DFS Alerts

Lineup Update: D'Backs will have Jean Segura leadoff, Michael Bourn will bat 2nd

The DBacks have made a small change to their confirmed lineup – Jean Segura will now leadoff with Michael Bourn batting 2nd. Segura isn’t a preferred target against Chris Archer, while Bourn is a suitable GPP punt play given his near-minimum salary on most sites.

Cleveland has eight RH bats against a pitcher with a career .272 wOBA vs RHBs

James Paxton was knocked around in his only major league start this year by the Padres, allowing 10 hits and 2 HRs on a 31.3 LD%, but had just an 18.8 Hard% and struck out seven of 24 batters. He had a 25.9 K% at AAA and a fastball averaging 96.6 mph in his return. That deserves a look for about $7K against a Cleveland team that has struggled on the road (84 wRC+) and has just an 8.4 HR/FB vs LHP. More interesting is that since last season, Paxton has .272 wOBA allowed to RHBs in his career (.374 vs LHBs) and faces eight of them tonight with the one lefty (Kipnis) being terrible against LHP (78 wRC+ since last season). Francisco Lindor (149 wRC+, .180 ISO vs LHP career) is a SS at a reasonable price on both sites, but might be the only strong consideration here in a tough park. Due to the beating San Diego handed him last time out, Paxton might have some value as an under the radar arm tonight.

Chris Archer struggles on the road, faces the Diamondbacks at hitter-friendly Chase Field

Chris Archer has allowed a .404 wOBA on the road compared to a .264 wOBA at home. He has especially struggled against right-handed batters, allowing a .448 wOBa against them. Even with that in mind, Vegas has the Dbacks with a middle of the road 4.14 run projection. Paul Goldschmidt has been the hottest batter in the lineup over the last couple weeks (.419 wOBA, 161 wRC+) and is the most expensive batter in the lineup at $4.7K. Jake Lamb also deserves some consideration in the cleanup spot with his salary at an affordable 3.2K on DraftKings. With most people gravitating towards the high-end third basemen, Lamb’s ownership should be pretty low in tournaments. Lamb has a .379 wOBA, 134 wRC+ over the last two weeks, including 4 HRs, which is most on the team over that span. Lamb and Goldschmidt lead the team with 10 HRs a piece, having a majority of them coming at home. After landing on the disabled list due to a wrist injury, David Peralta is back and is batting 6th tonight.

Bauer has allowed a lot of hard contact (18.0 Hard-Soft%) facing a team with a lot of power (15.8 HR/FB vs RHP) at Safeco (16.8 HR/FB at home)

Trevor Bauer has just a league average strikeout rate this year with his usual walk problems and a lot of hard contact (18.0 Hard-Soft%) against a team with a 16.8 HR/FB at home and 15.8 HR/FB vs RHP. Bauer also has little platoon split, allowing batters from both side a wOBA between .310 and .320 since last season. The Mariners have four batters who hammer RHP in the top half of the lineup, making two through five an interesting stack here. Seth Smith (125 wRC+, .195 ISO vs RHP since 2015) might be likely to be PH for later in the game, but has a 249 wRC+, 46.2 Hard% over the last week and costs $3.5K or less. Cano (186 wRC+, .265 ISO vs RHP this season), Cruz (141 wRC+ .226 ISO vs RHP since last season), and Seager (186 wRC+, .348 ISO vs RHP in 2016) are the three high profile bats in a good spot tonight.

In the latest update, Kevin pinpoints a couple of games that could give us trouble tonight. NYM PIT is ORANGE and TOR DET is YELLOW. Read his full report on our weather page, linked below.

Steven Matz has allowed a .241 wOBA to right-handed bats this season and the Pirates have six in the lineup

Steven Matz has started this season really well (2.60 ERA, 55.8 GB%, and 53 Ks in 55 innings) and is a strong option with Jon Lester expected to be heavily in all league formats. Playing in a pitcher-friendly park, the Pirates have the 5th lowest run projection (3.95) but have some hot bats atop the lineup. Josh Harrison (.364 wOBA, 132 wRC+ L14) and Jung-Ho Kang (.409 wOBA, 162 wRC+ L14) have been hitting well but are only secondary tournament options due to the success Matz has had against right-handed bats. With so many quality and affordable infielders available on this slate, it’ll be tough to recommend Kang and Harrison in anything more than low-dollar GPPs.

Colby Lewis has a 26.0 Hard-Soft% and the Astros have a 15.3 HR/FB vs RHP

Colby Rasmus has just three strikeouts over his last three starts and his 84.6 LOB% is well above his career average. Don’t be fooled by his 3.09 ERA with estimators sitting a run and a half higher. This is a hard contact pitcher (26.0 Hard-Soft%) in a dangerous park against a hard contact offense (15.3 HR/FB, 16.8 Hard-Soft% vs RHP). In fact, Houston has the 3rd highest run projection tonight (4.91) and might not be as highly owned as they should be if players are too respectful of Lewis’s ERA. He has allowed hard contact with at least a .300 wOBA to batters from either side since last season. This is a very stackable offense with Springer (120 wRC+, .179 ISO vs RHP since 2015) and Carlos Correa (128 wRC+, .208 ISO vs RHP career) being top overall options with Colby Rasmus (108 wRC+, .228 ISO vs RHP since 2015) potentially being the top value play for less than $4K on either site out of the cleanup spot. We don’t normally like to to look at the 9th position, but when you find a low priced Catcher with some pop (104 wRC+, .202 ISO vs RHP since 2015) on a difficult night a the position, an exception might be made. Additionally, this is a lineup with some batted ball success against Lewis. Correa (2 HRs) and Rasmus both have a 97 mph aEV in a combined 20 batted balls against Lewis since last season. Carlos Gomez (81 wRC+, .127 ISO vs RHP since 2015) is really the only bat that should probably be omitted here.

Michael Fiers has not pitched well against right-handed bats on the road over the last two seasons

Fiers has allowed a .498 wOBA this season and a .371 wOBA last season to right-handed batters on the road. Including switch-hitting Jurickson Profar, Fiers is facing 6 right-handed bats in the Rangers lineup. The Rangers currently have a 4.62 run projection, which is 6th highest today. Profar and Nomar Mazara are priced well today and are playable in all formats. Profar (.441 wOBA, 178 wRC+) has been hitting really well over the last couple weeks, since being inserted as the leadoff hitter due to Rougned Odor’s suspension. Profar also has a .313 ISO and a .481 wOBA vs. RHP and is still fairly cheap across the industry and has multi-position eligibility on DK. Mazara has seen his salary spike on DraftKings to $3.9K and is also a viable play due to the cheap pitching options available on the slate. Mazara is tied for the lead in RBIs on the team over the last two weeks with 11 and has really thrived batting 3rd in the lineup. Ian Desmond (.419 wOBA, 163 wRC+ L14) and Adrian Beltre (.413 wOBA, 158 wRC+ L14) also deserve consideration in a Rangers’ stack due to the fact this game has the highest O/U (9.5) on a short slate.

Hosmer (170 wRC+, .218 ISO vs RHP) facing a pitcher who has allowed a .412 wOBA to LHBs

Mike Wright has allowed a .412 wOBA to LHBs since last season and hasn’t been good against RHBs either (.343 wOBA). This is a pitcher players should look to attack tonight with Kansas City having the 4th highest run projection tonight (4.64). Eric Hosmer (170 wRC+, .218 ISO vs RHP this season) might be one of the top overall and value bats tonight for just $3.6K or less on either site. While other Kansas City bats are mostly right handed and strangely priced much higher on DraftKings, Salvador Perez has been another potent bat vs RHP this season (126 wRC+, .230 ISO) and costs just $2.7K out of the 5th spot on FanDuel.

Padres expected to struggle against Williams Perez and his elite ground ball rate vs RHB

Williams Perez has a 70.8 GB% against right-handed bats in eight starts this season and had a 56.9 GB% against them last season. Playing in pitcher-friendly Petco Park, we will likely have to take the right-handed bats out of consideration. With a 3.97 run projection (6th lowest), the Padres don’t have much upside in this matchup. If you’re still looking for some production in this game to differentiate your lineup, Yangervis Solarte (.452 wOBA, 193 wRC+ L14) has been hot over the last couple weeks, has multi-position eligibility, and only cost $3.5K on DraftKings.

Angels have just a 15.7 K% vs RHP and Tanaka's strikeout rate has dropped over the last month (16.2%)

Masahiro Tanaka has seen his K% plummet to 16.2% (8.7 SwStr%) over the last month. He’s struck out more than four just once in his last five starts and the Angels have just a 15.7 K% vs RHP. While his cost has dropped to $8.3K on DraftKings, $9.7K on FanDuel seems too high to be comfortable with at this point. His GB rate has dipped since the end of April as well, but still sits at 54.1% for the season and the Angels don’t have many LH bats that can take advantage of the short RF porch. Although Mike Trout (171 wRC+, .287 ISO vs RHP since 2015) is in play in almost any matchup, there don’t appear to be any other good values in this lineup at moderate prices. C.J. Cron is a low priced 1B option who has hit RHP (112 wRC+, .185 ISO) better than lefties since last season, but the other bats you might look at to take advantage of a potentially HR prone pitcher in a small park (Calhoun and Pujols) are both at least $4K on DK and $3.4K on FanDuel. This is not an especially attractive matchup from either side.

Duffy has struck out 19 of 75 batters in four starts, Orioles have just an 81 wRC+, 10.4 HR/FB vs LHP

Danny Duffy has pitched well in four starts outside a bad inning or two and even completed six innings last time out. He has struck out 19 of 75 batters, walking just two with three HRs in a starting role this season. A 0.0 Hard-Soft% has helped him generate more popups (13.3%) than HRs (8.9%). Baltimore is a tough park that will challenge a fly ball pitcher, but this has not been nearly as potent an offense vs LHP (81 wRC+, 20.8 K%, 10.4 HR/FB). Duffy is an extremely low priced player on DraftKings ($4.3K), who’s upside could extend well beyond his cost, while $6.9K on FanDuel doesn’t appear out of line either. If you want to stack Cubs with Lester on DK, this is a good spot to look for your secondary pitcher. While not suggesting a punt on all Baltimore bats, Trumbo (94 wRC+, .394 ISO vs LHP this season) and Machado (153 wRC+, .217 ISO vs LHP this season) are a bit excessive at over $5K each on DK. The other two bats that have a wRC+ above 76 against LHP this year may have a bit of value. Nolan Reimold (127 wRC+, .171 ISO) hits lower in the order, but has a 173 wRC+ and 50 Hard% over the last week. for less than $3.5K. Joey Rickard (122 wRC+, .184 ISO) has a similar cost with a much better lineup spot (2nd)

Cespedes (233 wRC+, .389 ISO vs LHP this year) returns to Mets lineup in Pittsburgh against Niese

Jon Niese has been pitching well over the last month (2.64 ERA, 3.77 ERA), though still hasn’t shown the upside of a pitcher worth more than $7K tonight (17.1 K%). He will have extra motivation against his old team in a great park for a LHP (suppresses RH power), so we might want to be careful attacking him despite a .343 wOBA (30.5 Hard%) allowed to RHBs since last season, especially with his 59.6 GB% in May. He is HR prone though and Yoenis Cespedes (233 wRC+, .389 ISO vs LHP this year) returns to the lineup tonight and is a guy who can hit it out of any park with relative ease. He costs just over $4K on DraftKings. Neil Walker is another player who might be highly motivated in his return to Pittsburgh tonight and has really turned it on vs LHP this year (201 wRC+, .386 ISO). Wilmer Flores (146 wRC+, .248 ISO vs LHP since 2015) and Asdrubel Cabrera (103 wRC+, .134 ISO vs LHP) as an inexpensive SS near the top of the lineup might be other bats to consider here.

Matt Shoemaker has struck out 31 of 87 batters without a walk or HR last three starts

Matt Shoemaker has struck out 31 of his last 87 batters without allowing a single walk or HR and just four runs total over his last three starts. While it dipped slightly in his last start, his velocity continues to be nearly two mph higher than what he was throwing in April and complimenting the increase with a splitter over 40% of the time over the last month and been incredibly successful. His newfound ability to keep the ball in the park will be challenged in Yankee Stadium, but the park is scarier than the lineup at this point (95 wRC+, 25.1 Hard% at home, 86 wRC+, 24.4 Hard% vs RHP). Shoemaker is a mid-range option with upside despite a dangerous park for a fly ball pitcher. If you believe he might return to his old HR prone ways, Carlos Beltran (130 wRC+, .295 ISO vs RHP this season) might be your most potent bat (45.5 Hard% last seven days), while Brett Gardner (128 wRC+, .174 ISO vs RHP this season) has been the most consistent with some power at home.

Detroit has tonight's second highest run projection (4.92) despite Happ's 3.06 ERA

J.A. Happ has struck out more than five just once all season and has just an 8.2 K-BB% without doing anything noticeable from a batted ball or contact standpoint. He’s deriving most of his value from a .259 BABIP and 81.1 LOB% and is in a difficult spot against a lineup stacked with good RH hitters. The Tigers had been struggling against lefties this season, but now have the team wRC+ up to 101 with a 114 wRC+ at home. Happ has allowed RHBs a .307 wOBA and 30.8 Hard% this season. Detroit is, in fact, the 2nd highest projection lineup tonight on our Vegas Odds page (4.92 runs). Ian Kinsler (190 wRC+, .237 ISO) and Cameron Maybin (236 wRC+, .192 ISO) have been the top bats against LHP this season. Going back to last season, everyone in this lineup has hit LHP well except Upton (59 wRC+, .101 ISO) with perhaps the top bat being J.D. Martinez (141 wRC+, .269 ISO). He has hit the ball hard 47.6% of the time he’s made contact over the last week. Despite the run projection, we might not anticipate a lot of players being on Tiger bats due to Happ’s 3.06 ERA. This is a spot where an opportunistic player can do some damage by looking beneath the surface if things go as projected.