DFS Alerts

Encarnacion OUT against Eickhoff tonight; Blue Jays have tonight's top run projection (5.22)

Jerad Eickhoff has been a perfectly league average pitcher in K%, ERA, and ERA estimators this year, though he has struggled a bit on the road. He has at least three ERs in all six road starts with a 4.15 xFIP, 13.4 HR/FB, and 19.2 Hard-Soft% away from Philly since being called up. Eickhoff appears more or less accurately priced against a Toronto offense that’s heating up (131 wRC+ last seven days) in a tough park. Edwin Encarnacion’s absence is a bit of a boost, but he has been under-performing this season anyway. LHBs have a wOBA 100 points higher against Eichkoff in his career (.343 vs .246) though both have a hard hit rate above 32%. Michael Saunders may actually be the top play here (144 wRC+, .207 ISO vs RHP this year), now red hot and in the 3rd spot (299 wRC+, 56.3 Hard% last seven days) with Justin Smoak (126 wRC+, .191 ISO vs RHP this season) adding value from the cleanup spot. Donaldson and Bautista both have a wRC+ above 140 with an IS) above .250 vs RHP since last season and should not be counted out for a team projected for a slate high 5.22 runs.

Anderson moves to leadoff, Frazier down to 5th for White Sox against Boyd

Matt Boyd has a 12.0 HR/FB in a few starts this year that’s much better than his 17.7 HR/FB last year, but it’s still very dangerous for a pitcher with a 0.66 GB/FB in his time in the majors so far. Lefties and righties have both hit him hard (though there’s just one lefty in the lineup tonight) with RHBs having a .365 wOBA and 33.0 Hard% against him since last season. Todd Frazier is the top power bat here (133 wRC+, .344 ISO vs LHP since 2015), but loses some value, especially for $5K on DraftKings, with a drop to 5th in the order. Melky Cabrera is the hottest bat (198 wRC+ last seven days) and has shown improved power against LHP this year (145 wRC+, .233 ISO). Tim Anderson just arrived in the majors last week, but a low priced (under $3K on either site) SS batting leadoff on a team projected for 4.65 runs always has to be strongly considered. He’s been about a league average hitter with minimal power throughout his minor league career.

Kyle Hendricks generates the 2nd most weak contact in baseball (28.8%) with the 7th best GB rate (56.8%)

The Nationals have a team 146 wRC+ over the last week with some of their RH bats improving against RHP (Zimmerman now a 102 wRC+ for the season), but they face a tough pitcher with the 2nd most weak contact (28.8%) and 7th best ground ball rate in baseball (56.8%). Those numbers are even slightly better against RHBs, taking them out of play. The only issue with using Kendricks here is that Maddon likes to pinch hit for him after five innings if the team is behind (it happened last time out in Philly) and in a matchup against Scherzer, that’s a distinct possibility here. With a league average K% and those quality batted ball/contact rates, his performance can’t be questioned. Lefties do have a .323 wOBA against him, keeping Harper (192 wRC+, .327 ISO vs RHP since 2015) in play at a lower cost than Murphy (193 wRC+, .284 ISO vs RHP this year).

Mallex Smith moves into leadoff spot against Daniel Wright

Eleven of the 49 batters Daniel Wright has faced this year have scored and he’s pitched just 24 innings above AA in his career. He has excellent control (just one walk), but little to no prospect status around him as a 25 year old former 10th round draft pick. Lefties (and righties) have a wOBA above .400 against him with nearly 50% hard contact. Mallex Smith has a 142 wRC+ vs RHP and speed, giving him value at a reasonable cost on either site out of the leadoff spot. Freddie Freeman has struggled this year (86 wRC+, .165 ISO vs RHP), but is still the only proven bat in this lineup. The Braves are projected for 4.54 runs, so more than normal exposure could be justified as a way to save salary if paying up for Scherzer tonight.

Aaron Blair has allowed .402 wOBA to LHBs

Aaron Blair has a -0.6 K-BB% with a .402 wOBA allowed to LHBs, though he hasn’t allowed a lot of hard contact to either side of the plate (26.0 Hard% overall). His 12.6 BB% is atrocious though. Joey Votto (156 wRC+, .235 ISO vs RHP since 2015) might reach value on walks alone. Jay Bruce (131 wRC+, .313 ISO vs RHP this season) should bat with runners on base. Adam Duvall has handled RHP well (130 wRC+, .341 ISO since 2015) and Blair has allowed righties a .362 wOBA as well. If you’re looking for a punt Catcher, Tucker Barnhart has a 342 wRC+ and 42.9 Hard% over the last week.

Max Scherzer has a 13+ SwStr% in each of last nine starts, did not allow a HR last start

The Cubs are facing tonight’s top pitching in Max Scherzer, who has a SwStr above 13% in each of his last nine starts and has the 5th highest strikeout rate in the majors (30.9%). His cost is just above $12K on DraftKings and less on FanDuel, likely to account for him having one of the tougher matchups tonight. The Cubs walk a lot (11.1% vs RHP) and have above average power, which is dangerous against Scherzer (16.5 HR/FB). The Cubs bats do come at a reduced cost, so if players think they can figure out where the power will come from, it may be worth a shot to roster a Cub or two, but it’s a high risk proposition that may return a zero without the HR. There are no recommended Cub bats in particular, though Zobrist has homered three times in 27 career PAs in this BvP matchup. Scherzer is a pitcher you can build a cash lineup around with upside that cancels out his HR issues.

Vegas has the Dodgers projected to score 3.87 runs, giving Peavy the benefit of the doubt

Jake Peavy is striking out less than 20% of the batters he faces over the last couple of weeks and is yielding a fly ball percentage over 50%. Peavy’s xFIP at home is a below average 6.00 against LHBs, so perhaps the Dodgers can prove Vegas wrong tonight. Corey Seager and Trayce Thompson both bring significant power against RHP, each possessing ISOs of 0.217 and 0.271, respectively. If you are on a late swap site and in need of big individual performances, look to these two Dodgers bats to potentially save the day.

Tyler Anderson struggles against left-handed batters, making Jon Jay a sneaky value option

Tyler Anderson will be starting for the Rockies today and facing the Padres. So far in 2016, Anderson has shown significant splits, struggling more against LHBs than RHBs. In 127 plate appearances total, Anderson has a OPS of 0.981 against LHBs, while only allowing an OPS of 0.342 against RHBs. Jay also has some reverse splits, possessing a wRC+ of 149 against LHPs, and reaching base 43% of the time.

Freddy Galvis faces Joe Ross today, should look to run if he gets on base

Joe Ross has a rating of -1.12 on the RotoGrinders stolen base predictor, with the negative direction being positive for base runners. Additionally, Galvis is a much better batter from the left side of the plate, sporting an ISO of 0.175 against RHP. Freddy is a great mid-priced shortstop with chances of hitting a home run and stealing a base on any given day when facing a RHP.

Zach Davies will be facing an atypical, more watered-down Mets lineup today

Zach Davies has been solid in his last few outings, striking out 27% of batters he has faced and limiting the hard contact to 26%. Today he faces a Mets lineup that includes Alejandro De Aza, Matt Reynolds, Kelly Johnson, James Loney, and Kevin Plawecki. Over the last week, De Aza is striking out 41% of the time, while the majority of the other Mets have fewer than 10 at-bats in the last 7 days.

The Roth Report is out, highlighting good weather around the league and a tinge of concern in Colorado. Kevin rated the Coors Field game YELLOW/ORANGE, but does mention he believes the production is worth the risk. See his full report here: https://rotogrinders.com/weather/mlb

Michael Saunders cleaning up and facing a hittable Ubaldo Jimenez

Ubaldo Jimenez has an xFIP of 5.11 against LHBs this year, which is surprising considering his reasonable 28.2% FB% allowed to lefties. Perhaps Ubaldo’s 1.46 HR/9 will normalize and come down throughout his next many starts, but until it does, targeting him with RHP-smashers like Michael Saunders may not be a bad strategy. Saunders has a wRC+ of 137 against RHP and could be one of the most sneaky, elite cleanup hitters playing today.

John Lamb has a K% below 14%, meaning balls in play for Danny Valencia and the Athletics

John Lamb has had a few good outings in recent weeks, but his strike out rates still point towards using Athletics bats today. Today combines two of 2016’s DFS rules. Rule 1 is to always play RHBs against John Lamb and his 4.85 xFIP and 1.24 HR/9 allowed to RHBs. Rule 2 is to always play Danny Valencia against any non-elite LHPs, supported by his wRC+ of 261 against LHP.

John Grant starting for the Braves against the Cubs today

Grant has been hit hard in limited action in the big leagues this year, holding xFIPs of 4.63 and 3.94 against LHBS AND RHBs, respectively. Grant showed slightly more vulnerability in the minors to left-handed batters, making 4 of the first 5 Cubs batters viable targets, beginning with Anthony Rizzo and Ben Zobrist. Rizzo and Zobrist have wRC+ totals of 165 and 154 versus RHPs, respectively.

Liriano has name-recognition, but may be the best pitcher to target with batters tonight

Liriano has not been good over his last few starts, sporting a SIERA of 5.9 in his last couple of starts. Liriano’s name recognition may suppress the Cardinals ownership slightly, which only raises the value of the Cardinals RHBs. Jhonny Peralta will get the opportunity to bat clean-up, while Randal Grichuk will get to lead off.