DFS Alerts
Padres not one of the top projected offenses tonight despite playing at Coors Field
The Padres currently sit as the 4th highest run projection (4.80) but their run projection has been falling pretty much all day. Jon Gray is allowing a .455 wOBA to left-handed bats at home this season, putting Jon Jay, Yangervis Solarte, and Brett Wallace in play tonight. Will Myers also deserves consideration because he has been the best hitter for the Padres over the last couple weeks with a .500 wOBA, 225 wRC+. Myers salary is inflated but still should see a fairly large amount of ownership due to his recent surge. Solarte (.422 wOBA, 173 wRC+ L14) has also hit well over the last couple weeks but is an affordable $3.6K on DraftKings. Jon Jay has a .324 wOBA, 127 wRC+ over the last two weeks but has a .088 ISO vs. RHP, making him too risky for cash games. Brett Wallace is also too risky for cash games due to his recent struggles (.264 wOBA, 66 wRC+) but still deserves tournament consideration at Coors Field.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Yangervis Solarte, Brett Wallace, Jon Gray
Marcell Ozua has a 254 wRC+ and .432 ISO vs LHP this season
Patrick Corbin has a 21.9 Hard% and 19.4 HR/FB this season with a below average strikeout rate. The Marlins have a 16.1 K-BB% and are built around just a couple of monster RHBs against lefties this season and one of them can no longer make contact. For just $5.5K on DraftKings with a near league average 8.8 SwStr%, Corbin could be considered as a punt SP#2 on DraftKings if players need to venture down that far. Adeiny Hechavarria (39 wRC+, .091 ISO vs LHP in 2016) hits leadoff tonight and is a salary saving SS option on FanDuel for $2.2K, but may not provide much excess value for $3.9K on DK. Marcell Ozuna (254 wRC+, .432 ISO vs LHP this year) is a bat to build around tonight. He costs less than $5K on DraftKings, $3.5K on FanDuel. Martin Prado (133 wRC+ vs LHP since 2015) is a very playable bat here, while Giancarlo Stanton still has great numbers against LHP since 2015 (171 wRC+, .426 ISO vs LHP), but has just a 118 wRC+ and .257 ISO against them this year. Still very good, but potentially not worth nearly $5K on DraftKings. JT Realmuto is the one RH bat OUT of the lineup tonight that some might have been considering here.
Other tagged players: Patrick Corbin, Patrick Corbin, Adeiny Hechavarria, Giancarlo Stanton
Nicolino has a 3.9 SwStr%, 37.1 Hard% facing an Arizona lineup with an 18.1 HR/FB vs LHP
Justin Nicolino brings a 3.9 SwStr%, 1.12 GB/FB and 37.1 Hard% to Arizona (17.4 HR/FB at home, 18.1 HR/FB vs LHP). The Diamondbacks RHBs are a great pivot from Coors tonight (5.14 team run projection) and not entirely expensive. Nicolino has allowed a .331 wOBA to RHBs since last season and just Paul Goldschmidt (177 wRC+, .240 ISO vs LHP since 2015) is above $4.2K on DK or even $3K on FD (among RH bats). Welington Castillo (135 wRC+, .277 ISO vs LHP since 2015) is always a top catcher against mediocre LHPs at home. Yasmany Tomas (131 wRC+, .228 ISO vs LHP since 2015) has similar numbers at the same price, but bats lower in the order at a more plentiful position. Peter O’Brien bats 5th tonight in Brandon Drury’s usual spot against LHPs, but may not be available on daily fantasy sites yet.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Justin Nicolino, Peter O'Brien, Welington Castillo, Yasmany Tomas Brewers facing Matt Harvey at home, have two hot bats in the lineup
Matt Harvey was struggling to start the season but has only allowed one run in his last two starts. The Brewers have a 4.11 run projection (13th lowest), basically middle of the pack on a full slate. Jonathan Villar (.403 wOBA, 151 wRC+ L14) and Jonathan Lucroy (.470 wOBA, 197 wRC+ L14) have been the hottest bats in the Brewers lineup and are both under $5K on DraftKings. Villar has a .117 ISO vs. RHP and is a tournament option only. Lucroy is the most expensive batter in the lineup on DraftKings at $4.8K but is a playable $3.8K on FanDuel. Due to the fact that the Brewers are not expected to score a ton compared to Coors Field, it’ll be tough to stack other players from the heart of the order since they are also around $4K or above it.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Jonathan Lucroy, Matt Harvey Merrifield leads off against struggling Chris Sale
Chris Sale has to be part of the daily fantasy discussion whenever he pitches, but the big lefty has struggled in recent starts and has just a 7.6 SwStr% over teh last month. The pitch to contact approach has been less successful recently as there was no way he was holding a BABIP around .200. It’s still at .244 and probably still has some regression left, but hopefully he’ll reconsider this approach and get back to being Chris Sale. He’s still one of tonight’s top five overall pitchers in all likelihood, but for more than $11K, he may be just a marginal buy. We’re obviously still not interested in attacking him, but there has been one interesting development in the Kansas City lineup. Whit Merrifield has displaced Alcides Escobar (2nd) atop the Kansas City lineup and nearly anyone had to be a better choice.
Other tagged players: Whit Merrifield, Alcides Escobar Kennedy has a 4.65 ERA and 15.5 HR/FB on the road this season
Ian Kennedy has a 4.65 ERA with a 15.5 HR/FB and just above average 21.2 K% away from Kansas City this year as we expected him to pitch much better in that ballpark. The White Sox are struggling and a favorable matchup, but there are plenty of usable arms in his price range that may make the risk not worth the reward, especially for $9.3K on DraftKings. The White Sox made some moves today, both off the field and in their lineup. Jose Abreu (130 wRC+, .215 ISO vs RHP since 2015) bats 2nd and is affordably around $3.5K against a HR prone pitcher, though his power is down this year (.152 ISO vs RHP). Melky Cabrera (102 wRC+, .123 ISO vs RHP since 2015) is an average bat at best without power anymore, but he bats 3rd now, is red hot (296 wRC+, 36.4 Hard% last seven days) and costs just $3K on either site. With Kennedy’s .341 wOBA and 35.0 Hard% against LHBs since last season, the White Sox could provide some salary relief tonight.
Other tagged players: Jose Abreu, Ian Kennedy Conforto & Walker out against RH Guerra in Milwaukee
Junior Guerra hasn’t been bad (3.61 ERA, 4.05 SIERA, 22.7 K%, 11.6 SwStr%), but it didn’t appear as if he’d be able to hold his 8.7 HR/FB with a 37.0 Hard%. The Mets initially appeared to have a bit too much firepower against him (although he’s shown a reverse platoon split so far – .373 wOBA vs RHBs). In a lineup with Alejandro de Aza (109 wRC+ vs RHP since 2015) batting 2nd and James Loney batting cleanup (92 wRC+ vs RHP since 2015), he may deserve a 2nd look for just $7K. Incidentally, both of those bats are just $2.2K on FanDuel and need to be considered under the circumstances, especially with all of the expensive pitching on the board. Granderson and Cespedes both have a 141 wRC+ vs RHP with an ISO above .225 vs RHP since last season, though both are $4.4K or higher on DK.
Other tagged players: Alejandro De Aza, James Loney, Curtis Granderson, Yoenis Cespedes Jeremy Hellickson has a 14.4 SwStr% over the last month, has given up 11 HRs in 12 starts
Hellickson has struggled against LHB this season, allowing a .369 wOBA but has a held right-handers to a .300 wOBA. He’s averaging 6.4 strikeouts in his last five starts but is not expected to get much run support tonight against the Nationals and Stephen Strasburg. Bryce Harper continues to be affordable ($4.6K) based on his upside and should be able to attack Hellickson. Harper has been struggling lately for Harper’s standards (.322 wOBA, 100 wRC+ L14) making him a tournament option only. Daniel Murphy (.414 wOBA, 162 wRC+ L14) continues to play well and is usable in all league formats.
Other tagged players: Daniel Murphy Anthony Rizzo has been scratched due to back tightness
According to the Cubs twitter feed, Anthony Rizzo “is experiencing back tightness and has been scratched from today’s lineup. He is day-to-day.” He was a top First Base bat tonight in a great spot. Montero bats 5th with Zobrist cleanup and Almora batting 8th now. Adjust accordingly.
As reported by: Cubs Carpenter has 3 HRs vs Cole with a 96.2 mph aEV in 12 batted balls since last year.
Gerrit Cole has lost his ability to miss bats (13 Ks last 110 batters) and that’s concerning. His ERA is still 2.85 because of a 4.7 HR/FB. He pitches in a great park and has a career 7.4 HR/FB, so maybe we shouldn’t expect his ERA to regress all the way to his 4.27 SIERA or 4.03 xFIP, but the HR rate is a little too low to be believed. Additionally, he faces one of the top two offenses vs RHP this season (122 wRC+, 15.3 HR/FB), but he costs just $7K on DraftKings and is at home in a park that kills RH power. If you find yourself in a bind for an 2nd starter on DraftKings and he fits, you could probably do worse. Cole has a small platoon split (.316 wOBA to LHBs since 2015), but the best bat here is the only real expensive one. Matt Carpenter (157 wRC+, .263 ISO vs RHP since 2015) is the only bat above $4K on either site ($5K on DK). He has three HRs in 33 career PAs against Cole with a 96.2 mph aEV in 12 batted balls since last year. Brandon Moss (163 wRC+, .407 ISO vs RHP this year) is a below the radar, red hot bat to look into (381 wRC+ last seven days) for less than $4K. Note that Stephen Piscotty and Yadier Molina get a night off.
As reported by: Baseball Savant Other tagged players: Brandon Moss, Gerrit Cole Tyler Duffery has a 16.0 K-BB% and the Red Sox have a 72 wRC+, 4.3 HR/FB last seven days
This is a matchup that provides interesting opportunity in that the Red Sox are struggling for the first time this season (yes, they did just come out of San Francisco in a series with Ortiz mostly on the bench) with just a 72 wRC+ and 4.3 HR/FB over the last week, but you are probably looking for a cheap SP2 on DraftKings and Tyler Duffey has a 16.0 K-BB%. He has a .352 BABIP and 16.3 HR/FB, accounting for an ERA above four, but his contact rates have been about average (30.2 Hard%) with a bit of a high LD rate (24.5%). Minnesota is not a friendly park for LH power (though neither is Fenway), but there’s going to be risk for $6K or less. He doesn’t even have to be good for this price, but Duffey has a chance to be decent here. He has allowed batters from either side a wOBA close to .330 in his career, so if players like the Boston bats and can afford them, they can be played, especially Ortiz (176 wRC+, .349 ISO vs RHP since 2015), but both he and Betts both cost $5.5K on DraftKings, while Betts costs $4.6K on FanDuel. The Red Sox still have the best offense in the majors vs RHP and are projected for 5.12 runs tonight, but it’s tough to find value at these prices.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: David Ortiz, Mookie Betts Astros expected to struggle against Matt Andriese with a run projection under 4 (3.83)
Matt Andriese has only pitched twice at home this season but has 1.80 ERA pitching at Tropicana Field. Andriese has allowed a .220 wOBA vs. LHB and a .256 wOBA to RHB this season. Andriese does not strikeout a ton of batters (16.2 K%) so his upside is limited, even though the Astros are the team that strikes out the most in the majors. Tropicana Field is a more pitcher-friendly park and does not leave much upside for the Astros. Due to their inflated salaries, the Astros are GPP plays only if you must force them onto your roster. George Springer (.372 wOBA, 136 wRC+ L14) and Jose Altuve (.408 wOBA, 161 wRC+ L14) could take advantage of Andriese but are both over $5K on DraftKings, limiting your roster flexibility.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: George Springer, Jose Altuve McCullers has a 29.4 K% and 59.4 GB%, but a 15.1 BB%
Lance McCullers has a 29.4 K%, striking out at least seven in each of his last four starts, after a rough first start in Boston. The Rays have a 25.9 K% at home and 25.1 K% vs RHP. The issue is a 15.1 BB% that has kept him to just five innings twice and might be more of a problem if the Rays flash their power (15.6 HR/FB vs RHP). McCullers additionally has kept the ball on the ground 59.4% of the 55% of the time batters have made contact (with two of his 13 fly balls being popups), which should keep the ball in the park. He has tremendous upside in the $9-10K range depending on site, but should perhaps be limited to GPPs due to his walk rate. Logan Forsythe returns tonight and due to McCullers’ reverse split (.321 wOBA RHBs, .268 LHBs), could provide value at a reduced cost. The scorching Evan Longoria (132 wRC+, .264 ISO vs RHP this season, .269 wRC+ & 44.4 Hard% over the last week) might be another bat to consider here.
Other tagged players: Logan Forsythe, Evan Longoria Yankees are projected for 5.08 runs, but bats have risen in cost
Mike Pelfrey has allowed a .372 wOBA and 32.5 Hard% to LHBs since 2015. The Yankees, with a 5.08 run projection, should be a great pivot from Coors tonight, but the bats have risen in cost (especially on DK), to the point where they might not supply the salary relief needed to land a top pitcher. The top three are all above $4.5K on DK, $3.5K on FD, but still need to be considered if affordable. Beltran (130 wRC+, .281 ISO vs RHP in 2016) (now over $5K on DK) and Gardner (137 wRC+, .167 ISO vs RHP in 2016) each have a wRC+ above 250 over the last week with the former chipping in a 57.9 Hard%. Brian McCann (109 wRC+, .190 ISO vs RHP this year) still chips in some value on FanDuel ($3.1K). He has eight extra base hits and two HRs against Pelfrey in 44 career PAs. This is an entirely stackable LH lineup against a bad pitcher if affordable.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Brett Gardner, Brian McCann, Mike Pelfrey Jose Bautista OUT against Kevin Gausman, who has a reverse platoon split (.362 wOBA vs RHBs)
Kevin Gausman was probably just on the edge of playability in Toronto tonight. He’s pitched well (3.52 ERA, 3.72 SIERA, 22.3 K%, 11.1 SwStr%, 5.0 Hard-Soft%), but still struggles against same handed hitting (.362 wOBA this season, .360 since 2015) and costs just above $8K on either site. However, the absence of Jose Bautista tonight, might give him the boost he needs, although he’s still not in a spot where players should look to build around him. The Blue Jays have hit the ball hard at home (19.5 Hard-Soft%), but have just a 95 wRC+ vs RHP. Due to his inability to stop RHBs, Josh Donaldson (144 wRC+, .261 ISO vs RHP since 2015) is a top value at 3B on DK tonight ($4.2K), while Edwin Encarnacion (135 wRC+, .260 ISO vs RHP since 2015) remains an option for $4K or less.
Other tagged players: Josh Donaldson, Edwin Encarnacion