199 ISO vs RHP since 2015) is quite expensive, but Justin Bour (127 wRC+, .249 ISO vs RHP since 2015) is an affordable fifth place hitter tonight and perhaps the best value in the lineup. Norris has been more average against RHBs, but Giancarlo Stanton (93 wRC+, .200 ISO vs RHP this season) costs $3.6K or less and has a 215 wRC+ over the last week, including a HR last night.
Other tagged players: Christian Yelich, Derek Dietrich, Giancarlo Stanton, Bud Norris Adonis Garcia (ankle soreness) scratched Tuesday
Garcia was set to make his return to the lineup but will now sit for at least another day with ankle soreness. Chase d’Arnaud will now play 3rd and bat 7th.
As reported by: @Braves Other tagged players: Chase d'Arnaud
David Ortiz OUT of the lineup against Chris Sale
Chris Sale has struggled in recent starts as his BABIP continues to regress (.391 over the last month and up to .262 on the season). He faces one of the top offenses in baseball tonight (118 wRC+ at home, 116 wRC+ vs LHP) in a difficult run environment, but players shouldn’t completely write him off as Boston has just a 93 wRC+ over the last week and Sale has a SwStr above 11% in three of his last four starts, striking out at least seven in five of his last six starts. Not expected to have high ownership in a tough spot and with recent struggles, Sale might make a nice GPP play for just $8.7K on DraftKings. David Ortiz is out of the lineup against a pitcher who has dominated LHBs since last season (.276 wOBA, 16.7 Hard%). Expensive or moderately priced Boston bats don’t project for a ton of upside against one of the top arms in baseball.
Jose Fernandez has 29.5 K-BB% (2nd in baseball) and 15.0 SwStr% (3rd)
Jose Fernandez is tonight’s clear top pitcher after Syndergaard’s scratch. A 29.5 K-BB% for Fernandez is second best in baseball and he hasn’t walked a batter in three starts to get his walk rate down to 7.9% for the season. His 15.0 SwStr% is third best in the majors and he’s struck out at least eight in six of his last seven starts. Players should make an effort to pay up for him as nobody else matches his upside tonight in a great matchup against one of the worst offenses in baseball with tonight’s lowest run projection (2.61).
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Johnny Cueto cost $11K or more, but has just a 22.4 K%
Johnny Cueto is one of tonight’s stronger arms, but costs at least $11K on either site and has just a slightly above average 22.4 K%, meaning that players are paying for his low 3.9 HR/FB. This is not a sustainable mark, though he faces a heavily RH lineup in one of the toughest parks on RH power. Cueto is definitely an arm you can use if he fits into a lineup, but may have less upside than Fernandez and even Kluber at similar prices. With a wOBA beneath .300 and hard hit rate below 30% against batters from both side since last year, Pittsburgh bats are of no interest in this difficult matchup.
Corey Kluber has struck out at least six in seven straight starts and Rays have 25.1 K% vs RHP
Corey Kluber allowed eight runs in his last start in Kansas City, but extended his streak of six or more strikeouts to seven straight starts. The Tampa Bay offense has some power, but a 25.1 K% vs RHP, giving Kluber perhaps the 2nd highest strikeout upside tonight behind Fernandez. Kluber has a lot of value for less than $10K on FanDuel and still rates favorably at $11.6K on DraftKings. Tampa Bay has just two above average bats against RHP this season and both are right-handed. RHBs have a .244 wOBA against Kluber since last season.
Noah Syndergaard scratched Tuesday, Bartolo Colon to start
Colon will now start on Tuesday while Syndergaard will start tomorrow’s game. This is great news for the Royals bats, but they still aren’t terribly appealing options given their weak .133 ISO against RHP (2nd worst in baseball).
As reported by: @Mets Other tagged players: Bartolo Colon