DFS Alerts

Kevin Roth’s weather update is available here: https://rotogrinders.com/weather/mlb

Colby Lewis has been an enigma for most of the season, making Mariners bats interesting options tonight

Colby Lewis has had a SIERA over 5.00 for much of the season and enters his start today with a SIERA of 5.18 over his last couple of starts. Lewis gives up production to both sides of the plate, sporting an xFIP over 4.6 against both LHBs and RHBs. This opens the door for a left-handed specialist like Seth Smith (124 wRC+ versus RHP), while still leaving power bats like Nelson Cruz in play (144 wRC+ versus RHP). The usual Mariners like Robinson Cano and Kyle Seager are obviously worth consideration and should be fairly popular in tournaments.

Vogt facing Straily, a pitcher with a 13.7 K% over his last two starts

The A’s may not have any notable power-hitting left-handed bats in the lineup, but the Athletics should have some success today, facing Dan Straily. Straily has struggled lately, striking out less than 15% of batters and allowing a FB% of 49%. At a position that is often difficult to fill, Stephen Vogt looks to be a good option to take advantage of Straily’s struggles. Vogt has a wRC+ of 112 and an ISO of 0.159 against RHP and will be batting 3rd today in a positive hitting environment.

Reasons to play Blackmon over Carlos Gonzalez in large field tournaments

Carlos Gonzalez over the last week does have a monstrous ISO of 0.292, but he also has a 50% strike out rate over that same time period. Blackmon over that same stretch has a K% of 23%, and also presents stolen base upside. Erik Johnson has a -1.32 rating on the RotoGrinders stolen base predictor, meaning Blackmon should be running early and often if he can get on base today.

Left-handed Mets will be playing in a great ballpark for LHBs, facing Wily Peralta

Curtis Granderson, Michael Conforto, and Neil Walker will all bat from the left side of the plate, face Wily Peralta’s 5.25 xFIP against LHBs, and hit in the second most optimal ballpark for LHBs in the MLB. Stacking the LHBs from the Mets lineup should prove to be a productive strategy, even on a Coors day.

Like the Royals, the Orioles fill the lineup with 8 right-handed batters versus J.A. Happ

Other than Chris Davis, the Orioles will be sending all right-handed batters to the plate to face Happ today. The Orioles who have had the most success against left-handed pitching are Manny Machado and Mark Trumbo, with wRC+ totals of 139 and 120, respectively. Additionally, Chris Davis is a power-bat that has still been able to hit for extra bases against LHPs, sporting a ISO of 0.207 this year against southpaws. While much of the numbers were collected at the beginning of the year, Adam Jones has a surprisingly awful wRC+ against LHPs this year, sitting at an embarrasing 12.

The Royals stack up right-handed bats to face Jose Quintana

While Quintana has a wOBA of 0.295 against right-handed batters this year, his xFIP of 4.07 and soft contact rate of 17.4% may point to an opportunity for right-handed batters. The Royals will have eight batters swinging from the right side of the plate, with Lorenzo Cain and Whit Merrifield leading the pack in wRC+ against LHPs this year at 198 and 142, respectively. Merrifield gets the chance to lead off today, bringing impressive speed if he can get on base (7.5 speed rating on FanGraphs).

Odubel Herrera presents a high floor option, facing Tanner Roark today

Odubel Herrera is striking out less than 10% of the time over the last week. He will be leading off and facing a right-handed pitcher. Herrera has been much better against righties this year, sporting a 146 wRC+ and a 0.132 ISO. While Roark does present a positive matchup for stolen bases, -1.20 on the RotoGrinders stolen base predictor, Ramos is very skilled at limiting steals and rated 0.54 (positive means good at limiting steals).

Kevin Roth does not list any games in jeopardy of not playing today. However, he does discuss the weather at Coors Field being interesting and similar to the conditions of the past few nights that have yielded substantial offensive production. Check out his full report here: https://rotogrinders.com/weather/mlb

Corey Kluber continues to dominate hitters from both sides of the plate, holding them under a .300 wOBA this season

Kluber has allowed a .299 wOBA to left-handed batters and .253 wOBA to right-handed batters this season, making the Angels an easy fade tonight outside of Mike Trout. With Trout having a .406 wOBA, 165 wRC+ over the last couple weeks, it’s interesting to see his salary still playable at $4.2K on DraftKings. He is actually more expensive on FanDuel at $4.4K. Kluber has only struck out 10 batters once this season in 12 starts so his upside is not that great against a team that does not strikeout often. Still, Kluber will likely go overlooked due to the fact that Kershaw is on the mound. Kluber is strong play on FanDuel if you’re looking to fade Kershaw. The Angels currently have a 3.54 run projection and are not expected to produce much with the 8th lowest run projection.

Derek Holland has allowed a .345 wOBA and 34.6 Hard% vs RHBs since 2015

Derek Holland has a 4.53 ERA with estimators above five and a .345 wOBA, 34.6 Hard% allowed to RHBs since last season. Nelson Cruz (190 wRC+, .329 ISO vs LHP since 2015) is a top bat tonight, but expensive in Safeco ($5.2K on DK). Franklin Gutierrez (157 wRC+, .262 ISO vs LHP since 2015) and Dae-Ho Lee (121 wRC+, .218 ISO vs LHP) are potential salary savers, while Ketel Marte (103 wRC+, .145 ISO vs LHP since 2015) bumps up in value in the leadoff spot against a bad pitcher. Holland has held LHBs to a .271 wOBA with just a 15.6 Hard% since last season, making Robinson Cano (98 wRC+, .148 ISO vs LHP since 2015) a tough decision despite two HRs last night.

Kike Hernandez (just $220 on FanDuel) IN the lineup against a RHP

Johnny Cueto may be a bit expensive for $13.1K on DraftKings with just a 21.2 K% and it’s difficult to project him for a Win against Kershaw on FanDuel, where he costs $10.7K, although he should still pitch well against this under-performing Dodger offense. We don’t want to attack him, but now know Dave Roberts plays daily fantasy baseball because Kike Hernandez, who never plays against RHP, gets the start and bats 8th. Why is that important? In a pricing error on FanDuel, he costs just $220.

Kevin Roth has updated his weather report and details some of the windy conditions affecting this slate. He also has some major details about Coors Field. Check out the breakdown at the link below!

Clayton Kershaw expected to dominate the Giants, don't get cute

The Giants have the lowest run projection (2.46) of the slate for good reason. Clayton Kershaw is on the bump and he should be in your lineups. Kershaw has had 10 or more strikeouts in seven of his twelve starts this season. The upside is immense while the downside for fading Kershaw leaves you with a chance of likely not cashing. Kershaw has been really tough on left-handed batters this season, allowing a measly .148 wOBA to them. The Giants are sending out five left-handed bats against Kershaw, basically making the entire lineup a bust. Buster Posey is back in the lineup after missing Wednesday’s game. With FanDuel having all the hitters priced at $2K, only Buster Posey is the one that could make some noise. Posey is an extremely risky option that will likely hurt you more than he could help.

Rockies are projected for a slate high seven runs

It’s not often you see a team projected to score seven runs (7.2 and climbing to be exact), but that’s the situation the Rockies find themselves in tonight against Andrew Cashner (.363 wOBA vs LHBs, .317 vs RHBs since 2015). This is simple. Play everybody and Carlos Gonzalez (145 wRC+, .304 ISO vs RHP since 2015) twice. DJ LeMahieu (92 wRC+) is the only sub-100 wRC+ vs RHP since last season and he still has value hitting 2nd. As much exposure as affordable is recommended towards this lineup.